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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 19 2017, 12:35 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 19 2017, 12:06 PM) *
Mass winter weenie suicide if you're right. The east-based Nino makes sense based on the west-based Nina, but I'm not convinced about anything yet... too early.

If my memory serves me right, the most recent winter with regular GLCs was 2010-11. This was prior to the RRR developing out west and I don't think there's any question that the RRR is now R.I.P. Thus, it can't be long until a similar GLC pattern returns.

Given the tremendous western US precipitation anomalies of late, I expect more winter troughiness out west next year as well and happens to be consistent with an east-based Nino.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Apr 19 2017, 12:38 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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telejunkie
post Apr 19 2017, 12:40 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 19 2017, 01:35 PM) *
If my memory serves me right, the most recent winter with regular GLCs was 2010-11. This was prior to the RRR developing out west and I don't think there's any question that the RRR is now R.I.P. Thus, it can't be long until a similar GLC pattern returns.

Given the tremendous western US precipitation anomalies of late, I expect more winter troughiness out west next year as well. Fortunately, this is consistent with an east-based Nino.

'10-'11 may have featured a few GLCs...but definitely not the winter of GLCs as that was a huge winter for us here in central New England with several storms hugging the EC like the Boxing Day Blizzard. '07-'08 to me was more the last great year of the GLCs...that was a Nina year though. Somebody from upper Midwest could correct me here though.

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Apr 19 2017, 12:46 PM


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 19 2017, 12:53 PM
Post #103




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 19 2017, 01:35 PM) *
If my memory serves me right, the most recent winter with regular GLCs was 2010-11. This was prior to the RRR developing out west and I don't think there's any question that the RRR is now R.I.P. Thus, it can't be long until a similar GLC pattern returns.

Given the tremendous western US precipitation anomalies of late, I expect more winter troughiness out west next year as well and happens to be consistent with an east-based Nino.

LOL yeah, anyone that claims the RRR is still a thing needs to get their head checked out.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 19 2017, 12:54 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 19 2017, 06:41 PM
Post #104




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 19 2017, 01:35 PM) *
If my memory serves me right, the most recent winter with regular GLCs was 2010-11. This was prior to the RRR developing out west and I don't think there's any question that the RRR is now R.I.P. Thus, it can't be long until a similar GLC pattern returns.

Given the tremendous western US precipitation anomalies of late, I expect more winter troughiness out west next year as well and happens to be consistent with an east-based Nino.


I feel the biggest decider of whether the west coast will continue to see troughiness is whether we continue with the cool SST pattern that has overtaken the RRR region. With a positive PDO look still around we have to wait and see how it handles into the summer. This winter has been exceptional for them out west because of this feature but in the same respect do we have precip and temp anomalies for BC on north into Alaska region to go off of because this region will probably tell a different story. Dont really want to call it a rex block look but the pattern would suggest that fit through most of the winter (weakened ridge with persistent troughing cutting underneath).

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 19 2017, 01:53 PM) *
LOL yeah, anyone that claims the RRR is still a thing needs to get their head checked out.


It may not be at its peak but we definitely need to watch those SSTs across much of the northern PAC as that will be the teller of what comes down the line.


--------------------
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Millersville University


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 19 2017, 07:06 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Apr 19 2017, 01:40 PM) *
'10-'11 may have featured a few GLCs...but definitely not the winter of GLCs as that was a huge winter for us here in central New England with several storms hugging the EC like the Boxing Day Blizzard. '07-'08 to me was more the last great year of the GLCs...that was a Nina year though. Somebody from upper Midwest could correct me here though.


I would agree pretty abysmal year down here that year to be followed by a record setting year down here with back to back 2 foot snow storms within a week. One could argue 11-12 was another one of those years but I feel the atmospheric pattern itself was just not there in 10-11 to kick it over to full nina conditions as we still managed an above average year that year down here.

Its crazy bringing up PDO again it looks like since about the mid 90's we have been in a pattern where the PDO switches back and forth, in a sense, between positive and negative period with a periodicity of about 5 years. So going by this 2019 should be the last year we see the positive effects of a PDO, curious to see if this occurs or if we do actually flip earlier.

Who knows but cool to check out for sure, both times had nina and -PDO status and sea ice doesnt really show too much leading into 2007 we saw a large drop of sea ice where we reached a minimum in 07 maintained that for a bit and then again this happened from 2011 to 2012. Not very telling but something pretty interesting to note.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
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Stratosphere Discussion:
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AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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MaineJay
post Apr 20 2017, 04:44 AM
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CFS advertising a potent equatorial Rossby wave that disrupts the trade winds fairly significantly.

Attached File  uwnd850.cfs.eqtr__2_.png ( 142.77K ) Number of downloads: 1


--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far" - Theodore Roosevelt.

MJ SN-o-meter. Each dash represents 1", 84 in total for 7', my average
//////////////////////////////////////////
//////////////////////////////////////////

***Bonus snow***
//////////////////////////////////////////
//

130" season to date
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 20 2017, 10:12 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 20 2017, 05:44 AM) *
CFS advertising a potent equatorial Rossby wave that disrupts the trade winds fairly significantly.

Attached File  uwnd850.cfs.eqtr__2_.png ( 142.77K ) Number of downloads: 1




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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stuffradio
post Apr 20 2017, 02:00 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Apr 20 2017, 02:44 AM) *
CFS advertising a potent equatorial Rossby wave that disrupts the trade winds fairly significantly.

Attached File  uwnd850.cfs.eqtr__2_.png ( 142.77K ) Number of downloads: 1

Would this have any effect on the RRT?
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 21 2017, 01:05 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 19 2017, 07:41 PM) *
I feel the biggest decider of whether the west coast will continue to see troughiness is whether we continue with the cool SST pattern that has overtaken the RRR region. With a positive PDO look still around we have to wait and see how it handles into the summer. This winter has been exceptional for them out west because of this feature but in the same respect do we have precip and temp anomalies for BC on north into Alaska region to go off of because this region will probably tell a different story. Dont really want to call it a rex block look but the pattern would suggest that fit through most of the winter (weakened ridge with persistent troughing cutting underneath).
It may not be at its peak but we definitely need to watch those SSTs across much of the northern PAC as that will be the teller of what comes down the line.

The biggest deciders of North American climate patterns are 1. inter-annual patterns of variability (primarily ENSO, secondary influences from persistent extratropical SSTAs such as 'the blob' or soil moisture anomalies), 2. patterns of intra-annual variability (primarily PNA, NAO/AO), 3. patterns of decadal variability (primarily PDO/AMO).

It's likely that the PDO/AMO patterns influence the frequency of one phase or the other for ENSO, PNA, NAO/AO patterns, but this influence is at decadal rather than year-to-year, season-to-season, or month-to-month time scales. Therefore, predicting monthly to yearly patterns based on decadal patterns of variability is flawed methodology. My forecast is based on an east-based El Nino developing combined with observations indicating large soil moisture anomalies and the lack of a RRR feature.

To say the exceptional precipitation out west was due to just one factor is over-simplifying the truth. Yes, the SSTAs in the North Pacific Ocean are important, but the SSTAs in the ENSO region are more important. Additionally, I think a good argument could be made that soil moisture anomalies are at least as important as Nor-Pac SSTAs.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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grace
post Apr 21 2017, 08:00 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 19 2017, 09:57 AM) *
IMHO, based on current conditions, a weak to moderate east-based El Nino appears most likely for the 17-18 season.

However, the build-up of subsurface cool anomalies suggests potential for a multi-year La Nina event to develop during either the 18-19 or 19-20 seasons.



Come on....there's no reason under the sun to say that...lol.

In fact, AGW is causing more central based Nino's

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/...9326/8/1/014019

Personally, I think the models are onto something
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 22 2017, 01:14 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Apr 21 2017, 09:00 PM) *
Come on....there's no reason under the sun to say that...lol.

In fact, AGW is causing more central based Nino's

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/...9326/8/1/014019

Personally, I think the models are onto something

The article only mentions a recent decadal increase in central-based El Ninos, it could be AGW but it could also be natural variability associated with the PDO. Certain modeling studies do suggest an increase in central based El Ninos associated with AGW scenarios, but I wouldn't hang my hat on those early results.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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grace
post Apr 22 2017, 10:00 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 22 2017, 01:14 AM) *
The article only mentions a recent decadal increase in central-based El Ninos, it could be AGW but it could also be natural variability associated with the PDO. Certain modeling studies do suggest an increase in central based El Ninos associated with AGW scenarios, but I wouldn't hang my hat on those early results.



I was just messin...to early for me to have any thought at all

This post has been edited by grace: Apr 22 2017, 10:00 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 22 2017, 10:04 AM
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Getting over that spring barrier... CFS starting to realize this may not be a big event



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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grace
post Apr 22 2017, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 22 2017, 10:04 AM) *
Getting over that spring barrier... CFS starting to realize this may not be a big event




It'll be funny if we have a neutral/positive event. Wouldn't be surprising if this is a beginning of a trend in that direction
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