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PGM
Rank: F5 Superstorm
19 years old
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Northdale, London, ON
Born Mar-21-1999
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Joined: 9-February 14
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Last Seen: 19th July 2018 - 07:32 PM
Local Time: Oct 21 2018, 08:22 AM
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PGM

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20 Apr 2018
Ten days later than last year, but I can't fault anyone laugh.gif

Warm and wet summer ahead?

Attached File  summer1.gif ( 105.71K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  summer2.gif ( 103.17K ) Number of downloads: 0
12 Apr 2018
I don't believe a fire thread has ever been posted here before. Figured I might as well start one as OUN is going guns blazing with a "historic" risk tomorrow.

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Temperatures should peak near 100* later today across the OK/TX panhandle.

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More significant conditions are forecast tomorrow across central OK with a passing cold front and strong winds late day.... this could quickly spread existing fires.

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Red flag warnings are currently blanketing much of the Southwest...

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Here are the corresponding SPC outlooks. Extreme risks for both day 1&2.

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1 Jan 2018
I figured I might as well start posting personal observations on here as I don't want to flood any other threads in the Canada or main US forums. I am stretching the rules a bit - as I don't live within the U.S. There just doesn't seem to be any other places I can post personal wx discussions. I hope that is OK with everyone.
29 Nov 2017
The upcoming cold blast is looking pretty nice. Eastern trough pattern with the polar vortex split could bring even colder temperatures the following week (December 10-17). With the warm lakes, I figured this is worthy of starting a thread. Could be a major event?
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4 Sep 2017
Watches are up

QUOTE
10:51 AM EDT Monday 04 September 2017
Severe thunderstorm watch in effect for:

Rodney - Shedden - Western Elgin County
St. Thomas - Aylmer - Eastern Elgin County


Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park
Windsor - Leamington - Essex County


Sarnia - Petrolia - Western Lambton County
Watford - Pinery Park - Eastern Lambton County


London - Parkhill - Eastern Middlesex County
Strathroy - Komoka - Western Middlesex County



Conditions are favourable for the development of dangerous thunderstorms that may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

An approaching cold front is expected to trigger thunderstorms after 2 pm and into the early evening hours. The potential exists for several of these thunderstorms to produce severe weather with winds in excess of 100 km/h being the primary threat.

Very strong wind gusts can damage buildings, down trees and blow large vehicles off the road. Intense lightning is likely with any thunderstorm that develops. Remember, severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes. Lightning kills and injures Canadians every year. Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!

Severe thunderstorm watches are issued when atmospheric conditions are favourable for the development of thunderstorms that could produce one or more of the following: large hail, damaging winds, torrential rainfall.

The Office of the Fire Marshal and Emergency Management recommends that you take cover immediately if threatening weather approaches.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports using #ONStorm.

For more information:
http://www.emergencymanagementontario.ca/e...beprepared.html.


The National Weather Service has a 15% wind risk outlined up to the Canadian border.

Attached File  damagingwind1.gif ( 26.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE
...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Central
Plains...
An upper-level trough will dig quickly southeastward into the Upper
Mississippi Valley today. A broad belt of west to west-southwesterly
cyclonic flow will be in place ahead of the trough across much of
the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. At the surface, a cold front will
advance southeastward today across the central Great Lakes, upper to
mid Mississippi Valley and central Plains. A few thunderstorms
should be ongoing along the front this morning. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid to upper 60s
F by this afternoon. This combined with warming surface
temperatures should result in the development of moderate
instability. Moderate instability is expected to first develop in
the mid Mississippi Valley by late this morning and then spread
east-northeastward into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes
this afternoon. This will aid convective initiation of surface-based
thunderstorms along and just ahead of the front during the 20Z to
22Z timeframe beginning in southern Lower Michigan and far northern
Indiana. Thunderstorm coverage should expand quickly
west-southwestward along the front during the late afternoon. The
development of a linear MCS will be possible by early evening from
the Great Lakes west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley.

At mid-levels, a 70 to 80 kt jet max associated with the upper-level
trough will translate eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley.
This jet max is forecast to increase in strength as it approaches
the Slight and Enhanced risk areas. 0-6 km shear is forecast to
reach the 40 to 50 kt range along the front as convection organizes
late this afternoon. As a result, the combination of instability and
deep-layer shear will be favorable for severe thunderstorm
development. Although supercells will be possible early in the
event, the models suggest that linear development will be favored
due to low-level convergence and forced ascent along the front. This
will likely make wind damage the greatest severe weather hazard as a
line of storms moves southeastward across the region. An enhanced
risk for wind damage will be most likely from far eastern Illinois
northeastward across north-central Indiana into northwest Ohio, near
the southwestern section of a 40 to 50 kt low-level jet. Isolated
large hail may also develop with the more discrete rotating storms
that develop during the late afternoon, when instability is forecast
to be maximized. A marginal threat for hail and strong wind gusts
will be possible across southwestern Missouri and southeast Kansas
late this afternoon into this early evening.

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