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> Long Range Summer 2017 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and more
NorEaster07
post May 30 2017, 12:03 PM
Post #41




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https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/869571096378580992

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NorEaster07
post May 30 2017, 12:07 PM
Post #42




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Todays Upper Height pattern.


You have a Vortex/Upper Low in Canada, a cold Jet stream cutting across the region and Southeast hot ridge which just cant pop north because of it.

In between you have storms and boundary layer which is causing the rains and clouds mostly in Northeast I think.

Attached File  Map130.jpg ( 395.43K ) Number of downloads: 2




Fridays Upper Height Pattern.


Vortex still there just spinning and spinning across Ontario and Quebec for days.


Attached File  Map131.jpg ( 393.52K ) Number of downloads: 2





Mondays Upper height Pattern.

No change.. Vortex and troughiness still in Northeast


Attached File  Map132.jpg ( 375.13K ) Number of downloads: 2




June 15th Upper Height Pattern. (2 weeks away, can change)


No Vortex/Upper Low and the Ridge can pop north with heat filtering into Eastern Canada and U.S

Attached File  Map133.jpg ( 401.58K ) Number of downloads: 4



NAO been negative. We finally go positive by mid June but some members stay negative though. We'll see.


Attached File  NAO.jpg ( 59.39K ) Number of downloads: 1





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so_whats_happeni...
post May 30 2017, 03:07 PM
Post #43




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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 30 2017, 10:39 AM) *
Recurring modes suggest an Intermountain trough deliverance in the 16-20d range. Forward month suggests warm hues in the East.




Yea seems like after mid month things might break, for how long that remains to be seen but as of now the second half of June is starting to have the warmer look.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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2016/2017
2017/2018


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NorEaster07
post May 30 2017, 08:08 PM
Post #44




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https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/869571646767726597

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ClicheVortex2014
post May 30 2017, 10:57 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 30 2017, 10:39 AM) *
Recurring modes suggest an Intermountain trough deliverance in the 16-20d range. Forward month suggests warm hues in the East.






QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 30 2017, 04:07 PM) *
Yea seems like after mid month things might break, for how long that remains to be seen but as of now the second half of June is starting to have the warmer look.

Calling it now... there'll be a lot of hype about summer finally emerging (models getting too ambitious), possibly people talking about locking onto a summer pattern (hype)... then that lock disappears, cooler weather shows up, then we get a stronger summer pattern.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 30 2017, 11:01 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post May 31 2017, 06:30 AM
Post #46




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Euro00z for Hartford.... An 850mb airmass in the 30s....twice.. in June? blink.gif
Saturday and again mid week. Normal is 9C (48F) for Albany.

Attached File  Data3.jpg ( 465.28K ) Number of downloads: 1

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kpk33x
post May 31 2017, 08:19 AM
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UTS and I seem to be on the same page (a couple pages back)...if we can create/maintain high soil moisture content we could see a seasonable to even cool summer here in MA/NE. I agree with him that it would also cause high humidity and yucky/sticky conditions more often than not.

Not saying the underlying causes are the same, but perhaps the results will be similar to the summer of 2003 in the MA. In Maryland anyway that summer produced a cool June and July and August was perhaps half a degree above normal...but it was wet with 2"+ above normal rainfall each month on the way to the wettest year on record at BWI. It seemed like there were showers and thunderstorms every day. There were not many pleasant low humidity/cool days either - it was sticky whenever the sun was out (which wasn't too often). That's still better than a summer 2010 or 2011 toaster oven IMO laugh.gif


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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NorEaster07
post May 31 2017, 12:44 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ May 31 2017, 09:19 AM) *
UTS and I seem to be on the same page (a couple pages back)...if we can create/maintain high soil moisture content we could see a seasonable to even cool summer here in MA/NE. I agree with him that it would also cause high humidity and yucky/sticky conditions more often than not.


An interesting topic. I'd like to see more evidence or studies on this. Experience has shown that even during dry soil and drought conditions humidity and dews go high. Maybe its a coastal thing only? I haven't found soil conditions a factor. It's all about the pattern anyway. A Bermuda High will give us high dew points no matter how dry the soil is IMO from my experience. Take Spring 2013 for instance. Very Dry. 5th driest on record in fact. Mini dust storms when mowing. Even I thought would help control the summer humidity at the time, yet that summer we had 31 days in a row with dews in the 70s which is unusual to get straight like that. blink.gif
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Undertakerson
post May 31 2017, 03:35 PM
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I'm all but ready to write June off, in its entirety, for any noteworthy warm/hot spells. sad.gif

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 258.8K ) Number of downloads: 2


Attached File  P_96hr500.gif ( 248.58K ) Number of downloads: 0


Those backyard pools may never get warm enough, at this rate.
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Undertakerson
post May 31 2017, 03:36 PM
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Posted on my Wx FB page a while ago.

Attached File  gfs_z500aNorm_namer_26.png ( 446.98K ) Number of downloads: 3


And more recently.

Attached File  f240.gif ( 159.11K ) Number of downloads: 4


Look familiar?
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stretchct
post May 31 2017, 03:37 PM
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Euro has me under an upper low or trough for the next 10 days. We need new emojis.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post May 31 2017, 03:40 PM
Post #52




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 31 2017, 01:44 PM) *
An interesting topic. I'd like to see more evidence or studies on this. Experience has shown that even during dry soil and drought conditions humidity and dews go high. Maybe its a coastal thing only? I haven't found soil conditions a factor. It's all about the pattern anyway. A Bermuda High will give us high dew points no matter how dry the soil is IMO from my experience. Take Spring 2013 for instance. Very Dry. 5th driest on record in fact. Mini dust storms when mowing. Even I thought would help control the summer humidity at the time, yet that summer we had 31 days in a row with dews in the 70s which is unusual to get straight like that. blink.gif

If ground moisture is evaporating, does it cool? I think JB pointed that out years ago, but if I remember, it only delayed the onset of summer, didn't kill it off. Pattern will overcome it eventually.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis




First measurable
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 31 2017, 08:09 PM
Post #53




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 31 2017, 04:36 PM) *
Posted on my Wx FB page a while ago.

Attached File  gfs_z500aNorm_namer_26.png ( 446.98K ) Number of downloads: 3


And more recently.

Attached File  f240.gif ( 159.11K ) Number of downloads: 4


Look familiar?

On the bright side... the axis of the ridge is at least progressing laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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idecline
post May 31 2017, 08:37 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 31 2017, 03:36 PM) *
Posted on my Wx FB page a while ago.

Attached File  gfs_z500aNorm_namer_26.png ( 446.98K ) Number of downloads: 3


And more recently.

Attached File  f240.gif ( 159.11K ) Number of downloads: 4


Look familiar?


...um...Omega...?


QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1139 AM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 03 2017 - 12Z WED JUN 07 2017

PATTERN OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

LARGE SCALE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE
(SAT-WED) FEATURES A FORMING SQUASHED OMEGA BLOCK ALONG 45-50N.
RIDGING WILL CENTER WEST OF HUDSON BAY (NORTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO SOUTHERN NUNAVUT) WITH TROUGHING
SETTING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS, AND HAVE
CONTINUED THAT TREND WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE. THE
06Z GFS/GEFS WERE NOT USED DUE TO ITS SLOWER HANDLING OF THE LEAD
SOUTHERN CANADIAN SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ON SAT/SUN. THIS
WILL SUPPORT AN EASTERN FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST NEXT WEEK BUT
DIGGING FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A WESTERN FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IN THE WAKE OF A CYCLONE MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ACROSS THE WEST,
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH NORTHERN
SECTIONS, WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THIS PERIOD
IS LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH/OHIO VALLEY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND GULF COAST. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE ANTICIPATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THUS FAR THIS SPRING -- SUCH AS KY, WV, VA, AND LA
-- WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
NORTHEAST COULD SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF RAIN NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY (OR SLOWLY) THE UPPER LOW EXITS.


FRACASSO/ROTH


...enjoy the squash?... huh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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MotownWX
post May 31 2017, 09:42 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 29 2017, 03:42 PM) *



Two days later...


"Oops, hey wait a second, we almost forgot to blanket SEMI! Get that green paint in there. No way they're escaping the rain!" laugh.gif


Attached File  EarlyJune.jpg ( 35.77K ) Number of downloads: 1


This post has been edited by MotownWX: May 31 2017, 09:44 PM
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Undertakerson
post Jun 1 2017, 05:46 AM
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Cold front on or about D7 from today, seems to be quite potent and probably leads to some risk of severe storms from the GL's and to the points south and east. By itself, seems to be too weak to flip the pattern - but watching out west as a very deep pool seems poised to drop in through the PacNW/CA region. Can that be the stone that changes the ripples downstream? Or does it simply reinforce the amplified "blocky" pattern across the CONUS? I'm betting on the latter, but would love to be wrong about that.
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ILStormwatcher
post Jun 1 2017, 06:06 AM
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CFS hourly model through July 3rd shows a monster ridge over much of the country from mid month to basically Independence Day with widespread 90s and 100s, aka hot as a fire cracker. Ridge could then last into mid July likely before switching back out to a trough with cooler temps and more rain chances.
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Crimson_Sprite
post Jun 1 2017, 06:48 AM
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I actually dreamt it snowed about an inch last night 😧 I was aware it was June 1st as well and was flabbergasted at the snow. This troughiness with constant clouds rain and below normal temperatures is absolutely soul destroying for me. I have a solar cover on my pool since May 15th and can't even get to 70F!! I would literally sell my soul to have this weather pattern in the winter. I bet it flips come October 😂 Typical!!!

I want to bake so bad right now 😬

My poor flowers are rotting from the rain 😓


--------------------
Winter of the Shadow Snow 2012-2013 - - - - 30 total
Winter of Sub-Atomic Snow 2013-2014 - - - - 57.5 total
Winter of the Butterface Storms 2014-2015 - 69.25 total
Winter of Poo 2015-2016 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -9.25" total
Winter of Late Awakening (Beelzeblizzard) 2016-2017 --49" total


Storms 2017 Storm severity based on the Crimson Scale 1-5
May 1st -STWR- night storm, downed trees and powerlines, very close bright lightning -3
May 18 - STWR- evening storm, downed trees, spectacular lightning, no power 24hrs -4.5
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OSNW3
post Jun 1 2017, 09:30 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 8 2017, 08:28 AM) *
The next 3 months (MJJ) will host above average temperatures for #wiwx. An active May (many ups/dns), cool mid June, very warm July.



The chicken pox look to my RRWT Wisconsin weather forecast maps concerned me. I investigated. Found poorly indexed climatology. I fixed the issue. The paint strokes are less abstract now. Portraying a more minimalistic approach. Which is suitable for our region. For folks in WI, below is the RRWT Summer temperature outlook for our fine state and surrounding areas.



We shall see!
http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-t.html


--------------------
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kpk33x
post Jun 1 2017, 09:40 AM
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The GFS has the 540 line getting down to us overnight, so if there are leftover showers in the mountains, I would not be surprised if Mt. Washington picks up a little snow (not exactly a rare event, but demonstrates the cold air aloft).

If the 6z GFS is to be believed, it appears after a slight relaxation of the trough in the east around June 14-15 that a strong low is moving through Quebec on the 17th and we may bleed into the last third of June with the current regime. It is too early to worry about that yet - we're talking about the last 2 frames of the 6z GFS - but I'm not seeing anything anywhere that a drastic pattern change is coming. It appears that the trough overall may lift SLIGHTLY north, and we're talking about 100-150 miles on the tracks, but every time the SER tries to establish itself north of NYC along comes another front to knock it back, then the upper level low sits and spins a day or two.

The thing saving May (and probably June, too) from showing up way below normal are the overnight lows. We're having small diurnal ranges, so our overnight lows have been above normal even on days when the highs are 5-10F below normal. That's not the pattern that vacationers and summer weather wishers want to see, especially once you're north into the Great Lakes and New England. There just does not seem to be a lasting SER influence into those areas.

Barring a pattern flip, I'd now put the chances of a wet and normal to cool (cool max temps more than min) summer in New England well above 50% here on June 1, especially since a hot and dry July and August would be needed to make up the stagger on June and send the 3 months to the hot/dry side of normal.

Once down into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic...more SER influence and a bit warmer relative to normal but the fronts coming through are at least keeping the drought away (annoying as they may be).

This is just one man's opinion looking at long range models and BSR on June 1, but kind of like looking at Christmas from December 1 it could be a lot different once we get there.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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