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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
goblue96
post Apr 25 2017, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Apr 25 2017, 10:09 AM) *
After much agonizing research my first prediction for next winter is that it will be colder in some places versus last winter & warmer in some places versus last winter. Some places will have above normal snowfall & some will have below.

You heard it here first smile.gif


Stop the presses!!!!!

This guy has the forecast nailed!


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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grace
post Apr 26 2017, 11:03 PM
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Why oh why can't CFS be correct for JAN:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0



smile.gif
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 26 2017, 11:54 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Apr 27 2017, 12:03 AM) *
Why oh why can't CFS be correct for JAN:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
smile.gif


Maybe its sniffing out the descending easterlies actually taking hold with wave activity being there from what could be a weak nino. Just thoughts for now.


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Southern Missour...
post Jun 1 2017, 08:43 AM
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Kind of an odd early forecast but wanted to have something to post to get this thread going again. It's already June, everyone, and we are getting closer! smile.gif

https://youtu.be/P-jFJrJZIio

This post has been edited by Southern Missouri Snow Fan: Jun 1 2017, 08:43 AM
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snowsux
post Jun 1 2017, 10:40 AM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Jun 1 2017, 09:43 AM) *
Kind of an odd early forecast but wanted to have something to post to get this thread going again. It's already June, everyone, and we are getting closer! smile.gif

https://youtu.be/P-jFJrJZIio


I haven't followed JB in a couple of months, however I'm sure he'd agree with this. Your forecast might actually not be cold and snowy enough in the east for his liking though.
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Southern Missour...
post Jun 1 2017, 03:00 PM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Jun 1 2017, 10:40 AM) *
I haven't followed JB in a couple of months, however I'm sure he'd agree with this. Your forecast might actually not be cold and snowy enough in the east for his liking though.


That could be true lol. That said, its not my forecast.
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grace
post Jun 2 2017, 07:20 PM
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If I were a betting man I'd bet this winter is better than last smile.gif
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snowlover2
post Jun 2 2017, 08:04 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 2 2017, 08:20 PM) *
If I were a betting man I'd bet this winter is better than last smile.gif

Couldn't be any worse.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:

Biggest Snowfall:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 7 2017, 02:21 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Jun 1 2017, 09:43 AM) *
Kind of an odd early forecast but wanted to have something to post to get this thread going again. It's already June, everyone, and we are getting closer! smile.gif

https://youtu.be/P-jFJrJZIio

Good gravy, let's put all the eggs in one very unlikely basket and call it a forecast!

I'm unsure why the 6-10 day forecast is remotely relevant to a 5-8 month forecast. However, let's assume these forecasts are in some way related; the 6-10 day forecast doesn't align with his winter forecast.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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JDClapper
post Jun 7 2017, 02:39 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 13 2017, 06:35 PM) *
Chilly/damp weather continues in the west

Warm/dry weather continues in the southeast

Perhaps an active GLC storm track as we've seen develop this spring


Florida getting a good dose recently .. brief anomaly, or getting back to "normal"? Effects on upcoming winter's primary track?

Questions, questions. smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 8 2017, 01:21 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jun 7 2017, 03:39 PM) *
Florida getting a good dose recently .. brief anomaly, or getting back to "normal"? Effects on upcoming winter's primary track?

Questions, questions. smile.gif

There has been a good dose of precip across much of the eastern US.

The summer patterns are more difficult to apply precipitation proxies too given the relative abundance of convective rather than stratiform precipitation systems.

My general forecast for the US this summer is stormy Pac NW, hot and dry desert SW, and the eastern US will be typically variable. A week of hot and dry followed by a week of cooler storminess then rinse and repeat. When it's all said and done I think the largest positive precipitation anomalies will be near the MS/OH river valleys and the western slope of the Appalachians.

I don't want to get too much into the winter forecast until the convection machine shuts off in September/October. Overall, I favor a weak east-based Nino that generally favors a similar pattern to last year, especially given the likelihood of a record minimum arctic sea ice extent.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 8 2017, 06:37 PM
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Strong downwelling of easterlies in the QBO region should certainly make for an interesting winter forecast as well as no real sign popping up of either nino or nina. If we manage to to get a weak nino the wave activity through winter will help with stratospheric processes versus the past couple of years so really wouldnt be surprised if we start seeing people bring the cold guns out across the CONUS for winter.

IMO its too early to call such things but will certainly be something to watch come end of july.


--------------------
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B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


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NorEaster07
post Jun 8 2017, 07:20 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 8 2017, 07:37 PM) *
Strong downwelling of easterlies in the QBO region should certainly make for an interesting winter forecast as well as no real sign popping up of either nino or nina. If we manage to to get a weak nino the wave activity through winter will help with stratospheric processes versus the past couple of years so really wouldnt be surprised if we start seeing people bring the cold guns out across the CONUS for winter.


And he Cues with the blues tongue.gif

New update this month soon. This was from last month.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...orecast.html.en

Attached File  JMA.jpg ( 199.55K ) Number of downloads: 4

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 8 2017, 08:59 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 8 2017, 08:20 PM) *
And he Cues with the blues tongue.gif

New update this month soon. This was from last month.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...orecast.html.en

Attached File  JMA.jpg ( 199.55K ) Number of downloads: 4


It was bound to happen I remember the CFS showing this before well we know what happened the past two winters and same with jamstec. I think one thing to take note is how well the model is producing the ocean temps and base it off how well that is holding up. If those hold up well that should give more concrete ideas that the model may be handling things well. With neutral ENSO and nothing really to extreme showing up I feel models should be able to perform better with long range ideas.


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MaineJay
post Jun 9 2017, 06:46 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 8 2017, 07:37 PM) *
Strong downwelling of easterlies in the QBO region should certainly make for an interesting winter forecast as well as no real sign popping up of either nino or nina. If we manage to to get a weak nino the wave activity through winter will help with stratospheric processes versus the past couple of years so really wouldnt be surprised if we start seeing people bring the cold guns out across the CONUS for winter.

IMO its too early to call such things but will certainly be something to watch come end of july.



It seems to me that the persistent +PDO (40 months now according to jisao) is playing a significant role in North American flow currently, and potentially down the line absent a change from this regime.



CODE

2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08 1.49 1.72 2.51
2015** 2.45 2.30 2.00 1.44 1.20 1.54 1.84 1.56 1.94 1.47 0.86 1.01
2016** 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62 2.35 2.03 1.25 0.52 0.45 0.56 1.88 1.17
2017** 0.77 0.70 0.74 1.12


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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kpk33x
post Jun 9 2017, 10:05 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 8 2017, 02:21 PM) *
There has been a good dose of precip across much of the eastern US.

The summer patterns are more difficult to apply precipitation proxies too given the relative abundance of convective rather than stratiform precipitation systems.

My general forecast for the US this summer is stormy Pac NW, hot and dry desert SW, and the eastern US will be typically variable. A week of hot and dry followed by a week of cooler storminess then rinse and repeat. When it's all said and done I think the largest positive precipitation anomalies will be near the MS/OH river valleys and the western slope of the Appalachians.

I don't want to get too much into the winter forecast until the convection machine shuts off in September/October. Overall, I favor a weak east-based Nino that generally favors a similar pattern to last year, especially given the likelihood of a record minimum arctic sea ice extent.


In agreement with the summer...it appears that we are off to a wetter start with the variable pattern you mentioned...up here we have a cool and rainy period alternating with sunny and warm, with brief hot spikes before it cools back off. Different from last summers long and dry spells, that is for sure. We will have to see how the pattern evolves for the fall in the east, but so far a wetter and cooler summer seems to increase the chances that we don't have a dry and warm fall/winter again (although here while it was several degrees above normal it was very snowy).

I'm in "wait and see" mode, but I am encouraged by the summer start...if we can stay cooler and wetter that makes me happier.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 14 2017, 02:21 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 9 2017, 07:46 AM) *
It seems to me that the persistent +PDO (40 months now according to jisao) is playing a significant role in North American flow currently, and potentially down the line absent a change from this regime.
CODE

2014** 0.30 0.38 0.97 1.13 1.80 0.82 0.70 0.67 1.08 1.49 1.72 2.51
2015** 2.45 2.30 2.00 1.44 1.20 1.54 1.84 1.56 1.94 1.47 0.86 1.01
2016** 1.53 1.75 2.40 2.62 2.35 2.03 1.25 0.52 0.45 0.56 1.88 1.17
2017** 0.77 0.70 0.74 1.12


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt


Wow now that is impressive stuck pattern much. Does argue the idea of nino trying to pop but have yet to see compelling evidence.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 14 2017, 08:04 PM
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JAMSTEC finally updated. Finally budging on the Nino. Interestingly, it has a -PDO now. Last month it almost had a -PDO, but not quite.




Surface temp pattern isn't much different from last month... just slightly warmer.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 14 2017, 08:05 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Jun 15 2017, 05:06 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jun 8 2017, 01:21 PM) *
There has been a good dose of precip across much of the eastern US.

The summer patterns are more difficult to apply precipitation proxies too given the relative abundance of convective rather than stratiform precipitation systems.

My general forecast for the US this summer is stormy Pac NW, hot and dry desert SW, and the eastern US will be typically variable. A week of hot and dry followed by a week of cooler storminess then rinse and repeat. When it's all said and done I think the largest positive precipitation anomalies will be near the MS/OH river valleys and the western slope of the Appalachians.

I don't want to get too much into the winter forecast until the convection machine shuts off in September/October. Overall, I favor a weak east-based Nino that generally favors a similar pattern to last year, especially given the likelihood of a record minimum arctic sea ice extent.


Best place to keep up with Arctic Sea Ice is American WEATHER Climate Change forum:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48618-a...volume/?page=17

After volume took a huge hit from last 2 warm Arctic winters having very low sea ice growth tables seemed set to make a run at 2012 record minimum...BUT NOT ANYMORE. Very slow start to melt season & surprising cold Arctic May due to pattern & above normal snow depth on ice it's looking very unlikely to catch 2012. A very strong summer dipole pattern or something unusual would be needed to put melt back on track.

QUOTE
A 2007 pattern starting in late May would have done it this year I think. But that's an exceptionally bad pattern -- ergo pretty rare. This year is a bit wierd. We've got record low starting volume, but high adjacent land snowcover and a decent snowpack left on the ice in most areas. There isn't as much blue ponding on Worldview this year as last year or 2012, for instance, but there's a lot more open water in the ESS and Chukchi. I think the warm winter had the effect of dumping more snow on the pack than we saw in previous years. This has a lot higher albedo, *bleep*ing initial melt, but once that protective covering is eroded, the underlying thinner ice is melted more quickly.

Not really sure which way to go this year because of the confounding factors. I don't think big domes of high pressure are going to necessarily get the job done in the melting department though. Wind and sun is really needed to take care of the snowpack and weaken the inversion and break the low level cloud cover that sets up as a result
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 15 2017, 05:25 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 15 2017, 06:06 PM) *
Best place to keep up with Arctic Sea Ice is American WEATHER Climate Change forum:

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/48618-a...volume/?page=17

After volume took a huge hit from last 2 warm Arctic winters having very low sea ice growth tables seemed set to make a run at 2012 record minimum...BUT NOT ANYMORE. Very slow start to melt season & surprising cold Arctic May due to pattern & above normal snow depth on ice it's looking very unlikely to catch 2012. A very strong summer dipole pattern or something unusual would be needed to put melt back on track.


Ill have to get the site for other arctic sea ice talk they post images and go into sometimes great discussion, very knowledgeable. As well as stratospheric conditions but that is for another thread.

They mention the region across siberia/russia region that has been anomalously cold that has helped maintain ice around that region. Chuchki and berring strait region have just never recovered from winter and were bound to be the first to go.

Curious to see how things play out with temps maxing out in about 45 days and should start to head into the end of the melt season in less than 3 months, man how time flies. Overall the pattern seems fairly neutral but will see how things develop and if dipole sets up across the area.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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