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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 15 2017, 10:01 AM
Post #21




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TWC posted a rather simplistic argument for the argument for a more active than normal severe season. I don't fully agree with the generalization; look at 2010-11

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/warm...-severe-weather


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Feb 17 2017, 01:33 AM
Post #22




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Spring is this forum's ugly ginger foster child. It would be wrong to just terminate it's existence all together, so it's instead kept out of sight....down below....in the basement of the long-range thread, until it's lonely cries can be ignored no longer.

This post has been edited by snowsux: Feb 17 2017, 01:35 AM
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Duckdive1969
post Feb 17 2017, 10:50 AM
Post #23




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My first post! I am looking forward to a warm spring.
Cheers!
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Gnutella
post Feb 17 2017, 03:41 PM
Post #24




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QUOTE(Duckdive1969 @ Feb 17 2017, 10:50 AM) *
My first post! I am looking forward to a warm spring.
Cheers!


I'm already having a warm spring.
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snowsux
post Feb 17 2017, 08:18 PM
Post #25




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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Feb 17 2017, 03:41 PM) *
I'm already having a warm spring.


Is that you in the profile pic?
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Gnutella
post Feb 18 2017, 11:28 AM
Post #26




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QUOTE(snowsux @ Feb 17 2017, 08:18 PM) *
Is that you in the profile pic?


No.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 18 2017, 11:46 AM
Post #27




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Hmmmmm. Ash cloud reaching 38,000 feet (7 miles) up and in Northern Hemisphere. Wonder if will have spring, summer or Fall implications. Not sure how much has plummed up or the type of ash though. But thats pretty high.

https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/832696069641244672

Attached File  Screenshot_20170218_114318.png ( 1.28MB ) Number of downloads: 2
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 18 2017, 11:52 AM
Post #28




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 18 2017, 11:46 AM) *
Hmmmmm. Ash cloud reaching 38,000 feet (7 miles) up and in Northern Hemisphere. Wonder if will have spring, summer or Fall implications. Not sure how much has plummed up or the type of ash though. But thats pretty high.

https://twitter.com/NWSAnchorage/status/832696069641244672

Attached File  Screenshot_20170218_114318.png ( 1.28MB ) Number of downloads: 2

Probably not. The late 1800's volcanic winter was made after a volcano put 20 km^3 of ash 40 kilometers (24 miles/131000 feet) in the air.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Feb 18 2017, 11:39 PM
Post #29




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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Feb 18 2017, 11:28 AM) *
No.


I faintly recall someone with your screen name from some other forum...Can't remember which one though. I dunno what it means though. Could be other Gnutella's out there.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 19 2017, 12:40 PM
Post #30




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I found this neat website on the Twitter machine. The first leaf isn't that far away from S OH.



https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 19 2017, 12:41 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 19 2017, 02:23 PM
Post #31




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Another 10mb zonal wind reversal. But remember when some used the late January SSW/early February brief reversal as a cause for a cold mid-late February? wink.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Feb 20 2017, 12:19 PM
Post #32




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Accu Long Ranger Paulie P video:

"It seems like now you need to Throw out these cold analogs because they just keep steering you in the wrong direction. These temperatures seem to just achieve higher than what anything is showing you in front of your face. Its amazing. You got to put on paper and then add like another 3 degrees it seems like for everything ".


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 20 2017, 09:53 PM
Post #33




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Latest TNI update:

+0.690


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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snowsux
post Feb 20 2017, 10:58 PM
Post #34




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 20 2017, 09:53 PM) *
Latest TNI update:

+0.690


Hi Peter. What's up? Quite in here, huh? These spring threads always remind me of the airport in the Langolier's.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 21 2017, 11:51 AM
Post #35




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Accuweather Long Ranger Paulie P says he changed March & Spring outlook. Can't find an article on it yet but here's 2 from his video today.

He left New England "normal" due to the snowpack and temps may struggle on the warm surges

The above normal precip in the east he says he can see being south more but he's worried the Southeast ridge will deflect the main storms north more.





In the words of Paulie P "Ummm, PNA says it all"




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NorEaster07
post Feb 21 2017, 04:44 PM
Post #36




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Daylight length. Rapid increase now. I noticed the 5pm lightness couple weeks but havent noticed lately. I guess i'll notice next month

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snowsux
post Feb 21 2017, 05:15 PM
Post #37




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 21 2017, 11:51 AM) *
Accuweather Long Ranger Paulie P says he changed March & Spring outlook.


...And now he stands alone. Defiant 'till the bitter end....
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jdrenken
post Feb 21 2017, 08:16 PM
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QUOTE(Duckdive1969 @ Feb 17 2017, 09:50 AM) *
My first post! I am looking forward to a warm spring.
Cheers!


Welcome to the forums!


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Duckdive1969
post Feb 21 2017, 10:32 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 21 2017, 08:16 PM) *
Welcome to the forums!


Thank you very much. I have been a lurker for many years.
I am trying to learn more about weather as I grew up wanting to work in the weather field.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 22 2017, 04:19 PM
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I didnt think would be too soon from South Carolina but he's got a point.

https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/834492529852764162

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