Arctic Sea Ice, What will happen this summer? Options

[so_whats_happeni...]

As we have noticed in past years that the Artic Sea Ice has depleted greatly during the summer months and has failed to regain to its normal status throughout the year. We have been stuck in a rather negative AO phase which tends to keep the sea ice in place and can have a building affect where in a positive phase we tend to lose some of the ice and keep the ice more thin.

Currently we are within one SD of the mean which has been relatively sustained for quite some time.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...cent.arctic.png

We are also currently seeing the AO in the positive phase but looks to quickly go back negative. If this persists what implications will it have on the melting season this year?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec..._index/ao.shtml

Will we see another record low year? Im curious to hear your thoughts and issues on the subject.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jun 21 2013, 12:47 PM

[grace]

Currently lower than: 2009, 2010, 2012

Currently above: 2007, 2008, 2011

Ice seems to be thicker than 2007 (BTW check out the snow cover comparison)


But the loss of old ice will keep the summer thaws big. I just don't see the trend halting right now. Look at the trend in the melting season.


What blows my mind more than the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice melting season is the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice. CRAZY!!! Just keeps going up:



30+ years of increase

[so_whats_happeni...]

Currently lower than: 2009, 2010, 2012

Currently above: 2007, 2008, 2011

Ice seems to be thicker than 2007 (BTW check out the snow cover comparison)



But the loss of old ice will keep the summer thaws big. I just don't see the trend halting right now. Look at the trend in the melting season.


What blows my mind more than the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice melting season is the Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice. CRAZY!!! Just keeps going up:



30+ years of increase

We will have to see how quickly the decline is this year compared to others. If we drop below 1-2SD like we have in the past then this will be another year with low ice. So far the ice has been pretty consistent this year. If we want to see the ice remain at a more constant rate rather than it melting instantly the AO will have to cooperate along a few other factors.

The south pole is real interesting. Its almost like the counter of northern sea ice to help keep the planetary balance in check. Since there has been little warmth around the globe in the mid latitudes the northern regions are experiencing and have been experiencing some rather warm temps. Once the mid latitudes get into more of a warmer pattern the artic will have its time to cool off a little and we may see the sea ice decline less rapidly. So many variables at hand but I think we will see a reversal in due time in the artic. At this point it is just a matter of when.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: May 1 2013, 11:10 AM

[kpk33x]

I'm certainly no expert but the rule of numbers implies that there would be no record set again this year.

I think the sea temps and wind have more to do with the arctic ice than anything else. The arctic variability seems to be greater than the antarctic, where the cap sits on land and doesn't move. The fact that the antarctic is on a clear upward trend gives me more confidence that there is cooling there. Meanwhile in the arctic one huge storm like last August's blowing ice around makes a huge difference in the melt. But a slight difference in the sea temps (not the air temps) could greatly affect the amount of melting.

Love the spin that is sometimes put on this topic. For instance, if the northern hemisphere ice next winter freezes all the way to the equator I'll bet the AW climate change blog will state that we have a record extent of thin, vulnerable first year ice and then in the summer state that a record area of ice melted this year if it retreats back to only 50 deg N.

Definitely seems like there is more snow cover in 2013. Some of the US plains might have add'l coverage come tomorrow's picture.

[so_whats_happeni...]

I'm certainly no expert but the rule of numbers implies that there would be no record set again this year.

I think the sea temps and wind have more to do with the arctic ice than anything else. The arctic variability seems to be greater than the antarctic, where the cap sits on land and doesn't move. The fact that the antarctic is on a clear upward trend gives me more confidence that there is cooling there. Meanwhile in the arctic one huge storm like last August's blowing ice around makes a huge difference in the melt. But a slight difference in the sea temps (not the air temps) could greatly affect the amount of melting.

Love the spin that is sometimes put on this topic. For instance, if the northern hemisphere ice next winter freezes all the way to the equator I'll bet the AW climate change blog will state that we have a record extent of thin, vulnerable first year ice and then in the summer state that a record area of ice melted this year if it retreats back to only 50 deg N.

Definitely seems like there is more snow cover in 2013. Some of the US plains might have add'l coverage come tomorrow's picture.

The reason why the antartic experiences less variability is yes due to the ice being mostly over land but also due to the circumpolar vortex being much stronger around the antartic then that at the north pole you can thank land masses and mountains for that but with out there really would not be much weather. Winds are key in figuring out what will happen with the ice. Temperatures vary not too much off the average which reaches slightly at or above 0C. If we can get things to set up just right we will have a better outcome for future ice growths and decline. While it may not happen this year within the next 2years we will start to see differences in the sea ice and affects we will have.

[grace]

It's not just the temps, wind, etc. While these are huge players the loss of old, thick ice is why ice free waters are emerging more quickly. Even if ideal melting conditions do not develop I think we may still see another record simply because last year's melt as far as volume was huge. It wasn't just the temps. The very rare renegade cyclone that occurred either in late summer or early fall really broke up a lot of the better ice left. That storm was a doozy & really devastated some of the ice which has also set us up for what I think will be another record year. Ice that is only a foot thick melts a lot faster than ice that is 2ft thick.

This is very tellling:

So many variables at hand but I think we will see a reversal in due time in the artic. At this point it is just a matter of when.

I agree that overtime it will reverse but it will be a VERY slow process. The melt has been a very slow process & reversing it will be too.

[so_whats_happeni...]

It's not just the temps, wind, etc. While these are huge players the loss of old, thick ice is why ice free waters are emerging more quickly. Even if ideal melting conditions do not develop I think we may still see another record simply because last year's melt as far as volume was huge. It wasn't just the temps. The very rare renegade cyclone that occurred either in late summer or early fall really broke up a lot of the better ice left. That storm was a doozy & really devastated some of the ice which has also set us up for what I think will be another record year. Ice that is only a foot thick melts a lot faster than ice that is 2ft thick.

This is very tellling:





I agree that overtime it will reverse but it will be a VERY slow process. The melt has been a very slow process & reversing it will be too.

Do you happen to have a picture of that from last year that would be interesting to compare. Also nice graphic ill have to log that site in my bookmarks.

[grace]

Do you happen to have a picture of that from last year that would be interesting to compare. Also nice graphic ill have to log that site in my bookmarks.

I just now saw your post. I'll try to look it up. It would be very interesting to compare this time last year.

EDIT: Here's a 365 day animation. If you look at the first image you'll notice there was a lot more old thick ice by comparing the reds to the reds on the last image.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/na...st_anim365d.gif

This post has been edited by grace: May 4 2013, 10:35 AM

[grace]

Minimum animation from 1979-2012
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice_animation.html

Maximum animation 1979-2012
http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice_animation_max.html

[so_whats_happeni...]

Currently still showing signs of slow or slower rate of decrease then what we have seen in the past few years. We will have to see how the rest of the summer goes. If we continue in the pattern we are in we may get a season within 1 SD of the average.

Currently not seeing anything crazy happening very transient and flat pattern. The transition into fall this year will have to watched carefully. It may be a wild one.

[idecline]

To SWH ^^^^

Just a quick note:

It would be a good idea to spell the name as "Arctic" not "Artic" (sic) as your thread title states:

Just go to your first post and modify the Banner....thx

[so_whats_happeni...]

To SWH ^^^^

Just a quick note:

It would be a good idea to spell the name as "Arctic" not "Artic" (sic) as your thread title states:

Just go to your first post and modify the Banner....thx

Forgive my misspelling sad thing is I knew it was that and still put artic. lol ill change it in the title but everywhere else will have to stay the same not enough time to change everything. Thanks

[NorEaster07]

Arctic ice extent is the highest for the date in at least 12 years.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/05...s-12-year-high/


 snow44.jpg ( 218.79K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: May 30 2013, 02:03 PM

[grace]

Arctic ice extent is the highest for the date in at least 12 years.

http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/05...s-12-year-high/
 snow44.jpg ( 218.79K ) Number of downloads: 2

I would love to see the melting season be far less this summer just to avoid all the headlines.

However, last years melt was very slow in the beginning but the thinness of the ice was to easy to overcome later....especially with that rare cyclone. One important thing to note is that two years in a row the melt is very slow in progression compared to the previous 10 yrs. It could be the sign of a very slow recovery year by year taking place in the arctic which could accelerate when AMO switches to negative phase as some hypothesize.

Either way it will take many years of smaller & smaller melt seasons to increase volume. Until then a lot of water will continue to get exposed late in the melt seasons with all the thin ice.

This post has been edited by grace: May 30 2013, 05:36 PM

[so_whats_happeni...]

I would love to see the melting season be far less this summer just to avoid all the headlines.

However, last years melt was very slow in the beginning but the thinness of the ice was to easy to overcome later....especially with that rare cyclone. One important thing to note is that two years in a row the melt is very slow in progression compared to the previous 10 yrs. It could be the sign of a very slow recovery year by year taking place in the arctic which could accelerate when AMO switches to negative phase as some hypothesize.

Either way it will take many years of smaller & smaller melt seasons to increase volume. Until then a lot of water will continue to get exposed late in the melt seasons with all the thin ice.

The ball dropped around mid july to early august in the past years. That is when a summer time storm (quite strong) invaded the arctic and caused the already fragile ice to be destroyed. For now we shall see the decline at this rate but by beginning of july many should keep an eye and see if we get rapid depletion.

[NorEaster07]

Arctic Ice now near 1990s Average.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent...ce_Extent_L.png

 snow45.jpg ( 243.41K ) Number of downloads: 1

[kpk33x]

Arctic Ice now near 1990s Average.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent...ce_Extent_L.png

 snow45.jpg ( 243.41K ) Number of downloads: 1

Very interesting to see that 2013 started with the lowest amount in the last 12 years and is now the most. Bears watching through the summer.

[idecline]

Very interesting to see that 2013 started with the lowest amount in the last 12 years and is now the most. Bears watching through the summer.

It has been a very cold Spring....once the Northern Hemisphere heats up the ice will decline...it is too thin to last...

[so_whats_happeni...]

It has been a very cold Spring....once the Northern Hemisphere heats up the ice will decline...it is too thin to last...

It has been a cold spring for much of the mid latitude areas around the world and some select areas such as alaska for one instance. Overall the arctic according to this from measuring 80N to the pole shows that temps as a whole have been above average for the majority of spring.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Im guessing at this point, but since we had such a negative AO back in late winter and early spring that this could be the after affects of such a deep AO and now that we have equalized out overall we are starting to slowly heat up much of the mid latitudes. I wonder what will happen from here since past seasons featured a spike right around this time in temperatures and then by mid july and august it levels out.

Overall this year at this time compared to last year shows quite a difference in the density of the ice sheet.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=29&sy=2013

I believe we are in a slow recovery stage. Do not get me wrong I do believe there will still be significant ice melt probably bottoming out at just above the 2007 levels probably following very close to the 2009 levels, we will see of course. I do believe we will be able to grow more thicker ice sheet rather than expand the amount of ice coverage.

Just some ideas I was thinking.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jun 1 2013, 01:35 AM

[grace]

Very thin!! If it gets rolling then it will free fall. Extent is good but the volume is very, very shaky.

This will continue to lead to big melt seasons. It will take several very low melt years to make any recovery at all in volume. It would take 100 yrs of very cold weather to get a 1/3 of the volume back that has been lost the last 30yrs.