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> ENSO Alert System: El Nino! for 2015/16 has ended..., All 'El Nino's' are not the same... :-) (you can say that
The Snowman
post Mar 23 2014, 09:44 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 23 2014, 07:37 PM) *
I feel this plot really shows how the Kelvin waves have been progressively getting stronger.
Depth anomaly off 20°C isotherm at the equator
[attachment=233434:wkd20eq2_anm.gif]
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...kd20eq2_anm.gif
There is a huge mass of warm water, apparently approaching +6°C, lurking, and perhaps already surfacing around 150W and close to south America.
[attachment=233435:wkteq_xz.gif]
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...10/wkteq_xz.gif

Yep, almost as if one could predict the strength of the oncoming KW based on strength of the preceding downwelling episode.

This Kelvin Wave is of historic strength, clocking in at roughly +5.64º C above normal as of March 20th. It was at +5.35º C on March 13th, marking a +0.29º C change in just 7 days. Even more concerning is the push to the surface, and how the KW continues to strengthen. As we look to see westerly winds continue from the western Pacific, I have little doubt we'll see an El Nino be declared in the next 4-10 weeks.


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idecline
post Mar 26 2014, 04:41 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 23 2014, 09:44 PM) *
Yep, almost as if one could predict the strength of the oncoming KW based on strength of the preceding downwelling episode.

This Kelvin Wave is of historic strength, clocking in at roughly +5.64º C above normal as of March 20th. It was at +5.35º C on March 13th, marking a +0.29º C change in just 7 days. Even more concerning is the push to the surface, and how the KW continues to strengthen. As we look to see westerly winds continue from the western Pacific, I have little doubt we'll see an El Nino be declared in the next 4-10 weeks.


A very strong Kelvin Wave indeed...and the SOI is diving down...that KW should crest soon and hopefully displace the anomalously cold water that is hunkered in along the South American coast.
Attached File  iso20_wind_anom_5day.gif ( 20.47K ) Number of downloads: 0


The winds and the KW are playing a tune...and it sounds like 'El Nino'...

Temperatures as of Mar. 24 from CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (updated every Monday)

Attached File  nino_regions.gif ( 110.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


REGION: Nino 4 : 0.6C .... Nino 3.4 : 0.1C .... Nino 3 : 0.1C ...Nino 1+ 2 : -1.2C

So the KW has wiped out all of the previous SST negative anomalies except for the Coastal Zone.
If this wave can cause the thermocline to crash this should immediately force the upwelling along the coast to subside and the wave can 'break' along the shores sending warmer anomalous waters both North and South of the Equator.

As to the Bolded: The interesting thing is that from what I've read it seems the ENSO phenomenon operates on a kind of 'delayed oscillator' type of pattern...when a Kelvin wave strikes the South American Coast it actually generates a slower sub-surface Rossby wave which unencumbered by the Coriolis force spreads westwards back towards the Western Pacific basin.
Also KW can be upwelling or downwelling events..and I believe the 2012 temperature rises were squelched by continued effects of what had been a very Strong and persistent La Nina with help from a cold PDO regime..
Now we are seeing the last stronghold of the very cold waters confined to the South American coast...

p.s.: The 'Official' El Nino designation cannot be made until the ONI index ( SST departures in the Enso 3.4 region) has been above 0.5C for 5 consecutive 3-month means.

i.e.- Even if April temperatures in the Enso 3.4 region are above 0.5C it would take until October until the CPC would/could 'Officially' declare an El Nino...well beyond the actual probable onset of the warm/El Nino event...
NOAA/NCEP/CPC does not take 'declaring' an 'El Nino' lightly, and their system ensures that the 'declaration' is after the fact... wink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 26 2014, 07:37 AM


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“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
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MaineJay
post Mar 26 2014, 05:00 AM
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Nice write up idecline, I hope people are paying attention to the possible severity of this event.

Courtesy of Australia's Bureau of Meteorology

Nino 3
Attached File  nino3_1.png ( 14.23K ) Number of downloads: 0

Nino 3.4
Attached File  nino3_4_1.png ( 13.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

Nino 4
Attached File  nino4_1.png ( 13.13K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml

Heat content anomaly
Attached File  movie.h300.gif ( 1.54MB ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODA.../movie.h300.gif

Sea level anomaly
Attached File  movie.sl.gif ( 1.61MB ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODA...xy/movie.sl.gif

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 26 2014, 06:50 PM


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The Snowman
post Mar 26 2014, 09:03 AM
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Our Kelvin Wave has continued to warm up from +5.64 degrees C above normal to +5.85 degrees C above normal, a +0.21 degree increase in just four days. That makes for a +0.50 degree C increase in the last 11 days.

Edit: That +5.85 degree C anomaly was recorded on March 24, so all increases in __ days are from that date.

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Mar 26 2014, 09:05 AM


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2012-2013: 37''


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WEATHERFREAK
post Mar 28 2014, 12:02 PM
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Wo Mama!!!



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MaineJay
post Mar 28 2014, 04:44 PM
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Monday's update should be interesting
Attached File  heat_last_year.gif ( 6.4K ) Number of downloads: 3

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...t-last-year.gif


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Chambana
post Mar 28 2014, 08:42 PM
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Wonder how long it is before we go into full blown El nino. I say around June-July.

This post has been edited by Chambana: Mar 28 2014, 08:46 PM
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jdrenken
post Mar 29 2014, 09:33 AM
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Don't forget the TAO page ladies and gentlemen! Their 'Animation' link is awesome!



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andyhb
post Mar 29 2014, 02:41 PM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Mar 28 2014, 06:42 PM) *
Wonder how long it is before we go into full blown El nino. I say around June-July.

Earlier than that if this continues.
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The Snowman
post Mar 29 2014, 04:53 PM
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The Kelvin Wave is now at a maximum strength of +6.31º C above normal (as of March 27), a full +0.49º C increase from just 3 days ago (which was March 24). The next update is expected tomorrow, March 30th.

Note, this KW is now the strongest ever recorded in the satellite era.


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2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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Chambana
post Mar 29 2014, 05:57 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 29 2014, 04:53 PM) *
The Kelvin Wave is now at a maximum strength of +6.31º C above normal (as of March 27), a full +0.49º C increase from just 3 days ago (which was March 24). The next update is expected tomorrow, March 30th.

Note, this KW is now the strongest ever recorded in the satellite era.


Incredible. This now beats 1997 KW. Odds are becoming favorable for a potent el nino event.
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idecline
post Mar 31 2014, 01:38 AM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Mar 28 2014, 08:42 PM) *
Wonder how long it is before we go into full blown El nino. I say around June-July.


From my previous post: rolleyes.gif

QUOTE
p.s.: The 'Official' El Nino designation cannot be made until the ONI index ( SST departures in the Enso 3.4 region) has been above 0.5C for 5 consecutive 3-month means.

i.e.- Even if April temperatures in the Enso 3.4 region are above 0.5C it would take until October until the CPC would/could 'Officially' declare an El Nino...well beyond the actual probable onset of the warm/El Nino event...
NOAA/NCEP/CPC does not take 'declaring' an 'El Nino' lightly, and their system ensures that the 'declaration' is after the fact... wink.gif



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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

"I regard consciousness as fundamental. I regard matter as derivative from consciousness. We cannot get behind consciousness. Everything that we talk about, everything that we regard as existing, postulates consciousness." - Max Planck

“Alice laughed. “There’s no use trying,” she said: “one can’t believe impossible things.” “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was your age, I always did it for half-an-hour a day. Why sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” —Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking Glass”
― Bruce Rosenblum, Quantum Enigma: Physics Encounters Consciousness
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MaineJay
post Mar 31 2014, 10:37 AM
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SOI index at -12.3
Attached File  soi30_1.png ( 14.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png

Increases in all 4 Nino regions
Attached File  ssta_c_2.gif ( 35.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...date/ssta_c.gif


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MaineJay
post Mar 31 2014, 03:32 PM
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Some model forecasts from Australia's Bureau of Meteorology

April
Attached File  nino_summary_2.png ( 31.8K ) Number of downloads: 0

June
Attached File  nino_summary_4.png ( 31.93K ) Number of downloads: 0

August
Attached File  nino_summary_6.png ( 31K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-...s=Pacific-Ocean


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The Snowman
post Mar 31 2014, 07:39 PM
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The Kelvin wave has hit a brick wall. Fresh update from BOM puts warmth at +6.35 C, was +6.31 C four days ago. Big slowdown in warming, considering Mar. 24-27 saw +0.49 C rise.

Latest map shown below, next update expected April 2nd or 3rd.



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2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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MaineJay
post Apr 3 2014, 05:05 PM
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SOI continues to stay below -8, currently at -13.2.
Attached File  soi30_2.png ( 14.87K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/soi30.png

Sea surface anomalies courtesy of Australia's BoM.
Attached File  IDYOC054.gif ( 27.49K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDYOC054.shtml
That cold water between the Galapagos and Peru/Ecuador appears to be shrinking.

Add the PDO for fun

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 3 2014, 06:27 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  pdo_fig1.png ( 39.94K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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MaineJay
post Apr 4 2014, 06:16 PM
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Still warming

Attached File  heat_last_year_1.gif ( 6.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...t-last-year.gif

Sorry, I couldn't help myself
Attached File  o_CHRIS_FARLEY_EL_NINO_570.jpg ( 40.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


R.I.P. Chris Farley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkSRUf02gu8

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 4 2014, 06:17 PM


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The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

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SnowMan11
post Apr 5 2014, 10:02 AM
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EL Nino is developing


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jdrenken
post Apr 5 2014, 10:24 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 4 2014, 06:16 PM) *
Still warming

Attached File  heat_last_year_1.gif ( 6.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...t-last-year.gif

Sorry, I couldn't help myself
Attached File  o_CHRIS_FARLEY_EL_NINO_570.jpg ( 40.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


R.I.P. Chris Farley
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkSRUf02gu8



+1


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blizzardOf96
post Apr 6 2014, 05:15 PM
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Easterlies are in charge for a bit as the MJO is over the maritime continent with nice CCKW coupling along with +SOI values showing up in the dailies. We should begin to see another WWB between ~4/20-5/1 as tropical forcing allow's the downwelling OKW to move up to the surface. From that point on, the floodgates open for major warming.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Apr 6 2014, 05:15 PM


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