 Long Range Fall 2016 Forecast & Discussion, El Nino to La Nina? Hurricanes? Post your fall info here! |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Long-Range U.S. Forecasts  |
 Aug 28 2016, 01:31 PM
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#41
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Founding Member Posts: 39,684 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16  |
QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 28 2016, 01:48 PM)     Uggh. So tired of having to run the AC so much. Bring on Autumn! |
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Aug 28 2016, 02:09 PM
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#42
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 18,837 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 |
QUOTE(RobB @ Aug 28 2016, 02:31 PM) Uggh. So tired of having to run the AC so much. Bring on Autumn! Its disgusting really. Not only that but I been closing my shades as if I'm living in a cave. Misery. Can't be outside long. Cant open the windows. Ugh. We got 1-2 days worth of happiness coming then back to misery 
Map3.jpg ( 248.82K )
Number of downloads: 2 |
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Aug 29 2016, 09:38 AM
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#43
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,003 Joined: 29-January 08 From: Crown Point, IN Member No.: 13,275 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 28 2016, 02:09 PM) Its disgusting really. Not only that but I been closing my shades as if I'm living in a cave. Misery. Can't be outside long. Cant open the windows. Ugh. We got 1-2 days worth of happiness coming then back to misery
Map3.jpg ( 248.82K )
Number of downloads: 2I'm right there with you. I come home from work every afternoon and feel like I've walked into a cave. Can't wait until late October when 70s and 80s are more the exception than the norm. Definitely makes me wonder how long this pattern will last and whether we can break it heading into winter. |
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Aug 29 2016, 10:21 AM
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#44
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 308 Joined: 11-July 10 Member No.: 23,135 |
QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 28 2016, 01:48 PM) Bring on the reds. This has been the best summer we have had in a long time. |
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Aug 29 2016, 12:40 PM
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#45
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,339 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
The CFS forecast for September has almost completely flipped in the past week. It lost the Aleutian low and has been replaced with a massive Aleutian ridge
  
-------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17) Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17) Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Aug 30 2016, 12:28 PM
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#46
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,339 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
How about 40 degree highs in Montana in September?
  -------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17) Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17) Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Aug 31 2016, 11:41 AM
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#47
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,339 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
Could be some Fall-like severe weather with a pattern like this. Heck, there'd be severe weather with this pattern at pretty much any time of the year. What a good pattern for it. Love seeing seasonal transitions... especially when a robust SE ridge is in place.
    -------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17) Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17) Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Aug 31 2016, 06:52 PM
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#48
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,339 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
Canadian and/or Alaskan wildfire smoke plume has engulfed the Plains
 
-------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17) Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17) Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Sep 1 2016, 07:45 AM
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#49
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,748 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
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Sep 1 2016, 07:47 AM
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#50
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,748 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
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Sep 3 2016, 12:08 AM
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#51
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,339 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
Nina forcing is forecast to continue through September. If I'm not mistaken, looks like the forcing will also continue to support an active Atlantic given other conditions not being an inhibitor (dry Saharan layer? Something like that)
This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 3 2016, 12:10 AM -------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17) Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17) Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Sep 3 2016, 11:50 PM
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#52
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,339 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
GFS keeps trying to drop trough after trough into the east around mid-month. We'll see how this goes.
-------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17) Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17) Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Sep 4 2016, 11:51 AM
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#53
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 18,837 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 |
How about a comparison?
Feb 8, 2016 NorEaster with snow VS Sept 4, 2016 Post-Tropical Hermine without Rain.
Satellite16.jpg ( 1.47MB )
Number of downloads: 5 |
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Sep 6 2016, 12:48 PM
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#54
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,339 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
What's a better way to start Meteorological Fall than a 90 knot negatively tilted trough?
 
-------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17) Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17) Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Sep 6 2016, 02:32 PM
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#55
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,003 Joined: 29-January 08 From: Crown Point, IN Member No.: 13,275 |
QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 6 2016, 12:48 PM) What's a better way to start Meteorological Fall than a 90 knot negatively tilted trough? That trough spins up a gnarly western GLC... 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png ( 168.91K )
Number of downloads: 2Too early for a thread? This post has been edited by weather_boy2010: Sep 6 2016, 02:40 PM |
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Sep 6 2016, 05:34 PM
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#56
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,339 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Sep 6 2016, 03:32 PM) That trough spins up a gnarly western GLC...
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png ( 168.91K )
Number of downloads: 2Too early for a thread? Yup 
-------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17) Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17) Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Sep 7 2016, 05:28 AM
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#57
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 18,837 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 |
Should be fun comparing soon. Here's a look at the 850mb temps and Upper Level Jet stream pattern this morning..
If you want cold you need thoughs troughs to start digging down into Canada so the Polar Air can bleed down in it. Next week we start to see this as the Vortex comes closer but it moderates a lot. Also need the Hudson Bay to freeze over eventually. Baby steps. Still early. That's a lot of cold air building in the Arctic  Just to show you... here's next week. See the position of the Vortex difference? Wont be an extremely cold trough into the U.S, its only September but nice to see the Vortex making a visit to North America. (means nothing for winter, still early) 
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Sep 7 2016, 07:25 AM
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#58
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,748 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 7 2016, 05:28 AM) Should be fun comparing soon. Here's a look at the 850mb temps and Upper Level Jet stream pattern this morning.. If you want cold you need thoughs troughs to start digging down into Canada so the Polar Air can bleed down in it. Next week we start to see this as the Vortex comes closer but it moderates a lot. Also need the Hudson Bay to freeze over eventually. Baby steps. Still early. That's a lot of cold air building in the Arctic http://i.imgur.com/EfwhKjb.jpg[/img] Just to show you... here's next week. See the position of the Vortex difference? Wont be an extremely cold trough into the U.S, its only September but nice to see the Vortex making a visit to North America. (means nothing for winter, still early) [img]http://i.imgur.com/uVgs1WB.jp] Looks like Alaska is pretty chilly now and then....wonder how long its been like that....should make for a good season end to "Gold Rush" later this year for any other watchers 
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Sep 7 2016, 07:55 AM
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#59
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 18,837 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 7 2016, 08:25 AM) Looks like Alaska is pretty chilly now and then....wonder how long its been like that....should make for a good season end to "Gold Rush" later this year for any other watchers lol. Looks like Anchorage finally got the break. Gees. "Anchorage's run of consecutive days with a high of 60°F+ ended today at 90 days." https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/...964651722092544 
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Sep 7 2016, 08:08 AM
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#60
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,748 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 7 2016, 07:55 AM) lol. Looks like Anchorage finally got the break. Gees. "Anchorage's run of consecutive days with a high of 60°F+ ended today at 90 days." https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/...964651722092544 that's unbelievable
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