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> Long Range Summer 2016 Outlooks and Discussions, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 14 2016, 06:10 PM
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If this SSTA source is to be believed, the PDO is almost imminently about to flip.




But it appears it's an outlier. That North Pacific cold pool is certainly getting large, or possibly even advancing east, but I don't think it's as far east as it suggests.

Tropicaltidbits:


Canadian government


Earth.nullschool


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 14 2016, 06:12 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2016, 08:58 AM
Post #22




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JB's still pushing for a hot summer



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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scwxman
post Mar 16 2016, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 24 2016, 09:33 AM) *
Bring on the warmth cool.gif


You realize the affects of such heat? Excessive electric bills, health problems. MISERY. SC is hot enough, we don't need this.

Bring on the cool.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2016, 11:37 AM
Post #24




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QUOTE(scwxman @ Mar 16 2016, 11:23 AM) *
You realize the affects of such heat? Excessive electric bills, health problems. MISERY. SC is hot enough, we don't need this.

Bring on the cool.

Well, you don't get extremely cold winters... you're warm year-round. We can get extremely cold in the winter, so Northerners are more likely to desire heat than Southerners.

Unseasonably cool weather can have negative effects, too.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 16 2016, 11:39 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2016, 04:35 PM
Post #25




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WT360 is basically calling for a repeat of 2012

http://www.weathertrends360.com/Blog/Post/...lt-Farmers-3255



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 16 2016, 04:36 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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OSNW3
post Mar 16 2016, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Feb 6 2016, 11:03 AM) *
Dang.

30+ days with a daily high temperature at or above 90 degrees in JJA for Chicago?





Source.


Still around +30.

MaxT1 41
MaxT2 34
MaxT3 41
MaxTEns 29

Source.



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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 19 2016, 08:30 AM
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QUOTE(scwxman @ Mar 16 2016, 11:23 AM) *
You realize the affects of such heat? Excessive electric bills, health problems. MISERY. SC is hot enough, we don't need this.

Bring on the cool.

Ummmm huh.gif

Who said anything with regard to "scorching/blistering" heat advisory type temperatures, because I know who didn't!

I was merely commenting on welcoming the Spring/Summer months cool.gif

As for the health problems comment, I'm all too familiar when it comes to this with being in the "Fire/EMS" career field for 26+ years and again I never once alluded to the type of HEAT needed to cause this sort of emergency with my (bring on the warmth) post.

The manner in which you replied to my post is what most would consider....reading wayyyyy too far into my harmless comment OR blowing something that was nothing completely out of proportion/context.

Good day sir.
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mulligan
post Mar 21 2016, 07:39 AM
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Hot Hot Hot.....
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NorEaster07
post Mar 30 2016, 11:33 AM
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2 questions on Paulie P's latest Video..

He uses Analogs of 1941, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1998, 2007

1. Was that for July-September only or for Summer thinking?


Here are the temp departure blend for those years for June, July, August, and 3 month blend. Doesn't look so hot.

Attached File  temps2.jpg ( 475.49K ) Number of downloads: 1



2. If people are weighing heavy on the ENSO changes, then Why am I not seeing 1995 being used as an analog?

ENSO has more effect on our winters than Summers but it still has some affect and I do see Mets use the Enso in their Summer forecasts... I'm wondering why I haven't seen 1995 used a lot yet..

That year We came from an El Nino went to Neutral in Summer and La Nina by Fall. Sounds similar to forecasts for this year.

That ended up being a pretty warm Summer in the Mid West and Northeast. In fact Hartford had 10 days "in a row" of 90+ which is their extreme on record.

Attached File  Nino.jpg ( 276.1K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Mar 30 2016, 11:35 AM


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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stuffradio
post Mar 30 2016, 11:07 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 30 2016, 09:33 AM) *
2 questions on Paulie P's latest Video..

He uses Analogs of 1941, 1983, 1987, 1992, 1998, 2007

1. Was that for July-September only or for Summer thinking?
Here are the temp departure blend for those years for June, July, August, and 3 month blend. Doesn't look so hot.

Attached File  temps2.jpg ( 475.49K ) Number of downloads: 1

2. If people are weighing heavy on the ENSO changes, then Why am I not seeing 1995 being used as an analog?

ENSO has more effect on our winters than Summers but it still has some affect and I do see Mets use the Enso in their Summer forecasts... I'm wondering why I haven't seen 1995 used a lot yet..

That year We came from an El Nino went to Neutral in Summer and La Nina by Fall. Sounds similar to forecasts for this year.

That ended up being a pretty warm Summer in the Mid West and Northeast. In fact Hartford had 10 days "in a row" of 90+ which is their extreme on record.

Attached File  Nino.jpg ( 276.1K ) Number of downloads: 0

Doesn't it take a few months for ENSO changes to show up in the atmosphere? That's why I'm thinking a neutral or negative ENSO wouldn't be felt until the Sept-Oct range... right on time for Fall/Winter.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 30 2016, 11:49 PM
Post #31




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I've read this and they say it's different from a -PDO, but I still don't see how it's any different

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMaste...nal-to-seasonal




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 30 2016, 11:50 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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alczervik
post Mar 31 2016, 05:16 AM
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QUOTE(scwxman @ Mar 16 2016, 11:23 AM) *
You realize the affects of such heat? Excessive electric bills, health problems. MISERY. SC is hot enough, we don't need this.

Bring on the cool.


You don't know how lucky you are.
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scwxman
post Mar 31 2016, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Mar 31 2016, 05:16 AM) *
You don't know how lucky you are.


I'm not insulting anyone, but it isn't lucky to have excessive heat, anywhere. These next two summer, if the analogs prove correctly will be quite brutal.




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Stratocumulus
post Apr 1 2016, 12:34 PM
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Any updates on the summer forecast? What are some of the professional meteorologists saying?
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alczervik
post Apr 4 2016, 05:38 AM
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QUOTE(scwxman @ Mar 31 2016, 01:03 PM) *
I'm not insulting anyone, but it isn't lucky to have excessive heat, anywhere. These next two summer, if the analogs prove correctly will be quite brutal.


I only that you are lucky because I have the reverse situation of you. I can't wait for warmth because I love doing gardening and I only get 4-5 warm months. I have not experienced a hot summer since 2012.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 5 2016, 05:49 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 5 2016, 04:45 PM) *
For the 3rd or 4th time this year, there's extremely critical (category 5/5) fire danger in the Plains. Currently a fire warning for NW OK... and I swear, this is the 2nd or 3rd time they've had one.

In the area, it's currently 86 degrees...32 dew point... sustained winds of 30 MPH. Some places in NW TX/NE NM are around 85 degrees, 16 dew point, and 20-25 MPH sustained winds.

Most of the aforementioned area is in a stage 1 (category 2/5) drought.


A follow-up on this.

This is the 4th extremely critical fire day; February 18, March 22, March 23, April 5.

In 2015, there were only 2 of these days throughout the year.
-There were 6 of these days in 2014, but they all happened between May and June.
-There were 2 throughout 2013

Then you get into the years that compare to this year's activity so far.

-There were 4 in March 2012 alone, then 2 more in May.
-There were 20 extremely critical fire days in 2011. At this point in the year, there'd already been 6. This is because the southern US was in an extreme drought and there was a long-duration wildfire in Texas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm...E2.80.93present

As I mentioned, there's a drought in the central Plains... which is rather concerning because they're heading into their relative dry season (summer). On top of that, we're moving into a La Nina, which favors droughts in the southern Plains. But last year, they were moving into an extreme drought but then the late spring/summer happened, and they got a couple feet of rain thanks to the Nino-induced STJ. Maybe the El Nino will flex its muscles one last time before it completely dies out.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 5 2016, 05:52 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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OSNW3
post Apr 5 2016, 09:11 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 5 2016, 05:49 PM) *
A follow-up on this.

This is the 4th extremely critical fire day; February 18, March 22, March 23, April 5.

In 2015, there were only 2 of these days throughout the year.
-There were 6 of these days in 2014, but they all happened between May and June.
-There were 2 throughout 2013

Then you get into the years that compare to this year's activity so far.

-There were 4 in March 2012 alone, then 2 more in May.
-There were 20 extremely critical fire days in 2011. At this point in the year, there'd already been 6. This is because the southern US was in an extreme drought and there was a long-duration wildfire in Texas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Storm...E2.80.93present

As I mentioned, there's a drought in the central Plains... which is rather concerning because they're heading into their relative dry season (summer). On top of that, we're moving into a La Nina, which favors droughts in the southern Plains. But last year, they were moving into an extreme drought but then the late spring/summer happened, and they got a couple feet of rain thanks to the Nino-induced STJ. Maybe the El Nino will flex its muscles one last time before it completely dies out.



I am traveling for work. I drove from Tulsa to Muskogee today and noticed the Arkansas River is nearly dry, but before I posted this I did a little research. Apparently the Arkansas River is only with water when they let it be around here. Weird. I suppose this comment is off topic and pointless. And without hashtags.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Apr 5 2016, 09:13 PM


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NorEaster07
post Apr 11 2016, 03:43 PM
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If someone says "don't be surprised if a Bermuda high or South East Ridge shows up this summer".... I want to say that pretty much happens every summer. No?

Is there an easy way to check and confirm that? How would we even do so without spending a boat load of time looking at the daily 500mb maps? Will a monthly average be enough? Forget seasonal, you can miss a lot in 3 months time. How about text data that we can easily sort to show yrs that a certain value didnt happen in J-J-A? I dont remember when the SER or BH didnt show up.


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2016, 03:57 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 11 2016, 04:43 PM) *
If someone says "don't be surprised if a Bermuda high or South East Ridge shows up this summer".... I want to say that pretty much happens every summer. No?

Is there an easy way to check and confirm that? How would we even do so without spending a boat load of time looking at the daily 500mb maps? Will a monthly average be enough? Forget seasonal, you can miss a lot in 3 months time. How about text data that we can easily sort to show yrs that a certain value didnt happen in J-J-A? I dont remember when the SER or BH didnt show up.

That subtropical high is always there in the summer, but how it extends west is what differentiates extreme summers.

Here's July 2009. You can clearly see the ridge in the south-central Atlantic... but there's effectively no SE ridge.



On the flip side... 2012



They're basically saying the SE ridge will make its presence known to those of us in the east US... opposed to months like July 2009.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 11 2016, 04:03 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MaineJay
post Apr 11 2016, 04:44 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 11 2016, 04:43 PM) *
If someone says "don't be surprised if a Bermuda high or South East Ridge shows up this summer".... I want to say that pretty much happens every summer. No?

Is there an easy way to check and confirm that? How would we even do so without spending a boat load of time looking at the daily 500mb maps? Will a monthly average be enough? Forget seasonal, you can miss a lot in 3 months time. How about text data that we can easily sort to show yrs that a certain value didnt happen in J-J-A? I dont remember when the SER or BH didnt show up.


I too believe it's a climatological norm, and it's exact location, shape, and size is generally what varies.

Perhaps the western Atlantic ridge index could be useful?
Attached File  gmode_daily_series_watl__1_.gif ( 19.9K ) Number of downloads: 2

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...dex.primjo.html


--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far" - Theodore Roosevelt.

MJ SN-o-meter. Each dash represents 1", 84 in total for 7', my average
//////////////////////////////////////////
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***bonus snow***
//////////////////////////////

116.5" season to date
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