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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 11:40 PM


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From: Athens, Ohio
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Extreme rainfall in northern Cali toward the end of the 10 day period.... 18" in 3 days.



Michael Ventrice said there's high uncertainty in this time frame because of wavebreaking... so I wouldn't be surprised to see this disappear.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288763 · Replies: · Views: 375,527

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 18 2018, 03:07 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 21,305
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 17 2018, 10:40 AM) *
Now we are talking glad you see it was starting to get worried. Im curious what happens with this strat might just be able to break it down at the end of the month. Then that will bring about possibly a rather chilly end of February into March.

I usually look at organic forecasting when there's nothing that interests me with our weather, hoping for something interesting to talk about. This is one of those times. Not looking forward to the cold... again... but at least it's something. Hopefully some snow will be associated with it.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288621 · Replies: · Views: 375,527

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 17 2018, 01:15 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
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Those saying winters over are more than likely wrong (go figure)... and it may even be a stretch to say the coldest part of the winter is over.

The same trough that brought Siberia insanely cold temps (-75 degrees; heard may have almost broke a thermometer) will move southeast and give east Asia some leftovers just as North America thaws.

Geopotential heights over Korea, Japan, China, and Mongolia suggest this may not be one of those west ridge/east trough setups. I have a hunch that this trough will set up over the central US, leaving progressively higher heights to the north and east... i.e., the greatest anomalies may be over the central US.

So, Arctic blast to begin February.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2288309 · Replies: · Views: 375,527

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 16 2018, 12:01 AM


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Half way through January now... overall, the Nina hasn't really become less anomalous since the very end of December. That kinda surprises me. The biggest development is the warming in Nino 1+2, which has been the most anomalously cool region through nearly this entire event... now it's not. How this Nina dies is important for the pattern a few months down the road

CODE
                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2287703 · Replies: · Views: 101,359

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 15 2018, 11:34 PM


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From: Athens, Ohio
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CIPS analogs have a pretty decent signal for severe weather in 6-8 days.

Percent of the 105 analogs with at least 1 severe report


Percent of the 105 analogs with at least 5 severe reports


It's this system

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2287699 · Replies: · Views: 375,527

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 02:55 AM


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Recent GFS/GEFS runs have had a 2016-17 feel to them for the west coast, for sure... wow.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2286692 · Replies: · Views: 375,527

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 14 2018, 02:02 AM


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I don't like extreme cold like what we're about to experience, but I will say... it's excellent for sleeping. smile.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2286686 · Replies: · Views: 375,527

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 13 2018, 02:27 PM


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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Jan 11 2018, 08:52 PM) *
What was the TNI trend in 2010-2011?

Started the year very negative in 2010 due to the west-based Nino... it trended toward neutral as the Nino collapsed from the east... went positive in September... very positive over the winter and spring.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2286534 · Replies: · Views: 2,333

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 11 2018, 11:38 AM


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From: Athens, Ohio
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QUOTE(TheReflex @ Jan 11 2018, 11:36 AM) *
Went from snow last night to flooding

Every little wiggle of the storm changes things

Knew last night that there would still be some wiggling to be done

Hope you guys to our west get your snow and get a big one , may as well be some happy posters in here

I'll be happy with this storm. I like anomalous weather. With this solution I get warmth, then flooding, a few inches of snow, and then the flash freeze.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2284144 · Replies: · Views: 75,402

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 11 2018, 11:35 AM


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Flood watch issued. Sweet.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2284138 · Replies: · Views: 75,402

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 11 2018, 11:31 AM


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Y'all are talking about winter weather... NWS Charleston (NWS office that covers for Athens) is talking about flooding. 1.5-2.5 inches of rain + frozen rivers + recently melted snowpack. Then we have the "flash freeze" post-front.

Fun.
QUOTE
We are becoming increasingly concerned for flooding overnight
tonight across the West Virginia Lowlands. Good upper level
divergence coupled with impressive llvl moisture advection and a
developing ssw to nne deformation band, will allow moderate
rain to quick develop this evening and continue overnight with
training a distinct possibility. The near term and global models
are rather consistent on where this axis sets up, with varying
QPF amounts within this narrow axis range from 1.5 inches to
2.5 inches (juiced up NAM). With ice still in the rivers and a
ground that is unable to soak up any rain...there is concern for
flooding issues and thus a watch is being strongly considered.
We want to see the 12Z GFS before any final decisions are made.


Here's the heavy rain banding they're talking about. Hope it moves west a little bit.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2284133 · Replies: · Views: 75,402

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 11 2018, 10:36 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
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The Trans-Nino Index for October is in and it's increased for the 3rd month in a row... now sitting around -1.6.

For TNI's similar to this reading at this time of the year, there's been instances where it substantially rises in the coming months and goes weakly negative or even positive for the severe season.

2009-10: It was even more negative than this at this time of the year, didn't go positive until late summer... but that ended up being a backloaded severe season.

1996-97: It was -1.7 in October, ended up going positive by April

Needless to say since I only listed 2 examples, most of the time when we're sitting around or less than -1.6 in October, -TNI was seen the following year. However, there were plenty of years I didn't list that went from around -1.6 to a more weakly negative TNI like -0.3 or -0.5. For reference, the "tornado drought" of 2013-16 saw -TNI around -1.6 or stronger nearly all throughout.

Note... TNI isn't a perfect teller of the tornado season, as there've been numerous years that were very active but -TNI. The research done on TNI says you're more likely to have an active tornado season with +TNI, and more likely to have a historic tornado outbreak happen in a +TNI year.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tni.data

Research: http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAP...ns/1-15/Lee.pdf
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2284083 · Replies: · Views: 2,333

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 11 2018, 12:20 AM


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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 10 2018, 11:02 PM) *

The greatest meme this board has biggrin.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2283807 · Replies: · Views: 375,527

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 11:45 PM


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QUOTE(OSUWx2 @ Jan 10 2018, 11:34 PM) *
And the streak continues...
[attachment=342821:F2762B75...4F984E32.png]

Didn't realize it's been almost 2 years. That makes me a little less salty about not getting a big storm because soon we'll join the ranks of the snow starved states such as Texas and Louisiana smile.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283798 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 10:43 PM


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I'm just laughing at the news stations that hyped up significant snowfall biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283715 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 10:38 PM


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There's more snow down the Mississippi than the previous runs. Also, there's been a trend toward less separation between the pre-frontal line of rain and the frontal precip (focus on the upper OV).

12z run -> 18z run -> 00z run


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283705 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 10:36 PM


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Trough is faster in this run, continuing the trend started at 12z.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283698 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 09:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 10 2018, 09:33 PM) *
Gotta love digital snow!

laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283569 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 09:31 PM


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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 10 2018, 09:19 PM) *
The "what could have been" storm of the year for the OV/lakes. Just 24 hrs ago the Euro had almost 2 feet for IN into NW OH/SE MI

Gotta not to bite on that when we're more than 2 days out. It's ridiculous but patience is the key. I can't believe even news stations bit on it.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2283563 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 02:13 AM


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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jan 10 2018, 01:32 AM) *
You must be spoiled 😂 I’ll take that.

Must be reverse psychology...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2282548 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 02:06 AM


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From: Athens, Ohio
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Next week looks like a great time to visit Siberia... wow. How about a low of -67 degrees Fahrenheit?


  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2282547 · Replies: · Views: 375,527

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 01:14 AM


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A little underwhelming... perhaps a portion of all that precip was sleet or ice.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2282533 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 01:09 AM


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Oooooh this is gonna be a good run for Ohio. Look at all that snow! wub.gif

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2282529 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 10 2018, 12:27 AM


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From: Athens, Ohio
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 10 2018, 12:02 AM) *
I remember when Jamie Simpson was the chief met they wouldn't talk snow amounts until a couple days out. So much for that.

Looks like Eric Elwell wrote that article. Glad it wasn't Brett Collar because I got a call from him last semester, out of the blue, saying if there's anything he can do for me, let him know. Gonna try to apply for an internship there next year, but sheesh... I'm not into twisting the truth for clicks.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2282510 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jan 9 2018, 11:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Athens, Ohio
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When WHIO posts an article saying GFS and Euro show 5"+ of snow in the Dayton area (not necessarily true), and uses a snapshot of the 18z 32km NAM because it looks scary... smile.gif yay irresponsibility.

http://www.whio.com/weather/significant-wi...Ava8hPlj2NCLoM/
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2282496 · Replies: · Views: 161,664

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