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> Long Range Winter 2016-2017 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
grace
post Mar 4 2016, 01:17 AM
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OUT OF THOSE WINTERS....HERE'S THE WINTERS THAT HAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EAST

1878-79 (BRUTAL)
1903-04
1966-67
1983-84



ABOVE NORMAL
1889-90
1897-98
1906-07
1973-74
1998-99
(TORCH...by far the warmest of them all)


THE TOP 3 STRONGEST EL NINO'S & the following winters:
1877-78....brutally cold following winter

1982-83...very cold following winter

1998-99....blowtorch following winter


All of this is very interesting. Hopefully it can be of use to someone. smile.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Mar 4 2016, 01:19 AM
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OSNW3
post Mar 4 2016, 09:27 AM
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Nice work, grace. Thanks for posting these. Help remind me to revisit these analogs after the ISM this summer. Sometime around July/August. smile.gif


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grace
post Mar 4 2016, 10:54 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 4 2016, 08:27 AM) *
Nice work, grace. Thanks for posting these. Help remind me to revisit these analogs after the ISM this summer. Sometime around July/August. smile.gif

.
Thanks...fun stuff to look at.
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 4 2016, 02:50 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Mar 4 2016, 10:54 AM) *
.
Thanks...fun stuff to look at.

Absolutely....thanks man.
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Gnutella
post Mar 11 2016, 12:36 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 24 2016, 01:33 PM) *
Typically front-loaded winter. Typically evolves into a strong SE ridge, favoring the storm track west of the OV.



That's fine with me; I'd love a cold December for a change. The last one was 2010. Every December since has been mild to warm. Even 2014-2015, with its cold November, January and February, had a mild December. The weather this past Christmas was absolutely hideous, and I hope it never does that again in my life. Nobody was in any Christmas spirit, and even the warm-weather people I know were complaining. Only a deep freeze can compensate for how *bleep*y this past December was. Oh yeah, and no more *bleep*ing tornado outbreaks at Christmastime while we're at it!
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adurb44
post Mar 11 2016, 08:23 AM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Mar 11 2016, 12:36 AM) *
That's fine with me; I'd love a cold December for a change. The last one was 2010. Every December since has been mild to warm. Even 2014-2015, with its cold November, January and February, had a mild December. The weather this past Christmas was absolutely hideous, and I hope it never does that again in my life. Nobody was in any Christmas spirit, and even the warm-weather people I know were complaining. Only a deep freeze can compensate for how *bleep*y this past December was. Oh yeah, and no more *bleep*ing tornado outbreaks at Christmastime while we're at it!


Hear, hear!

I wouldn't mind a cold December either. I recall Christmas day in 2010 being able to walk on frozen ponds in my backyard. If I had my druthers, December and January would be the best months for snow and cold. These back-loaded winters kind of suck.
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telejunkie
post Mar 11 2016, 11:45 AM
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Record low arctic sea ice for February…and what could possibly be record low summer arctic sea ice…my 2cents at the moment is very blowtorchey winter 16-17 for the CONUS (warmer than this winter) with the mean jet stream well north in Canada. Early prediction for sure, but that's what I'm thinking…

"During the second half of January, an anti-cyclonic, or clockwise, circulation pattern developed in the Beaufort Sea, which subsequently strengthened and expanded to include most of the Arctic Ocean. This, combined with high pressure over Greenland and low pressure over Spitsbergen, has favored enhanced ice export out of Fram Strait, helping to flush old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean, leaving behind thinner ice that is more apt to melt away in summer. Whether this circulation pattern will continue and set the stage for very low September sea ice extent remains to be seen."
Source


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Gnutella
post Mar 13 2016, 10:55 AM
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QUOTE(adurb44 @ Mar 11 2016, 09:23 AM) *
Hear, hear!

I wouldn't mind a cold December either. I recall Christmas day in 2010 being able to walk on frozen ponds in my backyard. If I had my druthers, December and January would be the best months for snow and cold. These back-loaded winters kind of suck.


We actually had a white Christmas here in Georgia that year. It started snowing around sunset, and we got a little over 1" officially on December 25. It kept snowing into the early afternoon of December 26 as well, and we ended up with about 3" of snow in total. I never thought I'd get to enjoy a white Christmas in Georgia, but I did. I don't expect another white Christmas, but a cold December is the next-best thing.
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grace
post Mar 13 2016, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 11 2016, 10:45 AM) *
Record low arctic sea ice for February…and what could possibly be record low summer arctic sea ice…my 2cents at the moment is very blowtorchey winter 16-17 for the CONUS (warmer than this winter) with the mean jet stream well north in Canada. Early prediction for sure, but that's what I'm thinking…

"During the second half of January, an anti-cyclonic, or clockwise, circulation pattern developed in the Beaufort Sea, which subsequently strengthened and expanded to include most of the Arctic Ocean. This, combined with high pressure over Greenland and low pressure over Spitsbergen, has favored enhanced ice export out of Fram Strait, helping to flush old, thick ice out of the Arctic Ocean, leaving behind thinner ice that is more apt to melt away in summer. Whether this circulation pattern will continue and set the stage for very low September sea ice extent remains to be seen."
Source



Record low sea ice could lead to a cold blocky winter...at least....that's the leaning of the science at this point

This post has been edited by grace: Mar 13 2016, 09:20 PM
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NorEaster07
post Mar 15 2016, 10:51 AM
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Paulie P's video today mentions they think it will be a weak La Nina Winter 2016-17 but this far out you're better off seeing trends rather then intensities.

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DanaJames
post Mar 16 2016, 06:16 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 15 2016, 11:51 AM) *
Paulie P's video today mentions they think it will be a weak La Nina Winter 2016-17 but this far out you're better off seeing trends rather then intensities.


If that does verify, that would be a good omen for your area and probably mine too. Do you have a link to his video. I'd be interested in seeing it.
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 19 2016, 08:37 AM
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QUOTE(DanaJames @ Mar 16 2016, 07:16 AM) *
If that does verify, that would be a good omen for your area and probably mine too. Do you have a link to his video. I'd be interested in seeing it.

Hey neighbor....much agreed wink.gif

Now I'm not at all familiar with the scientific stuff relating to Nina's and Nino's and how/why then influence particular weather patterns and such, but can recall not very nice winters (relating to SNOW) here in the Mid-Atl during weak Nina's
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DanaJames
post Mar 20 2016, 09:25 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Mar 19 2016, 09:37 AM) *
Hey neighbor....much agreed wink.gif

Now I'm not at all familiar with the scientific stuff relating to Nina's and Nino's and how/why then influence particular weather patterns and such, but can recall not very nice winters (relating to SNOW) here in the Mid-Atl during weak Nina's


I could be wrong but I do recall the winter of 1995-96 being a weak La Nina and that was an epic one for the Mid-Atlantic. If it comes in strong, then we've got problems, as we did this past winter. I just hope we don't have a repeat of December again...for a long, long time. For people who hate winter, it was pure paradise but for me(and I know YOU!) it was very disappointing. Pretty much ruined my Christmas.
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 20 2016, 06:06 PM
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QUOTE(DanaJames @ Mar 20 2016, 10:25 AM) *
I could be wrong but I do recall the winter of 1995-96 being a weak La Nina and that was an epic one for the Mid-Atlantic. If it comes in strong, then we've got problems, as we did this past winter. I just hope we don't have a repeat of December again...for a long, long time. For people who hate winter, it was pure paradise but for me(and I know YOU!) it was very disappointing. Pretty much ruined my Christmas.

I feel ya pal....

A WARM December (even more so CHRISTMAS) was just awful dry.gif
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 2 2016, 12:18 PM
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CFS is finally showing a Nina-like pattern for December, coincident with actually showing a La Nina now (welcome to the party)

Good ol' -------EPO and hint of a -PNA. Good to see hints of a cold December. It's about time our run of warm Decembers ends.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 2 2016, 12:20 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2016, 08:41 AM
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First JAMSTEC DJF 2016-17 winter forecast





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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SnowMan11
post Apr 14 2016, 08:50 AM
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I will take a 2010-2011 redux please =)


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Gnutella
post Apr 14 2016, 06:54 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Apr 14 2016, 09:50 AM) *
I will take a 2010-2011 redux please =)

So will I, just as long as I don't have to deal with a spring 2011 redux afterward. sad.gif
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bretmw1019
post May 15 2016, 03:18 PM
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May JAMSTEC SST Anomaly Forecast for DJF:

Attached File  JAMSTEC_DJF_Forecast.gif ( 79.89K ) Number of downloads: 7


+PDO to continue to persist...

La Nina/PDO combined influences on past US precip, from Gershunov, Barnett, and Cayan 1999 (EOS)


Attached File  La_Nina_and_PDO.gif ( 33.23K ) Number of downloads: 2


Also interesting to note. since 1940, there has never been a moderate or strong La Nina with +PDO conditions.

There have been four Weak La Nina/+PDO years:

- 1983/84 (A post Strong-El Nino year)
- 1984/85
- 1995/96
- 2000/01

Here's how SST's looked those years...
Attached File  SST_Weak_EL_Nino__PDO.png ( 23.12K ) Number of downloads: 3


Note the North Atlantic cold pool in these years and models show that continuing into this winter.
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jdrenken
post May 16 2016, 07:23 AM
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QUOTE(bretmw1019 @ May 15 2016, 03:18 PM) *
May JAMSTEC SST Anomaly Forecast for DJF:

Attached File  JAMSTEC_DJF_Forecast.gif ( 79.89K ) Number of downloads: 7


+PDO to continue to persist...

La Nina/PDO combined influences on past US precip, from Gershunov, Barnett, and Cayan 1999 (EOS)


Attached File  La_Nina_and_PDO.gif ( 33.23K ) Number of downloads: 2


Also interesting to note. since 1940, there has never been a moderate or strong La Nina with +PDO conditions.

There have been four Weak La Nina/+PDO years:

- 1983/84 (A post Strong-El Nino year)
- 1984/85
- 1995/96
- 2000/01

Here's how SST's looked those years...
Attached File  SST_Weak_EL_Nino__PDO.png ( 23.12K ) Number of downloads: 3


Note the North Atlantic cold pool in these years and models show that continuing into this winter.


Good stuff!


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