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> Long Range Spring 2016 Outlooks and Discussions, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
RobB
post Feb 2 2016, 11:07 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 2 2016, 09:56 AM) *
Not for a spring wedding in Destin FL, ohmy.gif. Omg my fiancÚ would kill me after I assured her May was historically one of Destin's driest months of the whole year



Congrats man! Look on the bright side...Even if it rains, you are still correct that historically it is still a drier month smile.gif
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 2 2016, 11:24 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 2 2016, 11:07 AM) *
Congrats man! Look on the bright side...Even if it rains, you are still correct that historically it is still a drier month smile.gif

Thank appreciate it, its been about a 1 1/2 long engagement. And that its true, no matter what the numbers dont lie laugh.gif
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snowsux
post Feb 2 2016, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 2 2016, 09:48 AM) *


This has "JB bait" written all over it. He was alluding to a late start to spring before we even flipped the calendar into 2016.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 2 2016, 09:48 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Feb 2 2016, 09:20 PM) *
This has "JB bait" written all over it. He was alluding to a late start to spring before we even flipped the calendar into 2016.

Oh my...lol
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psu1313
post Feb 3 2016, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Feb 2 2016, 09:20 PM) *
This has "JB bait" written all over it. He was alluding to a late start to spring before we even flipped the calendar into 2016.


I'm a tad confused by the cool/damp over the mid-atlantic though. I do believe we may have some cut-offs that traverse the area but with the way the pattern should set up, pacific air should push all the way across to the Eastern seaboard especially by late March. If this was a projection for March only, sure, but for the spring, I'd say the Mid-Atlantic ends up 2-3 degrees above normal.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 4 2016, 12:55 PM
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One of my favorites; watching seasons change in the long-range computer models.

On the 12z GFS, you're starting to see CAPE and EHI values pop up on a more regular basis and further inland. Obviously the pattern has lots to do with this, but climatology supports everything starting to get pushed north this time of year... and I think that's at least partially what we're seeing. Before you know it, we'll be seeing severe weather events with 2000+ j/kg CAPE in Kansas and Nebraska.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 4 2016, 01:01 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90░: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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andyhb
post Feb 7 2016, 02:11 PM
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Going to want to see some sort of change in this regime if we're going to get a more active severe season.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 7 2016, 03:33 PM
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QUOTE(andyhb @ Feb 7 2016, 02:11 PM) *
Going to want to see some sort of change in this regime if we're going to get a more active severe season.


Remember that it was much worse last winter until March when the PNA finally budged. Also, the Nino will be in a freefall in spring, so the pattern will change with it. 2010 ended up with a good severe season, and the pattern around this time in 2010 was much worse. Not concerned right now.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 7 2016, 03:47 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90░: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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andyhb
post Feb 14 2016, 10:21 PM
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smh

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/698913777631240192

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/698909894477549568

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/698907337776619520

Can we just get a normal spring for once without this backloaded winter nonsense?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 14 2016, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE(andyhb @ Feb 14 2016, 10:21 PM) *

Talk about overreaction (on Anthony's part). This is worlds different from the past 3 winters. 2013-14 and 2014-15 saw 20 day long streaks of this kind of weather. This is, what, day 5? We're gonna start warming up tomorrow (the high tomorrow is average for my location), and we'll see temps in the 50's and even 60's this weekend. Then the cold pattern returns, but we still get a week of warmth before that... something that didn't happen in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 cold waves.

As far as the forecast for spring... you know something's messed up when JB is more optimistic about actually having a spring than this guy. I get some are weary of the west ridge/east trough pattern, but just step back and take a breath. To this date, this winter has been one of the warmest and least snowy on record for places in the east... then a wintry pattern shows up in February and people lose their minds.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 14 2016, 10:43 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90░: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Feb 14 2016, 11:17 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 14 2016, 10:39 PM) *
Talk about overreaction (on Anthony's part). This is worlds different from the past 3 winters. 2013-14 and 2014-15 saw 20 day long streaks of this kind of weather. This is, what, day 5? We're gonna start warming up tomorrow (the high tomorrow is average for my location), and we'll see temps in the 50's and even 60's this weekend. Then the cold pattern returns, but we still get a week of warmth before that... something that didn't happen in the 2013-14 and 2014-15 cold waves.

As far as the forecast for spring... you know something's messed up when JB is more optimistic about actually having a spring than this guy. I get some are weary of the west ridge/east trough pattern, but just step back and take a breath. To this date, this winter has been one of the warmest and least snowy on record for places in the east... then a wintry pattern shows up in February and people lose their minds.


This is just a run of the mill eastern cold snap. The same drivers that caused this kind of weather for weeks on end (mainly The Blob) are no longer a factor. Even into weeks 3 and 4 of February, the EPO appears to stay positive, so I'm not buying a total return to another super freezer / storm train even for a few days at this point. If I had to bet, I'd say the next cold snap next week will feature high temperature departures of -5 to -10 vs. the more ungodly stuff we've experienced this weekend.

I'll stick to my original guns when it comes to February and March in general though, in terms of what certain people say year after year after year after year after year during this time. Yeah, JB might be more optimistic about spring popping in March right now, but we'll see what he says the second he sniffs out a cold outlier in the models. Same goes with all the other big time social media winter weather enthusiast mets. Maybe I'm a little jaded, as I've seen this silliness progress throughout the course of the last decade or so, but I can't help but notice the trend. American adults have seemed to favor big time snow and cold in recent years, and the idea of that has become an easily marketable product. As I said before in another post a while back, there's just no better feeling than sitting at home on a 50 degree sunny March afternoon because my customer canceled that day's job due to some overly generous snow or cold map that one of these mets posted on Twitter or Facebook with absolutely no context. It happens more and more frequently each year, it costs me big bucks, and that's the main reason I complain about it.
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snowsux
post Feb 16 2016, 06:13 PM
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Spring starts the 2nd week of April in the east again this year, right on recent schedule. Don't need "The Blob" apparently to achieve this annual feat anymore.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 17 2016, 11:56 PM
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First time GFS has shown an impressive severe weather setup this spring. Comes in near the end of the run though. Just for fun:






Also, this is the 3rd severe weather event of that GFS run. One on the 23rd, another on the 28th, and this one.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 18 2016, 12:00 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90░: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Feb 19 2016, 11:09 AM
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Looking a ahead a bit...

Between a dropping Negative AO & a Positive PNA..

March should not be "Spring Like" in the East and should feature stormy weather to continue which means either snowstorms or rain storms which means clouds/rain will hold temps down as well.








The 3 things working against a cool below normal March are...

NAO seems to be just Neutral
Stratosphere has dropped back down to record cold levels.
MJO looks to either be heading to Phase 1 or back in the circle for March





MJO heading to Phase 8, 1 or back in the circle for March which favors seasonable temps in the East and a 50/50 chance of dry or wet patterns. Phase 8 cooler than Phase 1. Phase 8 drier than Phase 1. Phase 8 seems to be too quick to come which probably fits end of February more not March?




Anyway ... I'm sure this will ALLLL change by next week as model predictions, projections, and forecasts usually do. So what you see today, can have a total different result in 1-2 weeks.

That AO might end up going positive instead to start March. If you look at the 7day forecasts, the actual has been "ABOVE" what the projection was.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 19 2016, 12:02 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 19 2016, 11:09 AM) *
Looking a ahead a bit...

Between a dropping Negative AO & a Positive PNA..

March should not be "Spring Like" in the East and should feature stormy weather to continue which means either snowstorms or rain storms which means clouds/rain will hold temps down as well.


[img]http://i.imgur.com/zOkrAne.jpg[/img


[img]http://i.imgur.com/EMADFLY.jpg[/img


The 3 things working against a cool below normal March are...

NAO seems to be just Neutral
Stratosphere has dropped back down to record cold levels.
MJO looks to either be heading to Phase 1 or back in the circle for March


[img]https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cbls3MHUkAEA9Yq.jpg[/img


MJO heading to Phase 8, 1 or back in the circle for March which favors seasonable temps in the East and a 50/50 chance of dry or wet patterns. Phase 8 cooler than Phase 1. Phase 8 drier than Phase 1. Phase 8 seems to be too quick to come which probably fits end of February more not March?


[img]http://i.imgur.com/1BEBdzV.jpg[/img

Anyway ... I'm sure this will ALLLL change by next week as model predictions, projections, and forecasts usually do. So what you see today, can have a total different result in 1-2 weeks.

That AO might end up going positive instead to start March. If you look at the 7day forecasts, the actual has been "ABOVE" what the projection was.


Well said

GFS, GEFS, and to a lesser extent Euro EPS, have been hinting/trending toward lower heights in the west/rising heights in the east around hour 270. IMO, this makes complete sense because this is pretty much exactly what happened with the cold spell we just got out of. A result of the lack of sustained Pacific (unlike January 2014/February 2015) and Greenland blocking.

(I was writing this as GFS was loading. Hour 200 and beyond just uploaded... holy blink.gif )

What happens in the stratosphere is also important. If another warming comes in the first week, expect another cold spell shortly after. Then probably expect the same thing to happen again; heights will rise in the east after a few to several days. That is, unless the PV actually splits. That might lead to something completely different. What it is, I'm not sure.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 19 2016, 12:03 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90░: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 19 2016, 04:03 PM
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Even though it's a slow start to spring, I'll take this outlook. Cooler March, very warm April and May.

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/...ng-2016-outlook


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90░: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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WeatherMonger
post Feb 20 2016, 07:31 PM
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Won't be long now. This will be brutal in the late spring/summer pattern. +32 departure

QUOTE
RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
0428 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES WAS SET AT SPRINGFIELD IL TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1930.
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snowsux
post Feb 20 2016, 09:44 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 19 2016, 04:03 PM) *
Even though it's a slow start to spring, I'll take this outlook. Cooler March, very warm April and May.


I don't think it'll be a cool start to spring at all. If anything, it'll be average in the north. I fully expect the typical March temperature swings through the month, with a little snow here and there even until the middle or so. We got through this *bleep* every year. Accuweather shows upper 30's/lower 40's consistently through the month of March in the long range, and JB starts with his "reluctant spring" rhetoric which gets everyone all riled up. This has always been the same, regardless of whether we're talking about March 2012 or March 2015. The same hype was there the previous late Februaries in ALL of the years.

In the end, guidance about a week out is all we have, and all we've ever had....and once you get beyond about 4-5 days out into that week of guidance, things can still be unpredictable this time of year....and are, regardless of who claims to have a crystal ball.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 21 2016, 01:06 PM
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Same as I did for the Summer .

Using JUST the ENSO status (there's a whole lot more to the puzzle as we know), here are the Spring Temp departures for the years that we went from a Strong or Moderate Nino to a weak Nino or Neutral in the Spring.


1952
1959
1964
1966
1973
1984
1988
1993
2003
2010


Individual years. Whoa.

Northeast looks Normal or Below 9 out of the 10 times.

2010 is interesting how it stands out but does fit into the scenario. It was a moderate Nino winter 2009-10 then Spring it was a weak Nino then by June it was a Neutral and they officially called it the End of El Nino in June.


Attached File  Temps1.jpg ( 1.11MB ) Number of downloads: 3


The Blend of all those years. ohmy.gif


So on average practically the entire U.S is cooler when we come from a Strong or Moderate Nino and are in a Weak Nino - Neutral ENSO for Spring


Attached File  Temps.jpg ( 118.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*ble...ensoyears.shtml

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/usclimdivs/

Edit: Don't forget! Each year is a blend of the 3 months. So even a cool year it doesn't mean you cant have a torching week or month. You would have to check each individual months for those years.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 21 2016, 01:08 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 21 2016, 03:15 PM
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Starting to look like another severe weather event (outbreak?) is on the horizon this week. This is the same area that's been getting slammed by severe weather so far this year. Wonder if we'll see this be a recurring theme through this year, just with different locations. It's been following climatology pretty well so far... we should see the main severe threat area move west in the next month, then expand north and east from the next 1 to 4 months.



In terms of severe weather numbers, this year is almost normal for the year. First time in 2 years we've even been close. 2013 was very active early in the year (over 100 tornadoes at this point in the year) but slowed down in the real severe weather season and ended being one of the least active tornado years on record, if not the least active. On the other hand, 2011 had only 13 tornadoes at this point in the year. You know what happened later.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 21 2016, 03:20 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90░: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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