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> Long Range Winter 2016-2017 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
KSpring1
post Mar 9 2017, 10:16 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 8 2017, 05:56 PM) *
It was alright. Then the calendar flipped to March and I've been sick ever since. At least I've been somewhat busy at work doing a lot of patching. Mild winters around here are rougher on pavement than cold winters are. It still sucks laying blacktop when you've got a fever and it's cold/windy out. At least in a few weeks I'll be back in the neighborhoods sealing driveways with my crew. That is leisurely work to me compared to this winter patching *bleep*.



Man, that sucks about being sick!! ... at least it was warm-ish?...


How strange that the milder weather makes bigger potholes. I'd qualify Va winters as mild, but the potholes here aren't too bad. In the suburbs north of Chicago, on the other hand (where I lived during part of my childhood) I remember EPIC potholes!! (Those are some bad potholes if one remembers them as a kid/non-driver!)



--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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snowsux
post Mar 9 2017, 11:23 PM
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QUOTE(KSpring1 @ Mar 9 2017, 10:16 PM) *
How strange that the milder weather makes bigger potholes. I'd qualify Va winters as mild, but the potholes here aren't too bad. In the suburbs north of Chicago, on the other hand (where I lived during part of my childhood) I remember EPIC potholes!! (Those are some bad potholes if one remembers them as a kid/non-driver!)


The root cause of most potholes is actually diesel fuel. Diesel fuel is often used as a release agent in dump truck bodies for hot mix asphalt. It's also what is used to keep the hand tools clean when laying mix. The reason why you usually see potholes in the entrances and along the paver seams of driveways and parking lots is simple: Those areas are where there's gonna be more spraying of diesel on hand tools (close to seams on either side of the paver), and toward the entrance if that was the last area to be paved, because it's the end of the load, the bed is up, and all that excess pooled fuel gets saturated into the last drop into the paver. Diesel weakens the asphalt binder in the pavement, and during freeze-thaw cycles, those areas are the first to deteriorate. This is also why you'll see potholes in the deep south and out west where there aren't freeze-thaw cycles. It's all due to the necessary evil of having to keep equipment and tools clean when the pavement was originally installed. Nowadays there's a soapy solution that you're "supposed" to wet the dump bodies with before you get loaded, but it isn't nearly as effective as diesel fuel, and you wind up with a lot of material getting stuck in the corners.
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KSpring1
post Mar 12 2017, 12:44 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 9 2017, 06:17 AM) *
We have had a nice snowy winter up here. White it's certainly been warmer than average, it's been punctuated by some very nice storms. Certainly one of the better snowpacks I've seen, but it was fairly short-lived. Only about 8-12" left, probably some deeper spots in the woods.
In regards to *normal* jet stream location, without getting too in depth, as air moves around the globe, it organizes into the jet streams at different latitudes. As the jet streams move west to east, it encounters land, and ocean. The "roughness" of the land then alters the jet stream. Think of a river with various rocks in it, the size, shape, and orientation affect the flow. And the effects from these features changes of the river flows faster or slower.

So as the jet stream meanders around the globe, the Earth's features alter the air flow and create quasi-permanent features, that show up when you average it out over long periods. The west ridge/east trof is often defined as the PNA (Pacific/ North American) pattern. We say it's "positive" when that couplet is stronger, and when we see a west trof/east ridge, it's a negative PNA. even zonal flow would be considered a weak negative PNA.

The NAO region also demonstrates this. Generally speaking, the jet stream settles on low pressure around Iceland/Greenland and a high pressure near the Azores (the islands west of Portugal). The pressure difference keeps the jet stream moving along, if these pressure centers strengthen, it speeds up the flow, and systems move rapidly. If we see these pressure centers flip flop, then we see "blocking" this slows down the flow, and allows storms to more easily amplify.

So, zonal flow is not the preferred flow on planet earth due to the surface features mostly.

When you look at the gas giant Jupiter, you can see how it's atmosphere organizes itself into more "zonal" "belts" with little mixing between them. One of the reasons the giant red spot has endured for hundreds of years.

[attachment=320988:spinning_jupiter.gif]



Hi MaineJay!

Thank you so much for taking the time and effort to write such a detailed, comprehensive response!!

I didn't reply right away, bc I neede to take a little time to read/think about it!


I'm still trying to learn what I can - I like understanding all of this better bit by bit!


In fact, I'd like to copy and save this post to read again in future.

(.... oh! So THAT's what PNA is! I never knew that!) ....

Thanks again!





--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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RobB
post Mar 12 2017, 12:49 PM
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3/12 12Z GEFS:



Attached File(s)
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 116.16K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 109.77K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 109.27K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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snowsux
post Mar 12 2017, 04:42 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 1 2017, 04:47 PM) *
Not so fast. It's starting to look more and more like March is gonna be cold, clammy, overcast, windy, and occasionally snowy in the east for the next month or so.


Well.....that was prophetic.
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 12 2017, 10:03 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 12 2017, 05:42 PM) *
Well.....that was prophetic.

lol
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kpk33x
post Mar 13 2017, 11:46 AM
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Our high of 6F on Saturday was the coldest high this late in the winter/spring that we've had, and when combined with a low of -4F one of the coldest March days we've ever had.

On 3/4/03 we had a range of 6/-10F
On 3/7/07 we had a range of 0/-10F

Interestingly in JB's favorite decade (60s) I didn't find ANY March days with a max below 10F. We had 11F as a max one day in March 1967.

But it is not the latest we've been below zero, for sure. Look back only to 2014 when we were -2F on 3/26, or 1984 was 3/29. We had 0F on 4/1/64 and 1F on 4/1/69.

And a nice antecedent air mass this week for a foot or two of snow.


--------------------
Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 18" (thru 3/15)
Season Total to date - 121.25" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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KSpring1
post Mar 13 2017, 01:14 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Mar 12 2017, 01:49 PM) *
3/12 12Z GEFS:



Are we one of the coldest places on the planet now? Looks like this bunch of arctic air could be some of the last holdouts of winter?.... Or are there other places where cold is dumping as well? (Europe- Eurasia-Siberia?)??...


What strange maps - although they seem all to familiar from past winters!! dry.gif



--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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KSpring1
post Mar 13 2017, 01:20 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 12 2017, 05:42 PM) *
Well.....that was prophetic.



I remember reading that when you wrote it!! It made me feel quite concerned, but then I thought: ahh, it'll be Mrch - soooo it can't be that cold! (Our average high now is 60s!) Even in 2015, by now, mid-mrch we were having days in the 60s-70s.

This, however, is a massive cold shot! So it's about 20-30 degrees below average consistently for a long period (at least a week) - If this were January our highs at that departure would be in the teens (like in Feb 2015!)
ugh.


On the super positive side: we've got hardy flowers!! smile.gif and budding and fragrantly flowering trees smile.gif and a Niiiiiiiiice sun angle that really lifts the spirits!!!

So: YEAH!!


Thanks, also for the info about potholes. How crazy that they seem to be 'baked' into the mix, as it were. Most people believe they're purely weather related!

(And don't we all get a mental map of where they are when we walk/drive?! Swerve and avoid...) smile.gif









--------------------
*************
82 degrees in Richmond - Feb 12

*************
We are deep into Solar Spring :-)
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
February blooming: crocuses (2/4), flowering trees(2/15), maple trees(2/18), daffodils, hyacinths(2/24). forsythia(2/24)
When the heck are those first hickory buds going to sprout??!! ..... (I swore it'd be in Feb ... still waiting!!)
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paletitsnow63
post Mar 16 2017, 10:54 AM
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I usually think the NAEFS is pretty good at predicting "probabilities" for temps in the long range but the predictions it made in early March were pretty far off. At least in the MA and NE. It has been very cold by March standards from the 10th at least through Friday the 17th. Here is what it predicted back in early March for the time period I mentioned.

Attached File(s)
Attached File  NAEFS0302.png ( 72.43K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  NAEFS0303.png ( 70.89K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  NAEFS0303b.png ( 71.28K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 17 2017, 07:41 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 10 2017, 12:23 AM) *
The root cause of most potholes is actually diesel fuel. Diesel fuel is often used as a release agent in dump truck bodies for hot mix asphalt. It's also what is used to keep the hand tools clean when laying mix. The reason why you usually see potholes in the entrances and along the paver seams of driveways and parking lots is simple: Those areas are where there's gonna be more spraying of diesel on hand tools (close to seams on either side of the paver), and toward the entrance if that was the last area to be paved, because it's the end of the load, the bed is up, and all that excess pooled fuel gets saturated into the last drop into the paver. Diesel weakens the asphalt binder in the pavement, and during freeze-thaw cycles, those areas are the first to deteriorate. This is also why you'll see potholes in the deep south and out west where there aren't freeze-thaw cycles. It's all due to the necessary evil of having to keep equipment and tools clean when the pavement was originally installed. Nowadays there's a soapy solution that you're "supposed" to wet the dump bodies with before you get loaded, but it isn't nearly as effective as diesel fuel, and you wind up with a lot of material getting stuck in the corners.

Awesome man (I had not idea) as I was always under the impression of the good ole reasoning was the simple water frrezing in the crack and when expanded BOOM the pavement breaks.

thanks for sharing wink.gif
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snowsux
post Mar 17 2017, 01:47 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Mar 17 2017, 08:41 AM) *
Awesome man (I had not idea) as I was always under the impression of the good ole reasoning was the simple water frrezing in the crack and when expanded BOOM the pavement breaks.


That's what everyone thinks, but nope....not the case. This is why you'll find potholes everywhere. Even in South Florida. Freezing and thawing can and does weaken already compromised asphalt binder, but at the end of the day it's the solvents used in the instillation process that create the original problem.
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thedarkestclouds
post Mar 19 2017, 08:05 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Mar 16 2017, 11:54 AM) *
I usually think the NAEFS is pretty good at predicting "probabilities" for temps in the long range but the predictions it made in early March were pretty far off. At least in the MA and NE. It has been very cold by March standards from the 10th at least through Friday the 17th. Here is what it predicted back in early March for the time period I mentioned.


Going solely from personal observation, the NAEFS's biggest weakness by far is predicting major cold spells in advance, in the eastern US at least. That's how it's been the entire five or so years that I've been following it. Once it has caught on to a prolonged cold spell, it's very good at predicting when it will end (aka, the blues start to disappear at the correct time), but it definitely seems to struggle with picking up on cold spells in advance. Other than that, I view the NAEFS as one of the best long-range temperature models out there, even if all it predicts are probabilities.
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