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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
WeatherMonger
post Mar 30 2017, 03:13 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 30 2017, 01:51 PM) *
An insignificant signal from the Southern Oscillation Index daily delta connecting contiguous United States H5 anomaly for April 8-18.


Started reading that and realized it was Marvin the Martian's voice in my head laugh.gif

Attached File  3b5aae008d03cd696a77ad995a23ce03.jpg ( 107.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

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OSNW3
post Mar 31 2017, 11:30 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 30 2017, 02:13 PM) *
Started reading that and realized it was Marvin the Martian's voice in my head laugh.gif

Attached File  3b5aae008d03cd696a77ad995a23ce03.jpg ( 107.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


I am not angry, just terribly, terribly hurt. wink.gif


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Undertakerson
post Apr 1 2017, 06:38 AM
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I think the GFS, having support of the BSR, is trying to make my Opening Day of PA Trout Season - into another one where snow is flying in my face as I (nymph) fly fish renowned Penn's Creek dry.gif

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png ( 184.62K ) Number of downloads: 2
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OSNW3
post Apr 1 2017, 07:56 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 1 2017, 05:38 AM) *
I think the GFS, having support of the BSR, is trying to make my Opening Day of PA Trout Season - into another one where snow is flying in my face as I (nymph) fly fish renowned Penn's Creek dry.gif

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png ( 184.62K ) Number of downloads: 2


That hurricane force storm in Mexico is substantial.




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PoconoSnow
post Apr 1 2017, 09:48 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 1 2017, 08:56 AM) *
That hurricane force storm in Mexico is substantial.



Would possibly act as a moisture pump?


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OSNW3
post Apr 1 2017, 01:17 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Apr 1 2017, 08:48 AM) *
Would possibly act as a moisture pump?


Potential GOM mischief April 16-21. I suppose that could translate to a moisture supply.







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WeatherMonger
post Apr 2 2017, 12:07 PM
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Anything aroynd 35/36'ish days for the cycling?

1/21

Attached File  170121_rpts.gif ( 16.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


1/22

Attached File  170122_rpts.gif ( 16.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


2/28

Attached File  170228_rpts.gif ( 17.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


3/1

Attached File  170301_rpts.gif ( 17.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


4/2(yet to unfold)

Attached File  day1otlk_1630__7_.gif ( 29.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


4/3(yet to unfold)

Attached File  day2otlk_0600__1_.gif ( 28.65K ) Number of downloads: 0

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OSNW3
post Apr 3 2017, 09:38 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 2 2017, 11:07 AM) *
Anything aroynd 35/36'ish days for the cycling?

1/21

Attached File  170121_rpts.gif ( 16.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


1/22

Attached File  170122_rpts.gif ( 16.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


2/28

Attached File  170228_rpts.gif ( 17.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


3/1

Attached File  170301_rpts.gif ( 17.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


4/2(yet to unfold)

Attached File  day1otlk_1630__7_.gif ( 29.77K ) Number of downloads: 0


4/3(yet to unfold)

Attached File  day2otlk_0600__1_.gif ( 28.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Yes. See black boxes in images below. http://www.organicforecasting.com/rrwt-for6.html

Attached File  harmonic7.gif ( 50.42K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  harmonic8.gif ( 39.37K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by OSNW3: Apr 3 2017, 09:42 AM


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OSNW3
post Apr 3 2017, 09:41 AM
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Interesting weather as March comes to an end.

https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/839505196401176581

Above 21-25d nailed the elevated Lifted Index over the deep south 3/28-4/2.


Through ~4/3 in below 21-25d outlooks.


https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/848722512427048960

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Apr 3 2017, 09:41 AM


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OSNW3
post Apr 3 2017, 09:49 AM
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GFS painting a similar spatial plot in regard to areas of higher precipitation totals for the period. The RRWT baseline forecast plot (right side image) in image below is for the Rodeo preseason week 1, Week 3&4 April 4-17. Forecast generated on 3/21. A few hits, a few misses, overall not too bad. We shall see how it correlates once the time frame has passed. This Rodeo is fun stuff. Right up my alley. Officiated competition.



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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 6 2017, 01:04 AM
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Massive west trough/east ridge coming up around the 19th?





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OSNW3
post Apr 6 2017, 08:49 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 6 2017, 12:04 AM) *
Massive west trough/east ridge coming up around the 19th?





Nice. According to your EAR reference the RRWT R+1 and R+2 blend (left image) will not verify.

Attached File  170326150110.jpg ( 282.28K ) Number of downloads: 3


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OSNW3
post Apr 8 2017, 08:04 AM
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Finding harmony in the pandemonium that is our atmosphere. Alternation in high frequency mode since mid February.



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OSNW3
post Apr 9 2017, 02:17 PM
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Late Winter systems pack quality Lifted Index signals. A 21-25d Lifted Index anomaly from 3/19 for 4/9-13. R+1, rA OP consistent with SPC.






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jdrenken
post Apr 9 2017, 09:47 PM
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A mere 34 days...

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Attached File  170306_rpts_filtered.gif ( 17.81K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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MaineJay
post Apr 14 2017, 05:59 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 30 2017, 02:51 PM) *
An insignificant signal from the Southern Oscillation Index daily delta connecting contiguous United States H5 anomaly for April 8-18.




SOI is a bit more interesting lately

Attached File  Screenshot_20170414_064733.jpg ( 101.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


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OSNW3
post Apr 14 2017, 09:51 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 14 2017, 05:59 AM) *
SOI is a bit more interesting lately

Attached File  Screenshot_20170414_064733.jpg ( 101.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


What will it do?
Attached File  Untitled_1.png ( 125.12K ) Number of downloads: 1


In regard to a recurring atmos nature, R+2 shows climo like activity, while rA and R+1 show a void.
Attached File  us_lf_s__1_.jpg ( 611.27K ) Number of downloads: 2


We shall see.


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OSNW3
post Apr 14 2017, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 14 2017, 09:51 AM) *
What will it do?
Attached File  Untitled_1.png ( 125.12K ) Number of downloads: 1


In regard to a recurring atmos nature, R+2 shows climo like activity, while rA and R+1 show a void.
Attached File  us_lf_s__1_.jpg ( 611.27K ) Number of downloads: 2


We shall see.


In a nerdy recurring high frequency mode sort of way, the #chasecation2017 folk should like the rA and R+1 solutions. High Plain Drifters.


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OSNW3
post Apr 15 2017, 09:09 AM
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Verification. The 21-25d Lifted Index projection from 3/19 for 4/9-13 (right side) accompanied with SPC storm reports (left side).



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jdrenken
post Apr 15 2017, 01:34 PM
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February Verification


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