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> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
Southern Missour...
post Sep 11 2017, 09:04 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 9 2017, 04:52 PM) *
Really hope he didn't give Euro a high weight in his forecast. A warm-neutral ENSO is pretty much out of the question at this point.

Then again, I expect nothing less from JB. Just thankful that the Brazilian isn't a seasonal forecast model like CFS or Euro.


Yeah, I agree with you re: prospects of a warm-neutral ENSO.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 12 2017, 12:09 AM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Sep 11 2017, 10:04 AM) *
Yeah, I agree with you re: prospects of a warm-neutral ENSO.

Good news is that set of analogs has a weak Nina. Bad news is the SSTs in his choice of analogs don't exactly support a +PNA.




Those aren't his final analogs, but I'm sure he'll find some cold winter analogs to add in there. He said in his post "temps were colder farther to the north than I'd like to see"... yeah, I bet...

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 12 2017, 12:10 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Sep 12 2017, 09:24 PM
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RRWT has subtle changes. A step in direction toward Nina looking pattern but still not bad through 12/31
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jdrenken
post Sep 13 2017, 07:48 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 9 2017, 04:52 PM) *
Really hope he didn't give Euro a high weight in his forecast. A warm-neutral ENSO is pretty much out of the question at this point.

Then again, I expect nothing less from JB. Just thankful that the Brazilian isn't a seasonal forecast model like CFS or Euro.


Actually...it would be considered something between a sub-seasonal and seasonal.

Chicago


NYC


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ILStormwatcher
post Sep 13 2017, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 13 2017, 07:48 AM) *
Actually...it would be considered something between a sub-seasonal and seasonal.

Chicago


NYC


Looks warm and boring in the Midwest for Winter if I'm reading that right for Chicago, at least through New Years. St. Louis would be even worse in terms of warmth and drought/lack of precipitation. Midwest going through or starting a hot/dry cycle?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 13 2017, 10:03 PM
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JAMSTEC is still coming around to the idea of a Nina, though not quite there yet IMO.

SSTA progressions with links to last month's run to see the difference

Sep 2017 for Meteorological Fall


(August 2017 for Meteorological Fall)
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...17.1aug2017.gif

September 2017 for Meteorological Winter


(August 2017 for Meteorological Winter)
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...18.1aug2017.gif

September 2017 for Meteorological Winter


(August 2017 for Meteorological Winter)
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...18.1aug2017.gif

September 2017 2-year Nino 3.4 forecast


(August 2017 2-year Nino 3.4 forecast)
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...yr.1aug2017.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 13 2017, 10:18 PM
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Though we don't have agreement with CFS regarding strength of Nina... we do have agreement on the idea of a neutral or weakly -PDO winter for the first time since 2011-12.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 13 2017, 10:18 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 14 2017, 04:57 AM
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I think this was necessary. There will be less headline titles


"Hazard Simplification is Coming Soon!

What does this mean? On October 2, 2017, the National Weather Service will implement changes to our winter weather messaging. The primary goal of these changes is to better serve you, the customer. Please see the short video below for additional details."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mwi-5LqwK0Q
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NorEaster07
post Sep 14 2017, 06:18 AM
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Attached File  Screenshot_20170914_071706.png ( 1.91MB ) Number of downloads: 13
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grace
post Sep 14 2017, 12:02 PM
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JMA seasonal is not a bad pattern at all. Looks kinda 2007-08...ish.
Mean trough a little more broad & a hair further east.

With it being a DJF mean forecast, quick cold air intrusions likely followed by warm ups.

It IS BETTER looking than DJF 2016-17. So no complaints from me if it verifies.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/...map1/pztmap.php
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ILStormwatcher
post Sep 14 2017, 02:46 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 13 2017, 10:18 PM) *
Though we don't have agreement with CFS regarding strength of Nina... we do have agreement on the idea of a neutral or weakly -PDO winter for the first time since 2011-12.



Please don't say that. Winter 2011-2012 was boring as heck around St. Louis. It was boring as heck the last 2 winters, don't need to make it 3 lousy winters in a row.
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grace
post Sep 14 2017, 02:54 PM
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https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status/908409934529941504
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 14 2017, 04:58 PM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Sep 14 2017, 03:46 PM) *
Please don't say that. Winter 2011-2012 was boring as heck around St. Louis. It was boring as heck the last 2 winters, don't need to make it 3 lousy winters in a row.

I love how people still lose their minds when I even remotely bring up 2011-12. Nowhere did I say this winter is going to be like 2011-12. I said this might be our first weakly negative PDO winter since then. Correlation is not causation. There's much more to it than the PDO.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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kpk33x
post Sep 14 2017, 08:34 PM
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QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Sep 13 2017, 09:41 AM) *
Looks warm and boring in the Midwest for Winter if I'm reading that right for Chicago, at least through New Years. St. Louis would be even worse in terms of warmth and drought/lack of precipitation. Midwest going through or starting a hot/dry cycle?


I really hope that the Midwest is not starting a hot dry cycle. Since we arrived in Illinois 2 weeks ago we've had a whopping 0.07" rain...though it has been primarily on the chilly side.


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First day with...
...Low below 40F:
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...First sub-freezing low:
...Snow reported:

Foliage: Some color starting to show (Sept. 14)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 14 2017, 09:18 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Sep 14 2017, 09:34 PM) *
I really hope that the Midwest is not starting a hot dry cycle. Since we arrived in Illinois 2 weeks ago we've had a whopping 0.07" rain...though it has been primarily on the chilly side.

No rain in the forecast for at least the next week. Not too worried about it because we thought we're entering that cycle many times over the past few years but then we get a ton of rain. But if the high-end Nina happens like CFS says, you can bet someone in the central or SE US is going to get a big drought.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 14 2017, 10:12 PM
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Sharing the Facebook post I made today to give my current thoughts. Basically... a possibly high-end weak central-based Nina with a cool NE Pacific definitely will not be a winter lovers friend. Just like last winter, we're gonna need HLB to keep it from being an overall warm winter. Even that isn't necessarily guaranteed to save us, but it's got the best shot.

QUOTE
We will see what is likely to be summers last gasp for the next week to week and a half before fall takes over. This weather pattern will be very typical of a La Nina regime pattern; very warm in the east, cool in the west. A La Nina is not technically in place currently, however, it is building up and is expected to be in full force for this winter.

During a La Nina, there is a decreased temperature gradient from the Equator to the Poles. Since the jet stream is dependent on a strong temperature gradient, La Ninas typically feature a weaker jet stream. Hurricanes depend on a weak jet stream, so that, along with very warm SSTs in the Atlantic, have given the US 2 devastating hurricanes already this season.

Unfortunately, hurricane Irma wasn't the end of the hurricane season. There are 2 low pressure systems coming off the coast of Africa that the National Hurricane Center has determined are likely to develop into a tropical cyclone. It's way too early to talk about who is going to be impacted and how badly. That won't come for at least another week.

As for this coming winter, I believe we'll be in a La Nina state. One of the major seasonal models has a historically significant (i.e., strong) La Nina developing. The other major seasonal model has a weak La Nina developing. Based on trends and the current look of the subsurface sea temperatures, I believe the latter model is playing catch up, and the former model is exaggerating the strength. I think it should be in between, possibly similar or a bit stronger than what we saw last winter.

Due to the above, I believe the SST pattern in the Pacific will favor a warmer than average winter (Dec/Jan/Feb) for the eastern US, and cooler than average for the western US. Two caveats though:
1) November and/or December typically end cooler than average and give the impression that this'll be a harsh winter, but January and February are usually warmer than average. When you put the 3 winter months (DJF) together, the eastern US comes out warm and western US comes out cool.

2) The Pacific SST pattern doesn't drive the winter pattern 100%. Probably more like 70%. The thing that could make this a cold winter is a disruption of the polar vortex from the North Pole toward the mid-latitudes. This is what happened in the winter of 2010-11 even though the pattern in the Pacific favored a warm winter. That was a rather extreme case, but possible nonetheless.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 14 2017, 10:15 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Sep 14 2017, 11:51 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 14 2017, 10:12 PM) *
Sharing the Facebook post I made today to give my current thoughts. Basically... a possibly high-end weak central-based Nina with a cool NE Pacific definitely will not be a winter lovers friend. Just like last winter, we're gonna need HLB to keep it from being an overall warm winter. Even that isn't necessarily guaranteed to save us, but it's got the best shot.


QBO is different...don't expect a repeat. Nina years mean temp is not usually blowtorch at all. Not sure why everyone thinks a Nina means 2011-12, or 2016-17...thats just not accurate.

Outside of Midwest I doubt we have a deep freeze either, but a typical Nina pattern is not terrible. Could we have a blowtorch? Sure, but a more typical Nina would not result in that for most.

I'm not saying you're saying that but just want to clarify for others that may read.

This post has been edited by grace: Sep 14 2017, 11:56 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 14 2017, 11:58 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Sep 15 2017, 12:51 AM) *
QBO is different...don't expect a repeat. Nina years mean is not usually blowtorch at all. Not sure why everyone thinks a Nina means 2011-12, or 2016-17...thats just not accurate


Generally speaking, Nina AND -PDO are both strongly correlated with -PNA just as Nino and +PDO are strongly correlated with +PNA.

We have Nina and -PDO this winter, unlike last. I'd say the ENSO configuration will at least somewhat resemble last winter. I say this due to the persistent enhanced trades around the IDL that has been occasionally bleeding east.

That's why I say we need favorable HLB, otherwise the Pacific is going to push for western troughiness.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 15 2017, 12:02 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 15 2017, 12:11 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Sep 15 2017, 12:51 AM) *
QBO is different...don't expect a repeat. Nina years mean temp is not usually blowtorch at all. Not sure why everyone thinks a Nina means 2011-12, or 2016-17...thats just not accurate.

Outside of Midwest I doubt we have a deep freeze either, but a typical Nina pattern is not terrible. Could we have a blowtorch? Sure, but a more typical Nina would not result in that for most.

I'm not saying you're saying that but just want to clarify for others that may read.

I figured that's what you were getting at. Not every Nina is expected to be like 2011-12 or 2016-17, but that's what can go wrong when you have that kind of setup and you don't get help from the Arctic.

2010-11 is an example of what happens when you get help from the Arctic with the same Pacific setup

Will this be a 2010-11 or 2011-12? It'll be interesting to see.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 15 2017, 12:11 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Sep 15 2017, 12:24 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 15 2017, 12:11 AM) *
I figured that's what you were getting at. Not every Nina is expected to be like 2011-12 or 2016-17, but that's what can go wrong when you have that kind of setup and you don't get help from the Arctic.

2010-11 is an example of what happens when you get help from the Arctic with the same Pacific setup

Will this be a 2010-11 or 2011-12? It'll be interesting to see.



2011 fall pattern sure looks like it might be similar to this one. Also QBO is still NOT negative at 50mb but is at 30
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