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> Hurricane Irene, Archive
Bostonhurricane
post Aug 25 2011, 03:42 PM
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QUOTE(Boston Patriots @ Aug 25 2011, 04:38 PM) *
Due to the slower nature of the Hurricane, this run will have a much sharper curve once it hits say the latitude of Central NJ.


even if it comes up the coast and turns NE and hits LI/SNE, it's most likely going to be a 50-65MPH tropical storm. Cold water and the land interaction and shear will weaken her big time. Meaning nYC and SNE won't be that bad. Either way, waiting 24 hours to see what happens is the right call up here. We are still 3 days away. This has a good chance of not being a big deal for New Englanders. Especially with all the strong Noreasters we have delt with over the last year.
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SnowMan11
post Aug 25 2011, 03:42 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Aug 25 2011, 04:41 PM) *
Looks like it did take a jog NNW at hour 72. Appears to be headed right towards N NJ, west of the previous run.


Nope
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam...bTSLPp06072.gif


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sw03181
post Aug 25 2011, 03:43 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 25 2011, 04:41 PM) *
huh.gif

latest track puts me more on the east side of the eye. I'd still get rain but the wind looks more intense now.


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post Aug 25 2011, 03:43 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 04:42 PM) *
even if it comes up the coast and turns NE and hits LI/SNE, it's most likely going to be a 50-65MPH tropical storm. Cold water and the land interaction and shear will weaken her big time. Meaning nYC and SNE won't be that bad. Either way, waiting 24 hours to see what happens is the right call up here. We are still 3 days away. This has a good chance of not being a big deal for New Englanders. Especially with all the strong Noreasters we have delt with over the last year.



Why do you continue to downplay this event?
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stanb999
post Aug 25 2011, 03:43 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 03:24 PM) *
Exactly why I was saying that people in New England especially need to chill out and see whats going to happen here. A way west cane that stays over land won't be that bad and certainly no worse than a Nor Easter.



Exactly, I can see how the forecast for Irene is just like a forecast for blizzard conditions. That as we all know happen in each and every nor'easter.. Heck they are the same really.

Blizzard = 35+ MPH wind for 3 hours.

What's the forecast winds again? 50+ for the duration of Sunday over most of the northeast. With high impact areas in excess of 75... Yeah they are exactly the same. rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by stanb999: Aug 25 2011, 03:45 PM


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Weatherlover
post Aug 25 2011, 03:43 PM
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It's pretty evident just how wobbly Irene has been the past 12 hours.



http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/track...9_sat.html?MR=1

This post has been edited by Weatherlover: Aug 25 2011, 03:44 PM


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locomusic01
post Aug 25 2011, 03:44 PM
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Wow, some spotty 50+ kt winds headed onshore in Florida per GR2AE, especially near Palm Springs and Greenacres.
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supermeh
post Aug 25 2011, 03:44 PM
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At hr 75 it looks to be just east of LBI, NJ

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M
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SnowMan11
post Aug 25 2011, 03:45 PM
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NYC is getting crushed at hour 75

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFEAST_18z/wrfloop.html


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HassayWx2306
post Aug 25 2011, 03:45 PM
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Guys the AmericanWX links disable when you link them on here. you have to find a different site. I'm just saying this because im sure people are real nervous and are getting even more so when they click the link you post and they can't see it. Just remember that for future reference especially hurricanes, and winter storms.
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Boston Patriots
post Aug 25 2011, 03:45 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 04:42 PM) *
even if it comes up the coast and turns NE and hits LI/SNE, it's most likely going to be a 50-65MPH tropical storm. Cold water and the land interaction and shear will weaken her big time. Meaning nYC and SNE won't be that bad. Either way, waiting 24 hours to see what happens is the right call up here. We are still 3 days away. This has a good chance of not being a big deal for New Englanders. Especially with all the strong Noreasters we have delt with over the last year.


So far with the 18z NAM run, this storm has yet to make a landfall so it won't be losing power due to land interaction.

And I don't understand your reasoning at all with Nor' Easters. You can't compare the two. One occurs when there are NO leaves on trees. I've been saying this all week, 50 mph winds may not take a tree down in winter, but it darn well will be able to when it is full of leaves.


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SnowMan11
post Aug 25 2011, 03:45 PM
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18z Nam has a 967 low on NYC

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam...bTSLPp06078.gif


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beefytee
post Aug 25 2011, 03:45 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 25 2011, 04:43 PM) *
Why do you continue to downplay this event?

Based on the information the NOAA is giving out, I think he's in line, not downplaying.
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Mooner
post Aug 25 2011, 03:46 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Aug 25 2011, 04:24 PM) *
That's pretty neat.


Yep it is, you usually don't find webcams with sound. Conditions were a lot worse about 20 minutes ago, you could barely see anything. It's calmed down a lot now, although the surf is still very high...
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DomNH
post Aug 25 2011, 03:46 PM
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QUOTE(Bostonhurricane @ Aug 25 2011, 04:42 PM) *
even if it comes up the coast and turns NE and hits LI/SNE, it's most likely going to be a 50-65MPH tropical storm. Cold water and the land interaction and shear will weaken her big time. Meaning nYC and SNE won't be that bad. Either way, waiting 24 hours to see what happens is the right call up here. We are still 3 days away. This has a good chance of not being a big deal for New Englanders. Especially with all the strong Noreasters we have delt with over the last year.

If this comes up the coast and the only land interaction over the center is OBX and HSE, this will hit Long Island as a Cat. 1 hurricane. How often does the interior outside of Cape Cod and the Islands see 70+ mph gusts from a nor'easter?


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RickRD
post Aug 25 2011, 03:46 PM
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HR 78. NYC and LI.
967 MB.
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post Aug 25 2011, 03:46 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Aug 25 2011, 04:45 PM) *


That's the perfect spot for NYC to feel the full brunt of the storm. There are other spots, but this one is more notable.
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 25 2011, 03:46 PM
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If this isn't a NYC landfall, it has to be very close to NYC this run. Definitely a shift west from the 12z run.

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Bostonhurricane
post Aug 25 2011, 03:47 PM
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QUOTE(NYsnowlover @ Aug 25 2011, 04:43 PM) *
Why do you continue to downplay this event?


Dude , come on. I'm being a realist. What I said is absolutely possible if not likely. You want to argue that?
Fact: slower- cold water, land interaction and shear
Fact: track could still go way west which means it would be way weaker up here. Argue that?

I'm sick of people crying Armageddon 3 days before. Then, will people give their real opinion on what could really happen. Based on actual data, they cry and say we are down playing the event. It's ridiculous. Like that guy who said this is the thought process that gets people killed. Just a ridiclous comment. I was here in 96 and last year when we made preperations only to get nothing. People who make comments like this live in Pennsylvania and it's awful. I'm a realist and saying whats possibl.
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DomNH
post Aug 25 2011, 03:48 PM
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That's about the worst track for SNE...pretty much all of SNE on the east, windier, side. NYC gets heavy gusts and a ton of rain.


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