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> June 19-23 Midwest/OV/GL Heavy Rain/Severe Storms, Short-range forecasts/observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 18 2018, 11:32 PM
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A nice stationary front is going to set up generally around the I70 corridor. A low is finally gonna form in the Plains near the end of the week to move it out of here. The pattern is prime for Midwest/Corn Belt/OV rain. However, I will say, the expected amount of convection is probably going to throw some wrenches into the forecast. Debris clouds may hinder heating that would otherwise encourage storm development. On the flip side, outflow boundaries could focus/enhance storm coverage and rainfall totals.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 18 2018, 11:34 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Jun 18 2018, 11:42 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 19 2018, 12:32 AM) *
A nice stationary front is going to set up generally around the I70 corridor. A low is finally gonna form in the Plains near the end of the week to move it out of here. The pattern is prime for Midwest/Corn Belt/OV rain. However, I will say, the expected amount of convection is probably going to throw some wrenches into the forecast. Debris clouds may hinder heating that would otherwise encourage storm development. On the flip side, outflow boundaries could focus/enhance storm coverage and rainfall totals.


Local met Eric Elwell mentioned flash flood potential tomorrow(well later today now) since the storms are going to have seriously heavy rains with all this moisture in the atmosphere. Could be a fun day.


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# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 18 2018, 11:51 PM
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On that note...

"Current" PWAT


PWAT tomorrow before convection


Around 1.7-2.0 inches PWAT is typically considered tropical. Average PWAT for SW OH at this time of year is ~1.1 inches. HRRR is showing widespread 1.7"+

Another thing is the almost non-existent winds. Storms won't be moving much. Look at that hodograph laugh.gif


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 19 2018, 12:04 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Snow____
post Jun 19 2018, 06:29 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 19 2018, 12:51 AM) *
On that note...

"Current" PWAT


PWAT tomorrow before convection


Around 1.7-2.0 inches PWAT is typically considered tropical. Average PWAT for SW OH at this time of year is ~1.1 inches. HRRR is showing widespread 1.7"+

Another thing is the almost non-existent winds. Storms won't be moving much. Look at that hodograph laugh.gif

Yeah I haven’t felt a breeze since last week 😂😂. Looking forward to the rain. I love tracking heavy rain and potential flooding.


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WeatherMonger
post Jun 19 2018, 11:02 AM
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snowlover2
post Jun 19 2018, 11:32 AM
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Storms popping now in IN/OH.


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snowlover2
post Jun 19 2018, 12:57 PM
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About to get rain something fierce shortly here. Getting very dark with thunder. Radar shows i'm about to get trained. Flash flooding could be an issue.


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snowlover2
post Jun 19 2018, 01:04 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 19 2018, 01:57 PM) *
About to get rain something fierce shortly here. Getting very dark with thunder. Radar shows i'm about to get trained. Flash flooding could be an issue.

Man its pouring like crazy and winds are easily 40mph if not higher.


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Juniorrr
post Jun 19 2018, 01:12 PM
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Beautiful storm structures, intense lightning and wind. Nice inflow on the flanking edge of this stationary cell back-building towards MBY. Actually had a brief and small wall-cloud forming before being choked out.

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 19 2018, 02:56 PM
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I know this is a further west situation but those storms along the front range from wyoming into colorado is quite potent. The vort is really just punching in the region and have quite a few supercells out there dropping quarter to as high as golf ball sized hail so far. Seeing some videos of the hail covering highways again just cant even imagine what that is like. Very rarely get hail situations over here.


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Snow____
post Jun 19 2018, 03:52 PM
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Nothing down this way so far. Hotter than it was supposed to be. 93.


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KENNYP2339
post Jun 19 2018, 04:47 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 19 2018, 01:57 PM) *
About to get rain something fierce shortly here. Getting very dark with thunder. Radar shows i'm about to get trained. Flash flooding could be an issue.

can you even say that on the internet? tongue.gif
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ColoradoChinook
post Jun 19 2018, 05:44 PM
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a hail core went through my town and I didn't even get any good rain or hear a decent crack of thunder. that's so weird. I saw some decent dark skies and sheared cloud motions with the first storm - 5 miles from me. That storm dropped 1.5" hail at a place 10 mi to the north of me.

2PM (20:03z)



4PM (22:26z)


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NWOhioChaser
post Jun 20 2018, 12:18 PM
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I sure hope the rain holds off for Cuyahoga Falls tonight. Going to see Dead and Company play at Blossom with a friend and it's outdoors.
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snowlover2
post Jun 20 2018, 05:25 PM
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Local met on news said he's concerned some on Friday for possible tornadoes with a low pressure spinning over us.


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WeatherMonger
post Jun 20 2018, 06:23 PM
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snowlover2
post Jun 20 2018, 06:32 PM
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Just had a very nice torrential downpour.


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Ahoff
post Jun 20 2018, 08:07 PM
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I'm sick of this weather. It's absolutely terrible. At least once a week we get hit with inches of rain. It's killing our basement here, just seeping into it. When is this going to end, when can this darn pattern break, because this is unreal?!
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snowlover2
post Jun 21 2018, 12:57 AM
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Latest HRRR is dropping lots of rain tomorrow especially between noon and 6pm. The area of yellow just south of Dayton is 4-5" and still raining at the end of that run.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 21 2018, 01:29 AM
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When it rains tomorrow, it's gonna pour. 2.2" PWATs all across SW OH. You see this in tropical systems.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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