Long Range Summer 2016 Outlooks and Discussions, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here. Options

[ILStormwatcher]

La Nina building in, lackluster Winter in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and snow in the Carolinas, shifting PDO to neutral to negative and positive AO/NAO trends so far herald a 2012 like Summer ahead especially for the heartland into the southern plains? Also will the tropics play a bigger role this Summer then last?

[ClicheVortex2014]

JB has repeatedly said that the next few summers will be Nina-like (2016, 2017, maybe 2018). Hopefully it'll be a break from the past 3 almost non-existent summers.

JAMSTEC:



JAMSTEC has a torchy late summer/fall. South-central US ridge in full effect.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 5 2016, 05:25 PM

[OSNW3]

Dang.

30+ days with a daily high temperature at or above 90 degrees in JJA for Chicago?





Source.

[ILStormwatcher]

Really liking 2012 as a solid analog to this Summer at least in the cornbelt and Midwest in general. I would expect nothing less then at least a few week plus long stretches of triple digit highs across Missouri/Illinois/Iowa into Indiana where I believe the core heat will be. Flash drought will also be a big issue in the same area. Nature's gotta make up for all that excess rain last Fall and into this Winter/Early Spring.

This post has been edited by ILStormwatcher: Feb 6 2016, 03:35 PM

[Gnutella]

JB has repeatedly said that the next few summers will be Nina-like (2016, 2017, maybe 2018). Hopefully it'll be a break from the past 3 almost non-existent summers.

JAMSTEC:



JAMSTEC has a torchy late summer/fall. South-central US ridge in full effect.

The summers of 2013 and 2014 were tepid for sure, but the summer of 2015 did have some heat closer to the East Coast.

Honestly, if there's going to be a hot summer in the eastern U.S., I hope it's something like 1993 or 2007, with the core of the heat in the eastern third of the country instead of the central third.

[ClicheVortex2014]

The summers of 2013 and 2014 were tepid for sure, but the summer of 2015 did have some heat closer to the East Coast.

Honestly, if there's going to be a hot summer in the eastern U.S., I hope it's something like 1993 or 2007, with the core of the heat in the eastern third of the country instead of the central third.

The past 4 summers have gotten progressively worse for my area (SW OH). 2011 and 2012 were a great year for my area. Yeah, it was filled with oppressive heat... but the setup was great for severe weather in my part of the OV. My county had 20 severe tstorm watches - only 2 other counties in the country could say that



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 7 2016, 01:28 PM

[Gnutella]

The past 4 summers have gotten progressively worse for my area (SW OH). 2011 and 2012 were a great year for my area. Yeah, it was filled with oppressive heat... but the setup was great for severe weather in my part of the OV. My county had 20 severe tstorm watches - only 2 other counties in the country could say that

Weird what a difference a few hundred miles makes. The worst summer of the last three here in Athens was 2013, when the month of July was effectively rained out. Pittsburgh actually had more days of 90°F temperatures that July (five) than Athens did (three). That summer basically lasted about a month here, from mid-August through mid-September. The worst summer of the last three in Pittsburgh was 2014, when the temperature didn't reach 90°F at all. The closest it came that year was 89°F on June 17.

The best summer of the last three in both Athens and Pittsburgh was 2015. Pittsburgh had 10 days of 90°F temperatures, which was right in line with the historical norm (not just 1981-2010), though it was odd that five of those 10 days were in September. In Athens, aside from a period of storminess during the first half of July, temperatures were consistently 95°F or higher from mid-June through about mid-August, including three days with 100°F temperatures (one in June, two in August).

[NorEaster07]

All Weak La Nina Summers coming from a Neutral and Nino in previous months.

1988 actually went from a Neutral Spring to a Moderate Nina Summer/Fall very fast so I left it out but I guess because it was weak La Nina to start the summer I could of kept it in maybe the atmosphere hadn't responded yet. I didn't add it.

1954
1964
1970
1973
1978
1981
1995
1998
2007
2010

Individual look at those Summers. temp anomalies compared to 1981-2010 normals..

• Summers definitely got warmer across the U.S with Weak La Ninas recent decades.
• 2007 looks the warmest aside from New England escaping the heat.
• 5 out of the 10 New England had above normal Summers
• 8 out of those 10 the Southeast had a Normal or Below normal Summer
• Only 1 out of those 10 Western U.S was above normal

 temps71.jpg ( 1.1MB ) Number of downloads: 22


The Blend

 temps72.jpg ( 117.76K ) Number of downloads: 5


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 20 2016, 08:11 AM

[mulligan]

JB has repeatedly said that the next few summers will be Nina-like (2016, 2017, maybe 2018). Hopefully it'll be a break from the past 3 almost non-existent summers.

JAMSTEC:



JAMSTEC has a torchy late summer/fall. South-central US ridge in full effect.

Meaning record heat?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Meaning record heat?

Certainly possible but impossible to be certain of it at this point. I think 2017 will be a hotter summer than this one, because we'll actually be in a Nina.

[Gnutella]

All Weak La Nina Summers coming from a Neutral and Nino in previous months.

1988 actually went from a Neutral Spring to a Moderate Nina Summer/Fall very fast so I left it out but I guess because it was weak La Nina to start the summer I could of kept it in maybe the atmosphere hadn't responded yet. I didn't add it.

1954
1964
1970
1973
1978
1981
1995
1998
2007
2010

Individual look at those Summers. temp anomalies compared to 1981-2010 normals..

• Summers definitely got warmer across the U.S with Weak La Ninas recent decades.
• 2007 looks the warmest aside from New England escaping the heat.
• 5 out of the 10 New England had above normal Summers
• 8 out of those 10 the Southeast had a Normal or Below normal Summer
• Only 1 out of those 10 Western U.S was above normal

 temps71.jpg ( 1.1MB ) Number of downloads: 22


The Blend

 temps72.jpg ( 117.76K ) Number of downloads: 5

Not bad for heat lovers in the Deep South or the Northeast, based on three of the last four summers on your list. The last time Pittsburgh reached 100°F was in 1995; the most extreme heat I've experienced here in the South before 2012 was in 2007, and 2010 was consistently hot from April clear through September.

[NorEaster07]

Not bad for heat lovers in the Deep South or the Northeast, based on three of the last four summers on your list. The last time Pittsburgh reached 100°F was in 1995; the most extreme heat I've experienced here in the South before 2012 was in 2007, and 2010 was consistently hot from April clear through September.

Nice info and good reminder. "Normal" in Summer is HOT for some areas of the south. lol So keep in mind what Normal would be for July and August


Edit:: Something tells me it wont be a weak La Nina this Summer though so all that work for nothing.. Maybe towards the end?

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 23 2016, 07:32 AM

[Gnutella]

Nice info and good reminder. "Normal" in Summer is HOT for some areas of the south. lol So keep in mind what Normal would be for July and August
Edit:: Something tells me it wont be a weak La Nina this Summer though so all that work for nothing.. Maybe towards the end?

Well here are the observed high temperatures in Athens, GA during August 2007:



That's nine days with high temperatures at or above 100°F that August, and 21 days with high temperatures at or above 95°F. For that matter, there were 12 consecutive days (August 13-24) with high temperatures at or above 97°F, and the 106°F high temperature on August 22, 2007 is the hottest I've experienced in Georgia outside of the record-breaking 109°F/107°F/108°F sequence from June 29-July 1, 2012.

In 2007, there were 81 days with high temperatures at or above 90°F in Athens (normal is 53 days), with the first day being May 1, and the last day being October 9. There were also 27 days with high temperatures at or above 95°F, plus the aforementioned nine days with high temperatures at or above 100°F. The summer of 2007 was brutally hot in Athens, and for much of the Deep South.

This happened during a historically severe long-term drought for much of the South. It began in 2006, but it really kicked into overdrive in 2007, with wildfires in the Okefenokee Swamp during the spring, the persistent extreme heat during the summer, and a water supply crisis in Atlanta during the fall. Yes, the city of Atlanta was in danger of literally running out of water late in the year. And the drought wasn't fully quenched until the El Niño fall of 2009.

This post has been edited by Gnutella: Feb 23 2016, 01:36 PM

[Fire/Rescue]

Certainly possible but impossible to be certain of it at this point. I think 2017 will be a hotter summer than this one, because we'll actually be in a Nina.

Bring on the warmth

[jdrenken]

LC

. Now that we appear to have winter ending after the first week of March, it is time to concern ourselves with Spring. That is, warmer temperatures, chances for heavy rainfall and severe weather. My friends in the chaser community should understand, however, that this being an end-phase El Nino event suggests that the first half of the MAMJ period will present the greatest convective threats not in the famed "Tornado Alley". But rather in C, S TX and the Gulf States. Specifically, the corridor between Interstate 20 and 10 to the right of Interstate 35. If you can remember how 1998 progressed with respect to thunderstorm threats, that might be a useful analog.

I say that because there has been a very strong and well-defined subtropical jet stream. The southern branch wind field has been much farther south than normal (Mexico to Florida Peninsula), and will take its time with northward relocation and translation. Deriving a high yield of moisture from the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with the positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation helping to maintain a ridge axis along the West Coast, there will be a tendency for upper level lows/cold pools over the Southwest and "Four Corners" vicinity. Just such an occurrence is visible on all of the ensemble packages during the March 6 - 9 time frame.

This initial gyre will probably take a track, slowly, through C TX and then toward lower Appalachia. Remembering that the air mass east of the Rocky Mountains will be mild to warm, the precipitation that does take shape from Kansas to the Rio Grande will likely be all rain. The very gradual eastward translation bothers me, as it implies an excessive, long-duration rainfall event in cities such as Dallas TX, Houston TX, Shreveport LA, New Orleans LA and Jackson MS in the 11 - 15 day period. Severe weather concerns, mirroring the ideas posted above, will likely be from C, S TX and then along the length of the Gulf Coast. If the ECMWF ensemble package is correct, thunderstorm output will be memorable, or worse.

[Fire/Rescue]

LC

Nice read....thanks for sharing pal

[ColumbusBuckeye]

LC

Thanks for sharing, JD. LC mentioned 1998, from what I can recall it was a very active summer from a storm standpoint IMBY in North Central Ohio. I'm looking forward, from my amateur vantage point, to an active spring/summer taking shape.

This post has been edited by ColumbusBuckeye: Mar 4 2016, 09:48 AM

[ClicheVortex2014]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...uction/55768985

The average high temperature from western Ohio to eastern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota and southern Minnesota is in the middle to upper 80s F during July and August. The pattern could bring a high number of days with temperatures in the 90s this summer.

Extreme heat and dryness can greatly stress crops, such as corn. When a crop is stressed, there is a greater chance of reduced yields.

The drought anticipated over much of the Corn Belt this summer will be the first since 2012.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 7 2016, 01:35 PM

[jdrenken]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...uction/55768985

Dr. Lupo and I have been discussing the past 2011 and 2012 summers and how brown the grass was if that tells you anything.

[Stratocumulus]

Obviously early, but I'm currently favoring a very warm to hot summer. There's a chance it could rank among the top ten warmest for the CONUS as a whole. Obviously, YMMV.