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Please just refer to me by my first name, Peter. I'm 22 years old, from West Chester, Ohio. As of Fall 2015, I'm a student at Ohio University studying Meteorology. I'm specifically interested in severe weather and tornadoes.
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Athens, Ohio
Born June-30-1993
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My Content
15 Mar 2018
There's strong agreement with analogs as well as obvious signs from operational models that there may be a significant severe event in the deep south on Monday. The biggest question right now is the ability of the atmosphere to destabilize after morning convection. As of right now, there's no need for concern about that on any models... but still something that could change and mess up the forecast.

Morning convection seen here

I suspect that's an MCS... and if so, watch for outflow boundaries to locally enhance tornado activity or initiate storms later.

Precip later toward the end of the event (precip from 00z to 06z)

500mb at 00z


The analogs I spoke of... % of 15 analogs with at least 1 severe report

% of 15 analogs with at least 1 tornado report
11 Mar 2018
GEFS analogs as well as Euro and GFS OP are picking up on severe weather in the Plains, possibly spreading into the OV/lower Great Lakes the day after (but we all know how that goes)

Both models have an intense negatively tilted trough coming into the Plains. Appears to be enough moisture ahead of it and, without a doubt, the focus is on eastern OK/eastern KS/Arkansas.

% of analogs based on 105 GEFS analogs



5 Mar 2018
SPC has been talking about severe potential in this time frame for a couple days, and now it seems the models are starting to agree on some severe potential.

It'll happen in some pretty chaotic flow. Split flow in the west, a trough in the northern Plains, a separate one in the southern Plains, and then of course the departing Nor'easter.

Probably would miss this event if you looked exclusively at 500mb. No big ridge ahead of it but the job gets done anyway.


Sounding in NE TX

Euro has similar CAPE and 500mb pattern, but low-level winds are weaker. GFS would have a significant tornado threat, Euro would have more of a hail/wind threat.
26 Feb 2018
Currently a day 3 slight risk for severe weather west of Dixie alley. I added Midwest into it because GFS is showing potential for some action up near the warm front. Low-level winds are pretty weak, but speed shear is very strong. I think this would make for low-topped splitting supercells. In the warm sector, everything is in place for supercells.

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2018

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z



Thunderstorms associated with a severe threat will be possible on
Wednesday from east Texas into the Arklatex and lower Mississippi
Valley. Wind damage and hail will be the primary threats.

...Southern Plains/Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Rockies on
Wednesday as southwest mid-level flow remains over the southern
Plains. At the surface, a low is forecast to deepen near the
Oklahoma-Kansas state line as the warm sector continues to moisten
during the day. Surface dewpoints from east Texas across Louisiana
into the lower Mississippi Valley are forecast to be in the lower to
mid 60s F by midday. As a result, SBCAPE values are forecast to
increase into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range across parts of the warm
sector by afternoon. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop along
the corridor of strongest instability from east Texas to western
Mississippi with this activity spreading east-northeastward across
the slight risk area during the late afternoon and early evening.

A 90 to 110 kt mid-level jet is forecast to move into the southern
Plains on Wednesday with the exit region of the mid-level jet
spreading over the slight-risk area during the mid to late
afternoon. This will enhance lift and help to create strong
deep-layer shear to support severe storms. GFS forecast soundings at
00Z/Thursday from east Texas into northern Louisiana and southern
Arkansas show SBCAPE values from 750 to 1000 J/kg with 0-6 km shear
in the 55 to 65 kt range. This should be enough for wind damage and
hail with storms that can become organized.

Out of 15 analogs, only 5 had little to no severe weather. The rest of the analogs were busy days. A couple analogs have two areas of severe weather like I suspect on the GFS.
19 Feb 2018
SPC has introduced a decent sized day 6 outlook.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

Better agreement/consistency is evident at this time with respect to
various medium-range model runs through a majority of the day 4-8
period, as compared to 24 hours prior. Models in general depict
that a major short-wave trough -- digging across California and the
Great Basin day 4 (Thursday) will eject east across the Desert
Southwest/southern Rockies day 5, and then the central and southern
Plains day 6 (Saturday). While this feature is progged to
weaken/deamplify with time due to persistence of southeastern U.S.
ridging, surface lee cyclogenesis is expected over the southern High
Plains early in the day which will deepen/shift quickly
east-northeast into the Ohio Valley/Midwest overnight. Ahead of
this system, low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico
should prove sufficient for at least some warm-sector CAPE
development which -- combined with what should be a favorable
background lower- and middle-tropospheric wind field -- suggests
that some severe weather risk may evolve Saturday. While degree of
instability may limit risk to some degree, ample evidence exists to
suggest initial introduction of 15% severe weather probability from
the Arklatex vicinity east across parts of the lower Mississippi and
into the Tennessee Valleys.

As the weakening upper system shifts quickly east-northeast across
the lower Great Lakes region day 7 (Sunday), expect the trailing
surface front to weaken and become oriented increasingly
west-to-east across the Gulf Coast region, suggestive of diminished
severe potential. In addition, model differences increasing through
the end of the period result in reduced confidence with respect to
the convective forecast through early next week.

12z GFS analogs (per CIPS) shows a strong signal for a severe outbreak in that region; of the 15 analogs, at least 60% have at least 1 severe report over a large area.

Here's the analog breakdown. I'd call 6 of those analogs a significant outbreak.

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