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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
grace
post Aug 31 2017, 10:54 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 31 2017, 10:46 AM) *
IMO... once this Nina gets going... we're gonna see the ridge break down. Can't imagine we'll have a persistent western ridge during a Nina with a weak or neutral PDO.

Regarding the western drought... hope not. Thankfully we'll be nearing the end of the +PDO regime, so hopefully it wouldn't last long anyway.




I dunno...it has the feel like it's going to hang around. However, one of the leading analogs right now seems to be 2012-13. ENSO, QBO,..all very similar. August was very similar & if CFS monthly & RRWT are correct September looks eerily similar. That winter has non-existent winter weather in DEC & JAN but FEB & MAR were cold & wintry.

This post has been edited by grace: Aug 31 2017, 11:02 PM
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StL weatherjunki...
post Sep 6 2017, 10:41 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 31 2017, 11:33 AM) *
I'd say it's already "begun" with the persistent ridging already beginning in the west & looking to continue per RRWT.

August/September is typically a bit early to be feeling the current ENSO conditions, especially given fairly weak ssta forcing at the moment.

The atmosphere lags the tropical sstas by at least a month. Thus, the current pattern is likely a delayed weak warm Enso pattern that should break down this month. We'll see what's going on come October.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Sep 6 2017, 10:48 AM


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grace
post Sep 6 2017, 01:26 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Sep 6 2017, 10:41 AM) *
August/September is typically a bit early to be feeling the current ENSO conditions, especially given fairly weak ssta forcing at the moment.

The atmosphere lags the tropical sstas by at least a month. Thus, the current pattern is likely a delayed weak warm Enso pattern that should break down this month. We'll see what's going on come October.



RRWT has it persisting through at least the end of December. Not saying it will but I have to wonder since the ridging, heat, & dryness seems to be setting in. Usually thats a stubborn pattern to break. Like you guys were pointing out this time last year in the east.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 6 2017, 02:13 PM
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CFS has only 1 ensemble member in borderline weak Nina territory (nearly exact on -0.5C line). The rest are definitely at least in the weak Nina territory. Mean of all ensembles peaks in a nearly high-end moderate Nina.



(fun fact... today, 3 hours after my Dynamic Meteorology class (perhaps the most infamous undergrad Meteorology class) where we were doing such things as deriving equations for inertial velocity for a fixed point on the rotating Earth, I had my Intro to Statistics class where we were learning about mean/median/mode rolleyes.gif )

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 6 2017, 02:17 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 6 2017, 03:21 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 6 2017, 03:13 PM) *
CFS has only 1 ensemble member in borderline weak Nina territory (nearly exact on -0.5C line). The rest are definitely at least in the weak Nina territory. Mean of all ensembles peaks in a nearly high-end moderate Nina.



(fun fact... today, 3 hours after my Dynamic Meteorology class (perhaps the most infamous undergrad Meteorology class) where we were doing such things as deriving equations for inertial velocity for a fixed point on the rotating Earth, I had my Intro to Statistics class where we were learning about mean/median/mode rolleyes.gif )


Oh sounds fun is that equivalent of synoptic or is that from the dynamics where you learn about PGF, coriolis forces, and other forces apart of the momentum equations?


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 6 2017, 08:05 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 6 2017, 04:21 PM) *
Oh sounds fun is that equivalent of synoptic or is that from the dynamics where you learn about PGF, coriolis forces, and other forces apart of the momentum equations?

It's the latter. We have a separate class for Synoptic.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 7 2017, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 6 2017, 09:05 PM) *
It's the latter. We have a separate class for Synoptic.


Oh dynamics was fun really tied things together then meso and synoptic were like the icing on the cake that really brought it all together. Have fun and having a good/fun teacher makes it more exciting.


--------------------
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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 7 2017, 10:38 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 7 2017, 10:08 PM) *
Oh dynamics was fun really tied things together then meso and synoptic were like the icing on the cake that really brought it all together. Have fun and having a good/fun teacher makes it more exciting.

We only have 2 Meteorology professors at OU, so they know us well and we know them well. The guy that's teaching the class is my adviser, too. Just hating all the Math and Physics right now though.

850mb forecasts have enhanced trades persisting along the IDL. Should help push the Nina further west.






--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 11 2017, 06:38 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 7 2017, 11:38 PM) *
We only have 2 Meteorology professors at OU, so they know us well and we know them well. The guy that's teaching the class is my adviser, too. Just hating all the Math and Physics right now though.

850mb forecasts have enhanced trades persisting along the IDL. Should help push the Nina further west.






Yea thats how it was my advisor was our dynamics and synoptic teacher and another was for thermo and everything else. I liked the small about it. Oh its great just wait once you get into waves which was dynamics 2 for us. Synoptic and meso arent too bad but you will have quite a bit of derivations and equations you will have to know. Gotta love meteorology! Have not had to really use much of these equations after school but still know them and kept all my books and notes as reference.

Subsurface looks to be reloading with another cold punch to the surface down the road. With the looks i dont wanna call it a modoki but the cooler waters seem to want to focus around eastern 3.4 and 3 right now which is what counts for detecting la nina status and 4 and 1+2 have been virtually neutral. Would not be surprised to see it start to reach into 4 soon.

One thing I have noticed is that with the forecasted Hovmollers the actual versus forecasted seems to be lower in reality which makes me think it may not really take off rather just again maintain itself.

Attached File  wkxzteq_anm.gif ( 116.97K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  wkxzteq_all.gif ( 113.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 12 2017, 09:12 AM
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Back to Nina territory in Nino 3 and 3.4. Last year, Nino 4 was only in or around Nina threshold for 4 weeks beginning in late September. Other than that, it was in cool-neutral territory.

CODE

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
16AUG2017     19.9-0.7     24.5-0.5     26.4-0.5     28.8 0.1
23AUG2017     19.6-1.0     24.6-0.4     26.7-0.1     28.9 0.2
30AUG2017     20.3-0.2     24.5-0.4     26.5-0.2     28.8 0.2
06SEP2017     20.4-0.1     24.3-0.6     26.2-0.6     28.7 0.1


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 13 2017, 10:23 PM
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SSTA progressions with links to last month's run to see the difference

Sep 2017 for Meteorological Fall


(August 2017 for Meteorological Fall)
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...17.1aug2017.gif

September 2017 for Meteorological Winter


(August 2017 for Meteorological Winter)
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...18.1aug2017.gif

September 2017 2-year Nino 3.4 forecast


(August 2017 2-year Nino 3.4 forecast)
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...yr.1aug2017.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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stuffradio
post Sep 14 2017, 01:27 PM
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The thread should be changed to La Nina watch now. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/*bleep*...ry/ensodisc.pdf
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NorEaster07
post Sep 14 2017, 02:03 PM
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Couple of tweet's from Ben Noll. Always worth the read..

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather

Attached File  tweet4.jpg ( 374.5K ) Number of downloads: 10



One more

Attached File  tweet5.jpg ( 111.7K ) Number of downloads: 10






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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 14 2017, 11:49 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 28 2017, 12:13 AM) *

My, how things have progressed. Nina is certainly looking imminent.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Sep 16 2017, 09:35 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Sep 14 2017, 02:27 PM) *
The thread should be changed to La Nina watch now.



Yup.. Someone send the original poster a PM.

I didn't even know there were watches and warnings for an ENSO Phase. lol


Click on Monthly El Niņo/La Niņa Diagnostics Discussion


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 17 2017, 02:58 PM
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Eastern Pacific really cooling off now




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 20 2017, 12:09 AM
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SST anomalies of up to -4C (-7.2F) are showing up in the eastern tropical Pacific. That means there's ~18C (64.4F) water sitting on the equator. That's about the same temp as the water off the shore of Massachusetts.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 20 2017, 12:12 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 20 2017, 12:07 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 20 2017, 01:09 AM) *
SST anomalies of up to -4C (-7.2F) are showing up in the eastern tropical Pacific. That means there's ~18C (64.4F) water sitting on the equator. That's about the same temp as the water off the shore of Massachusetts.




Brrrr lol

It is interesting to note though that the atmospheric easterlies forecasted next week are in link with the MJO right now. Could we have finally linked up with a la nina atmospheric state with oceanic? Seems so based off the 90 day hovmollers showing that MJO wave back in July matches another decent u wind anomaly over that region of the ocean and in fact traveled with the MJO wave.

Attached File  u.anom.30.5S_5N.gif ( 189.97K ) Number of downloads: 0

90 day 850 u wind anom

Attached File  tm_order_2.gif ( 32.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


If this is true we should still be seeing an increase in tropical activity as we head into october with at least a few more storms forming. MJO may help this as the next wave is looking to at least make conditions in the Atlantic possibly favorable for multiple small systems, we are starting to cut into the fuel from the islands westward except carribean and regions of the GOM. So it will be interesting to see where they develop.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Sep 20 2017, 12:08 PM


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 20 2017, 09:20 PM
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CFS near this time last year...



CFS now



Got curious what the subsurface looked like this time last year. Couldn't find anything archived in the last thread except for this. The subsurface from this exact day last year. Bad quality.



Most recent data we've got is from 5 days ago


Here's a subsurface from early October. This was about a month before its peak.



As of right now, this Nina appears much more east-based.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 20 2017, 09:32 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 12:05 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Sep 20 2017, 01:07 PM) *
Brrrr lol

It is interesting to note though that the atmospheric easterlies forecasted next week are in link with the MJO right now. Could we have finally linked up with a la nina atmospheric state with oceanic? Seems so based off the 90 day hovmollers showing that MJO wave back in July matches another decent u wind anomaly over that region of the ocean and in fact traveled with the MJO wave.

Attached File  u.anom.30.5S_5N.gif ( 189.97K ) Number of downloads: 0

90 day 850 u wind anom

Attached File  tm_order_2.gif ( 32.35K ) Number of downloads: 0


If this is true we should still be seeing an increase in tropical activity as we head into october with at least a few more storms forming. MJO may help this as the next wave is looking to at least make conditions in the Atlantic possibly favorable for multiple small systems, we are starting to cut into the fuel from the islands westward except carribean and regions of the GOM. So it will be interesting to see where they develop.

As I said in my previous post, I dug through the old thread for some perspective. First let's compare the GFS zonal anomalies from this time last year to right now.




Compared to last year, I'd say there's been consistently stronger trades since the beginning of September this year. The trades came in 'waves' last year.

Another interesting thing is the weakened trades around 90E. That was either the result or cause of the strong -IOD in the summer that dissipated in the fall.

Last... look at the SSTAs this time last year compared to this year.



Pretty insane. I was joking that the east Pacific looked like a strong Nino, the west Pacific looked like a weak Nina. This year looks much more like a classically developing Nina (i.e., develops east-to-west). This definitely has better potential to be a multi-year Nina than the one last winter.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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