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> Long Range Fall 2016 Forecast & Discussion, El Nino to La Nina? Hurricanes? Post your fall info here!
NorEaster07
post Aug 23 2016, 11:19 AM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Aug 23 2016, 09:37 AM) *
We don't get mornings like that down here until about the end of September, typically. It's always a treat when it happens, though. I enjoy sitting outside under a clear, haze-free sky at twilight, and feeling a nibble in the air every time the wind blows. Not yet cool enough for a sweatshirt, but slightly cooler than before, and markedly less humid. Very refreshing, especially for somebody with low heat tolerance like me.


Always interesting hearing what peoples "tolerance" is especially when they have the same words to say. I have low tolerance for heat but I don't know how the heck you live down there. This summer really got to me and we only had a Mid Atlantic type summer. I cant imagine a Georgian type summer. The humidity is what got to me. and this 2 day break isn't recharging my batteries either although is nice to actually breath again.
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alczervik
post Aug 23 2016, 11:22 AM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Aug 23 2016, 09:37 AM) *
We don't get mornings like that down here until about the end of September, typically. It's always a treat when it happens, though. I enjoy sitting outside under a clear, haze-free sky at twilight, and feeling a nibble in the air every time the wind blows. Not yet cool enough for a sweatshirt, but slightly cooler than before, and markedly less humid. Very refreshing, especially for somebody with low heat tolerance like me.
I'm not, especially since it's happened at Christmastime twice in the last four years. sad.gif


I will gladly switch locations with you.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 23 2016, 04:08 PM
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12z Euro has a 951mb hurricane striking the Florida peninsula






This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 23 2016, 04:09 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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weather_boy2010
post Aug 23 2016, 04:22 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 23 2016, 04:08 PM) *
12z Euro has a 951mb hurricane striking the Florida peninsula






If I could show it, I would, but the Mobile, AL zoom off of WeatherBell actually shows a 937mb low making a direct strike in Mobile, AL. I do think attention should be paid to this model, after all, it has shown a hurricane for several runs in a row now, albeit in many various locations. Not to mention its one of the most credible models we have to work with.
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grace
post Aug 23 2016, 09:14 PM
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If....and I mean "if" a hurricane strikes the Gulf Coast...could you imagine how devastating it would be if the Euro model verified west. I can't think of a worse case scenario as they clean up in Louisiana from the floods.

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conifer1
post Aug 24 2016, 07:05 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 23 2016, 09:14 PM) *
If....and I mean "if" a hurricane strikes the Gulf Coast...could you imagine how devastating it would be if the Euro model verified west. I can't think of a worse case scenario as they clean up in Louisiana from the floods.


Perhaps it is not a question of "if" but "when."


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weather_boy2010
post Aug 24 2016, 07:18 AM
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QUOTE(conifer1 @ Aug 24 2016, 07:05 AM) *
Perhaps it is not a question of "if" but "when."


Sadly, that is exactly how the Euro is trending it seems. The 00z run brings it into roughly Holly Beach, LA at 941mb.

I know gut feelings don't count much on here, but I've got a gut feeling the Euro is on to something. I think back to Sandy and how accurate it was, almost a full week out. Meanwhile, the other models hem-hawed around it until within a few days of the storm.
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weather_boy2010
post Aug 24 2016, 07:25 AM
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Also, to bolster the thinking of the Euro, the "EAR" rule is showing this as well, something Josh pointed out in the Organic Forecasting thread...

Attached File  Cqfii06VYAAt4CN.jpg ( 444.14K ) Number of downloads: 4


This post has been edited by weather_boy2010: Aug 24 2016, 07:25 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 24 2016, 12:33 PM
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SE ridge just does not let go throughout the GFS run. Very hot run.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 24 2016, 12:34 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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Gnutella
post Aug 24 2016, 11:25 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 23 2016, 12:19 PM) *
Always interesting hearing what peoples "tolerance" is especially when they have the same words to say. I have low tolerance for heat but I don't know how the heck you live down there. This summer really got to me and we only had a Mid Atlantic type summer. I cant imagine a Georgian type summer. The humidity is what got to me. and this 2 day break isn't recharging my batteries either although is nice to actually breath again.


I just look at it as a character builder. Extreme heat is more unpleasant to me than extreme cold, especially since I sweat a lot from my head, but I still expose myself to it deliberately just so I know that I can handle it if I have to. I didn't have much of a choice for a while this summer either, because the A/C compressor in my truck died in the middle of July, and then the central A/C in my house died in late July, just in time for the most intense heat wave of the year.

The good news is, I had an auxiliary window A/C that I was able to use in my bedroom until the central A/C was fixed, but the rest of the house was an inferno, especially in the kitchen when I was cooking. Temperatures in the living room were above 90F during the day, but an inward-pointing fan and an outward-pointing fan in the windows got the temperatures down below 80F at night. Noon to 8PM was the worst. I had several fans going throughout the house.

Next month I plan to replace the A/C compressor in my truck. In the interim, I've been driving everywhere with the window down. What sucks is when it's hotter than heck in my truck and a thunderstorm rolls in. I can only crack the window at that point, so it doesn't cool me off as well, but doing that also fogs up all the other windows. The good news is, I won't have to worry about the air conditioning in my house or my truck for several years after this.
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Gnutella
post Aug 24 2016, 11:27 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 24 2016, 01:33 PM) *
SE ridge just does not let go throughout the GFS run. Very hot run.


As long as whatever tropical thing there is in the Gulf of Mexico stays away from the Carolinas next week. I'm going to be in the Charlotte area for a day next week, so I'd rather it not be too rainy when I'm there.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 25 2016, 12:15 AM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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kpk33x
post Aug 25 2016, 11:42 AM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Aug 25 2016, 12:25 AM) *
I just look at it as a character builder. Extreme heat is more unpleasant to me than extreme cold, especially since I sweat a lot from my head, but I still expose myself to it deliberately just so I know that I can handle it if I have to. I didn't have much of a choice for a while this summer either, because the A/C compressor in my truck died in the middle of July, and then the central A/C in my house died in late July, just in time for the most intense heat wave of the year.

The good news is, I had an auxiliary window A/C that I was able to use in my bedroom until the central A/C was fixed, but the rest of the house was an inferno, especially in the kitchen when I was cooking. Temperatures in the living room were above 90F during the day, but an inward-pointing fan and an outward-pointing fan in the windows got the temperatures down below 80F at night. Noon to 8PM was the worst. I had several fans going throughout the house.

Next month I plan to replace the A/C compressor in my truck. In the interim, I've been driving everywhere with the window down. What sucks is when it's hotter than heck in my truck and a thunderstorm rolls in. I can only crack the window at that point, so it doesn't cool me off as well, but doing that also fogs up all the other windows. The good news is, I won't have to worry about the air conditioning in my house or my truck for several years after this.


Having no/broken AC is no fun!

Living in Maryland we had several stretches of 10 or even 20 days of 90+ heat. Not quite Georgia or Florida type of heat, but hot enough. When I was young I didn't mind it. I would be outside in it and when I started running track, had no trouble training in it except on the very hottest of days. As I got older that changed. As I got out of high school I started to suffer in anything over 90F, had to slow way down or I would occasionally get heat exhaustion. By the time I was 30, running in anything over 80F became uncomfortable if not problematic. I switched runs to evenings. Now at 41 I have decreased performance over 70F...even if the inside temp is 70F+ and I'm on the treadmill it is draining. But my high tolerance for very cold activity has not changed...my hands may get cold if below zero.

I think in the summer of 2011 (in southern PA) I spent the entire summer inside, it was so hot. I would go outside only to and from the office and to and from stores. Cutting the grass the few times I had to do it (drought) was miserable. Up here the heat never lasts more than 2 or 3 days in a row and I do much more outside except on the very hottest days.

That being said, a nice stretch of highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s would be great...don't see it on the 7 day taking us into September so August will end up a few degrees above normal. The past two Augusts had at least a couple days where it was fall-like.

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Aug 25 2016, 11:43 AM


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Winter 2016-17 - Intervale, NH

Snow:
October - T
November - 3"
December - 38.25"
January - 15.75"
February - 46.25"
March - 21.5"
April - 15" (thru 4/4)

Season Total to date - 139.75" (Normal is 80")
First accumulating snow - Nov. 20-21
First significant event (4" plus) - Dec. 11-12
Date snow passed last year's total (44") - Jan. 1

First max below freezing - Dec. 7
First low below 20F - Dec. 4
First low below 10F - Dec. 10
First subzero low - Dec. 16
# of days w/ lows below zero - 8
# of days w/ max below 15F - 5
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 25 2016, 12:33 PM
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CFS is picking up on a less cool September. Massive Aleutian ridge.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Aug 26 2016, 05:37 AM
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Not sure where to put this since it's Summer now but fall coming but can use it to look ahead to winter?

Anyway - Keeping an eye on what the mid level temps are doing.. nice to see a larger area of cooler air happening.. I assume the sun angle is helping. Not sure the Sunrise/set times in the arctic but that may be a helping factor too. (less sunlight?)

Compare this mornings to August 17th. Much more coverage of single digits(C) and below freezing temps.

Purple circle: The coverage of below 10C at 850mb

Red circle: The southern extent is expected to be at that latitude this time of year (its still August) as it's hard to fight all that warmth south of there...but some portion is breaking off at times and heading down into Southern Canada and U.S like few days ago and next week again. But the bulk remaining north of Latitude 55N.

Orange circle: The true cold and and Vortex. Seems stretched out right now with 2 centers?

Attached File  Map56.jpg ( 688.28K ) Number of downloads: 1


Moving ahead with the GFS00z, here is how it looks in 10 days.

Purple & Red: The covers seems a bit more especially the below freezing temps but again the southern extent having hard time pushing south more. Still Expected, its only early September.

Orange: The biggest difference. Notice how much further south the coldest air and Vortex is. Also it consolidated and it sits and spins up there around the Arctic. This will help start freezing over the Arctic in those areas and looks like northern Hudson Bay as well.

Attached File  Map57.jpg ( 709.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Here are the 850mb Anomalies this morning

Attached File  Map58.jpg ( 334.06K ) Number of downloads: 0

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NorEaster07
post Aug 26 2016, 06:05 AM
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Whoa.. been watching for those single digits lately needing that break from this torching record warm summer.. had it few days ago but obvisouly short lived but the morning felt great in the 50s!. but only kept seeing it for 1 day looking ahead then back to high heights and warmth in long range...

GFS6z shows a nice Fall air mass for few days.. hasnt finished loading yet

As Bob Barker would say...."Come on down"!

CODE
GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: DXR    LAT=  41.37 LON=  -73.48 ELE=   456

                                            06Z AUG26   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
FRI 06Z 26-AUG  21.6    17.0    1015      97      66             589     576    
FRI 12Z 26-AUG  22.9    17.4    1015      96      67    0.05     589     576    
FRI 18Z 26-AUG  30.6    16.5    1014      55      50    0.01     591     578    
SAT 00Z 27-AUG  23.8    18.8    1016      63      39    0.00     591     577    
SAT 06Z 27-AUG  19.1    18.2    1019      71      41    0.00     591     575    
SAT 12Z 27-AUG  20.5    16.3    1022      71      25    0.00     592     573    
SAT 18Z 27-AUG  30.9    15.5    1021      38      28    0.00     594     575    
SUN 00Z 28-AUG  21.2    16.7    1022      72      36    0.00     594     575    
SUN 06Z 28-AUG  18.3    15.9    1024      91      47    0.00     594     574    
SUN 12Z 28-AUG  21.1    15.5    1025      83      52    0.00     594     572    
SUN 18Z 28-AUG  29.3    15.0    1023      47      52    0.00     594     573    
MON 00Z 29-AUG  22.4    17.3    1022      72      68    0.00     593     573    
MON 06Z 29-AUG  18.4    16.6    1023      92      82    0.00     591     572    
MON 12Z 29-AUG  20.9    16.2    1022      77      74    0.00     590     571    
MON 18Z 29-AUG  31.0    16.4    1019      46      68    0.00     589     573    
TUE 00Z 30-AUG  23.0    16.9    1018      84      43    0.13     588     573    
TUE 06Z 30-AUG  19.7    17.3    1018      92      42    0.00     586     571    
TUE 12Z 30-AUG  22.4    17.0    1017      86      53    0.00     586     571    
TUE 18Z 30-AUG  31.7    17.5    1014      44      41    0.00     585     572    
WED 00Z 31-AUG  23.6    17.7    1013      83      40    0.09     583     572    
WED 06Z 31-AUG  21.4    17.1    1011      90      48    0.01     581     571    
WED 12Z 31-AUG  21.9    17.5    1011      88      53    0.00     580     570    
WED 18Z 31-AUG  30.6    16.6    1009      40      44    0.00     578     570    
THU 00Z 01-SEP  21.7    14.6    1010      48      14    0.00     578     568    
THU 06Z 01-SEP  15.5    11.7    1012      81      13    0.00     576     565    
THU 12Z 01-SEP  17.0     9.6    1013      74      21    0.00     574     563    
THU 18Z 01-SEP  23.4     9.0    1012      45      13    0.00     573     562    
FRI 00Z 02-SEP  16.3     6.3    1015      53       8    0.00     571     558    
FRI 06Z 02-SEP  10.1     5.1    1017      72       7    0.00     569     555    
FRI 12Z 02-SEP  11.7     5.7    1018      67      47    0.00     569     554    
FRI 18Z 02-SEP  21.4     6.7    1016      39      39    0.00     570     557    
SAT 00Z 03-SEP  15.9     7.5    1017      62      43    0.00     571     557    
SAT 06Z 03-SEP  11.0     7.1    1018      82      53    0.00     571     556    
SAT 12Z 03-SEP  12.9     7.2    1019      73      37    0.00     572     556    
SAT 18Z 03-SEP  21.9     7.2    1017      44      34    0.00     574     559    
SUN 00Z 04-SEP  15.7     7.9    1018      72      37    0.00     576     560    
SUN 06Z 04-SEP  12.5     7.1    1019      84      27    0.00     576     560    
SUN 12Z 04-SEP  14.7     7.1    1020      75      16    0.00     577     561    
SUN 18Z 04-SEP  21.9     7.9    1017      53      17    0.00     577     563    
MON 00Z 05-SEP  16.0     9.0    1015      73      18    0.00     576     563    
MON 06Z 05-SEP  11.7     8.6    1014      88       8    0.00     575     563    
MON 18Z 05-SEP                                                                  
TUE 06Z 06-SEP                                                                  
TUE 18Z 06-SEP                                                                  
WED 06Z 07-SEP                                                                  
WED 18Z 07-SEP                                                                  
THU 06Z 08-SEP                                                                  
THU 18Z 08-SEP                                                                  
FRI 06Z 09-SEP                                                                  
FRI 18Z 09-SEP                                                                  
SAT 06Z 10-SEP                                                                  
SAT 18Z 10-SEP                                                                  
SUN 06Z 11-SEP


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Aug 26 2016, 06:06 AM
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NorEaster07
post Aug 26 2016, 08:18 AM
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EuroEPS has this digging trough with a nice Fall like airmass as well. Friday and Saturday next week. Dews in the 30s and 40s. But doesn't last long. At least these breaks are showing up again. Gees.

Nothing extreme at all but it could be the type you walk outside and be like..."ahhhh, fall is around the corner".... then couple days later you'll be like... "ahhh, what a tease, summer is still here"

Attached File  Euro.jpg ( 306.44K ) Number of downloads: 2

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NorEaster07
post Aug 26 2016, 02:04 PM
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Euro12z 850mb temp anomalies for next Friday. Man I need this bad! Even if its only 1 days worth!

Attached File  Euro1.jpg ( 305.71K ) Number of downloads: 5

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NorEaster07
post Aug 26 2016, 08:17 PM
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Attached File  20160826_211629.png ( 1.4MB ) Number of downloads: 2
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 28 2016, 12:48 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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