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> June 28 - July 3 Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk Forecasts & OBS
WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 11:43 AM
Post #41




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QUOTE
A cold front moving through the state will bring scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Some of the storms may become severe, with the main threats being large hail and strong winds. In addition, unusually frequent/intense lightning will be likely, so people attending outdoor events should pay careful attention to the local weather. Hot weather will continue today with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values from 100 to 105. The cold front will move southward and stall out from southern Missouri to the Ohio River Valley Sunday and Monday. This will cause storms to be more isolated and restricted mainly to the southern half of the area.
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 12:05 PM
Post #42




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QUOTE
Springfield, Capital Airport
Lat: 39.86 Lon: -89.67 Elev: 586
Last Update on Jul 2, 11:52 am CDT


Fair

90 F(32 C)
Humidity: 63 %
Wind Speed: SW 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.03" (1016.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 76 F (24 C)
Heat Index: 102 F (39 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
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CentralIllinois
post Jul 2 2011, 12:09 PM
Post #43




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I'm looking forward to this intense lightning later cool.gif


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 01:17 PM
Post #44




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I find this MD interesting. Was a bit discouraged when I seen the outline, but it has LSX in the WFO section. So at least appears the areas SW are still in the game




QUOTE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...EXTREME NWRN OH...NRN IND...CNTRL/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021806Z - 021900Z

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY THIS AFTN FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION...GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TAIL-END OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL GRAZE PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST THIS AFTN WITH WEAK LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO
REACH AS FAR S AS CNTRL IL/NRN IND BY THIS EVENING. AN INITIAL TSTM
HAS FORMED OVER LWR MI AMID SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP AND EXPECT THAT
STORMS WILL BACKBUILD WSW ALONG SEGMENTED COLD FRONT TOWARD CNTRL IL
WITH TIME THIS AFTN. MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES TO 8 C PER KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SVR STORMS/ISOLD
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT ABOVE
INGREDIENTS WILL COMPENSATE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

..RACY.. 07/02/2011


ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...IND...L
T...ILX...
MKX...LSX...DVN...
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SEMIweather
post Jul 2 2011, 01:16 PM
Post #45




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 2 2011, 02:17 PM) *
I find this MD interesting. Was a bit discouraged when I seen the outline, but it has LSX in the WFO section. So at least appears the areas SW are still in the game


They often mention WFOs that surround the area outlined by the MCD.

Anyways, getting somewhat excited about later today here. Not sure we'll get anything but if we do it will be severe. Either way this heat is awesome. Attached Image


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SEMIweather
post Jul 2 2011, 01:22 PM
Post #46




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WW out for much of Lower MI, Northern IN, and NW Ohio.


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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 01:29 PM
Post #47




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QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
225 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN INDIANA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 225 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 20 MILES EAST OF BAD AXE
MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI.
VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL PROMOTE LARGE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. UPSCALE ORGANIZATION
MAY RESULT IN BOW ECHO DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26030.


...HART

.


This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Jul 2 2011, 01:30 PM
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snowlover2
post Jul 2 2011, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Jul 2 2011, 02:22 PM) *
WW out for much of Lower MI, Northern IN, and NW Ohio.


Interesting that its out for almost 9 hours as opposed to the normal 6-7 hours.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:3

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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SEMIweather
post Jul 2 2011, 01:39 PM
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Special 18z sounding from DTX...looks like we're pretty much good to go.

Attached Image


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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 02:18 PM
Post #50




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Ugh, hopewfully this isn't another scenario like last time. Had a windshift a few hours before the front and it all but stabilized the atmosphere. Just had a windshift in the last hour, I think we'll be alright this time, hopefully anyhow

QUOTE
Springfield, Capital Airport
Lat: 39.86 Lon: -89.67 Elev: 586
Last Update on Jul 2, 1:52 pm CDT


Fair

93 F
(34 C) Humidity: 60 %
Wind Speed: W 8 MPH
Barometer: 30.02" (1015.8 mb)
Dewpoint: 77 F (25 C)
Heat Index: 107 F (42 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 02:43 PM
Post #51




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Newest outlook









QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2011

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
WRN NEB AND NWRN KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY NEWD
INTO LOWER MI...WRN PA AND WRN NY...

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

PULSE STORMS HAVE INCREASED ALONG PERIPHERIES OF 5 PERCENT AREAS
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE SERN STATES...AND HAVE EXPANDED LOW
END WIND PROBS ACCORDINGLY.

ELSEWHERE...STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
LOWER MI SWWD INTO INDIANA AND IL WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

CONTINUED HEATING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MAINLY HAIL AND
WIND.

..JEWELL.. 07/02/2011
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CentralIllinois
post Jul 2 2011, 02:43 PM
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T'storm Watch till 10pm for E MO and C IL


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 02:51 PM
Post #53




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under a watch now

QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 584 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

ILC001-009-013-017-019-021-039-053-057-061-063-075-083-091-105-
107-113-115-117-125-129-137-143-147-149-167-169-171-179-183-197-
203-030300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0584.110702T1945Z-110703T0300Z/

IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS BROWN CALHOUN
CASS CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN
DE WITT FORD FULTON
GREENE GRUNDY IROQUOIS
JERSEY KANKAKEE LIVINGSTON
LOGAN MACON MACOUPIN
MASON MCLEAN MENARD
MORGAN PEORIA PIATT
PIKE SANGAMON SCHUYLER
SCOTT TAZEWELL VERMILION
WILL WOODFORD


INC007-073-089-111-127-030300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0584.110702T1945Z-110703T0300Z/

IN
. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENTON JASPER LAKE
NEWTON PORTER


MOC007-019-027-051-113-127-135-137-139-151-163-173-205-219-
030300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0584.110702T1945Z-110703T0300Z/

MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY
COLE LINCOLN MARION
MONITEAU MONROE MONTGOMERY
OSAGE PIKE RALLS
SHELBY WARREN


LMZ743-744-745-030300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0584.110702T1945Z-110703T0300Z/

CW

. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE

CALUMET HARBOR IL TO GARY IN

GARY TO BURNS HARBOR IN

BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY IN

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LOT...ILX...
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 02:51 PM
Post #54




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QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA
EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO COLUMBIA MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 583...

DISCUSSION...BANDS OF PRIMARILY MULTICELL TSTMS WILL INITIATE ALONG
A SEGMENTED COLD FRONT SITUATED FROM SRN LAKE MI TO ECNTRL MO.
THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ANEMIC...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
FROM SFC TO 500 MB WILL ENCOURAGE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT BRIEF STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MAY YIELD LARGE HAIL AS WELL. STORM MOTION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FAST OWING TO WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
REACH FAR NWRN IND AND CNTRL IL BY THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.


...RACY


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CentralIllinois
post Jul 2 2011, 02:45 PM
Post #55




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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jul 2 2011, 02:51 PM) *
under a watch now

QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL ILLINOIS
EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA
EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI
LAKE MICHIGAN

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OF
VALPARAISO INDIANA TO COLUMBIA MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.


--------------------

Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2017-2018 Snowfall:15.6"
2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


Note to Accuweather.com....Please give us a dedicated video blogger for the Plains/MW/OV/GL area!
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 02:54 PM
Post #56




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Probabilities on the watch not all that stellar, but p[robably a good thing being as its a holiday weekend

QUOTE
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (<5%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (<2%)



Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (30%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)
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HassayWx2306
post Jul 2 2011, 02:57 PM
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Just got to wait for the line to develop and hopeful swing through tonight.
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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 02:58 PM
Post #58




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Large area of 5-6K CAPEand no CIN

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SEMIweather
post Jul 2 2011, 02:59 PM
Post #59




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Initiation in MI all the way down to Lansing attm...


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WeatherMonger
post Jul 2 2011, 03:14 PM
Post #60




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QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

WEAK
COLD FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON AND SPRINGFIELD WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL SLOWLY FILTER IN
LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT AS IS TYPICAL IN JULY...THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH WILL BE MINIMAL WITH AREAS ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPS OR
DEW POINTS FOR A WHILE.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND LOCATION OF BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND
ATTENDANT STORM CHANCES ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY.

COLD FRONT SHOULD EDGE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACRS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ML CAPES
IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG AND WEAK WIND FIELDS ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 03Z WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING
OUT TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
STATIONARY AND BE AFFECTED BY INCREASING 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.
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