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> 2016-17 La Nina Watch, Long-range Forecasts and Observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 10 2015, 11:02 PM
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History has shown that, after a strong Nino, a La Nina has always followed immediately behind it. All the seasonal models are showing a quick transition to La Nina in late spring through the summer of 2016. So, with JD's approval already received, this'll be the thread for the La Nina of 2016-17.

I'll start the thread with some current observations/data. Here's some history on the top 4 strongest Ninos (excluding this one), and the ENSO pattern that followed them.



Based on Region 3.4 alone, this Nino is the strongest on record now. But if you use ONI, this is the 3rd strongest, probably gonna take the #2 spot when all is said and done.

On to some real data... there are some quite cool waters below the surface on the equator, which was present in a very similar way in 1997-98 so far.




It's too early to say anything about the strength of the Nina, other than it appears likely. The subsurface will need to be monitored.

One big consequence of this Nina is going to be a big ramp up of the severe season and tornado season. It's well documented that Ninas favor this... particularly the stronger ones. If you look at the first image I posted, 3 out of 4 of the Nina severe seasons (1974, 1999, 2011) had very significant, historic severe weather events. Each of these years saw at least a moderate Nina.

In 1974, we had the original Super Outbreak. In 1999, tornado activity spiked and there was the infamous Bridge Creek F5 tornado that had measured 300+ MPH winds. Then in 2011, we had the other Super Outbreak, the Joplin tornado, and a stunning tornado season in general.

So watch for 2017 to be a big severe weather and tornado year.

The next post will contain some seasonal models

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 10 2015, 11:17 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 10 2015, 11:05 PM
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JAMSTEC (November update) has the Nina emerging as early as next summer. Its 2 year forecast suggests this will also be a moderate Nina.




JAMSTEC's November update in 2009 had a high-end weak Nina forming in 2011. So it underestimated its strength by 2 fold.



CFS has a more gradual downfall of the 2015-16 Super Nino compared to JAMSTEC... but its downfall is more similar to 1997-98, being a classic west-to-east collapse of the Nino, and presumably, a west-to-east buildup of the Nina. We're currently too far out to see the CFS build up the Nina.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 10 2015, 11:16 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Dec 11 2015, 12:01 AM
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I knew this thread was coming from you sooner or later...lol. I'm ready for a dang La Nina! El Nino can kiss my rear. smile.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 11 2015, 12:12 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 11 2015, 12:01 AM) *
I knew this thread was coming from you sooner or later...lol. I'm ready for a dang La Nina! El Nino can kiss my rear. smile.gif

Counting down the days 'til I find it appropriate to make the Spring thread wink.gif

Joking...


...kinda...

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 11 2015, 12:16 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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andyhb
post Dec 11 2015, 12:33 AM
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Bring it on.

CANSIPS (for April to Dec 2016), CA SST (from Jan to Dec 2016) and NMME (from Jan to July 2016) SSTA forecast loops.





This post has been edited by andyhb: Dec 11 2015, 12:34 AM
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PoconoSnow
post Dec 11 2015, 12:40 AM
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"Cool" thread... laugh.gif rolleyes.gif

Anyway I should add something other than an awful pun.

Scripps forecast has a moderate niña by SON


Here are modeled region 3.4 anomalies
CODE
NDJ    2015/2016    2.46
DJF    2015/2016    2.35
JFM    2016    2.07
FMA    2016    1.66
MAM    2016    1.10
AMJ    2016    0.47
MJJ    2016    -0.14
JJA    2016    -0.69
JAS    2016    -1.21

Negative anoms by MJJ


http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html


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jdrenken
post Dec 11 2015, 12:49 AM
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History shows that whenever we have a flip of the teleconnections, yes...ENSO counts, that we have some interesting results regarding extreme weather.

Let the games begin...and I had better not see any tweets from ppl acting like they were first to see it. wink.gif j/k


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PoconoSnow
post Dec 11 2015, 12:59 AM
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Linear Inverse Modeling ENSO Forecast (from PSD)

Nina by JJA

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/enso.forecast.html





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andyhb
post Dec 11 2015, 01:08 AM
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Here are years since 1950 that had the Nino-Nina flip (using ERSSTv3b).

1954-55
1964-65
1970-71
1973-74
1983-84
1988-89
1995-96
1998-99
2005-06
2007-08
2010-11

Out of the springs that came out of the Nina winter (i.e. the second of each pair), only one (2006) was "below average" for tornadic activity in the US and two, 1989 and 1996, were average. You could throw 1955 and 1971 in this category as well, but they each had individual tornado events that killed >100 people (5/25/55 and 2/21/71). For the remainders; 1965, 1974, 1984, 1999, 2008 and 2011, you'll notice that these comprise some of the most active and destructive tornado seasons since modern record keeping began in 1950, and all of them have at least one "historic" outbreak (4/11/65, 4/3/74, 3/28/84, 1/21/99 and/or 5/3/99, 2/5/08 and 4/27/11). Pretty robust/foreboding signal there.

This post has been edited by andyhb: Dec 11 2015, 01:09 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 11 2015, 03:05 PM
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Add NMME (and apparently Euro) to the list of models that have a more rapid Nino collapse and quicker switch to Nina. If you look at the top 4 strongest Ninos, Nino 3.4 switched to negative in July in almost all cases. CFS seems to be an outlier, which doesn't switch to negative until late in the summer.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 11 2015, 03:06 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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Stratocumulus
post Dec 11 2015, 03:06 PM
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If we get a moderate or strong La Nina, particularly one that's west-based, it may be the second consecutive poor winter - at least for the eastern United States. Obviously, the NAO and AO may have say in that. But historically some of the worst eastern US winters have been La Ninas (see, e.g., 1889-1890 and 1949-1950). I think we could all endure a January 1950, if it meant we got the November blizzard later in the year though! tongue.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Dec 11 2015, 10:55 PM
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MEI for the 7 strongest LA Niñas since 1949

54-56 topping the charts.

Honorable mention 73-77, solid Niña state for almost 4 years


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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 14 2015, 11:39 AM
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As of last month, the cool subsurface water is comparable to 1982 (IMO, 2015 is slightly cooler than 1982)... but warmer than 1997. A low-end moderate Nina followed the 1982-83 Super Nino. A high-end moderate Nina followed the 1997-98 Super Nino.

Curious how December will match up when compared to 1982 and 1997



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 14 2015, 11:40 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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weatherboss
post Dec 14 2015, 11:56 AM
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QUOTE(Stratocumulus @ Dec 11 2015, 03:06 PM) *
If we get a moderate or strong La Nina, particularly one that's west-based, it may be the second consecutive poor winter - at least for the eastern United States. Obviously, the NAO and AO may have say in that. But historically some of the worst eastern US winters have been La Ninas (see, e.g., 1889-1890 and 1949-1950). I think we could all endure a January 1950, if it meant we got the November blizzard later in the year though! tongue.gif

Can't stand La Nina winters. So confusing...
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jdrenken
post Dec 14 2015, 01:38 PM
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JB was the first to see it! #sigh...


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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grace
post Dec 15 2015, 06:33 PM
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Decembers following Super El Nino's:




We are due a cold DEC! tongue.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Dec 17 2015, 12:00 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 15 2015, 07:23 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 15 2015, 06:33 PM) *
Decembers following Super El Nino's:


We are due a cold DEC! tongue.gif

Yeah I cant wait to have a front loaded winter again. Much to look forward to.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Dec 15 2015, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 15 2015, 06:23 PM) *
Yeah I cant wait to have a front loaded winter again. Much to look forward to.


Question is when will the east ridge take over or how strong will it be?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 15 2015, 08:13 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 15 2015, 07:44 PM) *
Question is when will the east ridge take over or how strong will it be?

Umm... about a month and a half ago? laugh.gif wink.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 15 2015, 08:13 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 15 2015, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 15 2015, 10:13 PM) *
Umm... about a month and a half ago? laugh.gif wink.gif


Honestly this ridging pattern has been around since about the end of july/ early august time frame. It has since I feel transitioned further NW from a previous position to where we are currently. This doesnt mean we didnt have periods where we experienced troughiness but on the whole it has been since the mid/end of summer time period over here at least.


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