December 14-15 MidAtl/NE Miller A Storm, See OBS Topic Options

[Phased Vort]

Hello everyone!


I love Miller A storms.

But before anything, I would like to mention that I know some of you fellow posters will say that this storm is not a legitimate Miller A because some models may be showing it tracking just inland even though it does originate from the GOMEX and tracks towards the east coast, like Miller Aīs do. At any rate, we will eventually find out if the track of the storm is just offshore or just inland. Then, we could possibly discuss wether or not this is a Miller A storm. Given itīs origim, Iīm labeling it a Miller A. I just love Miller Aīs.

For those interested in tracking this and discussing about it, it looks like this one will be affecting us just as we leave the first half of December and head into the second half of the month. The model of choice is what we got better in model guidance out there, the ECMWF; the especific run is the 00Z for 05/12/12. Not bothering with the GFS because it is showing so many storms and energy that itīs even hard to know what could be different events.

It seems it may be dealing with a pretty wet storm over our threadīs coverage area, which is no surprise given its birth place, the GOMEX.

Right now, the storm looks warm and rainy, and this one should be happening during a preiod of possible patern chance for the eastern CONUS, which means telleconnections should be changing as well during the period.






Letīs discuss, analyze and find out what ends up occruing as far as the sensible weather is concerned, about 9 to 10 days from now.


Have fun and letīs us all learn.

[LoveNYCSnow]

I am also hoping something can get itself going during this time period. 12Z GFS looks OTS.

[NorEaster07]

Euro12z 12/5/12

[LoveNYCSnow]

Euro12z 12/5/12

yuck. I know it's still a ways away but even a low offshore is warm, I will believe this grand pattern change I keep hearing about when I see it.

[gulfofslides]

yuck. I know it's still a ways away but even a low offshore is warm, I will believe this grand pattern change I keep hearing about when I see it.

change "grand" to "gradual" and wait till feb to be "grand"

[LoveNYCSnow]

change "grand" to "gradual" and wait till feb to be "grand"

yea I know i'm just frustrated I guess. I haven't seen heavy snow in almost 2 years. I know the pattern should gradually change at least somewhat.

[telejunkie]

NAO values could either be +.75 or -1.75 in this timeframe depending who you listen to atm. Just another day in weather-wheel paradise...please cue up some circus theme music...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Dec 5 2012, 03:45 PM

[telejunkie]

yuck. I know it's still a ways away but even a low offshore is warm, I will believe this grand pattern change I keep hearing about when I see it.

is that extra-tropical in nature??

[Phased Vort]

is that extra-tropical in nature??

It seems the 12Z ECMWF tries to develop a subtropical or a tropical system with the energy that develops in the GOMEX.

So now, we could have a Miller A storm or a tropical or subtropical system.

And what if that energy dropping into the upper Midwest is fast and catches up with the energy that lifts NE'ward out of the GOMEX? Could we yet again have a more potent system affecting the east coast?

Gotta watch those teleconnections, PNA and NAO.

[The Day After To...]

That -----PNA is killing me.

[HV Snowstorm]

yea I know i'm just frustrated I guess. I haven't seen heavy snow in almost 2 years. I know the pattern should gradually change at least somewhat.

Blahhh.... Come on can we please get a cold storm, essentially every thread for the region is warm and majority rain.

[baltimorewisher8...]

Blahhh.... Come on can we please get a cold storm, essentially every thread for the region is warm and majority rain.

looking over the models it looks like that this might be next shot of a widespread event for the Mid/Atl and NE.

That being said, the interesting frames are currently are 288-312 according to the 12Z GFS 12/5:

288: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPp12288.gif
300: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPp12300.gif
312: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPp12312.gif

We'd be fools to think that it will play out this way 13-15 days out but this looks to be the only opportunity in that time frame for an all out snowstorm, so can't blame a guy for looking...

[HV Snowstorm]

looking over the models it looks like that this might be next shot of a widespread event for the Mid/Atl and NE.

That being said, the interesting frames are currently are 288-312 according to the 12Z GFS 12/5:

288: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPp12288.gif
300: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPp12300.gif
312: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPp12312.gif

We'd be fools to think that it will play out this way 13-15 days out but this looks to be the only opportunity in that time frame for an all out snowstorm, so can't blame a guy for looking...

Of course it will change but those GFS images look at least more encouraging.

[baltimorewisher8...]

Of course it will change but those GFS images look at least more encouraging.

yup,, 18Z still has the storm around this time period but its much warmer.. again just important to keep an eye on whether it keeps the storm, not temps at this point but goes to show how many different solutions there will be over the next 60+ GFS runs...

[LoveNYCSnow]

yup,, 18Z still has the storm around this time period but its much warmer.. again just important to keep an eye on whether it keeps the storm, not temps at this point but goes to show how many different solutions there will be over the next 60+ GFS runs...

figures, I know it's 300 hours out so it means nothing, I guess I am just tired of hearing in the long range look at all that cold air coming in and then hearing it gets warmer and warmer closer to the event.

[LoveNYCSnow]

Southern Stream dominanted Monsoon on the 0Z GFS. I would post but trust me it's ugly for us snow lovers. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this point, this is almost as bad as last winter.

[baltimorewisher8...]

Southern Stream dominanted Monsoon on the 0Z GFS. I would post but trust me it's ugly for us snow lovers. I don't know whether to laugh or cry at this point, this is almost as bad as last winter.

I'm not throwing this winter out but almost ready to throw out december... this seems to be many of our next chance at a winter storm and even this one is looking pretty warm over the past 3 runs..

I know its important to just focus on whether there is a storm or not this far out, but would love to have something to track that gives us a decent shot at snow.. really anyone on this thread, it would be great to see a real snowstorm (not bickering over 1 slushy inch opposed 2 inches)...

anyway...

276: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPp12276.gif
288: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...bTSLPp12288.gif

Torch....

[LoveNYCSnow]

6Z GFS had no storm in this timeframe and looking at the setup around this time period thats probably a good thing.

[LoveNYCSnow]

the glc train continues

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

[NYCSuburbs]

No storm on the 13-14th here, stalled front is well to the south with a high pressure over the region.