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> 2017-2018 La Niņa watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 2 2018, 09:50 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 1 2018, 06:57 PM) *
CFS has a spectacular drought developing in the southern Plains, which FWIW, follows what happened in 2010-11.

I still like the 1999-2000 analog better, which implies a locally intense drought this summer across the southeast sort of similar to the CFS. During 2011 the drought was focused farther west across TX/OK/NM.

Additionally, 2019-2023 could be a multi-year drought to remember, particularly across the western US (not necessarily California).

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Jan 2 2018, 09:52 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 4 2018, 10:21 PM
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Latest ONI update

ASO: -0.4
SON: -0.7
OND: -0.9

No denying we're in a high-end weak Nina. Ninas have been shown to typically peak in NDJ, so in 1 more month we'll know if this is a high-end weak Nina or a low-end moderate one.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 5 2018, 01:52 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 5 2018, 12:21 AM) *
Latest ONI update

ASO: -0.4
SON: -0.7
OND: -0.9

No denying we're in a high-end weak Nina. Ninas have been shown to typically peak in NDJ, so in 1 more month we'll know if this is a high-end weak Nina or a low-end moderate one.


Unfotunately prospects are looking bleak. It should wane slowly over the next month or two and spread west but I dont think anoms will catch enough to get much past -.8C for Jan and then even lower for Feb. DJF will unfortunately make or break this one which is always a shame because a lot of these im sure had similar scenarios.

Should make a special category for these as they are quite interesting to the patterns that set up.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 5 2018, 03:13 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 5 2018, 01:52 AM) *
Unfotunately prospects are looking bleak. It should wane slowly over the next month or two and spread west but I dont think anoms will catch enough to get much past -.8C for Jan and then even lower for Feb. DJF will unfortunately make or break this one which is always a shame because a lot of these im sure had similar scenarios.

Should make a special category for these as they are quite interesting to the patterns that set up.


If someone stuck a trend line on this time series, I'm confident it would have a negative slope so NDJ will be lower than OND and it's conceivable that DJF could have the minimum value.

Either way, if OND was -0.9 then there's little doubt in my mind that NDJ will equal or pass the -1C threshold. October had ~two weeks of just barely negative SSTAs in the Nino 3.4 region.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Jan 5 2018, 03:14 PM
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 5 2018, 03:20 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 5 2018, 05:13 PM) *
If someone stuck a trend line on this time series, I'm confident it would have a negative slope so NDJ will be lower than OND and it's conceivable that DJF could have the minimum value.

Either way, if OND was -0.9 then there's little doubt in my mind that NDJ will equal or pass the -1C threshold. October had ~two weeks of just barely negative SSTAs in the Nino 3.4 region.



Should have numbers in later today or tomorrow but well we will see:


Nino 1+2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4
04OCT2017 19.3-1.4 24.7-0.2 26.7 0.0 28.7 0.1
11OCT2017 19.5-1.3 24.4-0.5 26.2-0.5 28.5-0.1
18OCT2017 19.5-1.4 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.8 28.3-0.4
25OCT2017 19.6-1.4 24.2-0.8 26.2-0.5 28.5-0.2
01NOV2017 20.4-0.8 24.4-0.6 26.3-0.4 28.7 0.1
08NOV2017 20.2-1.2 23.8-1.2 25.6-1.1 28.3-0.3
15NOV2017 20.6-1.0 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.1 28.2-0.4
22NOV2017 20.6-1.2 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.8 28.5-0.1
29NOV2017 20.8-1.3 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.7 28.5 0.0
06DEC2017 20.8-1.6 24.1-1.0 25.7-0.8 28.2-0.3
13DEC2017 21.3-1.3 24.0-1.1 25.8-0.8 28.1-0.3
20DEC2017 21.6-1.4 23.8-1.4 25.6-1.0 28.1-0.3
27DEC2017 22.1-1.3 24.4-0.9 26.0-0.6 28.2-0.2


--------------------
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 5 2018, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 5 2018, 03:20 PM) *
Should have numbers in later today or tomorrow but well we will see:
Nino 1+2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4
04OCT2017 19.3-1.4 24.7-0.2 26.7 0.0 28.7 0.1
11OCT2017 19.5-1.3 24.4-0.5 26.2-0.5 28.5-0.1
18OCT2017 19.5-1.4 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.8 28.3-0.4
25OCT2017 19.6-1.4 24.2-0.8 26.2-0.5 28.5-0.2
01NOV2017 20.4-0.8 24.4-0.6 26.3-0.4 28.7 0.1
08NOV2017 20.2-1.2 23.8-1.2 25.6-1.1 28.3-0.3
15NOV2017 20.6-1.0 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.1 28.2-0.4
22NOV2017 20.6-1.2 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.8 28.5-0.1
29NOV2017 20.8-1.3 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.7 28.5 0.0
06DEC2017 20.8-1.6 24.1-1.0 25.7-0.8 28.2-0.3
13DEC2017 21.3-1.3 24.0-1.1 25.8-0.8 28.1-0.3
20DEC2017 21.6-1.4 23.8-1.4 25.6-1.0 28.1-0.3
27DEC2017 22.1-1.3 24.4-0.9 26.0-0.6 28.2-0.2

Nope, it's always Monday


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 5 2018, 04:57 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 5 2018, 05:48 PM) *
Nope, it's always Monday

My bad felt they got it end of the week weird how they get data for wednesday but present it monday.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 5 2018, 06:49 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 5 2018, 04:57 PM) *
My bad felt they got it end of the week weird how they get data for wednesday but present it monday.

Agreed. But it is nice to have something to look forward to when you wake up on Monday.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 6 2018, 01:29 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 5 2018, 03:20 PM) *
Should have numbers in later today or tomorrow but well we will see:
Nino 1+2 Nino 3 Nino 3.4 Nino 4
04OCT2017 19.3-1.4 24.7-0.2 26.7 0.0 28.7 0.1
11OCT2017 19.5-1.3 24.4-0.5 26.2-0.5 28.5-0.1
18OCT2017 19.5-1.4 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.8 28.3-0.4
25OCT2017 19.6-1.4 24.2-0.8 26.2-0.5 28.5-0.2
01NOV2017 20.4-0.8 24.4-0.6 26.3-0.4 28.7 0.1
08NOV2017 20.2-1.2 23.8-1.2 25.6-1.1 28.3-0.3
15NOV2017 20.6-1.0 23.8-1.1 25.6-1.1 28.2-0.4
22NOV2017 20.6-1.2 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.8 28.5-0.1
29NOV2017 20.8-1.3 23.9-1.1 25.9-0.7 28.5 0.0
06DEC2017 20.8-1.6 24.1-1.0 25.7-0.8 28.2-0.3
13DEC2017 21.3-1.3 24.0-1.1 25.8-0.8 28.1-0.3
20DEC2017 21.6-1.4 23.8-1.4 25.6-1.0 28.1-0.3
27DEC2017 22.1-1.3 24.4-0.9 26.0-0.6 28.2-0.2


Based on those numbers, October's approximate anomaly was -0.44. If the OND period was -0.9 then November and December were at least -1.1 and January hasn't been any warmer thus far.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 7 2018, 03:33 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 6 2018, 03:29 PM) *
Based on those numbers, October's approximate anomaly was -0.44. If the OND period was -0.9 then November and December were at least -1.1 and January hasn't been any warmer thus far.


November definitely pushed that -1 to -1.2 region December might not have been that maybe -.9

Should get an idea maybe of how things progress starting with this mondays number. NDJ will probably offer -.7 to -.8 and depending on how January evolves will tell whether we can officially name it a nina.

Why are all these outlets different. CPC, BOM, tidbits data? Do they use different levels and roundings for the numbers? You would think with how we try to unify data and make formulas we all can use the same how do we get different numbers lol They way the interpret anoms is different wind speed strengths. I just dont get it.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jan 7 2018, 03:36 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 8 2018, 01:16 PM
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The Nina became more central-based over the past week

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
06DEC2017     20.8-1.6     24.1-1.0     25.7-0.8     28.2-0.3
13DEC2017     21.3-1.3     24.0-1.1     25.8-0.8     28.1-0.3
20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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idecline
post Jan 8 2018, 08:31 PM
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...idee is no expert...La Nina appears to have peaked and warmer deep water currents are expanding to the east... unsure.gif (yes...some pay attention to "numbers" but most of these "describe the past")
...if 3-D makes any sense to anyone else...idee loves these shots... wink.gif
Attached File  frame048__1_.png ( 34.73K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  frame060__1_.png ( 36.45K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and for good measure...side view...with excellent thermocline, trade winds, temperatures...and trends...
Attached File  frame048.png ( 52.56K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  frame059.png ( 49.91K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  frame060.png ( 49.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


"What goes up, must come down...spinning wheel spinning round..."....Blood, Sweat and Tears
QUOTE
...what does this all mean?...just that La Nina is always an accentuation of 'normal'( laugh.gif ) conditions implicated by the build-up of waters in the equatorial Western Pacific because of the convective persistence near the Indonesian archipelago...the resultant 'slant' of the thermocline results in the ability for winds to scour away surface waters near the American coasts(N+S) to allow 'upwelling' nutrient-rich cooler water to reach the surface...this in turn creates cool waters off the coast(s) and all of the marine life and adjacent marine sanctuaries that are along the Eastern shores of the Pacific Ocean...El Nino is the 'aberrational' pattern that 'demands' complex pattern changes because of it's basin-wide effects...


...above is a classic 'idee rant'... "all things have a beginning, and an end"

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/ani/

This post has been edited by idecline: Jan 8 2018, 08:53 PM


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 9 2018, 12:46 AM
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Godzilla Nino of 2018-19... calling it now laugh.gif tongue.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 9 2018, 01:52 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 9 2018, 12:46 AM) *
Godzilla Nino of 2018-19... calling it now laugh.gif tongue.gif

A strong ENSO event next winter of either phase appears quite unlikely and I tend to favor cool neutral conditions.

However, if deep warm anomalies continue to build then the evolution of the 14-15 and 15-16 El Nino is what I would expect. Thus, strong Nino the following winter in 19-20.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 16 2018, 12:01 AM
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Half way through January now... overall, the Nina hasn't really become less anomalous since the very end of December. That kinda surprises me. The biggest development is the warming in Nino 1+2, which has been the most anomalously cool region through nearly this entire event... now it's not. How this Nina dies is important for the pattern a few months down the road

CODE
                 Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
20DEC2017     21.6-1.4     23.8-1.4     25.6-1.0     28.1-0.3
27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 16 2018, 12:27 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 22 2018, 10:41 PM
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Nina is definitely (slowly) dying. 3 of the 4 regions warmed in the past week.

CODE
                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
27DEC2017     22.1-1.3     24.4-0.9     26.0-0.6     28.2-0.2
03JAN2018     22.9-0.8     24.0-1.4     25.8-0.8     28.3-0.1
10JAN2018     23.3-0.9     24.3-1.3     25.6-0.9     28.2-0.1
17JAN2018     23.9-0.6     24.7-0.9     26.0-0.6     27.9-0.3


What happens in the coming months will be very important for the spring and summer. The further away the Nina is from being east-based, the greater the potential for an active tornado season which typically corresponds with warmth. The trend over the past month has been a quicker collapse in the east vs. the west. We'll have to wait and see if this continues to be the trend.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 0 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 07:05 AM
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You guys thinking Weak La Nina for Spring?

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/955381942991568903

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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 23 2018, 07:05 AM) *
You guys thinking Weak La Nina for Spring?

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/955381942991568903

Attached File  Tweet13.jpg ( 115.35K ) Number of downloads: 0

It's possible. Looks like Japan's Meteorological Agency is expecting it, but their model isn't. However, JAMSTEC hasn't handled this event well.

Time will tell, but we'll definitely feel the impacts of the Nina through the spring via forcing.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Yesterday, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 23 2018, 07:05 AM) *
You guys thinking Weak La Nina for Spring?

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/955381942991568903

I wouldn't be surprised if this event takes a while to die off, but I don't buy conditions staying that steady through spring/summer. I wouldn't be surprised to see a Nina next winter, but will need to watch how the warm anomalies at depth evolve over time.


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MaineJay
post Today, 02:59 AM
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If, the MJO makes it to the dateline, it's likely to initiate a fairly strong oceanic Kelvin wave.

Attached File  wksl_anm.gif ( 32.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  heat_last_year.gif ( 6.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec.../MJO/enso.shtml

Attached File  uwnd850.cfs.eqtr__4_.png ( 149.38K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by MaineJay: Today, 03:04 AM


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