Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

322 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2015-2016 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
VASnowstormHunte...
post Mar 2 2015, 04:22 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 553
Joined: 4-March 09
From: Florence, KY
Member No.: 17,848





Actually a day late on this one, as with previous years, I always find it nice to end the past winter (meteorological speaking) with the opening of a new thread for the next one.

Here's to hopefully a good 2015-2016 season in your backyard! smile.gif

As always, we can use this thread to discuss our thoughts, the trends and any outlooks/forecasts... both professional and amateur.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JoeyD
post Mar 2 2015, 08:05 PM
Post #2




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 205
Joined: 15-December 12
From: Hiram, OH
Member No.: 27,336





Never too soon to talk about the next storm/winter.

Early in the 2014-2015 thread, someone said how rare it is to have back-to-back cold/severe winters. Well, I wonder how rare it will be to have 3 in a row?



--------------------
It's all relative...especially the weather.
Residing 1235' up a north facing slope, where the highs are low and the lows are high.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowsux
post Mar 2 2015, 08:11 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,954
Joined: 19-February 08
Member No.: 13,803





QUOTE(JoeyD @ Mar 2 2015, 08:05 PM) *
Never too soon to talk about the next storm/winter.

Early in the 2014-2015 thread, someone said how rare it is to have back-to-back cold/severe winters. Well, I wonder how rare it will be to have 3 in a row?


It's the new normal. It will happen again next year.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowsux
post Mar 2 2015, 11:54 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,954
Joined: 19-February 08
Member No.: 13,803





JB has declared blocking will occur around the 20th, locking in cold in the east until the middle of April. His crystal ball has been right all winter long, so I'll take that as gospel at this point. On the bright side, this upcoming growing season should be stellar for Monsanto!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
andyhb
post Mar 3 2015, 12:01 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,060
Joined: 22-October 11
Member No.: 26,121





QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 2 2015, 08:54 PM) *
JB has declared blocking will occur around the 20th, locking in cold in the east until the middle of April. His crystal ball has been right all winter long, so I'll take that as gospel at this point. On the bright side, this upcoming growing season should be stellar for Monsanto!

Except that part where he was completely wrong about December and a decent chunk of January.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowsux
post Mar 3 2015, 12:43 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,954
Joined: 19-February 08
Member No.: 13,803





QUOTE(andyhb @ Mar 3 2015, 12:01 AM) *
Except that part where he was completely wrong about December and a decent chunk of January.


You've got a point. That said, he was amazingly spot-on about February when just about everyone else wasn't on board with the types of extremes he was predicting. By the way, you little weather station icon where it says it's 40 degrees in Tacoma, which I'm assuming is your hometown.....Man, what I wouldn't do for a temperature reading like that.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
andyhb
post Mar 3 2015, 12:50 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,060
Joined: 22-October 11
Member No.: 26,121





Calling for one thing all of the time (cold), you're eventually going to get it right, and more often than not over the last three winters.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowsux
post Mar 3 2015, 11:53 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,954
Joined: 19-February 08
Member No.: 13,803





Winter of 2015-2016 will feature a western ridge / eastern trough just like the previous two winters.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PGM
post Mar 3 2015, 04:53 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 862
Joined: 9-February 14
From: Detroit, MI
Member No.: 29,229





QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 3 2015, 11:53 AM) *
Winter of 2015-2016 will feature a western ridge / eastern trough just like the previous two winters.

I wouldn't say that yet.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Mar 3 2015, 06:37 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,833
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(andyhb @ Mar 3 2015, 12:01 AM) *
Except that part where he was completely wrong about December and a decent chunk of January.

Not so fast....he's openly spoken of this mis hap on numerous occasions and explained the reasons as to WHY he busted on that, however for the record it was NOT for all regions what so ever so your blanket statement is not valid

Just my opinion
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Mar 3 2015, 06:39 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,833
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(andyhb @ Mar 3 2015, 12:50 AM) *
Calling for one thing all of the time (cold), you're eventually going to get it right, and more often than not over the last three winters.

Really......wow huh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
andyhb
post Mar 3 2015, 08:02 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,060
Joined: 22-October 11
Member No.: 26,121





QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Mar 3 2015, 03:39 PM) *
Really......wow huh.gif

Yes really. He is cold biased in the east and always has been, plus he flat out rips on anyone who disagrees with him more than seems appropriate.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
cary67
post Mar 5 2015, 09:01 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,033
Joined: 18-January 08
Member No.: 12,660





QUOTE(andyhb @ Mar 3 2015, 07:02 PM) *
Yes really. He is cold biased in the east and always has been, plus he flat out rips on anyone who disagrees with him more than seems appropriate.

He's diplomatic in comparison to DT if anyone debates his weather thoughts. How about a La Nina for next winter. Could order up a 2007-08 winter please.

This post has been edited by cary67: Mar 5 2015, 09:02 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
alczervik
post Mar 5 2015, 09:50 AM
Post #14




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 308
Joined: 11-July 10
Member No.: 23,135





QUOTE(andyhb @ Mar 3 2015, 08:02 PM) *
Yes really. He is cold biased in the east and always has been, plus he flat out rips on anyone who disagrees with him more than seems appropriate.


He should be cold biased in the east. There are parameters in play that make it much more rare for severe cold to strike the west.

1. Wide scale arctic invasions are semi blocked by mountains.
2. Pacific is huge moderator for temps.

I bet if we looked at the number of times the west has had a arctic outbreak of whatever you want to call it, the east would outnumber the west 4-1 if not higher.

Also, you do not feel the effects of a Greenland block or any of the other blocking patterns. so yes JB can be cold biased because it naturally effects the east more based on above.

This post has been edited by alczervik: Mar 5 2015, 09:51 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MotownWX
post Mar 5 2015, 11:36 AM
Post #15




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 418
Joined: 26-February 13
From: Rochester Hills, MI
Member No.: 28,320





As long as the North Pacific feels like baby bathwater, my bets are on Western Ridge/Eastern Trough until proven otherwise.

At this point, it isn't about individuals wishing for such-and-such pattern to suit what they like. The West Coast needs troughiness and Pacific energy. Soon. Those few weeks in December barely put a dent in that drought. They might be enjoying waking up to gorgeous sunny days, every single day, but at some point you need a higher elevation snowpack.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
goblue96
post Mar 5 2015, 12:07 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,722
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Selkirk, NY
Member No.: 20,500





QUOTE(MotownWX @ Mar 5 2015, 12:36 PM) *
As long as the North Pacific feels like baby bathwater, my bets are on Western Ridge/Eastern Trough until proven otherwise.

At this point, it isn't about individuals wishing for such-and-such pattern to suit what they like. The West Coast needs troughiness and Pacific energy. Soon. Those few weeks in December barely put a dent in that drought. They might be enjoying waking up to gorgeous sunny days, every single day, but at some point you need a higher elevation snowpack.


My friends in California are enjoying the weather but I keep reminding them about the possible widespread drought. I keep telling them, "Let me know when I need to ship you water!"


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowsux
post Mar 5 2015, 12:41 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,954
Joined: 19-February 08
Member No.: 13,803





QUOTE(MotownWX @ Mar 5 2015, 11:36 AM) *
As long as the North Pacific feels like baby bathwater, my bets are on Western Ridge/Eastern Trough until proven otherwise.

At this point, it isn't about individuals wishing for such-and-such pattern to suit what they like. The West Coast needs troughiness and Pacific energy. Soon. Those few weeks in December barely put a dent in that drought. They might be enjoying waking up to gorgeous sunny days, every single day, but at some point you need a higher elevation snowpack.


The skies above the southwestern US have been anything but gorgeous for the past two winters. They're essentially a chemical stew by noon almost everyday.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 7 2015, 01:04 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,172
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Norman, OK
Member No.: 24,567





QUOTE(MotownWX @ Mar 5 2015, 12:36 PM) *
As long as the North Pacific feels like baby bathwater, my bets are on Western Ridge/Eastern Trough until proven otherwise.

I second this.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 7 2015, 09:53 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 3 2015, 10:53 AM) *
Winter of 2015-2016 will feature a western ridge / eastern trough just like the previous two winters.


For being a JB follower, he's saying it will be warm in the East next winter.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 7 2015, 09:57 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Mar 3 2015, 05:37 PM) *
Not so fast....he's openly spoken of this mis hap on numerous occasions and explained the reasons as to WHY he busted on that, however for the record it was NOT for all regions what so ever so your blanket statement is not valid

Just my opinion


Picking and choosing which region he was correct/incorrect is just as bad as claiming someone has a blanket statement.

How can you be correct with one region and not others when the parameters for said forecast is the same? Hence...the forecast was wrong...period.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

322 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd September 2017 - 09:14 PM