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Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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ClicheVortex2014
Rank: F5 Superstorm
24 years old
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Athens, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
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ClicheVortex2014

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19 Feb 2018
SPC has introduced a decent sized day 6 outlook.



QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Better agreement/consistency is evident at this time with respect to
various medium-range model runs through a majority of the day 4-8
period, as compared to 24 hours prior. Models in general depict
that a major short-wave trough -- digging across California and the
Great Basin day 4 (Thursday) will eject east across the Desert
Southwest/southern Rockies day 5, and then the central and southern
Plains day 6 (Saturday). While this feature is progged to
weaken/deamplify with time due to persistence of southeastern U.S.
ridging, surface lee cyclogenesis is expected over the southern High
Plains early in the day which will deepen/shift quickly
east-northeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest overnight. Ahead of
this system, low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico
should prove sufficient for at least some warm-sector CAPE
development which -- combined with what should be a favorable
background lower- and middle-tropospheric wind field -- suggests
that some severe weather risk may evolve Saturday. While degree of
instability may limit risk to some degree, ample evidence exists to
suggest initial introduction of 15% severe weather probability from
the Arklatex vicinity east across parts of the lower Mississippi and
into the Tennessee Valleys.

As the weakening upper system shifts quickly east-northeast across
the lower Great Lakes region day 7 (Sunday), expect the trailing
surface front to weaken and become oriented increasingly
west-to-east across the Gulf Coast region, suggestive of diminished
severe potential. In addition, model differences increasing through
the end of the period result in reduced confidence with respect to
the convective forecast through early next week.


12z GFS analogs (per CIPS) shows a strong signal for a severe outbreak in that region; of the 15 analogs, at least 60% have at least 1 severe report over a large area.



Here's the analog breakdown. I'd call 6 of those analogs a significant outbreak.

14 Feb 2018
The SPC has mentioned severe potential from the southern Plains to the OV. CIPS analogs (GFS and GEFS) show an active severe weather pattern is ahead.

QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0308 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper pattern will likely begin to amplify late D5/Sunday as a
strong shortwave trough digs southward through the Pacific Northwest
and into the Great Basin. Just how far south the shortwave travels
before ejecting northeastward is in question, with the amplification
likely modified by the strength of the subtropical ridging
downstream and/or the strength of jet throughout its western
periphery. At the same time, a surface low, attendant to a subtle
shortwave trough moving through the southwesterly flow aloft, will
likely move towards the Upper Great Lakes as an associated cold
front sweeps across the Plains.

Combination of increasing southwesterly flow aloft downstream of the
deepening upper trough, forcing for ascent provided by the cold
front, and a modestly moist and unstable airmass could support
severe thunderstorms early next week, particularly from east TX into
the lower OH Valley. However, forecast uncertainty currently remains
too high to outlook any areas at this time.



21 Jan 2018
Slight risk for damaging wind and tornadoes. Been a long time since there's been a severe weather event, so I'm excited to finally track some storms.


12 Nov 2017
A trough is going to swing in toward the end of this week, take a negative tilt and bomb out. GFS is showing pressure as deep as mid-970's in Michigan. The warm sector is narrow but has mid-50 dew points up to northern IN and northern OH. With how strong the wind fields are, there are going to be strong winds and high gusts throughout the day... but I think there'll be especially strong to severe winds with the frontal passage. This setup is pretty typical of HSLC (high shear low CAPE) squalls. Doubt there'll be much thunder, but I think there's just enough moisture and instability that some very strong winds will mix to the surface with the rain.

Bombogenesis: 996mb to 971mb in 24 hours. 500mb winds up to 110 MPH are pushing the system along.





29 Oct 2017
The period starts with a shortwave riding the STJ... severe weather threat in Texas. Meanwhile a western trough is dipping down and when it comes east it'll set up another round of severe weather.






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