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> December 19-20 MidAtlantic/NE Winter Storm, Forecast Thread Closed; Please See "OBS"
Removed_Member_Nyc Brooklyn_*
post Dec 17 2009, 08:26 PM
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With the nam at 8:30 how much importance is riding on this run??
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Noreaster0809
post Dec 17 2009, 08:26 PM
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I think Nam comes out 9.15-9.30
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firefighter12000
post Dec 17 2009, 08:27 PM
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will that seconday low that's in ohio have any effect of the track of the storm?
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Alexw
post Dec 17 2009, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 17 2009, 08:25 PM) *
Well I can not say that I am surprised at the NAM and what it did on the 18 Z run. The NAM has basically aligned itself now with the 12 Z ECM model.

I continue to say the same thing that I have been saying from the start of tracking this event and that someone is going to end up having a memorable event.
Once the forum slows down tonight I will be issuing a preliminary call and I will say this much..It will look nothing like what DT has issued..Completely disregards what the ECM showed..and is completely underestimating the storm at this point and time.



ill look forward to that matt and welcome back!
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GiAnTsBaBySuPeRb...
post Dec 17 2009, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(TheMDMan @ Dec 17 2009, 08:22 PM) *
yeah if that were to play out, it would be a tremendous snow storm

by the looks of that loop if the 2 storm join the storm from the Ohio valley might give us some nice empd up moisture and maybe a pro longed storm rolleyes.gif
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DomNH
post Dec 17 2009, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(Noreaster0809 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:26 PM) *
I think Nam comes out 9.15-9.30

EDIT: This is for NYC Brooklyn about the importance, sorry.

A bit...we want to make sure it has a good track.

It's not important enough for specifics (temps/QPF) yet.


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Weatherjunkie
post Dec 17 2009, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:20 PM) *
Tis ok. Seems like you refresh the page and 2 more pages on the message board pop up. laugh.gif

I think both models are a little to robust on the ENE movement after hr66.

Also both models indicate crashing temps with NAM advection profiles peaking the chart into SE PA causing a dramatic increase in snow ratios.

I think probabilities of 16 inch plus snow run in this higher advection range from York up to Lebanon over to Reading over to say the Valley Forge area and South.

Your thoughts of mesobanding leading to increased snow totals just NW of Philly are?


Yeah I saw that mesobanding on the NAM, but it's hard to gauge where that will set-up. I would like to see a few more runs indicating that same thing. That's one of those nowcast situations where someone is going to end up with 6" more than a person 50 miles to the west (or east). Hopefully the NAM will fill in that hole over PHL and Bucks/Montgomery counties. That strip of 16" you are indicating seems pretty good to me at the moment.

This post has been edited by Weatherjunkie: Dec 17 2009, 08:29 PM


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jhox26x
post Dec 17 2009, 08:28 PM
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QUOTE(Superstorm93 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:15 PM) *

Ohh my lordd
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nuttyrich
post Dec 17 2009, 08:28 PM
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QUOTE(OHweather2 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:24 PM) *
It's not really something to watch, there will be another S/W diving into the OV that could cause a weak surface reflection and will cause an outbreak of light snow back over OH/KY/IN/IL/MI. This is the piece of energy that will phase with the STJ to cause a bigger storm.



Thanks for explaining that, I was trying to put it into the right words or find a mao that will depict what I wanted to say.. so thanks for saving me time.


If you can EDIT it and make it BOLD so people can see it.. that would be good.. people will start freaking out seeing that loop! smile.gif

-Rich
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GiAnTsBaBySuPeRb...
post Dec 17 2009, 08:28 PM
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The NAM comes out at 9:30 and the GFS at 10:30
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Weatherjunkie
post Dec 17 2009, 08:28 PM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Dec 17 2009, 08:26 PM) *
so if i take your math verbatim, 9-18 inches for philly and nyc?


Yup, looks good to me.


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missmarisa
post Dec 17 2009, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(Nyc Brooklyn @ Dec 17 2009, 08:26 PM) *
With the nam at 8:30 how much importance is riding on this run??


there is a lot of importance on the entire 0z suite....but IMO especially the NAM and ECM


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ScrantonSnowman
post Dec 17 2009, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(yankees @ Dec 17 2009, 08:21 PM) *
Hey Tyler do you mind telling us or posting what futurcast shows for my area or the tri state


If you bookmark this site, you can have your own controllable futurecast.
FutureCast

**You must select the Futurecast tab below the radar image.
**Does not work properly in Google Chrome. I've tested it with success in Firefox.
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WxWiNi
post Dec 17 2009, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(OHweather2 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:20 PM) *
Thanks...this is one time I'm not going conservative. Epic blocking is in place and the majority of models are breaking down the PV or splitting it soon enough. Time to go all out IMO...


Your analysis sold me Jim. I'm all in cause you're right, time to take sides.

I've long thought of this as a Miller B although many others were looking at it entirely as an A. Rex blocking is impressive and there are no dogs in the PV split scenarios you've put forth. If verified it will be almost nostalgic to a guy like me who grew up in an era where this happened a lot more. \ Nice work
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post Dec 17 2009, 08:29 PM
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If the storm has a good track at the next run then at Albany's Next update,
there will probably talk of the issuance of WSW's no doubt.
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Weatherman Tyler
post Dec 17 2009, 08:30 PM
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QUOTE(Nyc Brooklyn @ Dec 17 2009, 08:26 PM) *
With the nam at 8:30 how much importance is riding on this run??



QUOTE(Noreaster0809 @ Dec 17 2009, 08:26 PM) *
I think Nam comes out 9.15-9.30


The 00z NAM is very important. We are 24-48 hours from the start of the event, and the NAM is the model that has been leading the way this season. The ECMWF is also a model to closely monitor.


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Removed_Member_CTWeatherStorm_*
post Dec 17 2009, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherman Tyler @ Dec 17 2009, 09:30 PM) *
The 00z NAM is very important. We are 24-48 hours from the start of the event, and the NAM is the model that has been leading the way this season. The ECMWF is also a model to closely monitor.



Do you think 00z NAM will be a good run?
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hckyplayer8
post Dec 17 2009, 08:31 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Dec 17 2009, 08:27 PM) *
Yeah I saw that mesobanding on the NAM, but it's hard to gauge where that will set-up. I would like to see a few more runs indicating that same thing. That's one of those nowcast situations where someone is going to end up with 6" more than a person 50 miles to the west (or east). Hopefully the NAM will fill in that hole over PHL and Bucks/Montgomery counties. That strip of 16" you are indicating seems pretty good to me at the moment.


Naturally. Just making sure somebody else saw the same thing. Thanks.


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tick629
post Dec 17 2009, 08:32 PM
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

The above is a great site to see what the status of the current models are. The times are in utc/gmt, and the current time is given at the top


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Removed_Member_OHweather2_*
post Dec 17 2009, 08:32 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Dec 17 2009, 08:25 PM) *
Well I can not say that I am surprised at the NAM and what it did on the 18 Z run. The NAM has basically aligned itself now with the 12 Z ECM model.

I continue to say the same thing that I have been saying from the start of tracking this event and that someone is going to end up having a memorable event.
Once the forum slows down tonight I will be issuing a preliminary call and I will say this much..It will look nothing like what DT has issued..Completely disregards what the ECM showed..and is completely underestimating the storm at this point and time.

I'm not saying you're wrong here but I'm just asking for some information behind your thinking. Mind you I issued a snow map that shows 12-18" for Philly, 8-12" for NYC and 6-10" for Boston so I'm not arguing against snow here.
Question: What are your thoughts on models that are east of the ECM/NAM (the 18z NAM was west of the Euro track)? I'm not talking about the GFS but about the middle ground solutions like the GGEM/UKMET. They split the PV, but they don't freakishly phase the storm. Do you think it's possible that a partial phase solution verifies (which would make somewhat more sense since the OV S/W is so far behind the STJ one) and models like the UKMET/GGEM verify, that are closer to DT's map and different than the ECM/NAM?
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