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knorthern_knight
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knorthern_knight

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11 Apr 2018
The rain/snow/etc starts today (11th) and is still going on the 17th at the end of the GFS forecast range. It simply keeps going with hardly any breaks. Here's the output for Toronto. Don't call out the army; call out the navy!

The outputs are similar for London/Kitchener-Waterloo/Hamilton/Ottawa/Montreal. The main difference is that there is more freezing rain and pellets and snow as you head north and east.

CODE
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run: 12Z 11APR 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
    0 04/11 12Z   34     27    0.00       ****   ****    0.0
    3 04/11 15Z   40     28    0.00         40     34    0.0
    6 04/11 18Z   41     32    0.03 -RA     41     34    0.0  0.03
    9 04/11 21Z   40     34    0.02 -RA     41     40    0.0  0.05
   12 04/12 00Z   39     35    0.01 -RA     41     38    0.0  0.06
   15 04/12 03Z   36     32    0.00         38     36    0.0
   18 04/12 06Z   34     30    0.00         38     34    0.0
   21 04/12 09Z   35     31    0.00         35     34    0.0
   24 04/12 12Z   36     34    0.05 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.05
   27 04/12 15Z   38     37    0.10 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.15
   30 04/12 18Z   43     42    0.03 -RA     43     36    0.0  0.18
   33 04/12 21Z   48     45    0.08 -TSRA   48     44    0.0  0.26
   36 04/13 00Z   48     45    0.00 -RA     51     44    0.0
   39 04/13 03Z   42     38    0.00         48     42    0.0
   42 04/13 06Z   39     35    0.01 -RA     48     39    0.0  0.01
   45 04/13 09Z   36     33    0.00         39     36    0.0
   48 04/13 12Z   36     34    0.06 -RA     39     36    0.0  0.06
   51 04/13 15Z   37     35    0.07 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.13
   54 04/13 18Z   38     37    0.04 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.17
   57 04/13 21Z   38     36    0.08 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.25
   60 04/14 00Z   37     36    0.05 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.30
   63 04/14 03Z   38     36    0.09 -RA     38     38    0.0  0.39
   66 04/14 06Z   37     36    0.06 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.45
   69 04/14 09Z   37     35    0.08 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.53
   72 04/14 12Z   35     33    0.22 -RA     37     34    0.0  0.75
   75 04/14 15Z   31     29    0.11 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.86
   78 04/14 18Z   30     28    0.07 -RA     34     30    0.0  0.93
   81 04/14 21Z   29     27    0.13 -FZRN   30     28    0.0  1.06
   84 04/15 00Z   29     27    0.06 -FZRN   30     28    0.0  1.12
   87 04/15 03Z   30     28    0.01 -RA     30     29    0.0  1.13
   90 04/15 06Z   31     28    0.01 -RA     31     29    0.0  1.14
   93 04/15 09Z   31     29    0.01 -RA     31     31    0.0  1.15
   96 04/15 12Z   32     30    0.17 -RA     32     31    0.0  1.32
   99 04/15 15Z   35     34    0.38 RA      35     32    0.0  1.70
  102 04/15 18Z   36     36    0.40 RA      36     32    0.0  2.10
  105 04/15 21Z   37     37    0.29 RA      37     36    0.0  2.39
  108 04/16 00Z   42     42    0.22 RA      42     36    0.0  2.61
  111 04/16 03Z   42     41    0.12 -RA     44     41    0.0  2.73
  114 04/16 06Z   42     42    0.20 RA      44     41    0.0  2.93
  117 04/16 09Z   42     41    0.08 -RA     42     42    0.0  3.01
  120 04/16 12Z   41     40    0.00 -RA     42     41    0.0
  123 04/16 15Z   44     41    0.00         44     41    0.0
  126 04/16 18Z   44     40    0.01         44     41    0.0  0.01
  129 04/16 21Z   40     35    0.01 -RA     43     40    0.0  0.02
  132 04/17 00Z   36     30    0.00 -SN     43     36    0.0
  135 04/17 03Z   34     29    0.01 -SN     36     34    0.0  0.01
  138 04/17 06Z   34     29    0.01 -SN     36     34    0.0  0.02
  141 04/17 09Z   33     28    0.02 -SN     34     33    0.1  0.04    0.1
  144 04/17 12Z   32     27    0.02 -SN     34     32    0.1  0.06    0.2
6 Jan 2018
It looks like over a half inch of rain (12 mm+), mixed with snow-lovers' tears sad.gif , along the Quebec-Windsor corridor. Temperatures look to get into the upper 40's F, flisrting with 50. It'll probably also affect further east, but that's currently past the end of the current forecast range. Note that the GFS text forecast only goes out to 144 hours. There's more to come as it gets within range. Please don't shoot the messanger.

CODE
The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYXU Lat:   43.03 Long:   81.15
CYXU London International Airport - London, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  114 01/10 18Z   31     30    0.03 -FZRN   31     22    0.0  0.03
  117 01/10 21Z   35     35    0.04 -RA     35     31    0.0  0.07
  120 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.09
  123 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.11
  126 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.13
  129 01/11 09Z   38     38    0.12 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.25
  132 01/11 12Z   37     37    0.04 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.29
  135 01/11 15Z   39     39    0.06 -TSRA   39     37    0.0  0.35
  138 01/11 18Z   41     41    0.06 -TSRA   41     37    0.0  0.41
  141 01/11 21Z   40     40    0.14 -TSRA   42     40    0.0  0.55
  144 01/12 00Z   37     37    0.00 -RA     42     37    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYKF Lat:   43.46 Long:   80.38
CYKF Region of Waterloo International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  114 01/10 18Z   29     27    0.01 -FZRN   29     19    0.0  0.01
  117 01/10 21Z   33     33    0.02 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.03
  120 01/11 00Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     30    0.0  0.04
  123 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.05
  126 01/11 06Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.06
  129 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.07 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.13
  132 01/11 12Z   38     38    0.05 -RA     38     36    0.0  0.18
  135 01/11 15Z   40     40    0.02 -RA     40     38    0.0  0.20
  138 01/11 18Z   43     43    0.10 -RA     43     38    0.0  0.30
  141 01/11 21Z   44     44    0.13 -RA     45     43    0.0  0.43
  144 01/12 00Z   41     41    0.00 -RA     45     41    0.0

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYHM Lat:   43.16 Long:   79.93
CYHM John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  117 01/10 21Z   34     33    0.05 -RA     34     31    0.0  0.05
  120 01/11 00Z   36     36    0.02 -RA     36     31    0.0  0.07
  123 01/11 03Z   36     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.08
  126 01/11 06Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.10
  129 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.07 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.17
  132 01/11 12Z   39     39    0.03 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.20
  135 01/11 15Z   42     41    0.01 -RA     42     39    0.0  0.21
  138 01/11 18Z   47     44    0.13 -RA     46     39    0.0  0.34
  141 01/11 21Z   49     46    0.07 -TSRA   49     46    0.0  0.41
  144 01/12 00Z   41     41    0.03 -RA     49     41    0.0  0.44

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYYZ Lat:   43.66 Long:   79.63
CYYZ Toronto Pearson International Airport - Toronto, Ontario
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  117 01/10 21Z   33     31    0.01 -RA     33     30    0.0  0.01
  120 01/11 00Z   36     35    0.02 -RA     36     30    0.0  0.03
  123 01/11 03Z   37     37    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.04
  126 01/11 06Z   37     36    0.01 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.05
  129 01/11 09Z   37     37    0.05 -RA     37     37    0.0  0.10
  132 01/11 12Z   39     38    0.05 -RA     39     37    0.0  0.15
  135 01/11 15Z   41     40    0.01 -RA     41     39    0.0  0.16
  138 01/11 18Z   44     42    0.14 -RA     44     39    0.0  0.30
  141 01/11 21Z   46     44    0.05 -RA     46     44    0.0  0.35
  144 01/12 00Z   42     40    0.02 -RA     46     42    0.0  0.37

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYOW Lat:   45.31 Long:   75.66
CYOW Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  120 01/11 00Z   29     28    0.03 -PL     29     23    0.0  0.03
  123 01/11 03Z   34     34    0.05 -RA     34     29    0.0  0.08
  126 01/11 06Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     29    0.0  0.10
  129 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.01 -RA     35     35    0.0  0.11
  132 01/11 12Z   36     36    0.05 -RA     36     35    0.0  0.16
  135 01/11 15Z   36     36    0.09 -RA     36     36    0.0  0.25
  138 01/11 18Z   37     37    0.02 -RA     37     36    0.0  0.27
  141 01/11 21Z   39     39    0.20 RA      40     37    0.0  0.47
  144 01/12 00Z   41     41    0.07 -RA     41     37    0.0  0.54

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYUL Lat:   45.46 Long:   73.75
CYUL Montr�al-Pierre Elliott Trudeau International Airport - Montreal, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  123 01/11 03Z   31     29    0.01 -RA     31     26    0.0  0.01
  126 01/11 06Z   34     34    0.03 -RA     34     26    0.0  0.04
  129 01/11 09Z   35     35    0.05 -RA     35     34    0.0  0.09
  132 01/11 12Z   35     35    0.06 -RA     36     34    0.0  0.15
  135 01/11 15Z   37     37    0.11 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.26
  138 01/11 18Z   38     38    0.08 -RA     38     35    0.0  0.34
  141 01/11 21Z   38     38    0.10 -RA     38     37    0.0  0.44
  144 01/12 00Z   40     40    0.08 -RA     40     37    0.0  0.52

The following derived from http://charlie.wxcaster.com/
Station ID: CYQB Lat:   46.79 Long:   71.38
CYQB Qu�bec City Jean Lesage International Airport - Quebec City, Quebec
GFS Model Run:  0Z  6JAN 2018
==============================
   HR Valid     2m Tmp 2m Dpt TPrcp PRS WX Max    Min Snowfall
                 Deg F  Deg F  in.  TEXT   Tmp    Tmp    in
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ n_ PCPN  SNOW
  126 01/11 06Z   23     22    0.09 -SN     23     12    0.7  0.09    0.7
  129 01/11 09Z   28     27    0.06 -SN     28     23    0.4  0.15    1.1
  132 01/11 12Z   32     31    0.04 -FZRN   32     23    0.0  0.19
  135 01/11 15Z   35     35    0.02 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.21
  138 01/11 18Z   35     35    0.14 -RA     35     32    0.0  0.35
  141 01/11 21Z   37     37    0.06 -RA     37     35    0.0  0.41
  144 01/12 00Z   39     39    0.39 RA      39     35    0.0  0.80
2 Jan 2018
It's relatively easy to define synoptic storm systems. They have distinct low pressure centres and precipitation areas and they move through a limited area in a few days. The current cold outbreak is different. It's countrywide, and long-lasting depending on where you are in Canada. There'll be a break for southern Ontario in a few days. But Manitoba, central+northern Ontario, and Quebec will still see the same outbreak continuing. Is it considered 2 cold snaps (southern Ontario) or 1 cold snap (most of the rest of Canada)?

I propose more generic threads to address this problem of defining cold (and hot) outbreaks; e.g.

"Cold Wx Winter 2017-2018" and "Heat Waves 2018"

I remember a few hot early Junes, not to mention late March, April, May, and even early October. That's why I'm not sticking the word "Summer" in the proposed title. Comments?
22 Dec 2017
After the Christmas Day system, comes some cold air. Suitable for staying inside and watching the lake effect snow pile up. EC's forecasts for Ottawa on the 27th and 28th are calling for DAYTIME HIGHS of -16 C with overnight lows around -25 C. Here are a few days of FIM 12Z (7:00 AM EST) temperature maps.

Attached File  temp_2m_f144.png ( 67.33K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  temp_2m_f168.png ( 68.42K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  temp_2m_f192.png ( 66.78K ) Number of downloads: 0
17 Dec 2017
I follow the FIM temperature progs, and see the following pattern a lot in winter...

Attached File  temp_2m_f240.png ( 69.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Note the sub-zero (Fahrenheit) pink and purple areas, and the sheilding effect of the Great Lakes. Really cold air gets moderated as it passes over the Great Lakes. Given that most Arctic outbreaks come in from the NW, areas to the SE of the Lakes are shielded from the worst of the cold. Lake effect snow may look spectacular, but it comes at a price... each gram of water vapour that turns into snow releases 677 calories (2,830 Joules) as latent heat of deposition. Of course, if we get a REALLY cold winter, and the Great Lakes freeze over... watch out.
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