Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID Options

[OSNW3]

Let's begin with last years (8/1/13-7/31/14) dominant components.

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75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15

Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up much. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic can prove to be solid guidance as we know the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak.

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Below is the average of each component 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.

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What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (8/31/14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.

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With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 to find the LRC and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics.

But, I haven't looked at maps, anyone seeing this 58-60 or 74-76 day connection? Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Oct 19 2017, 12:14 PM

[jdrenken]

I finally was able to upload the interview from 19AUG14 on the KOPN Freedom Forum radio show.

[WeatherMonger]

So the system upcoming midweek, would you consider this a part of the 13/14 or 14/15 cycle.

[The Snowman]

Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?

[attachment=238938:IMG_2014...7_194842.jpg]

Gnarly.

Will be intriguing to watch for a corresponding TR signal comes up down the road, should this forecast verify.

[grace]

Gnarly.

Will be intriguing to watch for a corresponding TR signal comes up down the road, should this forecast verify.

That may cool the N Pacific temporarily a little.

[ohiobuckeye45]

Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?

[attachment=238938:IMG_2014...7_194842.jpg]

Is this the correlation to a trough in the east 6 weeks later?

[The Snowman]

That may cool the N Pacific temporarily a little.

We'll have to see if the storm ends up as strong as projected. If it stays in the Pacific, as the ECMWF seems to indicate after the 120hr image, the NE PAC/GOA shouldn't be affected too much. But yes, certainly something to watch.

[The Snowman]

Is this the correlation to a trough in the east 6 weeks later?

The Bering Sea Rule correlates to weather in the US 2.5-3 weeks later.

[jdrenken]

We'll have to see if the storm ends up as strong as projected. If it stays in the Pacific, as the ECMWF seems to indicate after the 120hr image, the NE PAC/GOA shouldn't be affected too much. But yes, certainly something to watch.

WPC has it at 972mb in North Central Bering Sea.

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[ohiobuckeye45]

The Bering Sea Rule correlates to weather in the US 2.5-3 weeks later.

potato pototo Not sure where I was getting 6 weeks.....I thought that sounded alittle off in my head

[WeatherMonger]

Agreed. I am betting it will resemble something like the last 5 days of July. ~60 day harmonic puts it down the last 5 days of September. We shall see.

That was a pretty big moderate risk bust weekend(end of July). Be interesting to see what will happen

[hbgweather]

The late ISM surge will help reconfigure the current mid-latitude long-term longwave pattern in the NH.

please specify to us weather weenie rookies. Thanks.

[The Snowman]

The two raob stations that are often used in data analysis for the BSR are SHEMYA ISLAND AFB AK US and SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL AP MO US. A quick correlation run of the two for the time period I referenced yielded a 0.50072 correlation with a 22 day BSR.

[attachment=238963:bsr1.png]

Relating maps is fun too. BSR maps, CONUS maps.

For what it is worth. Today's dominant recurring Rossby components are 17-20 and 33-35 days. 18, 34, 20, 19 days being the top 4. The 3rd harmonic (some like to call it the LRC) would be 54-60 days based on the frequency of 18-20 days.

I'd bet money you could make a private forecasting company with all the stuff you've got there. Fantastic work as always.

[MaineJay]

I'm hoping to follow this thread much more carefully and learn more about what you are doing. It's wicked interesting, and just wanted to extend a thanks for all your efforts.

Guitar strings work in a similar way, however the forcing is not at the end, but along the string. It made me think, thicker and/or looser strings vibrate at lower frequencies and higher amplitude, and thinner/tighter ones at higher frequencies/ low amp, does the jet stream exhibit similar tendencies? I.e. a slow, broad jets more sinuous than a tight, fast regime?

Sorry if this is all just nonsense. Keep up the good work!

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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Sep 9 2014, 06:07 AM

[hbgweather]

so from what I'm understanding is this is the whole cause to the change in the LRC come October. Going from one pattern to the next needs that kick of new energy to change up the wave lengths.?

[hbgweather]

It is one idea. Still seeking the ultimate truth.

As for the LRC, it is difficult to say what Lezak thinks causes his cycle change. In all the years I have been around it I don't think he has ever stated a cause for the effect. Don't confuse the LRC with what we are really studying here. This goes beyond the magic.

Fully understand not confusing the LRC with a new cycle. Just to me, since I know basically nothing about these events, it seemed to coincide with one another since the new cycle for the year begins around October and the monsoon is before these changes. The monsoon is late this year correct? Would that mean the new cycle will begin late? It appears the monsoon also packs quite a punch. I know its hard to explain things to people who enjoy learning weather as a hobby rather than following its exact science. I have more questions than answers and suck at math. Therefor I'm limited in my basic knowledge of weather. I'm going to try and follow this time around with the cycles.

[Undertakerson]

This isn't a "new cycle", I believe we are just calling it what it really is and backing our findings with science and data. The ideas have been around for quite sometime and are used daily. If anything is different than what is already out there, it could be our application to long term forecasting. I will give credit where credit is due, in my mind the LRC exists as a 3rd or 4th harmonic of the overall wave. And now that I am thinking about it, I believe GL does explain how his cycle forms. Don't quote me on this...

[attachment=239003:lrc003.png]

From the origin post

With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season

I too took that to mean that the pattern re-establishes itself (but does it do so, exactly) and is, therefore, new. In much the same way a flowing river is always "new" - never static or entirely predictable.

I guess I only mean to ask for clarification. I find this thread deeply interesting and wish to follow along better.

[jdrenken]

My latest...

Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

We have a strong system moving into Manchuria on September 14th which pumps up a ridge in the few days prior. This translates to the 21st of September for Central Missouri. Immediately following is a trough that last from September 15th through the 18th with zonal flow between the 18th and 20th of September. So…look for Central Missouri to experience below normal temperatures from the 22nd into the 25th with a moderating trend. Then, we have yet another “Manchurian candidate” on the 24th that pumps up an even stronger ridge until the 26th. This means the beginning of October will be well above normal.

We are seeing a common theme from the Bering Sea in a ‘ridge west-trough east’ configuration during the period and continuing until the 18th of September. Central Missouri will once again be in the battle zone as the correlation will have us on the back side of the trough and the systems come down the pipe. Ridging will take place between the 18th and 23rd of September until another impressive trough takes over the Bering Sea. This series will mean we experience warming between the 9th and 14th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

[ohiobuckeye45]

Constructive criticism. I think you need to create some sort of visualization for your forecasts. It is difficult to interpret the words as you "see" it. Show maps of what you see in the BSR/TR regions and then maps of temp/pcpn departures in the COMO region. Or something. Charts are cool too.

this would be pretty cool....time allowing. Wouldnt even have to be anything more than a paint doc. Look at Brett A ECM monthly interprutation maps

[jdrenken]

I am certain I just overheard TWC mention the storm in GOA and then say it translates to a trough in the East.

In the short term...yes as it forces a ridge over the Rockies and West Coast.