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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 18 2017, 02:01 AM
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Like I posted a bit ago... I can't imagine it's terribly often that Nino 1+2 is warmer than Nino 4. There's currently a 2.4 degree anomaly difference between Nino 1+2 and 4. In actual temps, Nino 1+2 is 0.7C warmer than 4.

Obviously, the other event where this happened would be 97-98. But it actually didn't happen at all in the winter, only happened in March 98.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 18 2017, 02:03 AM


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MaineJay
post Mar 20 2017, 05:36 AM
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Peru

QUOTE
Abnormal El Nino in Peru unleashes deadly downpours; more flooding seen

By Mitra Taj | LIMA
A sudden and abnormal warming of Pacific waters off Peru has unleashed the deadliest downpours in decades, with landslides and raging rivers sweeping away people, clogging highways and destroying crops.

At least 62 people have died and more than 70,000 have become homeless as Peru's rainy season has delivered 10 times as much rainfall than usual, authorities said Friday.

About half of Peru has been declared in emergency to expedite resources to the hardest hit areas, mostly in the north where rainfall has broken records in several districts, said Prime Minister Fernando Zavala.

Peru is bracing itself for another month of flooding.

A local El Nino phenomenon, the warming of surface sea temperatures in the Pacific, will likely continue along Peru's northern coast at least through April, said Dimitri Gutierrez, a scientist with Peru's El Nino committee.

Coastal El Ninos in Peru tend to be preceded by the El Nino phenomenon in the Equatorial Central Pacific, which can trigger flooding and droughts around the world, said Gutierrez. But this year's event in Peru has developed from local conditions.

The U.S. weather agency has put the chances of an El Nino developing in the second half of 2017 at 50-55 percent.

While precipitation in Peru has not exceeded the powerful El Nino of 1998, more rain is falling in shorter periods of time - rapidly filling streets and rivers, said Jorge Chavez, a general tasked with coordinating the government's response.

"We've never seen anything like this before," said Chavez. "From one moment to the next, sea temperatures rose and winds that keep precipitation from reaching land subsided."


http://www.reuters.com/article/us-peru-floods-idUSKBN16O2V5


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 12:23 PM
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Now it's a whopping 0.9C warmer than Nino 4


CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
22FEB2017     28.5 2.3     27.3 0.7     27.1 0.3     28.0-0.1
01MAR2017     28.5 2.2     27.1 0.4     26.9 0.0     28.1-0.1
08MAR2017     28.5 2.1     27.4 0.4     26.8-0.2     27.8-0.3
15MAR2017     29.1 2.6     27.9 0.8     27.5 0.3     28.2 0.0


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 01:30 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 20 2017, 06:36 AM) *


Wow that is impressive! I feel we are really starting to get into the idea of stuck patterns now not only in the northern hemisphere but now what could be in the southern hemisphere.

Still maybe a little too early to make that call but been noticing, over the past lets say close to decade, when a pattern locks in it locks in for quite awhile.



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MaineJay
post Mar 20 2017, 07:12 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 20 2017, 02:30 PM) *
Wow that is impressive! I feel we are really starting to get into the idea of stuck patterns now not only in the northern hemisphere but now what could be in the southern hemisphere.

Still maybe a little too early to make that call but been noticing, over the past lets say close to decade, when a pattern locks in it locks in for quite awhile.



Looks like some areas in the western part of Peru are receiving a whole year worth of rain. But hard to tell exactly.

Attached File  peru_bolivia_prec.jpg ( 336.91K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  gfs_apcpn_samer_52.png ( 171.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 20 2017, 08:18 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 20 2017, 08:12 PM) *
Looks like some areas in the western part of Peru are receiving a whole year worth of rain. But hard to tell exactly.

Attached File  peru_bolivia_prec.jpg ( 336.91K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  gfs_apcpn_samer_52.png ( 171.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Impressive yea I always had thought Peru was one of those locations that received very little because of its location with topography. I think it was only like the eastern regions that saw much because of flow as that latitude.



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MaineJay
post Mar 21 2017, 06:30 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 18 2017, 02:39 AM) *
Michael Ventrice on Twitter has been sporadically posting about ENSO. He has been posting about how we're still seeing much more of a La Nina pattern than anything else. In fact, his atmospheric ENSO index continues to indicate we're moving into more of a La Nina pattern than anything else.



Another daming piece of evidence



I feel like an El Nino is the safe bet... but this time 2 years ago, there was a lot of talk about 1997-98 due to the evolution we were seeing. Based on the evolution we've seen so far (as mentioned above), I have a feeling this is going to be quite the unique Nino event. You know, other than going from Super Nino to La Nina to El Nino.

But I'm definitely betting against anything more than a moderate Nino.



I know this guy is the expert, but the people most closely tied to ENSO, are those of Peru. While his "index" (which I don't know what parameters it's based on) may suggest "la Niņa" conditions, it doesn't seem to encapsulate what's going on with regard to actual sensible weather. I'd like him to tell the people of Peru that this isn't some weird el Niņo event.

4C+ anomalies
Attached File  color_newdisp_anomaly_100W_35W_25S_20N_ophi0.png ( 310.77K ) Number of downloads: 0



And if the GFS is right, we will see plenty more rain in Peru. And still waiting for upwelling to establish.

Attached File  20170321_063522.jpg ( 553K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
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//////////////////////////////////////////
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//

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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 07:29 PM
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His index is based upon the atmospheric response to the SSTs, so it isn't necessarily proportional to what's going on across the entire basin. It's kinda like the OLR or VP200, except varies on a larger time scale and is more reflective of a monthly or seasonal pattern than a daily to weekly.

One note about the zonal winds...

Yeah, the eastern region is on fire... relative to average. As I mentioned before, Nino 1+2's SSTs are actually warmer than Nino 4... which is very rare. That inherently also means it's warmer than Nino 3 and 3.4.

This means, if there's a WWB from around the Nino 3 region, it's going to be pushing the cooler waters from Nino 3.4 and 3 into Nino 1+2. This is unlike a normal El Nino case, where Nino 1+2 is cooler than every other region and a WWB pushes warmer waters from the west into the region.

Furthermore, if we want an El Nino to form, those enhanced trades across the central and western portions of the Pacific need to go away... because that's keeping those regions cooler than average. A cooler than average source region is going to be detrimental to the spread of significant oceanic warmth. The graphic you posted clearly shows a reluctance for the atmosphere to encourage an El Nino to develop. I think this coincides well with the ENSO atmospheric index showing a Nina response.



Again, I'd expect this Nina response/tendency to eventually go away later this year... but right now it's not really showing signs of going away.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 21 2017, 07:36 PM


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MaineJay
post Mar 21 2017, 08:13 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 21 2017, 08:29 PM) *
His index is based upon the atmospheric response to the SSTs, so it isn't necessarily proportional to what's going on across the entire basin. It's kinda like the OLR or VP200, except varies on a larger time scale and is more reflective of a monthly or seasonal pattern than a daily to weekly.

One note about the zonal winds...

Yeah, the eastern region is on fire... relative to average. As I mentioned before, Nino 1+2's SSTs are actually warmer than Nino 4... which is very rare. That inherently also means it's warmer than Nino 3 and 3.4.

This means, if there's a WWB from around the Nino 3 region, it's going to be pushing the cooler waters from Nino 3.4 and 3 into Nino 1+2. This is unlike a normal El Nino case, where Nino 1+2 is cooler than every other region and a WWB pushes warmer waters from the west into the region.

Furthermore, if we want an El Nino to form, those enhanced trades across the central and western portions of the Pacific need to go away... because that's keeping those regions cooler than average. A cooler than average source region is going to be detrimental to the spread of significant oceanic warmth. The graphic you posted clearly shows a reluctance for the atmosphere to encourage an El Nino to develop. I think this coincides well with the ENSO atmospheric index showing a Nina response.



Again, I'd expect this Nina response/tendency to eventually go away later this year... but right now it's not really showing signs of going away.


This makes little sense to me. If it's Niņa like, why are the officials in Peru warning if el Niņo like conditions? These are record floods. Perhaps I'm being pedantic.

A reversal of the equatorial current indicates there isn't any Niņa coupling, otherwise we would see cooling. I'm not saying we are in an el Niņo, but the coldest water is always upwelled along the Peruvian coast. It's virtually impossible to advent colder than *normal* water west to east in regions 1+2. To do what you are saying would require incredible mid ocean upwelling.

Attached File  ezgif_3_0c5770df93.gif ( 629.48K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  pent.anom.xz.temp.0n.30d.gif ( 61.78K ) Number of downloads: 0


The SST configuration is very unusual. I'm making zero assumptions about what ENSO will be in 6 months when it will matter. I'm saying this "Niņa response" isn't happening, the enhanced easterlies on that 6-10 wind map are doing bupkis.

Attached File  pent.anom.xz.u.0n.30d.gif ( 85.47K ) Number of downloads: 0



And consistent with all winter, the Niņa wasn't able to have any discernible influence on AAM.
Attached File  prev60_phase.png ( 159.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


So long as upwelling is suppressed along Peru, I didn't see how the ENSO regions cool.

I agree that less easterlies wood promote el Niņo. But it keeps warming in spite of these winds.
Attached File  cdas_sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png ( 131.33K ) Number of downloads: 0



And besides, 1 standard deviation isn't really anomalous. Cause his "strongest la Niņa state" claim is based on a 1SD "anomaly". I find that being loose with one's words at best, purposely misleading at worst.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 21 2017, 08:24 PM


--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far" - Theodore Roosevelt.

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//////////////////////////////////////////
//////////////////////////////////////////

***Bonus snow***
//////////////////////////////////////////
//

130" season to date
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 21 2017, 09:25 PM
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How can Peru be feeling significant El Nino effects if the atmosphere is responding like a Nina?

I imagine it like this. It may or may not be right, or make sense. My writing isn't always as clear as my ideas are in my head.

Unlike the most of the world, mostly the mid-latitudes, the ENSO impacts in Peru are more direct than pretty much anywhere else in the world. Water just off the coast is running over 2C above average. That increased warmth and moisture along with the orographic forcing all along the SA west coast allows for that rain.

But since the Hadley cell is what impacts our weather, wee gotta look at the entire basin. Over approximately the past month, we've seen a large area of -OLR directly on the Equator stretching from 160E to about 150W. Then, of course, there's the +OLR in the east... from about 110W to the coast at about 80W.



Clearly the -OLR is the larger area. So perhaps we're seeing more of a La Nina response in the mid-latitudes due to this area's effect on the Hadley cell.

----

Another possible explanation of how MV's index is showing La Nina while western SA countries see El Nino effects:

Again, the El Nino-like effects are just a result of very warm water off the coast.

But a west-based Nina (Nino 4 < rest of regions, less convection further west than average) and east-based Nino (Nino 1+2 > rest of regions, more convection further east than average) see a very similar temp pattern in the CONUS; torch east, cold west. Since we're seeing a pattern that could be mistaken for an extreme east-based Nino (Nino 1+2 is at least 4x more anomalous than the rest of the regions), maybe this unique pattern is messing with his index and giving a weird signal that it's a La Nina when it's really an east-based Nino response. Both produce a similar temp pattern.

Something that gives credence to this theory is how wet the west US has been. I think west-based Ninas favor more precip in the PacNW (2010-11 best example I can think of), while east-based Ninos favor more in California (see 97-98).

--

All the same, the TNI is currently quite positive... though not as positive as some of the other significant La Nina years.

http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAP...ns/1-15/Lee.pdf

Currently we're at +1.097; most positive since 2010-12 (La Nina)

At this time in 2011, TNI was +1.530.
In 1974, it was +1.970.

Since TNI is an index based on the difference between Nino 4 and 1+2, it's possible to have +TNI without a La Nina... it usually happens in east-based Ninos. 82-83 and 97-98 were extreme +TNI

Here's the average +TNI pattern



From December 1, 2016 to March 19, 2017


So we are seeing a pattern that's generally reflective (not perfect, but close) of the +TNI we're in, which exists with west-based Ninas and east-based Ninos.

I guess it comes to this: call this ENSO/ENSO response what you want... but there ends up being a common denominator. That being the TNI, or more simply, just the long-term pattern we've experienced. This pattern took a brief hiatus in the 3 weeks of March, but it looks to return for the end of March and at least the beginning of April after dominating for most of the winter.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 21 2017, 09:33 PM


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- The Great Blizzard of 1978
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 22 2017, 01:45 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 18 2017, 02:39 AM) *
Michael Ventrice on Twitter has been sporadically posting about ENSO. He has been posting about how we're still seeing much more of a La Nina pattern than anything else. In fact, his atmospheric ENSO index continues to indicate we're moving into more of a La Nina pattern than anything else.



Another daming piece of evidence



I feel like an El Nino is the safe bet... but this time 2 years ago, there was a lot of talk about 1997-98 due to the evolution we were seeing. Based on the evolution we've seen so far (as mentioned above), I have a feeling this is going to be quite the unique Nino event. You know, other than going from Super Nino to La Nina to El Nino.

But I'm definitely betting against anything more than a moderate Nino.

CPC is not basing their El Nino/La Nina current conditions/forecast on an atmospheric metric, they are basing it on SSTs that clearly indicate the Nina is over with.

It's well known that the extratropical atmospheric response lags the SST forcing so I don't find it very surprising that the current atmospheric conditions are showing a La Nina pattern.

The reason why we look at ENSO is for seasonal prediction so the fact that an El Nino is emerging is only relevant to the extratropical atmospheric circulation at least a season after it has emerged. The tropical response is clearly more direct as the warm SSTAs have only be around for ~1 month and Peru has already experienced significant impacts.

Interestingly, literature suggests East Pacific El Nino events will have reduced frequency relative to Central Pacific El Nino events due to climate change so I imagine this EP event will provide some head-scratching.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 22 2017, 03:58 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 21 2017, 10:25 PM) *
How can Peru be feeling significant El Nino effects if the atmosphere is responding like a Nina?

I imagine it like this. It may or may not be right, or make sense. My writing isn't always as clear as my ideas are in my head.

Unlike the most of the world, mostly the mid-latitudes, the ENSO impacts in Peru are more direct than pretty much anywhere else in the world. Water just off the coast is running over 2C above average. That increased warmth and moisture along with the orographic forcing all along the SA west coast allows for that rain.

But since the Hadley cell is what impacts our weather, wee gotta look at the entire basin. Over approximately the past month, we've seen a large area of -OLR directly on the Equator stretching from 160E to about 150W. Then, of course, there's the +OLR in the east... from about 110W to the coast at about 80W.



Clearly the -OLR is the larger area. So perhaps we're seeing more of a La Nina response in the mid-latitudes due to this area's effect on the Hadley cell.

----

Another possible explanation of how MV's index is showing La Nina while western SA countries see El Nino effects:

Again, the El Nino-like effects are just a result of very warm water off the coast.

But a west-based Nina (Nino 4 < rest of regions, less convection further west than average) and east-based Nino (Nino 1+2 > rest of regions, more convection further east than average) see a very similar temp pattern in the CONUS; torch east, cold west. Since we're seeing a pattern that could be mistaken for an extreme east-based Nino (Nino 1+2 is at least 4x more anomalous than the rest of the regions), maybe this unique pattern is messing with his index and giving a weird signal that it's a La Nina when it's really an east-based Nino response. Both produce a similar temp pattern.

Something that gives credence to this theory is how wet the west US has been. I think west-based Ninas favor more precip in the PacNW (2010-11 best example I can think of), while east-based Ninos favor more in California (see 97-98).

--

All the same, the TNI is currently quite positive... though not as positive as some of the other significant La Nina years.

http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAP...ns/1-15/Lee.pdf

Currently we're at +1.097; most positive since 2010-12 (La Nina)

At this time in 2011, TNI was +1.530.
In 1974, it was +1.970.

Since TNI is an index based on the difference between Nino 4 and 1+2, it's possible to have +TNI without a La Nina... it usually happens in east-based Ninos. 82-83 and 97-98 were extreme +TNI

Here's the average +TNI pattern



From December 1, 2016 to March 19, 2017


So we are seeing a pattern that's generally reflective (not perfect, but close) of the +TNI we're in, which exists with west-based Ninas and east-based Ninos.

I guess it comes to this: call this ENSO/ENSO response what you want... but there ends up being a common denominator. That being the TNI, or more simply, just the long-term pattern we've experienced. This pattern took a brief hiatus in the 3 weeks of March, but it looks to return for the end of March and at least the beginning of April after dominating for most of the winter.


Seems plausible and makes sense with regards to TNI. Only thing that got me was your reference to OLR you get -OLR with precipitation regions versus non precip regions. From the picture you posted it was of the precip pattern over the time frame. Which shows a large region in the central to western PAC of below normal precip or +OLR and -OLR along the peru coastal region and over maritime.


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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Stratosphere Discussion:
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 22 2017, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 22 2017, 04:58 PM) *
Seems plausible and makes sense with regards to TNI. Only thing that got me was your reference to OLR you get -OLR with precipitation regions versus non precip regions. From the picture you posted it was of the precip pattern over the time frame. Which shows a large region in the central to western PAC of below normal precip or +OLR and -OLR along the peru coastal region and over maritime.

Oops. Here's the OLR for the same time frame. Looks like the image I mistakenly posted got corrupted.



@STL... yes, I know CPC goes by the SSTs. But I was talking about the atmospheric response to it. And valid point about the lagging forcing... however, we're more than 3 months past the peak of the Nina, and we're seeing the strongest forcing so far. Sooo....


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 22 2017, 05:43 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 22 2017, 06:30 PM) *
Oops. Here's the OLR for the same time frame. Looks like the image I mistakenly posted got corrupted.



@STL... yes, I know CPC goes by the SSTs. But I was talking about the atmospheric response to it. And valid point about the lagging forcing... however, we're more than 3 months past the peak of the Nina, and we're seeing the strongest forcing so far. Sooo....


Large large region of +OLR makes sense since the pattern in mid latitudes has been rather stormy out west in NE PAC region compared to the sporadicness we have been seeing in the eastern US.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 22 2017, 06:47 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 22 2017, 06:43 PM) *
Large large region of +OLR makes sense since the pattern in mid latitudes has been rather stormy out west in NE PAC region compared to the sporadicness we have been seeing in the eastern US.

I think the color scales have you thrown off or I'm misunderstanding which "large region of +OLR" you're talking about.

QUOTE
Large large region of +OLR makes sense since the pattern in mid latitudes has been rather stormy out west in NE PAC region


+OLR means suppressed convection/clearer skies/La Nina.

There's a region of +OLR in the NE Pacific (GOA), which suggests drier than normal weather. PacNW saw -OLR which does imply wetter than average weather.

Or maybe you're just talking about the OLR along the equator?


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 22 2017, 06:53 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 22 2017, 07:47 PM) *
I think the color scales have you thrown off or I'm misunderstanding which "large region of +OLR" you're talking about.
+OLR means suppressed convection/clearer skies/La Nina.

There's a region of +OLR in the NE Pacific (GOA), which suggests drier than normal weather. PacNW saw -OLR which does imply wetter than average weather.

Or maybe you're just talking about the OLR along the equator?


Bingo you get suppression in one region while uplift in another. Makes sense if you think about it.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 22 2017, 06:55 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 22 2017, 07:53 PM) *
Bingo you get suppression in one region while uplift in another. Makes sense if you think about it.

Gotcha. Yeah, that's the walker cell for ya. The Super Nino-like E Pac water also helps.


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- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
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grace
post Mar 23 2017, 08:24 AM
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scwxman
post Mar 23 2017, 09:42 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 23 2017, 11:43 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Mar 23 2017, 09:24 AM) *
Godzilla lurks & waits smile.gif

rolleyes.gif laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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