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AccuWeather.com Forums _ Long-Range U.S. Forecasts _ Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta

Posted by: OSNW3 Aug 31 2014, 10:20 AM

Let's begin with last years (8/1/13-7/31/14) dominant components.



75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15

Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up much. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic can prove to be solid guidance as we know the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak.



Below is the average of each component 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.



What about this coming season? http://www.theplayerstour.net/downloads/mwus-correl.html However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.



With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 to find the LRC and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics.

But, I haven't looked at maps, anyone seeing this 58-60 or 74-76 day connection? Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day. smile.gif

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 1 2014, 05:54 PM

I finally was able to upload the http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1113 from 19AUG14 on the KOPN Freedom Forum radio show.

Posted by: WeatherMonger Sep 7 2014, 05:19 PM

So the system upcoming midweek, would you consider this a part of the 13/14 or 14/15 cycle.

Posted by: The Snowman Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM) *
Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?

[attachment=238938:IMG_2014...7_194842.jpg]

Gnarly.

Will be intriguing to watch for a corresponding TR signal comes up down the road, should this forecast verify.

Posted by: grace Sep 7 2014, 09:34 PM

QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM) *
Gnarly.

Will be intriguing to watch for a corresponding TR signal comes up down the road, should this forecast verify.


That may cool the N Pacific temporarily a little.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Sep 7 2014, 09:42 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM) *
Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?

[attachment=238938:IMG_2014...7_194842.jpg]

Is this the correlation to a trough in the east 6 weeks later?

Posted by: The Snowman Sep 7 2014, 10:06 PM

QUOTE(grace @ Sep 7 2014, 09:34 PM) *
That may cool the N Pacific temporarily a little.

We'll have to see if the storm ends up as strong as projected. If it stays in the Pacific, as the ECMWF seems to indicate after the 120hr image, the NE PAC/GOA shouldn't be affected too much. But yes, certainly something to watch.

Posted by: The Snowman Sep 7 2014, 10:21 PM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 7 2014, 09:42 PM) *
Is this the correlation to a trough in the east 6 weeks later?

The Bering Sea Rule correlates to weather in the US 2.5-3 weeks later.

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 7 2014, 11:12 PM

QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 10:06 PM) *
We'll have to see if the storm ends up as strong as projected. If it stays in the Pacific, as the ECMWF seems to indicate after the 120hr image, the NE PAC/GOA shouldn't be affected too much. But yes, certainly something to watch.


WPC has it at 972mb in North Central Bering Sea.


 

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Sep 8 2014, 08:19 AM

QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 10:21 PM) *
The Bering Sea Rule correlates to weather in the US 2.5-3 weeks later.

potato pototo laugh.gif Not sure where I was getting 6 weeks.....I thought that sounded alittle off in my head

Posted by: WeatherMonger Sep 8 2014, 09:34 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 08:34 PM) *
Agreed. I am betting it will resemble something like the last 5 days of July. ~60 day harmonic puts it down the last 5 days of September. We shall see.

That was a pretty big moderate risk bust weekend(end of July). Be interesting to see what will happen

Posted by: hbgweather Sep 8 2014, 03:05 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 8 2014, 03:31 PM) *
The http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/india-pakistan-flooding-claims/33677523 will help reconfigure the current mid-latitude long-term longwave pattern in the NH.


please specify to us weather weenie rookies. Thanks.

Posted by: The Snowman Sep 8 2014, 04:26 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 8 2014, 09:57 AM) *
The two raob stations that are often used in data analysis for the BSR are SHEMYA ISLAND AFB AK US and SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL AP MO US. A quick correlation run of the two for the time period I referenced yielded a 0.50072 correlation with a 22 day BSR.

[attachment=238963:bsr1.png]

Relating maps is fun too. BSR http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep/charts, CONUS http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/.

For what it is worth. Today's dominant recurring Rossby components are 17-20 and 33-35 days. 18, 34, 20, 19 days being the top 4. The 3rd harmonic (some like to call it the LRC) would be 54-60 days based on the frequency of 18-20 days.

I'd bet money you could make a private forecasting company with all the stuff you've got there. Fantastic work as always.

Posted by: MaineJay Sep 9 2014, 05:51 AM

I'm hoping to follow this thread much more carefully and learn more about what you are doing. It's wicked interesting, and just wanted to extend a thanks for all your efforts.

Guitar strings work in a similar way, however the forcing is not at the end, but along the string. It made me think, thicker and/or looser strings vibrate at lower frequencies and higher amplitude, and thinner/tighter ones at higher frequencies/ low amp, does the jet stream exhibit similar tendencies? I.e. a slow, broad jets more sinuous than a tight, fast regime?

Sorry if this is all just nonsense. Keep up the good work!


Posted by: hbgweather Sep 9 2014, 09:45 AM

so from what I'm understanding is this is the whole cause to the change in the LRC come October. Going from one pattern to the next needs that kick of new energy to change up the wave lengths.?

Posted by: hbgweather Sep 9 2014, 01:19 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 9 2014, 01:51 PM) *
It is one idea. Still seeking the ultimate truth. wink.gif

As for the LRC, it is difficult to say what Lezak thinks causes his cycle change. In all the years I have been around it I don't think he has ever stated a cause for the effect. Don't confuse the LRC with what we are really studying here. This goes beyond the magic.



Fully understand not confusing the LRC with a new cycle. Just to me, since I know basically nothing about these events, it seemed to coincide with one another since the new cycle for the year begins around October and the monsoon is before these changes. The monsoon is late this year correct? Would that mean the new cycle will begin late? It appears the monsoon also packs quite a punch. I know its hard to explain things to people who enjoy learning weather as a hobby rather than following its exact science. I have more questions than answers and suck at math. Therefor I'm limited in my basic knowledge of weather. I'm going to try and follow this time around with the cycles.

Posted by: Undertakerson Sep 9 2014, 04:00 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 9 2014, 04:00 PM) *
This isn't a "new cycle", I believe we are just calling it what it really is and backing our findings with science and data. The ideas have been around for quite sometime and are used daily. If anything is different than what is already out there, it could be our application to long term forecasting. I will give credit where credit is due, in my mind the LRC exists as a 3rd or 4th harmonic of the overall wave. And now that I am thinking about it, I believe GL does explain how his cycle forms. Don't quote me on this...

[attachment=239003:lrc003.png]

From the origin post

QUOTE
With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season


I too took that to mean that the pattern re-establishes itself (but does it do so, exactly) and is, therefore, new. In much the same way a flowing river is always "new" - never static or entirely predictable.

I guess I only mean to ask for clarification. I find this thread deeply interesting and wish to follow along better.


Posted by: jdrenken Sep 11 2014, 10:26 AM

My latest...

QUOTE
Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1153 bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

We have a strong system moving into Manchuria on September 14th which pumps up a ridge in the few days prior. This translates to the 21st of September for Central Missouri. Immediately following is a trough that last from September 15th through the 18th with zonal flow between the 18th and 20th of September. So…look for Central Missouri to experience below normal temperatures from the 22nd into the 25th with a moderating trend. Then, we have yet another “Manchurian candidate” on the 24th that pumps up an even stronger ridge until the 26th. This means the beginning of October will be well above normal.

We are seeing a common theme from the Bering Sea in a ‘ridge west-trough east’ configuration during the period and continuing until the 18th of September. Central Missouri will once again be in the battle zone as the correlation will have us on the back side of the trough and the systems come down the pipe. Ridging will take place between the 18th and 23rd of September until another impressive trough takes over the Bering Sea. This series will mean we experience warming between the 9th and 14th.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Sep 12 2014, 10:13 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 12 2014, 08:39 AM) *
Constructive criticism. I think you need to create some sort of visualization for your forecasts. It is difficult to interpret the words as you "see" it. Show maps of what you see in the BSR/TR regions and then maps of temp/pcpn departures in the COMO region. Or something. Charts are cool too.

this would be pretty cool....time allowing. Wouldnt even have to be anything more than a paint doc. Look at Brett A ECM monthly interprutation maps laugh.gif

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 13 2014, 08:34 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 13 2014, 08:57 AM) *
I am certain I just overheard TWC mention the storm in GOA and then say it translates to a trough in the East.


In the short term...yes as it forces a ridge over the Rockies and West Coast.

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 13 2014, 08:38 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 8 2014, 09:08 PM) *
If you hold end A of the above string and try to give it a continuous up-and-down motion, with a little adjustment of the pace of oscillations, you can make at least the following waveforms:



Each wave travels from A to B and gets reflected at B. When each reflected wave reaches point A, it gets reflected again and the process repeats. Of course the hand motion keeps putting energy into the system by constantly generating waves that are in phase with the returned waves creating the above waveforms. Such waves are called "standing waves."

http://www.pstcc.edu/departments/natural_behavioral_sciences/Web%20Physics/Chapter016.htm

Consider the Rossby wave train a standing wave. Consider the northward propagation of the Indian Summer Monsoon the source of energy that jolts the motion, or the "hand motion", mentioned above, putting "new energy" into the system. Up until last week the ISM had been weak. Last week it exploded.


Saw this and immediately thought of the obvious.

Youtube bowling ball https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhMiuzyU1ag.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 13 2014, 09:07 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 13 2014, 09:38 PM) *
Saw this and immediately thought of the obvious.

Youtube bowling ball https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhMiuzyU1ag.

Those grade school kids got a cooler Physics demonstration than I'll probably ever get in college dry.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 13 2014, 09:28 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 13 2014, 08:38 PM) *
Saw this and immediately thought of the obvious.

Youtube bowling ball https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YhMiuzyU1ag.


Phase. The position of a point in time (instant) on a waveform cycle. A complete cycle is defined as the interval required for the waveform to reattain its arbitrary initial value.

Time in space. Space in time. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 16 2014, 09:27 AM

LOL - https://twitter.com/splillo/status/511851155757211648/photo/1 Can we get something to help that out?

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 16 2014, 09:48 AM

A ridge will be present around October 9th (BSR ~20 days). Timing always a factor when dealing with http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ a few days out. Recurring Rossby 54-60 days (August 13th map). Some "fine tuning" taking place. The long-term waves will lose correlation strength to the short-term waves as Autumn approaches.




Too much summer?


Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Sep 16 2014, 11:11 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 16 2014, 09:48 AM) *
A ridge will be present around October 9th (BSR ~20 days). Timing always a factor when dealing with http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ a few days out. Recurring Rossby 54-60 days (August 13th map). Some "fine tuning" taking place. The long-term waves will lose correlation strength to the short-term waves as Autumn approaches.

[:gfs_z500..._wpac_]

Too much summer?

[attachment=.]

love the down to the point posts from you guys, ALONG with the met. explainations

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 16 2014, 11:21 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 16 2014, 11:11 AM) *
ALONG with the met. explainations


Haha. You'll get nothing of the like from me.

Hot/Cold, Wet/Dry, Trough/Ridge is the extent of my vocabulary. smile.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Sep 17 2014, 10:15 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 16 2014, 11:21 AM) *
Haha. You'll get nothing of the like from me.

Hot/Cold, Wet/Dry, Trough/Ridge is the extent of my vocabulary. smile.gif

haha I was implying I saw both in that post but then again we could have different meanings of Met vocab

Posted by: JDClapper Sep 17 2014, 06:40 PM

Why not. smile.gif I updated my "LRC" file through 9/16/14. The chart uses daily average temp as compared to the 30 year average for Williamsport, PA. This goes back nearly a year and is charted out on a 57 day cycle.

A couple fairly strong repeats I can see with the naked eye (through 6 full cycles).

Circle 1 is a noticeable spike in temps quickly followed by a drop then followed by another quick warm-up.
Circle 2 also shows a spike in temps quickly followed by a drop in temps.

Circle 1 this time around is ~10/8 for a rise in temps and a drop around ~10/11 and rise ~10/13.
Circle 2 this time around is ~10/23 for a rise in temps and a drop or evening out shortly after.

*shrugs* This will probably get disrupted.. but was curious to see how the summer panned out in relation to the fall/winter/spring cycle anyways.


Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 17 2014, 07:58 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 17 2014, 03:48 PM) *
And does the intensity of the ISM have anything to do with the jet stream's amplification? In other words, you use the adjective 'explosion'... does a sudden increase imply an unusually meridional jet stream, such as what we saw in 2013-2014? Or inversely, what we saw in 2011-2012?


I am looking at the ISM to create a new kink in the wave. I believe I explained it a bit more in detail a couple posts up about standing waves. Remember the law of http://bit.ly/x8qsym too. Fun to think about it in http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=672147. As far as amplitude and/or vorticity of the Rossby wave train, what I think you are describing, I am not sure. Can't rule out the possibility!

EDIT:


Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 17 2014, 08:10 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 17 2014, 08:58 PM) *
I am looking at the ISM to create a new kink in the wave. I believe I explained it a bit more in detail a couple posts up about standing waves. Remember the law of http://bit.ly/x8qsym too. Fun to think about it in http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=672147. As far as amplitude and/or vorticity of the Rossby wave train, what I think you are describing, I am not sure. Can't rule out the possibility!

Thanks! Although I can hardly understand much of what you guys talk about here (I understand your answer to me though), I'll be watching with interest

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 17 2014, 08:31 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 17 2014, 08:10 PM) *
Thanks! Although I can hardly understand much of what you guys talk about here (I understand your answer to me though), I'll be watching with interest


Cool. I wanted to add an image to the post. I forgot. I will do that now.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 17 2014, 09:27 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Sep 17 2014, 06:40 PM) *
Why not. smile.gif I updated my "LRC" file through 9/16/14. The chart uses daily average temp as compared to the 30 year average for Williamsport, PA. This goes back nearly a year and is charted out on a 57 day cycle.

A couple fairly strong repeats I can see with the naked eye (through 6 full cycles).

Circle 1 is a noticeable spike in temps quickly followed by a drop then followed by another quick warm-up.
Circle 2 also shows a spike in temps quickly followed by a drop in temps.

Circle 1 this time around is ~10/8 for a rise in temps and a drop around ~10/11 and rise ~10/13.
Circle 2 this time around is ~10/23 for a rise in temps and a drop or evening out shortly after.

*shrugs* This will probably get disrupted.. but was curious to see how the summer panned out in relation to the fall/winter/spring cycle anyways.



Great work on sticking with numbers. I applaud you.

At this moment it is difficult for me to imagine any one harmonic being dominant for an entire year. A 57 day cycle is likely a 3rd, 4th, or 5th harmonic depending on the dominant component. I think the chaotic nature of your chart is evidence of that. The two strong repeats are as well. Below is a chart of the short, mid, long term component and a 57 day cycle for the past year showing daily correlation. I think there is a chart showing some of the dominant harmonics during the past year buried in this thread...



But, classic LRC fare. smile.gif


Posted by: MaineJay Sep 18 2014, 05:25 AM

I though of you guys when I read this.
Extended forecast discussion

QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1253 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

VALID 12Z SUN SEP 21 2014 - 12Z THU SEP 25 2014


THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS
THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE VIA A POWERFUL JET
PUNCHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE BLOCKINESS OVER THE
NATION EARLY IN THE FORECAST--AS WELL AS THE TENACIOUS POLAR
STREAM ASTRIDE THE CANADIAN BORDER--SHOULD BE WIPED AWAY WITHIN A
WEEK. AS WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE MARKED BY IMPORTANT DIVERGENCE--PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHENCE THE IMPETUS FOR THE SHUFFLING
EMERGES. FORTUNATELY, THE MOST RECENT ECENS AND NAEFS MEANS ARE
CORRELATED WELL ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A STABLE SYNOPTIC BASE FROM
WHICH TO BUILD THE CURRENT FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS STILL A THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE FRESH INFLUX OF ENERGY INTO THE
NORTHWEST SHOULD THWART ANY PROTRACTED LINGERING OF THE VORTICITY
AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. THE MOST DRAMATIC SENSIBLE
WEATHER SHIFT WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH THE CASCADES, COASTAL
RANGES, AND IMMEDIATE PACIFIC COAST BEARING THE BRUNT.



CISCO

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 18 2014, 07:28 AM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 18 2014, 05:25 AM) *
I though of you guys when I read this.
Extended forecast discussion
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd


Dominant short-term? Can't even get a full top-10 lately. I am invested into the model evolution for this time period as I have portrayed a confidence level in the BSR and ISO/RR. We shall see what transpires. smile.gif






Posted by: jdrenken Sep 19 2014, 02:56 AM

Great job gang! Keep up the good work!!

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 19 2014, 03:06 AM

Latest

QUOTE
Hello everyone,

This is Joe Renken of http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1163 bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

In the West Pacific, we have Tropical Storm Fung-wong approaching the island of Luzon as it curves Northerly barely missing Taiwan due to being latched into a trough over East Asia. Yíall know that means Central Missouri will experience a cooler period around the 26th before another quick ridge develops as evident by the cyclone not making another curve to the Northeast until the 23rd. Then another trough picks it up. This will translate to Central Missouri experiencing a slight warm up around the 27th into the 29th before another cooler period hits us for October. My thoughts are still that it will be roughly October 2nd when that happens. Then zonal flow follows for a moderation of temperatures.

The trough that we talked about last week is holding strong and wonít let go until the 23rd of September for the Bering Sea Rule. We talked in the typhoon rule section how a system is moving through Japan approximately September 25th. This same system will pump up a ridge ahead of it in the Bering Sea around the 26th and 27th continuing into the beginning of October. This will reflect over Central Missouri by cooler than normal temperatures from the later part of the second week in October into the third week when the ridging takes over. Some models are estimating a 570dm height field in the Southwest Bering Sea, which is roughly 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

Donít forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as itís being noticed on the blogsphere.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 19 2014, 09:14 PM

It's not a pattern flip. It's a dominant harmonic. Try the 3rd. I am sure it is not a coincidence that 12-15 days have been the most recognized since Aug-1.



Start with 8/12 connect to 9/22, ish. If you like maps this should prove to be a fun comparison.

Just an idea.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 19 2014, 09:42 PM

While it isn't fully initialized yet, it's fun to see what may be transpiring.






A chilly start to the new year?





Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Sep 20 2014, 08:10 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 19 2014, 09:42 PM) *
While it isn't fully initialized yet, it's fun to see what may be transpiring.






A chilly start to the new year?



Second week of November huh.....perfect timing for my deer hunting vacation and rut time. Granted that's mn

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 20 2014, 10:59 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 20 2014, 08:10 AM) *
Second week of November huh.....perfect timing for my deer hunting vacation and rut time. Granted that's mn


I am using one climate zone to work out the bugs. The rest of the conus will be ready the 2nd or 3rd of October. I am looking forward to dropping it and letting it do its thing. Hopefully it doesnt *bleep* the bed.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 21 2014, 08:11 AM

Seems like the 06Z GFS is picking up on the BSR connection from 9/12 ish for 10/2 ish. It's getting there. Give it some more time. Also, the 12-15 day short-term ISO/RR dominance pin points the upcoming patterns on harmonics that do not fall on the "LRC harmonic" (has anyone LRC related mentioned what it could be yet? 54-60 is my guess). One will need to utilize the Nth harmonic before and after it to find the best accuracy.




Just an idea.

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 21 2014, 08:48 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 21 2014, 08:11 AM) *
Seems like the 06Z GFS is picking up on the BSR connection from 9/12 ish for 10/2 ish. It's getting there. Give it some more time. Also, the 12-15 day short-term ISO/RR dominance pin points the upcoming patterns on harmonics that do not fall on the "LRC harmonic" (has anyone LRC related mentioned what it could be yet? 54-60 is my guess). One will need to utilize the Nth harmonic before and after it to find the best accuracy.




Just an idea.



Nice! Once again I am sitting back and letting it evolve while watching people tweet or post facebook status regarding a warm start to October.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 21 2014, 08:54 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 21 2014, 08:48 AM) *
Nice! Once again I am sitting back and letting it evolve while watching people tweet or post facebook status regarding a warm start to October.


That is one way to do it. smile.gif

I am attempting to document the always evolving standing wave frequency utilizing the BSR time space. It is buried in this thread. Only if I had the extra time and brain capacity to document it properly. For now this thread will do. LOL

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 21 2014, 08:59 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 21 2014, 08:54 AM) *
That is one way to do it. smile.gif

I am attempting to document the always evolving standing wave frequency utilizing the BSR time space. It is buried in this thread. Only if I had the extra time and brain capacity to document it properly. For now this thread will do. LOL


Preach it brother! Don't get me started on the "never-ending" juggle of time management. wink.gif laugh.gif

Posted by: blizzardOf96 Sep 21 2014, 10:38 AM

The 0z Euro is ending the warm period with a bang in the 15-20 day(~Oct 7-9th) as soon to be Kammuri recurves E of Japan with strong trough amplification on the model. GFS has a similar idea:


GEFS has this as well:

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 21 2014, 03:25 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 21 2014, 02:59 PM) *
It's so weird to see this much red for the east half of the US.

6-10 day


8-14 day


Not sure it lasts that far into October, but utilizing the cyclic nature of the atmosphere, the 3rd harmonic shows similar tendencies in same time frame - ish. I did a quick compare of 9/24 connecting to 8/22.



Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 21 2014, 04:21 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 21 2014, 04:25 PM) *
Not sure it lasts that far into October, but utilizing the cyclic nature of the atmosphere, the 3rd harmonic shows similar tendencies in same time frame - ish. I did a quick compare of 9/24 connecting to 8/22.



Forgive my ignorance to the subject, and specifically harmonics... but is there an analog date for the upcoming warm spell? I don't recall a period this past year where the west is forecast to be wetter than the east. So I have a feeling the answer lies within this .gif... am I right?

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 9 2014, 06:51 AM) *
I'm hoping to follow this thread much more carefully and learn more about what you are doing. It's wicked interesting, and just wanted to extend a thanks for all your efforts.

Guitar strings work in a similar way, however the forcing is not at the end, but along the string. It made me think, thicker and/or looser strings vibrate at lower frequencies and higher amplitude, and thinner/tighter ones at higher frequencies/ low amp, does the jet stream exhibit similar tendencies? I.e. a slow, broad jets more sinuous than a tight, fast regime?

Sorry if this is all just nonsense. Keep up the good work!


Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 21 2014, 08:41 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 21 2014, 04:21 PM) *
Forgive my ignorance to the subject, and specifically harmonics... but is there an analog date for the upcoming warm spell? I don't recall a period this past year where the west is forecast to be wetter than the east. So I have a feeling the answer lies within this .gif... am I right?


If I put the chart in motion it's like watching an oscilloscope. I am certain there is an example buried in this thread somewhere. ~34 days is working back into the top-10, into dominance (heat-map type table I posted earlier today). ~34 days from when the trough settles into the west. I believe I compared 9/24 to 8/22 and moved ahead 10 ish days for your comparison. (Nth harmonic before)




Also, see 18Z GFS 276. (Nth harmonic after) ~68 days

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907075

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 21 2014, 08:53 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 21 2014, 09:41 PM) *
If I put the chart in motion it's like watching an oscilloscope. I am certain there is an example buried in this thread somewhere. ~34 days is working back into the top-10, into dominance (heat-map type table I posted earlier today). ~34 days from when the trough settles into the west. I believe I compared 9/24 to 8/22 and moved ahead 10 ish days for your comparison. (Nth harmonic before)




Also, see 18Z GFS 276. (Nth harmonic after) ~68 days

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907075

8/20 is a decent analog


There are noticeable differences, but it's alright... it's not supposed to be perfect anyway.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 22 2014, 06:31 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 21 2014, 08:53 PM) *
8/20 is a decent analog
There are noticeable differences, but it's alright... it's not supposed to be perfect anyway.


I didn't use 8/20 in my comparison. Perhaps I should have.

I am in the mode that a solid technique is to seek the dominant harmonic and project from that analog. Low 30 days seem strong yet, but upper 60 days are working back into the mix. Evident to me that the standing wave continues to oscillate. It is not a static cycle. If it were, and things were perfect, would this be as entertaining?



Glad to see the GFS long range catching onto the connection of the ISO/RR and BSR. It will be fun to watch the flow of this part of the wave. Some will say it's a brand new pattern in a brand new cycle.



Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 22 2014, 10:11 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 22 2014, 07:31 AM) *
I didn't use 8/20 in my comparison. Perhaps I should have.

I am in the mode that a solid technique is to seek the dominant harmonic and project from that analog. Low 30 days seem strong yet, but upper 60 days are working back into the mix. Evident to me that the standing wave continues to oscillate. It is not a static cycle. If it were, and things were perfect, would this be as entertaining?



Glad to see the GFS long range catching onto the connection of the ISO/RR and BSR. It will be fun to watch the flow of this part of the wave. Some will say it's a brand new pattern in a brand new cycle.

Are you referring to the trough at ~hour 228 on the 06z GFS?

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 22 2014, 12:41 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 22 2014, 10:11 AM) *
Are you referring to the trough at ~hour 228 on the 06z GFS?


I have an image in my head of how it might look, resembling 7/26 and several days afterwards. It will be interesting to see how it is modeled in the coming days. I am connecting 7/26 to 10/2 based on the 5th harmonic of the 13-14 day dominant short-term, ~68 days.

Just an idea.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 23 2014, 10:29 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 22 2014, 12:41 PM) *
I have an image in my head of how it might look, resembling 7/26 and several days afterwards. It will be interesting to see how it is modeled in the coming days. I am connecting 7/26 to 10/2 based on the 5th harmonic of the 13-14 day dominant short-term, ~68 days.

Just an idea.


13-14, 68-69, and 32 days. I see 32 days as the current pattern.



Then as the wave evolves another harmonic takes dominance. 68-69 days. Neither of these harmonics are the LRC harmonic, which some say is upper 50s this year, (I agree with 54-60). Currently it just isn't correlating. 50-60 day correls below as of this AM.

-0.137090274 (50)
-0.287022532
-0.308953095
-0.234573699
-0.16274955
-0.079058749
-0.138721448
-0.234906878
-0.208052126
-0.08522911
-0.045593103 (60)

Using 32 days, the harmonic runs it's course using Aug 22 through Sep 1 ish. Then the trough digs in and the dominance is 68-69 days. Standing wave harmonics. We shall see. smile.gif

EDIT: Just an idea.

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 24 2014, 11:03 AM

Well lookie http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2014/09/23/weather-forecasts-obama-climate-change/16112113/...


Don't have to think twice about what I am going to be advocating at the cpc st. louis http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outreach/CDPW39.shtml!

Posted by: jdrenken Sep 25 2014, 08:44 AM

Latest...

QUOTE
Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1176 bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will recurve just short of Iwo Jima by the 28th and that gives Central Missouri an extra cold boost roughly around the 5th of October. Zonal flow follows on the 2nd of October and continues until the 5th when another strong trough pushes through matching my timeline of the 9th into the 14th being cooler than normal. I am watching the potential of an upper level low setting up over Sakhalin Island which will provide us with an extended period of below normal temperatures. I believe itís sensing the pattern, just placing it a week early as it doesnít match the Bering Sea Rule showing a ridge for the middle of October.

The Bering Sea is continuing the Omega style blocking as upper level lows are Southwest of Valdez, Alaska and Southeast of the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula. This forces ridging between them in the Bering Sea. Both systems are progressive in nature, so the block doesnít stay for more than 3 days. That being said, we have a strong upper level low in the Sea of Okhotsk that will throw multiple systems into the Bering Sea and keep the trough pattern continuing until the 7th. This translates to Central Missouri being below normal in temperatures for the last two weeks of October.

Donít forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as itís being noticed on the blogsphere.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 26 2014, 07:36 AM

This happened 20+ days ago. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/bTPW/index.html



Could this be the result in the recurring pattern?



Kinks in the long-term longwave...

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Sep 26 2014, 08:19 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 26 2014, 07:36 AM) *
This happened 20+ days ago. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/bTPW/index.html



Kinks in the long-term longwave...

Im definitely behind the game this year......

could you explain what this chart shows with the correlating reds/blues....I have the normal assumption but more so the scales and numbers

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 26 2014, 11:08 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 26 2014, 08:19 AM) *
Im definitely behind the game this year......

could you explain what this chart shows with the correlating reds/blues....I have the normal assumption but more so the scales and numbers


10-90 day correlation. Showing top 10 only. Just another way to visualize the recurring patterns and dominant frequency of the standing wave. Only two durations make the cut right now and are without sequence.

Posted by: JDClapper Sep 26 2014, 02:20 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 26 2014, 12:08 PM) *
10-90 day correlation. Showing top 10 only. Just another way to visualize the recurring patterns and dominant frequency of the standing wave. Only two durations make the cut right now and are without sequence.


I think I'm getting it... if it falls in the 1 slot, that is the most dominant frequency for that date (e.g., 9/12 was 10 days, but 9/26 is 33).. and one could surmise that on 9/22, if we went back 13 or 14 days (top 2) that would lead us to the best pattern comparison? And 68 or 69 days ago would also be a pretty close match?

Swing and miss?

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 26 2014, 03:36 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Sep 26 2014, 02:20 PM) *
I think I'm getting it... if it falls in the 1 slot, that is the most dominant frequency for that date (e.g., 9/12 was 10 days, but 9/26 is 33).. and one could surmise that on 9/22, if we went back 13 or 14 days (top 2) that would lead us to the best pattern comparison? And 68 or 69 days ago would also be a pretty close match?

Swing and miss?


You definitely have the gist of it.

For example. There was an abundance of top ranked 12-15 day duration for the better part of August. Using standing wave harmonics we could then predict other durations using simple math. Not coincidentally, I see a lot of 58-60 and 74-77 in the same time frame. If they make the top 10 I feel they are significant in determining the dominant frequency.




You can see that the short-term is quite a bit more volatile than the long-term.

EDIT: Granted all this analysis data is for the climate region in the upper midwest, which http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/image/_regions.jpg. Each region will have their own analysis charts, tables, etc along with the entire CONUS. That junk should be in the Internet by mid Oct. I think I am more excited about the analysis stuff than the forecasts. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 27 2014, 09:05 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM) *
Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?

[attachment=238938:IMG_2014...7_194842.jpg]


The GFS is catching on.



Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 27 2014, 09:28 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 10 2014, 01:59 PM) *
Have you peeped the LR in any of the models? That was a joke.

See last week of September.

ISO>BSR>TR (Obviously we'll have to wait on the Typhoon Rule to verify, but no matter)

The recurring Rossby dominant harmonic is 33-35 and 18-20 days today. With 34 and 19 days being the top dogs in the sequence. Give a day or two for response of the 2nd harmonic, current 3rd harmonic is around 54-60 days. In regard to the RR ISO see the last week of July for the recurring pattern, in case of the BSR see Bering Sea now through hour 84.

Just one example out of many to come. smile.gif

EDIT: I should add, I am looking at the http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/.


Seems the 33-35 day harmonic has maintained itself, connecting 8/22 to now. As for the short-term 18-20, that rolled back to the more dominant 12-15 since 8/1. This fine tunes the long-term into a 5th harmonic around ~68 days connecting Oct 2 to Jul 26 as the 33-35 day and ~68 day meld together as Sept ends and Oct begins.

Also, the image below is http://weather.koamtv.com/2014/09/25/thursday-mid-morning-blog-another-nice-day-for-us-today-update-on-the-heady-pattern/.




Posted by: WeatherMonger Sep 27 2014, 11:06 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 27 2014, 09:28 AM) *
Seems the 33-35 day harmonic has maintained itself, connecting 8/22 to now. As for the short-term 18-20, that rolled back to the more dominant 12-15 since 8/1. This fine tunes the long-term into a 5th harmonic around ~68 days connecting Oct 2 to Jul 26 as the 33-35 day and ~68 day meld together as Sept ends and Oct begins.

Also, the image below is http://weather.koamtv.com/2014/09/25/thursday-mid-morning-blog-another-nice-day-for-us-today-update-on-the-heady-pattern/.



So he and Lezak are the only two on earth capable of an accurate long range forecast laugh.gif

I sense a little bitterness in that comment, wonder where he could be directing that to? rolleyes.gif blink.gif laugh.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 27 2014, 01:18 PM

QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Sep 27 2014, 11:06 AM) *
So he and Lezak are the only two on earth capable of an accurate long range forecast laugh.gif

I sense a little bitterness in that comment, wonder where he could be directing that to? rolleyes.gif blink.gif laugh.gif


I don't follow DH's blog enough to sense feelings from his words. It's probably my ego.

Admittedly I have not done statistical work to link the recurring patterns with ENSO. For all we know, the Heady Pattern could be greater than Lezak's Recurring Cycle and DH could be light years ahead of GL.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 28 2014, 09:44 AM

https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/516237225344786434


Posted by: JDClapper Sep 28 2014, 03:57 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Sep 17 2014, 07:40 PM) *
Why not. smile.gif I updated my "LRC" file through 9/16/14. The chart uses daily average temp as compared to the 30 year average for Williamsport, PA. This goes back nearly a year and is charted out on a 57 day cycle.

A couple fairly strong repeats I can see with the naked eye (through 6 full cycles).

Circle 1 is a noticeable spike in temps quickly followed by a drop then followed by another quick warm-up.
Circle 2 also shows a spike in temps quickly followed by a drop in temps.

Circle 1 this time around is ~10/8 for a rise in temps and a drop around ~10/11 and rise ~10/13.
Circle 2 this time around is ~10/23 for a rise in temps and a drop or evening out shortly after.

*shrugs* This will probably get disrupted.. but was curious to see how the summer panned out in relation to the fall/winter/spring cycle anyways.



Just a quick follow-up on this for fun.

Rise in temps around 8th, drop around the 11th, another rise around the 13th. What's a couple days between friends?

While this goes back a year, it's a funny "coincidence" that Josh's recent charts show the long term waves being the best correlations, just as this strong cycle is coming around. Still time to bust, but it's neat to see this for now.



Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 28 2014, 04:36 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Sep 28 2014, 03:57 PM) *
Just a quick follow-up on this for fun.

Rise in temps around 8th, drop around the 11th, another rise around the 13th. What's a couple days between friends?

While this goes back a year, it's a funny "coincidence" that Josh's recent charts show the long term waves being the best correlations, just as this strong cycle is coming around. Still time to bust, but it's neat to see this for now.




All the LRC guys still have an upper 50s duration. So you got that going for you. It is so ridiculous of a notion, to me, that there can only be one cycle length. It is quite obvious, when analyzing an array of data using one cycle length, the amplitude and frequency rarely match (once every "cycle" for a couple/few weeks). But whatever.

What I enjoy about the other guys, especially JN and GL, they are expressing their duration numbers months before what they have in the past. It took GL until December last year to be confident in a ~57 day. Funny, that was the time DH came in here boasting a 51. 51 had a much better showing than 57 last year.

It is likely I am doing this all wrong.

Posted by: JDClapper Sep 28 2014, 05:04 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 28 2014, 05:36 PM) *
All the LRC guys still have an upper 50s duration. So you got that going for you. It is so ridiculous of a notion, to me, that there can only be one cycle length. It is quite obvious, when analyzing an array of data using one cycle length, the amplitude and frequency rarely match (once every "cycle" for a couple/few weeks). But whatever.

What I enjoy about the other guys, especially JN and GL, they are expressing their duration numbers months before what they have in the past. It took GL until December last year to be confident in a ~57 day. Funny, that was the time DH came in here boasting a 51. 51 had a much better showing than 57 last year.

It is likely I am doing this all wrong.


Even if you are.. all the research, charts and discussion you bring is sure to set off some lightbulbs throughout the weather community and keep things progressing.

In my opinion. wink.gif Keep doing what you do.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 28 2014, 07:18 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Sep 28 2014, 05:04 PM) *
Even if you are.. all the research, charts and discussion you bring is sure to set off some lightbulbs throughout the weather community and keep things progressing.

In my opinion. wink.gif Keep doing what you do.


I appreciate the feedback. I also appreciate that you keep showing us your results. And, I agree. I am not afraid of being wrong or incorrect. Always learning.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 29 2014, 08:26 AM

Top ISO/RR correls today 67-68, 32 days.

BSR Oct 1, connects to ~Oct 21 in CONUS.




ISO/RR ~32 days from Oct 21


ISO/RR ~68 days from Oct 21


Easy to guess, another trough in the West around Oct 21?



Posted by: jdrenken Sep 29 2014, 09:38 AM

What does sonar have to do with "sorcery"? wink.gif

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1194

Look familiar?

 

Posted by: Alwaysready126 Sep 29 2014, 10:13 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 29 2014, 09:26 AM) *
Top ISO/RR correls today 67-68, 32 days.

BSR Oct 1, connects to ~Oct 21 in CONUS.




ISO/RR ~32 days from Oct 21


ISO/RR ~68 days from Oct 21


Easy to guess, another trough in the West around Oct 21?


To my untrained eye, that looks like a nice pattern in the Mid Atlantic / Northeast come late December/ early January if you are a fan of snow. Is that an accurate assessment?

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 29 2014, 01:30 PM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 29 2014, 05:41 AM) *
As I am not qualified to make weather prediction, the only prognostication I would hazard, folks are gonna complain about how bad the models are, I know I have been guilty. So, I thought I would drag out a soap box and give my 2 shekels about numerical weather prediction (nwp) and modeling.

I'll preface and recommend watching the documentary Chaos (2009) I have only seen it available through Amazon, oh and it looks like it was made in 1989 tongue.gif .

One thing I have learned, looking at any individual model run, even an ensemble, is similar to hearing just a phrase or a sentence of a conversation, and consequently trying to derive the whole story from just those few words. Once in a while we can, usually it's a fools errand. We need context. This is why I hope to learn much more from JD and Josh in the ISO/BSR/TR thread.

I'm certainly not much of a mathematician, but I do like math.

In the early 1960s, Edward Lorenz, using his very simple weather model realized that tiny differences in initial conditions created very different outcomes. More importantly, he discovered that in the chaos of his simple weather model, there were certain states where the model appeared gravitate towards and attempt to become stable. However, once started, the model would never take the same path twice. These semi-stable states are called strange attractors. Lorenz used 3 variables in his model resulting in a 3 dimensional graph that looked like a butterfly wink.gif , it's appropriately named the "Lorenz Attractor"

[attachment=239564:A_Trajec...ttractor.gif]

Now we know that the atmosphere has more that 3 variables. I believe the model's only forcing was bottom warmth to recreate convention, Thus, there must many factors (sun spots, tropical systems, seasonal shifts, are perhaps some?), that can "force" the atmosphere into a different strange attractor. I imagine things like the PDO and ENSO are a couple of these semi-stable states that give a general idea on a pattern, but the Lorenz Attractor says that no two atmospheric states will ever be the same, even two very similar states can have drastically different outcomes.
For those interested in fractals, they will likely recognize the Mandelbrot set. This gorgeous, mathematical structure results from a very simply equation, but creates a pattern that seems to repeat itself, but through a form of feedback, the original image evolves constantly, never quite regaining original form, as one keeps zooming in.

[attachment=239565:Screensh..._43_39_1.png]

Starting in the upper left corner and moving clockwise, a likeness of the original image can be seen as it's magnified.
(Hope it makes sense)

[attachment=239566:IMG_2014092135372.jpg]

Sorry for my rambling, just trying to prepare for the winter season!
Sometimes there is order in chaos, sometimes it's just chaos. Let's not bash the models, it's kinda like shooting the messenger.


I moved this over here for me to come back to at some point. smile.gif

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 29 2014, 03:50 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 29 2014, 09:26 AM) *
Top ISO/RR correls today 67-68, 32 days.

BSR Oct 1, connects to ~Oct 21 in CONUS.




ISO/RR ~32 days from Oct 21


ISO/RR ~68 days from Oct 21


Easy to guess, another trough in the West around Oct 21?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml, it's safe to assume that there'll be an eastern ridge for at least a week after the 21st, right?

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 29 2014, 04:12 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 16 2014, 09:48 AM) *
A ridge will be present around October 9th (BSR ~20 days). Timing always a factor when dealing with http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ a few days out. Recurring Rossby 54-60 days (August 13th map).




GFS has the ridge in it's scope! 12Z +240 wink.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 29 2014, 04:16 PM

QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Sep 29 2014, 10:13 AM) *
To my untrained eye, that looks like a nice pattern in the Mid Atlantic / Northeast come late December/ early January if you are a fan of snow. Is that an accurate assessment?


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 29 2014, 03:50 PM) *
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/alaska/akmedr.shtml, it's safe to assume that there'll be an eastern ridge for at least a week after the 21st, right?


Not sure. You'll have to query the Sorcerer. smile.gif

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 29 2014, 09:38 AM) *
What does sonar have to do with "sorcery"? wink.gif


Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 29 2014, 05:04 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 29 2014, 05:16 PM) *
Not sure. You'll have to query the Sorcerer. smile.gif

Haha, alright. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=arctic&cycle=20140929%2012%20UTC&param=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model has this ridge sticking around until the 4th, becoming temporarily weakened/displaced for a day or so, but then comes back strong until it goes low-res (hour 240). http://i.imgur.com/waJWoEv.gif I'd love for this to happen, but it sounds too good to be true.

By the way... are we in the "new pattern" yet, or are we still waiting?

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 30 2014, 07:32 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 29 2014, 05:04 PM) *
Haha, alright. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=arctic&cycle=20140929%2012%20UTC&param=500_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model has this ridge sticking around until the 4th, becoming temporarily weakened/displaced for a day or so, but then comes back strong until it goes low-res (hour 240). http://i.imgur.com/waJWoEv.gif I'd love for this to happen, but it sounds too good to be true.

By the way... are we in the "new pattern" yet, or are we still waiting?


Not sure about the LRC or HP pattern setup. You will have to ask Lezak and Heady. As for the dominant recurring Rossby though, it is moving. 66-68, 31-32, & 29 this morning.

Hint. Look back 1 year. Remember this type of energy from 10/5/13 ish? Flow setup is different. Try the same thing for other features in September and August.

EDIT: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/photos/20131002-06_usradar.gif (radar loop)

--- update for myself on progress ---

Today is the final day for code review. Tomorrow I cookie cut the climate regions. Forecasts should be live on October 2nd. Analysis content should be live November 2nd. Baring setbacks of course. Those 010101011000 can be tricky. wink.gif

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 30 2014, 10:35 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 30 2014, 08:32 AM) *
Not sure about the LRC or HP pattern setup. You will have to ask Lezak and Heady. As for the dominant recurring Rossby though, it is moving. 66-68, 31-32, & 29 this morning.

Hint. Look back 1 year. Remember this type of energy from 10/5/13 ish? Flow setup is different. Try the same thing for other features in September and August.

EDIT: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/photos/20131002-06_usradar.gif (radar loop)

--- update for myself on progress ---

Today is the final day for code review. Tomorrow I cookie cut the climate regions. Forecasts should be live on October 2nd. Analysis content should be live November 2nd. Baring setbacks of course. Those 010101011000 can be tricky. wink.gif

laugh.gif

I don't understand how the east US pattern changed so dramatically this past month. It's like someone flipped a switch. For example, In most of Ohio, we went from a very wet year to the 4th driest September on record; ranging from a total of 0.6" to a whopping 0.8". Now, the only shot at rain for us is in the first half of October because (I think) you and I suspect the second half of October is going to be dominated by east ridge/west trough. And if we're right about the forecast for October (cold first half, warm second half), this would be a complete opposite of last October (warm first half, very cold second half). Interesting.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 30 2014, 11:11 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 30 2014, 10:35 AM) *
I don't understand how the east US pattern changed so dramatically this past month. It's like someone flipped a switch. For example, In most of Ohio, we went from a very wet year to the 4th driest September on record; ranging from a total of 0.6" to a whopping 0.8". Now, the only shot at rain for us is in the first half of October because (I think) you and I suspect the second half of October is going to be dominated by east ridge/west trough. And if we're right about the forecast for October (cold first half, warm second half), this would be a complete opposite of last October (warm first half, very cold second half). Interesting.


Maybe some other energy (ISM) in some other place on the planet disrupted (Northward Propagation) the wave train configuration (Rossby standing wave) you were becoming acclimated with. But, in reality, it's probably just the atmosphere taking a deep breath and resetting itself somehow.

http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/.







And, I disagree. I am thinking last week of August. It's been here before.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 30 2014, 12:14 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 30 2014, 12:11 PM) *
Maybe some other energy (ISM) in some other place on the planet disrupted (Northward Propagation) the wave train configuration (Rossby standing wave) you were becoming acclimated with. But, in reality, it's probably just the atmosphere taking a deep breath and resetting itself somehow.

http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/.







And, I disagree. I am thinking last week of August. It's been here before.

Awesome! I assume that this was written by Gary Lezak? (the hint was "my hypothesis; Lezak's Recurring Cycle") I can't access that page without a subscription tongue.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 30 2014, 12:25 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 30 2014, 12:14 PM) *
Awesome! I assume that this was written by Gary Lezak? (the hint was "my hypothesis; Lezak's Recurring Cycle") I can't access that page without a subscription tongue.gif


It is refreshing to see him using "hypothesis" instead of "theory".

EDIT: About the subscription. When you click on "Blog", if you instruct your browser window to stop loading before the page is loaded, you'll be able to see the content. The subscription pop up window will not pop up. I told GL about this bug several months ago when he first launched 2020.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 30 2014, 01:27 PM




Fun https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/516730620341673984.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 30 2014, 02:11 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 30 2014, 01:25 PM) *
It is refreshing to see him using "hypothesis" instead of "theory".

EDIT: About the subscription. When you click on "Blog", if you instruct your browser window to stop loading before the page is loaded, you'll be able to see the content. The subscription pop up window will not pop up. I told GL about this bug several months ago when he first launched 2020.

Thanks for that! I'm going to spend some time today to read all that I've missed smile.gif

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 30 2014, 02:27 PM) *



Fun https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/516730620341673984.

Today's 12z ECMWF does not have that trough beating the Bering sea ridge anymore... but I understand that's just one run. If this system does make it, it's going to make for some really "fun" weather. wink.gif I just hope that it's progressive this time, not that same *bleep* we've had all year.

Huge ridge by hour 174 blink.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 30 2014, 02:38 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 30 2014, 02:11 PM) *
Thanks for that! I'm going to spend some time today to read all that I've missed smile.gif


LOL. Have a blast.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 30 2014, 02:11 PM) *
Today's 12z ECMWF does not have that trough beating the Bering sea ridge anymore... but I understand that's just one run. If this system does make it, it's going to make for some really "fun" weather. wink.gif I just hope that it's progressive this time, not that same *bleep* we've had all year.

Huge ridge by hour 174 blink.gif


My confidence wanes +72. +144 gets a wink. #trending

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 30 2014, 02:42 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 30 2014, 03:38 PM) *
LOL. Have a blast.
My confidence wanes +72. +144 gets a wink. #trending

12z ECMWF has the system at 144 retrograding/becoming stationary west of the Bering sea, then weakening. But it sends wave after wave of energy to the western edge of the ridge. The previous run (29/00z) had it barreling in slowly, reminding me of the closed low that caused the tornado outbreak in late April this year. Either way, this is going to be an interesting system when it comes 'round.

Posted by: OSNW3 Sep 30 2014, 03:04 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 30 2014, 02:42 PM) *
12z ECMWF has the system at 144 retrograding/becoming stationary west of the Bering sea, then weakening. But it sends wave after wave of energy to the western edge of the ridge. The previous run (29/00z) had it barreling in slowly, reminding me of the closed low that caused the tornado outbreak in late April this year. Either way, this is going to be an interesting system when it comes 'round.


Agreed. While it isn't strong enough to show up in my analysis charts (I am strict), I am noticing ~47 days gaining momentum. If that is the case we can expect 9/10-16 ish CONUS pattern.

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140818/pac00.500fcst.00.2014081800.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140819/pac00.500fcst.00.2014081900.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140820/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082002.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140821/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082102.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140822/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082202.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140823/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082302.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140824/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082400.gif

More - http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep/charts

Just an idea!

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Sep 30 2014, 04:17 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 30 2014, 04:04 PM) *
Agreed. While it isn't strong enough to show up in my analysis charts (I am strict), I am noticing ~47 days gaining momentum. If that is the case we can expect 9/10-16 ish CONUS pattern.

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140818/pac00.500fcst.00.2014081800.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140819/pac00.500fcst.00.2014081900.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140820/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082002.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140821/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082102.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140822/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082202.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140823/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082302.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140824/pac00.500fcst.00.2014082400.gif

More - http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep/charts

Just an idea!

Hmmm... so you propose that the trough that's showing up in the 10/8 time frame might be analogous to the 8/18-8/24 Bering sea trough that you linked? Does this imply that the 9/10-9/16 GL trough will be analogous to the late October trough?


If so, then how do we explain the strong Bering sea ridge that's been reigning for a week or so? This ridge doesn't look like anything we've seen in August. For example:

12z ECMWF at hour 36...


...and 12z GFS at hour 42


..and from a while back
QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 28 2014, 12:30 AM) *


Sorry for the rambling questions... I hope they aren't hard to follow. Tell me if they are so I can try to re-word it. As usual, I know what I'm trying to ask, but I can't translate it well when there's lots going on in my mind. Basically, you blew my mind.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 1 2014, 11:17 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 08:34 PM) *
Agreed. I am betting it will resemble something like the last 5 days of July. ~60 day harmonic puts it down the last 5 days of September. We shall see.


As expected the Rossby standing wave has dominant frequencies and harmonics. A month ago it was around 60 days. It has modulated since, showing a http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907096 and now a high 60s to begin Oct. Based on the timing of the BSR we now know http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1906860 to the harmonic showing up. Here we are, the first week of Oct and ~68 days is dominant http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907639 instead of late Sep.





Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 1 2014, 11:21 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 30 2014, 04:17 PM) *
Hmmm... so you propose that the trough that's showing up in the 10/8 time frame might be analogous to the 8/18-8/24 Bering sea trough that you linked? Does this imply that the 9/10-9/16 GL trough will be analogous to the late October trough?


Yes.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 30 2014, 04:17 PM) *
If so, then how do we explain the strong Bering sea ridge that's been reigning for a week or so? This ridge doesn't look like anything we've seen in August.


I think you guys knocked it out of the park in the Fall thread.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31805&st=320&start=320

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 30 2014, 04:17 PM) *
Sorry for the rambling questions... I hope they aren't hard to follow. Tell me if they are so I can try to re-word it. As usual, I know what I'm trying to ask, but I can't translate it well when there's lots going on in my mind.


I think you are doing a fine job at expressing yourself. Thanks for participating. This is fun.

Posted by: WeatherMonger Oct 1 2014, 01:51 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 1 2014, 11:17 AM) *
As expected the Rossby standing wave has dominant frequencies and harmonics. A month ago it was around 60 days. It has modulated since, showing a http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907096 and now a high 60s to begin Oct. Based on the timing of the BSR we now know http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1906860 to the harmonic showing up. Here we are, the first week of Oct and ~68 days is dominant http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907639 instead of late Sep.



Kind of wondering how this severe threat today and tomorrow 0 lays out. Falls in line with late July and before that early June? Both moderate risks. The July one busted.

This fall within your alignment?





 

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 1 2014, 02:21 PM

QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Oct 1 2014, 01:51 PM) *
Kind of wondering how this severe threat today and tomorrow 0 lays out. Falls in line with late July and before that early June? Both moderate risks. The July one busted.

This fall within your alignment?


Yes. Jul 26 (connects Oct 2) as the system in the northern branch drops down from a NW direction.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20140726.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20140727.html

The southern branch is a different pattern http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907120 that is fading.

How can that be, right?!

Remember, I make this *bleep* up as I go. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 3 2014, 01:19 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 08:34 PM) *
Agreed. I am betting it will resemble something like the last 5 days of July. ~60 day harmonic puts it down the last 5 days of September. We shall see.


http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907075
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907237

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 27 2014, 09:28 AM) *
Seems the 33-35 day harmonic has maintained itself, connecting 8/22 to now. As for the short-term 18-20, that rolled back to the more dominant 12-15 since 8/1. This fine tunes the long-term into a 5th harmonic around ~68 days connecting Oct 2 to Jul 26 as the 33-35 day and ~68 day meld together as Sept ends and Oct begins.


http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1908160

It's trying so hard... but it's bigger and badder! It's October.





Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 3 2014, 03:35 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 1 2014, 12:21 PM) *
Yes.
I think you guys knocked it out of the park in the Fall thread.
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31805&st=320&start=320
I think you are doing a fine job at expressing yourself. Thanks for participating. This is fun.

Thanks man, I appreciate it.

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 3 2014, 02:19 PM) *
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907075
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1907237
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1908160

It's trying so hard... but it's bigger and badder! It's October.





I wonder if this "winter-like vortex" is still associated with the 2013-2014 pattern. I was thinking that it can't be very likely that this anomalously trough is a part of the new pattern. Especially considering the sharp AO drop is analogous to the sharp AO drop we saw in January.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 3 2014, 03:46 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 3 2014, 03:35 PM) *
I wonder if this "winter-like vortex" is still associated with the 2013-2014 pattern. I was thinking that it can't be very likely that this anomalously trough is a part of the new pattern. Especially considering the sharp AO drop is analogous to the sharp AO drop we saw in January.


I am interested in why you think this.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 3 2014, 05:00 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 3 2014, 04:46 PM) *
I am interested in why you think this.

I don't... it's just an idea

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 3 2014, 04:35 PM) *
Especially considering the sharp AO drop is analogous to the sharp AO drop we saw in January.


Posted by: MaineJay Oct 3 2014, 10:26 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 29 2014, 02:30 PM) *
I moved this over here for me to come back to at some point. smile.gif


I nearly posted it in here smile.gif I have been giving the guitar strings/sound wave analogy a lot of thought. Been picking people's brains about music theory and stuff. Fascinating.

So what's the typhoon rule say about recurving typhoons that linger around southern Japan for nearly a week. As the GFS suggests for Vongfong. blink.gif

Hr 111


Hr 188


Hr 264


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=asia&cycle=20141003%2018%20UTC&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=&ps=model

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 4 2014, 08:50 AM

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1906819

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Sep 28 2014, 04:57 PM) *
Just a quick follow-up on this for fun.

Rise in temps around 8th, drop around the 11th, another rise around the 13th. What's a couple days between friends?

While this goes back a year, it's a funny "coincidence" that Josh's recent charts show the long term waves being the best correlations, just as this strong cycle is coming around. Still time to bust, but it's neat to see this for now.




Here's a nicer chart provided by Accuweather .. less than a week out and looking good. We will see...

Rise around 8th, drop around 11th, rise around 13th. 57 day cycle going back 1 year.. strongest cycle repeat (for mean temps VS averages) I could find for CPA (see chart via first link)





Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 4 2014, 09:47 AM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 3 2014, 10:26 PM) *
I nearly posted it in here smile.gif I have been giving the guitar strings/sound wave analogy a lot of thought. Been picking people's brains about music theory and stuff. Fascinating.


I have often thought it would be neat to transcribe an oscillation to musical notes. Hear the pattern. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 4 2014, 09:54 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 4 2014, 08:50 AM) *
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1906819
Here's a nicer chart provided by Accuweather .. less than a week out and looking good. We will see...

Rise around 8th, drop around 11th, rise around 13th. 57 day cycle going back 1 year.. strongest cycle repeat (for mean temps VS averages) I could find for CPA (see chart via first link)




Are you suggesting the pattern hasn't changed? smile.gif

You are in my climate region 9.
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Time to watch how the auto-discovery works. #fingerscrossed

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 4 2014, 12:26 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 4 2014, 10:54 AM) *
Are you suggesting the pattern hasn't changed? smile.gif

You are in my climate region 9.
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Time to watch how the auto-discovery works. #fingerscrossed


laugh.gif No.. like you've said many times, it's absurd to think the cycle length would remain static. Out of 57 days, these are the only 3 - 5 periods (6-15 days?) that have remained so consistent. It's just a very dominant period (harmonic?) that has stuck around for a year +. I'm sure it will be disrupted soon enough.

This IS fun stuff. smile.gif

I'll be interested to see the dominant harmonic come the 7th - 9th this month. If 57 shows up.. holy moly. haha

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 4 2014, 12:35 PM

Region 9.. 53 days. Wow.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Also.. 56 and 57 has never shown up since 8/1 .. 58 only once. So if 57 even shows up mid-week, that would be neato.


Posted by: jdrenken Oct 4 2014, 02:33 PM

Sorry gang...just switched to days from evenings and barely got this on the blog.

QUOTE
Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1219 bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Phanfone starts its recurve on the 5th of October which gives Mid-Missouri itís response on October12th. Then, slow ridging follows between the 7th and 10th of October in East Asia which allows for a recovery here starting on the 14th. The GFS Ensembles support the European model suites better than the GFS Operational for TD 19W (Vongfong). That being said, look for the first recurve close to 130įE on the 10th and the recurve that takes it away from Japan is on the next day. That translates to a quick cold front on the 17th here and another, sharper and stronger, one follows in itís heals. Much like what we are experiencing this weekend.

The Bering Sea has ridging between the 3rd and 5th of October which will provide a respite from below normal temperatures this month between the 23rd and 25th. However, another strong sub-Aleutian low from the 5th until the 11th places Central Missouri in below normal temperatures from the 25th to 31st. Central Missouri will begin November on a cold note. A quick ridge develops on the 14th due to a system in the Sea of Okhotsk and then it throws multiple systems after the 15th. SoÖlooking at the first week of November being below normal.

Donít forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as itís being noticed on the blogsphere.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 4 2014, 11:48 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 29 2014, 09:26 AM) *
Top ISO/RR correls today 67-68, 32 days.

BSR Oct 1, connects to ~Oct 21 in CONUS.




ISO/RR ~32 days from Oct 21


ISO/RR ~68 days from Oct 21


Easy to guess, another trough in the West around Oct 21?

Right on cue!



Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 5 2014, 08:49 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 4 2014, 02:33 PM) *
Sorry gang...just switched to days from evenings and barely got this on the blog.

----

Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Phanfone starts its recurve on the 5th of October which gives Mid-Missouri itís response on October12th. Then, slow ridging follows between the 7th and 10th of October in East Asia which allows for a recovery here starting on the 14th. The GFS Ensembles support the European model suites better than the GFS Operational for TD 19W (Vongfong). That being said, look for the first recurve close to 130įE on the 10th and the recurve that takes it away from Japan is on the next day. That translates to a quick cold front on the 17th here and another, sharper and stronger, one follows in itís heals. Much like what we are experiencing this weekend.

The Bering Sea has ridging between the 3rd and 5th of October which will provide a respite from below normal temperatures this month between the 23rd and 25th. However, another strong sub-Aleutian low from the 5th until the 11th places Central Missouri in below normal temperatures from the 25th to 31st. Central Missouri will begin November on a cold note. A quick ridge develops on the 14th due to a system in the Sea of Okhotsk and then it throws multiple systems after the 15th. SoÖlooking at the first week of November being below normal.

Donít forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as itís being noticed on the blogsphere.




Look, a chance of snow in mid/late November. wink.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 5 2014, 08:53 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 20 2014, 08:10 AM) *
Second week of November huh.....perfect timing for my deer hunting vacation and rut time. Granted that's mn


The auto-discovery duration is running now. It has changed a wee bit.

Posted by: WEATHERFREAK Oct 5 2014, 01:18 PM

What does a recurving north indian tropical cyclone portray?

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 5 2014, 05:33 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 4 2014, 10:54 AM) *
Are you suggesting the pattern hasn't changed? smile.gif

You are in my climate region 9.
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Time to watch how the auto-discovery works. #fingerscrossed


Been checking out your new site and charts. I might be addicted/obsessed with them already. Going to be a long winter. laugh.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 5 2014, 07:56 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 4 2014, 11:48 PM) *
Right on cue!


That is a very long way out for that model. smile.gif

EDIT: But, a quick glance at the http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html, it seems a low/mid 30 day frequency is gaining steam. Some regions out West have been showing it for over a week. This means I dig the Sept 18 analog versus the Aug 13 of the original post. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 5 2014, 08:04 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 5 2014, 05:33 PM) *
Been checking out your new site and charts. I might be addicted/obsessed with them already. Going to be a long winter. laugh.gif


Thanks for checking it out. That makes two people looking at it. Me and you. I am the only person who worked on it, so please, if you see anything out of whack, let me know! smile.gif

EDIT: Yesterday I noticed I had your station in the wrong climate zone. I moved it. Tonight I just noticed I probably forgot to "tell the model to run your station in the other climate zone". UGH. See, these kinda things. LOL. I am fixing it right now...

EDIT: Yep, that was it! whOOp.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 5 2014, 08:12 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 5 2014, 09:04 PM) *
Thanks for checking it out. That makes two people looking at it. Me and you. I am the only person who worked on it, so please, if you see anything out of whack, let me know! smile.gif

EDIT: Yesterday I noticed I had your station in the wrong climate zone. I moved it. Tonight I just noticed I probably forgot to "tell the model to run your station in the other climate zone". UGH. See, these kinda things. LOL. I am fixing it right now...

EDIT: Yep, that was it! whOOp.


You bet! I almost thought I did need to say something, b/c the low temps through 10/4 looked too high. But when I checked, they was right. I didn't even notice the "warm" mornings, until I was freezing this morning. ohmy.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 5 2014, 08:19 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 5 2014, 08:12 PM) *
You bet! I almost thought I did need to say something, b/c the low temps through 10/4 looked too high. But when I checked, they was right. I didn't even notice the "warm" mornings, until I was freezing this morning. ohmy.gif


Excellent. My brain moves fast and I forget things easily. I had lists upon lists upon lists of things that needed to get done by Oct 2nd. LOL. It is also quite easy to fat finger a few lines of code. Thanks!!

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 5 2014, 08:24 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 16 2014, 09:48 AM) *
A ridge will be present around October 9th (BSR ~20 days). Timing always a factor when dealing with http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ a few days out. Recurring Rossby 54-60 days (August 13th map). Some "fine tuning" taking place. The long-term waves will lose correlation strength to the short-term waves as Autumn approaches.




Sweet. Levi has some ECMWF up the mix.






Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 7 2014, 12:06 PM

For what it is worth.

A member of the olden LRC cohort text me stating he sees a 53 day duration.

While a bit weak, a 51 day frequency since 8/1/14 shows up in the CONUS chart. Click on http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html to see what I am seeing. A low 50s frequency has shown up a handful of times in the heat-map as well, but mainly without sequence most recently. If it's not in sequence I disregard it in the formulas. Click on http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html to see what I am seeing.

Fun stuff? I think so. I like the upper 30s freq that are showing up in the CONUS heat-map. If I were an LRC'er, I think I would still bet on a 54-60 day cycle. We shall see. wink.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 7 2014, 12:47 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 16 2014, 09:48 AM) *
A ridge will be present around October 9th (BSR ~20 days). Timing always a factor when dealing with http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/ a few days out.


I am happy to see the ridge show up. 21 days in BSR time.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 7 2014, 01:10 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 7 2014, 01:06 PM) *
For what it is worth.

A member of the olden LRC cohort text me stating he sees a 53 day duration.

While a bit weak, a 51 day frequency since 8/1/14 shows up in the CONUS chart. Click on http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html to see what I am seeing. A low 50s frequency has shown up a handful of times in the heat-map as well, but mainly without sequence most recently. If it's not in sequence I disregard it in the formulas. Click on http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html to see what I am seeing.

Fun stuff? I think so. I like the upper 30s freq that are showing up in the CONUS heat-map. If I were an LRC'er, I think I would still bet on a 54-60 day cycle. We shall see. wink.gif


Your heat map for Region 9 agrees immensely. wink.gif
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1908546

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 7 2014, 01:11 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 7 2014, 01:47 PM) *
I am happy to see the ridge show up. 21 days in BSR time.


Fun stuff. smile.gif
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1906819

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 7 2014, 01:13 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 7 2014, 01:10 PM) *
Your heat map for Region 9 agrees immensely. wink.gif
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1908546


Yes it does! Also, in Region 1, ST is 13 while most recent dominant is 40. Harmonize, 53. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 7 2014, 02:22 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 7 2014, 01:11 PM) *
Fun stuff. smile.gif
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1906819


Are you referring to your circle 1 in that post? #progressive smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 7 2014, 02:41 PM

Pure gold.



http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/



http://weather.koamtv.com/2014/10/07/tuesday-am-blog-more-rain-in-the-forecast-the-hpheady-pattern-is-set-and-rolling-what-does-this-mean/

Am I right?!

Posted by: hbgweather Oct 7 2014, 03:11 PM

Im still not picking it up. maybe I'm dumb. Are we going to be dominantly warm this winter on the east/mid-atlantic.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 7 2014, 04:26 PM

QUOTE(hbgweather @ Oct 7 2014, 03:11 PM) *
Im still not picking it up. maybe I'm dumb. Are we going to be dominantly warm this winter on the east/mid-atlantic.


I am not sure a winter forecast for your area has been discussed in this forum. So, no you are not dumb. If you are interested, I have three stations in that vicinity the I run trends for on my site. Follow the link below and click the desired icon on the map.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stationr.html

Scroll all the way to the bottom of the table. Things are broken down by month and season.

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 7 2014, 05:09 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 7 2014, 02:41 PM) *
Pure gold.



http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/



http://weather.koamtv.com/2014/10/07/tuesday-am-blog-more-rain-in-the-forecast-the-hpheady-pattern-is-set-and-rolling-what-does-this-mean/

Am I right?!



#sigh unsure.gif

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 7 2014, 06:28 PM

Yep...just another example of bi-polar http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1246.


Posted by: JDClapper Oct 7 2014, 06:46 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 7 2014, 03:22 PM) *
Are you referring to your circle 1 in that post? #progressive smile.gif


Indeed I was. It was fun to watch that for a year .. time to start up a new file, version 2. biggrin.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 7 2014, 06:51 PM

Have you ever considered adding a "mean" temperature chart?


Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 7 2014, 07:29 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 7 2014, 06:51 PM) *
Have you ever considered adding a "mean" temperature chart?


I have. Not sure why I have not gone that route. I suppose I like to see if the model can pick out extreme temperature swings? The Maps and Motion Charts are measuring MeanT this season.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 7 2014, 07:30 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 7 2014, 05:09 PM) *
#sigh unsure.gif


#hogwash

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 8 2014, 11:17 AM

12Z GFS 72HR.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/

~32 day dominant frequency in Region 6

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html

BSR ~20 days from 10/11 is 10/31. 10/31 minus ISO/RR 32 days is 9/29. ISH.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20140929.html

The black square in the top image is Shemya, AK. We often correlate that station to Springfield, MO. Interesting solutions. Always looking, always learning.

Posted by: goblue96 Oct 8 2014, 05:01 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 7 2014, 06:09 PM) *
#sigh unsure.gif



QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 7 2014, 08:30 PM) *
#hogwash


#phooey unsure.gif

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 8 2014, 05:48 PM

QUOTE(goblue96 @ Oct 8 2014, 05:01 PM) *
#phooey unsure.gif


Meaning?

My sigh was directed at how DH was claiming we were already in an El NiŮo. I invite you to look there for the laughable status.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 8 2014, 06:44 PM

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropical-cyclone-hudhud-india-bay-bengal-20141008

Could this Cyclone have any eventual effect on our weather like Typhoons do?



QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 8 2014, 12:17 PM) *
12Z GFS 72HR.


The black square in the top image is Shemya, AK. We often correlate that station to Springfield, MO. Interesting solutions. Always looking, always learning.

Now the BSR makes more sense to me...thanks smile.gif

Posted by: grace Oct 8 2014, 08:08 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 8 2014, 05:48 PM) *
Meaning?

My sigh was directed at how DH was claiming we were already in an El NiŮo. I invite you to look there for the laughable status.



https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/519938333439713281

rolleyes.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 9 2014, 02:37 PM

53 days showing up every day since September 4th .. even on the 9th and 10th when not many showed on the heat map. (Region 9) I suppose when I get my new file started, I'll set it up for 53 days initially and see how it matches up. I know last year 51 days seemed like a good match a couple cycles in, but then 57 worked out better mid-late season.


Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 10 2014, 09:40 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 9 2014, 02:37 PM) *
53 days showing up every day since September 4th .. even on the 9th and 10th when not many showed on the heat map. (Region 9) I suppose when I get my new file started, I'll set it up for 53 days initially and see how it matches up. I know last year 51 days seemed like a good match a couple cycles in, but then 57 worked out better mid-late season.


Unreal. smile.gif




Seems other harmonics ares more dominant recently, but that 52-53 day harmonic in http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html is making it's presence felt on the http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html visualization you presented.




The surface forecasts are currently based off the harmonics in the image above. Not many 52-53. Interesting?

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 10 2014, 09:52 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 9 2014, 02:37 PM) *
53 days showing up every day since September 4th .. even on the 9th and 10th when not many showed on the heat map. (Region 9) I suppose when I get my new file started, I'll set it up for 53 days initially and see how it matches up. I know last year 51 days seemed like a good match a couple cycles in, but then 57 worked out better mid-late season.

[attachment=239776:]

im falling so far beind in this thread its almost aggravating.....I still don't understand these heat maps

I swear I feel like I need a powerpoint to dumb it down haha

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 10 2014, 10:04 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 10 2014, 09:52 AM) *
im falling so far beind in this thread its almost aggravating.....I still don't understand these heat maps

I swear I feel like I need a powerpoint to dumb it down haha


No PPT. wink.gif

500mb "cycle" length correlation. It represents the top 10 daily 500mb "cycle" length correlations. The numbers in the heat-map are "cycle" length. They are color coded for ease of visualization. Left to right is 1 through 10. It is an attempt to pick out the dominant harmonic of the recurring Rossby wave train pattern. There are http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html for this as well.

When you look at it, what do you see? Perhaps if I know this I could explain it properly, or better yet, create a visualization that makes more sense. I admit I have trouble relaying what is in my head to others. smile.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 10 2014, 10:37 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 10 2014, 10:04 AM) *
No PPT. wink.gif

500mb "cycle" length correlation. It represents the top 10 daily 500mb "cycle" length correlations. The numbers in the heat-map are "cycle" length. They are color coded for ease of visualization. Left to right is 1 through 10. It is an attempt to pick out the dominant harmonic of the recurring Rossby wave train pattern. There are http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html for this as well.

When you look at it, what do you see? Perhaps if I know this I could explain it properly, or better yet, create a visualization that makes more sense. I admit I have trouble relaying what is in my head to others. smile.gif

So when I look at post 157...I completely understand the correlation there...

(The following is correlating to the map in post 156)

so I just need a breakdown of one line to start...so lets say 9/3/14 with the numbers 20,18,19, 21 52 (so these numbers would mean the correlating cycle lengths best represent 20,18,19,21,52 days? So basically this is a repeating pattern on average best desribed by 8/13-8/16 ish? 52 days prior to 9/3/14.

my next question is how come some lines don't have all 10 "top" analogs patterns (if you will) and some do

So the colors are really for picking out "common" cycles.


So then second example for instance 10/9/14.....this pattern correlates to 16-24 days ago as well as 52-53 days ago and 67-68 days ago

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 10 2014, 01:43 PM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 10 2014, 10:37 AM) *
so I just need a breakdown of one line to start...so lets say 9/3/14 with the numbers 20,18,19, 21 52 (so these numbers would mean the correlating cycle lengths best represent 20,18,19,21,52 days? So basically this is a repeating pattern on average best desribed by 8/13-8/16 ish? 52 days prior to 9/3/14.


Correct.

FWIW, when it comes to using the dominant recurring features in my forecast code I only look for the correlations that have a sequence. In your example, 52 would not have made the cut. 18-21 would have.

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 10 2014, 10:37 AM) *
my next question is how come some lines don't have all 10 "top" analogs patterns (if you will) and some do


For the correlation to be acknowledged as legit it must have a correlation equal to 0.4 or greater. If it is below 0.4 I discard it. I have an idea why this happens, why there isn't a deep harmonic correlation. I know it's buried in this thread some where...

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 10 2014, 10:37 AM) *
So the colors are really for picking out "common" cycles.


Correct. To pick them out quickly. Blue is short-term, Red is long-term.

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 10 2014, 10:37 AM) *
So then second example for instance 10/9/14.....this pattern correlates to 16-24 days ago as well as 52-53 days ago and 67-68 days ago


Correct.

FWIW, the forecast code would have accepted 16-20, 52-53, and 67-68. 24 would have been dropped.



Posted by: WeatherMonger Oct 10 2014, 02:20 PM

Thanks, OHB!

Your question(s) helped me as much as you.

I couldn't figure it out either but wasn't sure what question to ask laugh.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 10 2014, 02:27 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 10 2014, 01:43 PM) *
Correct.

FWIW, when it comes to using the dominant recurring features in my forecast code I only look for the correlations that have a sequence. In your example, 52 would not have made the cut. 18-21 would have.
For the correlation to be acknowledged as legit it must have a correlation equal to 0.4 or greater. If it is below 0.4 I discard it. I have an idea why this happens, why there isn't a deep harmonic correlation. I know it's buried in this thread some where...
Correct. To pick them out quickly. Blue is short-term, Red is long-term.
Correct.

FWIW, the forecast code would have accepted 16-20, 52-53, and 67-68. 24 would have been dropped.

This makes perfect sense now!! thanks.....what a great tool. So then since these graphs are "past state".....this is what you base the line graphs,charts,and predictions for future state correct?

QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Oct 10 2014, 02:20 PM) *
Thanks, OHB!

Your question(s) helped me as much as you.

I couldn't figure it out either but wasn't sure what question to ask laugh.gif


haha I thought that might be the case

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 10 2014, 02:51 PM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 10 2014, 02:27 PM) *
This makes perfect sense now!! thanks.....what a great tool. So then since these graphs are "past state".....this is what you base the line graphs,charts,and predictions for future state correct?


I want to mention that I appreciate the interest. Thanks for taking the time to understand it with me. This will only help the process become more easily interpreted by others. In which case the ideas presented can be liberated or ripped apart and buried. smile.gif

And to answer your question. Correct.

The graphs, charts, and predictions are based on three scenarios.

Scenario 1 scales the 10-30 and 60-90 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-60 day MaddenĖJulian oscillation (MJO).

Scenario 2 scales the 10-30 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-90 day tropical Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).

Scenario 3 does not utilize MJO/ISO scaling. This is a 1 to 1 connection of the mid-latitude Rossby standing wave 10-90 daily 500mb correlation.

Each scenario has three sub scenarios.

Full Blend, which uses all past oscillation outcomes back to 7/1.
Previous 2 Blend, which use the previous two oscillation outcomes.
Previous 1 Blend, which uses the previous oscillation outcome only.

What is displayed in the data (graphs, charts, and predictions) is listed as "members of an ensemble".

M1 is each scenario using the Previous 1 blend.
M2 is each scenario using the Previous 2 blend.
M3 is each scenario using the Full blend.

And then I mean them to make even more of an eye sore.

Doing this has disconnected my data from the LRC/Heady Pattern thought process.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 10 2014, 02:51 PM

What are these charts trying to show me? The date range shows 8/1 - 10/10 .. is it showing how frequent the recurrences are? Like, a 19-20 sequence is the most common, then 10-13, then 52-53?

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html



Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 10 2014, 03:15 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 10 2014, 02:51 PM) *
What are these charts trying to show me? The date range shows 8/1 - 10/10 .. is it showing how frequent the recurrences are? Like, a 19-20 sequence is the most common, then 10-13, then 52-53?

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html




Correct.

The red line represents the duration equaling or greater then 0.4 correlation. The blue bar represents the duration equaling or greater then 0.4 correlation for 20% of the time span in which the chart shows. I am displaying a running total for the entire season and the past 15 days. This may help when trying to understand the current state of the standing wave. Not sure.

I thought about putting the wave charts up, but I thought it would be fun to see accumulated statistics. I could be wrong. The state of your wave is below. LOL.




Posted by: jdrenken Oct 10 2014, 05:48 PM

10OCT14

QUOTE
Hello everyone,

This is Joe Renken of http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1257 bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Typhoon Vongfong recurves late on the 11th into the 12th of October, weakening as it hits Japan. The height falls, or trough, that is left behind last until the 18th. This will translate into Central Missouri having below normal temperatures from October 19th until the 25th. A ridge than develops and stays for 3 days until yet another trough develops and breaks it down. I believe the long range of the GFS is bringing ridging into East Asia too quickly afterwards.

The Bering Sea is showing a volatile pattern during this forecast period. We have ridging until the 14th of October, which means we will experience warmth late in the month and early November. Timing of this ridge is crucial as when it gets broken down needs to be close to the Typhoon Rule section above. One or two days below normal temperatures until the 17th of October, or late in the first week of November for us, as a trough breaks down the original ridge and then another ridge comes in itís heals until the 20th. The GFS Ensemble packages support the European packages in continuing the ridge to match my mid-November warm up call.

Donít forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as itís being noticed on the blogsphere.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 11 2014, 06:27 AM

All http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html are showing majority of blues. It is safe to say that the ST is the dominant Rossby wave train. If you dig map compares, connect 10/11 to ~9/17. Then harmonize to ~8/24. (24/48)

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 11 2014, 11:33 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 10 2014, 10:40 AM) *
Unreal. smile.gif




Seems other harmonics ares more dominant recently, but that 52-53 day harmonic in http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html is making it's presence felt on the http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html visualization you presented.




The surface forecasts are currently based off the harmonics in the image above. Not many 52-53. Interesting?


So far, for IPT .. your formulas are doing pretty well with high temps.. so-so on low temps.. and 50/50 on precip. Today's forecast (per AW) is 63 - 35, the chart below is 62/63 - 43. So far it's been 58 - 49. ohmy.gif

Upcoming above normal temps are around 10/13 and 10/17 with a big drop around 10/19. smile.gif

OH, and possible frost on 10/15? AW doesn't think so.. with a forecast of 66 - 52.

Anyhow, fun to watch and learn.



Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 12 2014, 08:00 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 11 2014, 11:33 AM) *
So far, for IPT .. your formulas are doing pretty well with high temps.. so-so on low temps.. and 50/50 on precip. Today's forecast (per AW) is 63 - 35, the chart below is 62/63 - 43. So far it's been 58 - 49. ohmy.gif

Upcoming above normal temps are around 10/13 and 10/17 with a big drop around 10/19. smile.gif

OH, and possible frost on 10/15? AW doesn't think so.. with a forecast of 66 - 52.

Anyhow, fun to watch and learn.




I enjoy (and appreciate) this in depth analysis of the formula result. I plan to create another sub site just for specific verification results. Just remember that none of this is going to be exact. I am more looking for the ability to spot trends.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 12 2014, 08:03 AM

Speaking of which, MCI is a bullseye for big snow this season. Will be fun to watch evolve. 40-60 inches is near records for them is it not?

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 12 2014, 01:14 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 11 2014, 12:33 PM) *
So far, for IPT .. your formulas are doing pretty well with high temps.. so-so on low temps.. and 50/50 on precip. Today's forecast (per AW) is 63 - 35, the chart below is 62/63 - 43. So far it's been 58 - 49. ohmy.gif

Upcoming above normal temps are around 10/13 and 10/17 with a big drop around 10/19. smile.gif

OH, and possible frost on 10/15? AW doesn't think so.. with a forecast of 66 - 52.

Anyhow, fun to watch and learn.





QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 12 2014, 09:00 AM) *
I enjoy (and appreciate) this in depth analysis of the formula result. I plan to create another sub site just for specific verification results. Just remember that none of this is going to be exact. I am more looking for the ability to spot trends.


Ended up 65 - 43. Nailed it. laugh.gif

Oh, absolutely. Was thinking that myself.. but have to say the temp charts are definitely off to a stellar start.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 12 2014, 06:48 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 11 2014, 06:27 AM) *
All http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html are showing majority of blues. It is safe to say that the ST is the dominant Rossby wave train. If you dig map compares, connect 10/11 to ~9/17. Then harmonize to ~8/24. (24/48)


https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/520940981768978433

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 12 2014, 06:50 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 12 2014, 01:14 PM) *
Ended up 65 - 43. Nailed it. laugh.gif

Oh, absolutely. Was thinking that myself.. but have to say the temp charts are definitely off to a stellar start.


Other locations are not enjoying the same amount of success. wink.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 13 2014, 08:31 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 29 2014, 08:26 AM) *
Top ISO/RR correls today 67-68, 32 days.

BSR Oct 1, connects to ~Oct 21 in CONUS.




ISO/RR ~32 days from Oct 21


ISO/RR ~68 days from Oct 21


Easy to guess, another trough in the West around Oct 21?


6Z GFS has western troughs galore in the time frame discussed above. Certainly have some short-term harmony going on in http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 13 2014, 08:47 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 11 2014, 06:27 AM) *
All http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html are showing majority of blues. It is safe to say that the ST is the dominant Rossby wave train. If you dig map compares, connect 10/11 to ~9/17. Then harmonize to ~8/24. (24/48)


Harmonics. This will take some thought and ability to time hop, but if you have been following along it should come quite painlessly.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1908028
https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/520940981768978433

Both patterns suggest trough in ECONUS for a couple days at month change.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 13 2014, 01:53 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 12 2014, 08:03 AM) *
Speaking of which, MCI is a bullseye for big snow this season. Will be fun to watch evolve. 40-60 inches is near records for them is it not?


Just tossing it out there. MCI top-5 record snow this year. smile.gif

Rank Snowfall Season
1 67.0 inches 1911-1912
2 58.5 inches 1959-1960
3 54.7 inches 1961-1962
4 44.3 inches 2009-2010
5 42.4 inches 1925-1926
6 38.6 inches 1898-1899
7 37.3 inches 1914-1915
8 37.1 inches 1923-1924
9 36.9 inches 2010-2011
10 36.3 inches 1897-1998

Source: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=kcwinterstats#lowsnow

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 13 2014, 03:29 PM

Some light reading.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/daes/atmclasses/atm421/Handouts_files/Gloeckler_ResearchPresentation.pdf

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 13 2014, 09:28 PM

Working on the BSR Index. Since we have been discussing the opportunity for some weather at month change I thought I would share the recent correls and upcoming projection. Measuring the max sea level pressure. Looks to be a big dip in the time frame.




Changing the BSR duration a day changes the correl. So I listed a few below. The image above is of 22 days.

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 0.705403788 21
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 0.800236474 21
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.332543483 21
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.473943092 21
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 0.691452876 21

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 -0.1083729 22
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 -0.006104484 22
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.844405895 22
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.792053815 22
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 -0.047293462 22

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 -0.449389939 23
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 -0.561455781 23
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.941924406 23
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.929622542 23
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 -0.481360829 23

EDIT: It's just as apparent that there is a massive rise coming after the dip as well. wink.gif

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 13 2014, 10:33 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 13 2014, 10:28 PM) *
Working on the BSR Index. Since we have been discussing the opportunity for some weather at month change I thought I would share the recent correls and upcoming projection. Measuring the max sea level pressure. Looks to be a big dip in the time frame.




Changing the BSR duration a day changes the correl. So I listed a few below. The image above is of 22 days.

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 0.705403788 21
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 0.800236474 21
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.332543483 21
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.473943092 21
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 0.691452876 21

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 -0.1083729 22
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 -0.006104484 22
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.844405895 22
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.792053815 22
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 -0.047293462 22

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 -0.449389939 23
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 -0.561455781 23
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.941924406 23
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.929622542 23
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 -0.481360829 23

EDIT: It's just as apparent that there is a massive rise coming after the dip as well. wink.gif

The "big dip" at the end of the month--that's correlated to the 10/6-10/9 trough, right?

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141006/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100601.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141007/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100700.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141008/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100800.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141009/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100900.gif

Then the "massive rise" is this thing?
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141012/pac00.500fcst.00.2014101202.gif

Also... what are your thoughts on the forecasted persistent troughiness in the GOA... is that part of the new pattern or just a "harmonic" from last year?

Posted by: grace Oct 13 2014, 11:53 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 13 2014, 10:33 PM) *
The "big dip" at the end of the month--that's correlated to the 10/6-10/9 trough, right?

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141006/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100601.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141007/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100700.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141008/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100800.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141009/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100900.gif

Then the "massive rise" is this thing?
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141012/pac00.500fcst.00.2014101202.gif

Also... what are your thoughts on the forecasted persistent troughiness in the GOA... is that part of the new pattern or just a "harmonic" from last year?


I'm certainly not qualified to answer, so I'll leave that to Josh. However, I do want to point out that last September troughiness persisted throughout the month & completely eliminated the very warm sst's that had bubbled up in the GOA in August. But from Mid-Oct on that changed quite a bit which is evident by the return of very warm sst's in GOA by first week of Jan. I know it's a different pattern but just pointing out it can change in a hurry & there are signs in the long-range that it could by months end change from persistent low pressure in GOA to more of a variety.

EDIT: With that said...I just looked at the updated Euro Weeklies & it pretty much keeps it stormy in the GOA. The control run does the same. Of course a persistent low pressure in the GOA is classic for El Nino's.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 14 2014, 06:20 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 13 2014, 10:33 PM) *
The "big dip" at the end of the month--that's correlated to the 10/6-10/9 trough, right?

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141006/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100601.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141007/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100700.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141008/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100800.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141009/pac00.500fcst.00.2014100900.gif


Correct.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 13 2014, 10:33 PM) *
Then the "massive rise" is this thing?
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141012/pac00.500fcst.00.2014101202.gif


Correct.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 13 2014, 10:33 PM) *
Also... what are your thoughts on the forecasted persistent troughiness in the GOA... is that part of the new pattern or just a "harmonic" from last year?


If you look at the CONUS in macro, much like the LRC/HP guys do when they compare maps, if they see a cycle right now (which I know they do) they will be seeing a harmonic of the http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html. If you zoom into (go micro) a specific region, those harmonics become clearer. East coast long-term (60-90) hanging tough, out West not so much.

New pattern? Likley. How "new" though? Possible cause to the change in frequency (shift in long wave), the ISM? Most noticeable change showed up mid September for most regions of the CONUS?

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 14 2014, 09:22 AM

QUOTE(grace @ Oct 13 2014, 11:53 PM) *
I'm certainly not qualified to answer, so I'll leave that to Josh.


I am no expert. This is all "on the job training".

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 14 2014, 12:58 PM

QUOTE(grace @ Oct 14 2014, 12:53 AM) *
I'm certainly not qualified to answer, so I'll leave that to Josh. However, I do want to point out that last September troughiness persisted throughout the month & completely eliminated the very warm sst's that had bubbled up in the GOA in August. But from Mid-Oct on that changed quite a bit which is evident by the return of very warm sst's in GOA by first week of Jan. I know it's a different pattern but just pointing out it can change in a hurry & there are signs in the long-range that it could by months end change from persistent low pressure in GOA to more of a variety.

EDIT: With that said...I just looked at the updated Euro Weeklies & it pretty much keeps it stormy in the GOA. The control run does the same. Of course a persistent low pressure in the GOA is classic for El Nino's.

Yes--I read your post about what happened last August-October. Coincidentally, I was looking at last year's SST in the north Pacific around the time you posted about it. I didn't think to check August 2013 and September 2013. But yeah, I see most models predict positive anomalies taking control of the GOA soon.. it'll be interesting to see if that verifies. I'd imagine that could change the model's outlook for this winter.

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 14 2014, 07:20 AM) *
Correct.
Correct.
If you look at the CONUS in macro, much like the LRC/HP guys do when they compare maps, if they see a cycle right now (which I know they do) they will be seeing a harmonic of the http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html. If you zoom into (go micro) a specific region, those harmonics become clearer. East coast long-term (60-90) hanging tough, out West not so much.

New pattern? Likley. How "new" though? Possible cause to the change in frequency (shift in long wave), the ISM? Most noticeable change showed up mid September for most regions of the CONUS?

I dunno. I meant more like.... is the troughiness in the GOA analogous to any other dates over the past year?

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 14 2014, 02:00 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 13 2014, 09:28 PM) *
Working on the BSR Index. Since we have been discussing the opportunity for some weather at month change I thought I would share the recent correls and upcoming projection. Measuring the max sea level pressure. Looks to be a big dip in the time frame.




Changing the BSR duration a day changes the correl. So I listed a few below. The image above is of 22 days.

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 0.705403788 21
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 0.800236474 21
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.332543483 21
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.473943092 21
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 0.691452876 21

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 -0.1083729 22
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 -0.006104484 22
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.844405895 22
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.792053815 22
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 -0.047293462 22

09/05/2014 09/11/2014 -0.449389939 23
09/12/2014 09/18/2014 -0.561455781 23
09/19/2014 09/25/2014 0.941924406 23
09/26/2014 10/02/2014 0.929622542 23
10/03/2014 10/09/2014 -0.481360829 23

EDIT: It's just as apparent that there is a massive rise coming after the dip as well. wink.gif


Lunch hour shenanigans. Auto discovery BSR duration MaxSLP and then a rate of change MaxSLP.


Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 14 2014, 02:21 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 14 2014, 12:58 PM) *
I dunno. I meant more like.... is the troughiness in the GOA analogous to any other dates over the past year?


I can see them jumping back a few harmonics from today, ~24/48/72 days. Give it a try.

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep/charts

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 14 2014, 04:15 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 14 2014, 03:21 PM) *
I can see them jumping back a few harmonics from today, ~24/48/72 days. Give it a try.

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep/charts

Alright, I see. I didn't find anything that correlates... there were troughs in the GOA every 24 days, but none of the dates had the Bering sea in common.

On a different note... I think I'm starting to understand how the BSR correlates the pattern to the US... but do the upper-level winds also correlate? For example, will a BSR trough that has a very strong LLJ/MLJ translate later to a US trough with similar such characteristics? I'm guessing the answer is yes because of how confident you guys were with the April 27/28 outbreak this year... confident enough to make a meme. tongue.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 14 2014, 06:43 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 14 2014, 04:15 PM) *
Alright, I see. I didn't find anything that correlates... there were troughs in the GOA every 24 days, but none of the dates had the Bering sea in common.


Get to know your harmonics. There are many aspects to time hopping patterns. Many of which we have discussed in detail in this forum throughout the years. One that jumps out at me, in this case, pay attention to the seasonal hop from Oct to early Aug. Also, you didn't mention BSR in your original statement. GOA was the focus. Harmonized back 2 months and there were 3 troughs in said region and that is just one pattern.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 14 2014, 04:15 PM) *
On a different note... I think I'm starting to understand how the BSR correlates the pattern to the US... but do the upper-level winds also correlate? For example, will a BSR trough that has a very strong LLJ/MLJ translate later to a US trough with similar such characteristics? I'm guessing the answer is yes because of how confident you guys were with the April 27/28 outbreak this year... confident enough to make a meme.


I think SLP and 500MB correlate with success.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 14 2014, 06:51 PM

Best chances for snow from Christmas to early Feb? (i.e., January) .. FWIW, February is generally the "snowy" month in these parts.. December and January fairly similar .. January having a 0.4" edge the past 13 years.



Posted by: JDClapper Oct 14 2014, 06:56 PM

But how can one have faith in a forecast, if the tool they are using has poor historical performance?

Not too shabby. wink.gif



Posted by: JDClapper Oct 14 2014, 07:06 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Sep 17 2014, 07:40 PM) *
Why not. smile.gif I updated my "LRC" file through 9/16/14. The chart uses daily average temp as compared to the 30 year average for Williamsport, PA. This goes back nearly a year and is charted out on a 57 day cycle.

A couple fairly strong repeats I can see with the naked eye (through 6 full cycles).

Circle 1 is a noticeable spike in temps quickly followed by a drop then followed by another quick warm-up.
Circle 2 also shows a spike in temps quickly followed by a drop in temps.

Circle 1 this time around is ~10/8 for a rise in temps and a drop around ~10/11 and rise ~10/13.
Circle 2 this time around is ~10/23 for a rise in temps and a drop or evening out shortly after.

*shrugs* This will probably get disrupted.. but was curious to see how the summer panned out in relation to the fall/winter/spring cycle anyways.



Follow-up on the 2 previous ideas of general temp trends.. how'd it go and how is it currently forecast to go?




Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 14 2014, 07:15 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 14 2014, 07:43 PM) *
Get to know your harmonics. There are many aspects to time hopping patterns. Many of which we have discussed in detail in this forum throughout the years. One that jumps out at me, in this case, pay attention to the seasonal hop from Oct to early Aug. Also, you didn't mention BSR in your original statement. GOA was the focus. Harmonized back 2 months and there were 3 troughs in said region and that is just one pattern.

GOA was the focus, but I figured the Bering sea had to match as well. Guess not. smile.gif Thanks

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 15 2014, 06:19 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 14 2014, 06:56 PM) *
But how can one have faith in a forecast, if the tool they are using has poor historical performance?

Not too shabby. wink.gif




You may have spoke too soon. I think the run is over. smile.gif

Edit: And I think I noticed a bug. Thanks!!!

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 15 2014, 06:24 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 14 2014, 07:15 PM) *
GOA was the focus, but I figured the Bering sea had to match as well. Guess not. smile.gif Thanks


Unfortunately it isn't as straight forward as some would make you believe. Map compares to find a pattern is not the best method. Seek data.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 15 2014, 07:09 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 14 2014, 07:06 PM) *
Follow-up on the 2 previous ideas of general temp trends.. how'd it go and how is it currently forecast to go?




32 and 53 showed up on the CONUS heat map this AM. Strongest in the short-term with two sequences. 10-12 and 16-19. I would like to see the long-term gain strength in the next couple months. LRC/HP duration to peek around mid/late December? wink.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 15 2014, 09:59 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 14 2014, 06:51 PM) *
Best chances for snow from Christmas to early Feb? (i.e., January) .. FWIW, February is generally the "snowy" month in these parts.. December and January fairly similar .. January having a 0.4" edge the past 13 years.



ugh....I hope the "spike on Christmas Eve/Day is off but a week or so...but the week long above normal leading up to it doesnt bode well anyways dry.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 15 2014, 02:31 PM

Tracking Typhoon Phanfone from Japan to the U.S.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1626&MediaTypeID=3&ResourceID=104889

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 15 2014, 05:28 PM

From Gary Lezak (http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/)





I assume he's using "cold" relatively. 54 degrees feels cold... but if you look at the fact that the low is also in the 50's, it's not bad.

For example... the forecast for my town. The low is literally sitting on the OV right now... but the overall departures aren't gonna be very negative.... if at all. The average high is 67, average low is 41. Average temp is therefore 54 degrees ((67+41)/2)

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 15 2014, 07:07 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 15 2014, 05:28 PM) *
From Gary Lezak (http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/)





I assume he's using "cold" relatively. 54 degrees feels cold... but if you look at the fact that the low is also in the 50's, it's not bad.

For example... the forecast for my town. The low is literally sitting on the OV right now... but the overall departures aren't gonna be very negative.... if at all. The average high is 67, average low is 41. Average temp is therefore 54 degrees ((67+41)/2)


MCI gets a top 5 all time snowfall this season. smile.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 15 2014, 07:29 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 15 2014, 08:07 PM) *
MCI gets a top 5 all time snowfall this season. smile.gif


IPT is in the mid 40" range with today's "run". biggrin.gif It can stop adjusting now. wink.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/map.html

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 15 2014, 07:30 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 15 2014, 08:07 PM) *
MCI gets a top 5 all time snowfall this season. smile.gif



QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 15 2014, 08:29 PM) *
IPT is in the mid 40" range with today's "run". biggrin.gif It can stop adjusting now. wink.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/map.html

What are these acronyms?

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 15 2014, 07:36 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 15 2014, 08:30 PM) *
What are these acronyms?


IPT is Williamsport, PA..

MCI appears to be Kansas City, if Google search is correct. laugh.gif I didn't know either, and I checked it just a couple days ago too. #MemoryLoss

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 15 2014, 10:36 PM

The BSR has a face on my site finally. Slow and steady. smile.gif
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/index.html

Also, this --> https://twitter.com/TriStatesWx/status/522500771548782593

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 15 2014, 10:41 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 15 2014, 07:29 PM) *
IPT is in the mid 40" range with today's "run". biggrin.gif It can stop adjusting now. wink.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/map.html


Yes. As the standing wave modulates so will the forecast. If you scroll all the way to the bottom of the Table there are monthly and seasonal projections. M1 is scaled to MJO (30-60 days), M2 is scaled to ISO (30-90 days), M3 isn't scaled, one to one 10-90 days. When the ST is dominant M3 may become erratic. But I think that is a good thing. Maybe. LOL.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stationr.html

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 15 2014, 10:42 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 15 2014, 07:30 PM) *
What are these acronyms?


Airports. I fetch observed data from airports as they are usually the most reliable via WU.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 16 2014, 05:16 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 15 2014, 11:36 PM) *
The BSR has a face on my site finally. Slow and steady. smile.gif
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/index.html

Also, this --> https://twitter.com/TriStatesWx/status/522500771548782593


Are we supposed to be able to do anything with the BSR icon yet? It doesn't seem to have a link.. it's just a fancy icon... for me anyways. sad.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 16 2014, 05:17 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 15 2014, 11:41 PM) *
Yes. As the standing wave modulates so will the forecast. If you scroll all the way to the bottom of the Table there are monthly and seasonal projections. M1 is scaled to MJO (30-60 days), M2 is scaled to ISO (30-90 days), M3 isn't scaled, one to one 10-90 days. When the ST is dominant M3 may become erratic. But I think that is a good thing. Maybe. LOL.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stationr.html


Ah ha! Thanks for the tip.. haven't played around enough to see the bottom of those tables wrap it up nicely for me.. here I am adding up the color dots. laugh.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 16 2014, 06:14 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 16 2014, 05:16 AM) *
Are we supposed to be able to do anything with the BSR icon yet? It doesn't seem to have a link.. it's just a fancy icon... for me anyways. sad.gif


If you have visited the site before and you do not clear your browser cache often it is likely you will need to refresh the page to see stuff that has been updated.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 16 2014, 06:15 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 16 2014, 05:17 AM) *
Ah ha! Thanks for the tip.. haven't played around enough to see the bottom of those tables wrap it up nicely for me.. here I am adding up the color dots. laugh.gif


I made things more difficult this year because I am lazy.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 16 2014, 06:38 AM

Is the EC (Region 9) setting the bar for LRC/HP folk? Showing strong returns in short-term and long-term. Standing wave harmonics. smile.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html

Edit: https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/522722821110128641?s=01

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 16 2014, 07:51 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 16 2014, 07:14 AM) *
If you have visited the site before and you do not clear your browser cache often it is likely you will need to refresh the page to see stuff that has been updated.


Ah ha! #Duh :/

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 16 2014, 08:06 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 15 2014, 10:41 PM) *
Yes. As the standing wave modulates so will the forecast. If you scroll all the way to the bottom of the Table there are monthly and seasonal projections. M1 is scaled to MJO (30-60 days), M2 is scaled to ISO (30-90 days), M3 isn't scaled, one to one 10-90 days. When the ST is dominant M3 may become erratic. But I think that is a good thing. Maybe. LOL.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stationr.html



this is good stuff!

Projecting a monster December, so so January and an abismal February. Landing somewhere around average. It would be awesome to get a storm on the 18th and 28th....alittle pre Christmas cheer and hit on the post Christmas depression

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 16 2014, 10:33 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 15 2014, 11:42 PM) *
Airports. I fetch observed data from airports as they are usually the most reliable via WU.

Ah, that's embarrassing.

What did you mean by this though, are you referencing a forecast or observed weather?

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 15 2014, 08:07 PM) *
MCI gets a top 5 all time snowfall this season. smile.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 16 2014, 11:35 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 16 2014, 09:06 AM) *
this is good stuff!

Projecting a monster December, so so January and an abismal February. Landing somewhere around average. It would be awesome to get a storm on the 18th and 28th....alittle pre Christmas cheer and hit on the post Christmas depression


laugh.gif So my father and I aren't the only ones that feel like that post Christmas?

Yes, let it snow... and then snow again. smile.gif

Herman, we're counting on you. wink.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 16 2014, 12:47 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 16 2014, 11:35 AM) *
laugh.gif So my father and I aren't the only ones that feel like that post Christmas?

Yes, let it snow... and then snow again. smile.gif

Herman, we're counting on you. wink.gif

Oh heck no....the build up and happiness it brings the world to is one of a kind only to be haulted back down to reality within a few days to a week. I start dreading post Christmas before Christmas has even come. Prospects of a POST Christmas snowstorm helps immensely haha.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 16 2014, 01:24 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 16 2014, 10:33 AM) *
What did you mean by this though, are you referencing a forecast or observed weather?


Observed weather. WU has a wonderful archival setup.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 16 2014, 01:25 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 16 2014, 11:35 AM) *
Herman, we're counting on you. wink.gif


DISCLAIMER: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite the best attempts to understand the weather patterns the weather predictions might be incorrect.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 16 2014, 02:10 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 16 2014, 02:25 PM) *
DISCLAIMER: It is understood that the weather can change instantly and despite the best attempts to understand the weather patterns the weather predictions might be incorrect.


Haha... nah, I'm just... joshin'... ya.

mellow.gif


Posted by: WeatherMonger Oct 16 2014, 05:59 PM

Are we still looking at end of the month below normals in the midwest. Particularly the 30th through 2nd of November

Taking my beer hunting vacation Nov. 7th- 16th, but have a feeling its going to be warming as it always seems to do on my planned time off laugh.gif,

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 16 2014, 06:01 PM

QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Oct 16 2014, 06:59 PM) *
Are we still looking at end of the month below normals in the midwest. Particularly the 30th through 2nd of November

Taking my beer hunting vacation Nov. 7th- 16th, but have a feeling its going to be warming as it always seems to do on my planned time off laugh.gif,

As you know... I'm new to this, so someone correct me if I'm wrong... but I think I can answer this... I think the answer is yes.

We're looking at this <monster> trough around the end of the month.


http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1909486

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 16 2014, 06:58 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 16 2014, 07:01 PM) *
As you know... I'm new to this, so someone correct me if I'm wrong... but I think I can answer this... I think the answer is yes.

We're looking at this <monster> trough around the end of the month.


http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31848&view=findpost&p=1909486


Also interesting, given some of the model outputs later and late this month too. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 16 2014, 10:22 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 29 2014, 08:26 AM) *
Top ISO/RR correls today 67-68, 32 days.

BSR Oct 1, connects to ~Oct 21 in CONUS.




ISO/RR ~32 days from Oct 21


ISO/RR ~68 days from Oct 21


Easy to guess, another trough in the West around Oct 21?


I see the GFS is picking up on this scenario. It's a little far out at 108, I understand. Which harmonic will represent it best? There are hints of ~68 in the "east" (Region 6-9) yet. wink.gif



Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 16 2014, 10:34 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 16 2014, 06:58 PM) *
Also interesting, given some of the model outputs later and late this month too. smile.gif


The experimental BSR Index shows a progressive pattern in that time frame.



Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html

I am sensing that if the Index is positive, the region will see rising SLP and heights. Just the opposite if it is negative, lowering SLP and heights. We shall see. On a side note, the page for the BSR is crude. It is under construction.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 17 2014, 05:16 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 16 2014, 11:34 PM) *
The experimental BSR Index shows a progressive pattern in that time frame.



Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html

I am sensing that if the Index is positive, the region will see rising SLP and heights. Just the opposite if it is negative, lowering SLP and heights. We shall see. On a side note, the page for the BSR is crude. It is under construction.


How does the index show me it's a progressive pattern? Because of all the ups and downs, or because it stays in between +/- 0.4 most of the time? What about that huge (and quick) dip around 10/27?

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 17 2014, 07:27 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 17 2014, 06:16 AM) *
How does the index show me it's a progressive pattern? Because of all the ups and downs, or because it stays in between +/- 0.4 most of the time? What about that huge (and quick) dip around 10/27?

Seems like that would favor a severe weather event, assuming moisture is allowed to return.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 17 2014, 07:53 AM

Let's say, theoretically, this verifies. Does this translate to a short wave in the Midwest between November ~17-20? Do I have the placement right?




Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 17 2014, 08:49 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 17 2014, 05:16 AM) *
How does the index show me it's a progressive pattern? Because of all the ups and downs, or because it stays in between +/- 0.4 most of the time?


I am measuring the rate of change in SLP in the BSR region. I am not quite sure yet of how to interpret the the severity of the RoC. It's a work in progress. A rapid rise/fall signifies something significant, I am certain. The link below is a quickie on RoC.

http://hotmath.com/hotmath_help/topics/rate-of-change.html

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 17 2014, 05:16 AM) *
What about that huge (and quick) dip around 10/27?


See maps.

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141003/pacw.sfcanal.18.2014100321.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141004/pacw.sfcanal.18.2014100421.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141005/pacw.sfcanal.18.2014100520.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20141006/pacw.sfcanal.18.2014100621.gif

FWIW: Using the auto-discovery BSR duration code, the average BSR duration since 9/1/14 is 22 days. The control bar at the bottom of the chart is the duration, 17-23 days is the range.

Posted by: rainshdw08 Oct 17 2014, 01:43 PM

While I don' have any fancy charts or pics to post like Josh (like them btw!) I do have some observation questions after taking the last hour out of my life and going through this whole thread. lol

From my experience the past several years trying to firgure out weather patterns, its very different from the west coast to the midwest, as I knew it would be. Only in the past 2 years have I been able to sort out some sort of pattern recognization here. When I lived in Washington State weather changed every month, almost like clockwork. Once month, rain rain rain rain, next month all fog every day, next month sunny and dry, net month cold and wet...in the Midwest, it seems to go on a 7 day to 21 day cycle, normally the latter.

There are two things that I've noticed about the "pattern" in the midwest here in past month or so that is fascinating to me...

1. Correct me if i'm wrong but the last storm and the one before that were both cut off lows right? I read here somewhere someone thought they lacked cold air behind them. The first one didn't. Here in the Quad Cities we were within a degree of setting a record cool high, my Davis weather station said it was a record at my house, 49 degrees. I was thinking if this was December or January... If the next storm is anywhere close to a cutoff low...then I think we are on to something. If that sort of pattern pans out, I could see cut off lows affected the midsection of the country. They would start as a warm up and severe weather event followed by a dumping of snow from the deformation zone on the backside of the storm and blizzard conditions if the storm was strong enough. All possibly starting in the Bering Sea some three weeks earlier.

2. The warm dry spells...one before the 4th of October storm lasted like three weeks, one of about 8 days before this last weeks storm and the one taking place now...it started yesterday but will really take hold tomorrow seemingly into sometime next weekend or early next week. Dry spells like these seemingly last a while here.

Seems like were kinda stuck in that pattern with a few storms sprinkled in from time to time. but...that's par for the course, its October. The dry would correlate a bit with some of the winter forecasts I've been seeing for a dry winter for my area at least.

So...if my (1) and (2) add up to what winter will be. To me, that would seem to lead to long dry periods with a few slow moving storms, followed by long dry periods again.

The again...after what i've learned over the past several years about weather patterns, could this still be in the reset period..??

Just of few observation and the questions I ponder over.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 17 2014, 03:54 PM

QUOTE(rainshdw08 @ Oct 17 2014, 02:43 PM) *
While I don' have any fancy charts or pics to post like Josh (like them btw!) I do have some observation questions after taking the last hour out of my life and going through this whole thread. lol

From my experience the past several years trying to firgure out weather patterns, its very different from the west coast to the midwest, as I knew it would be. Only in the past 2 years have I been able to sort out some sort of pattern recognization here. When I lived in Washington State weather changed every month, almost like clockwork. Once month, rain rain rain rain, next month all fog every day, next month sunny and dry, net month cold and wet...in the Midwest, it seems to go on a 7 day to 21 day cycle, normally the latter.

There are two things that I've noticed about the "pattern" in the midwest here in past month or so that is fascinating to me...

1. Correct me if i'm wrong but the last storm and the one before that were both cut off lows right? I read here somewhere someone thought they lacked cold air behind them. The first one didn't. Here in the Quad Cities we were within a degree of setting a record cool high, my Davis weather station said it was a record at my house, 49 degrees. I was thinking if this was December or January... If the next storm is anywhere close to a cutoff low...then I think we are on to something. If that sort of pattern pans out, I could see cut off lows affected the midsection of the country. They would start as a warm up and severe weather event followed by a dumping of snow from the deformation zone on the backside of the storm and blizzard conditions if the storm was strong enough. All possibly starting in the Bering Sea some three weeks earlier.

2. The warm dry spells...one before the 4th of October storm lasted like three weeks, one of about 8 days before this last weeks storm and the one taking place now...it started yesterday but will really take hold tomorrow seemingly into sometime next weekend or early next week. Dry spells like these seemingly last a while here.

Seems like were kinda stuck in that pattern with a few storms sprinkled in from time to time. but...that's par for the course, its October. The dry would correlate a bit with some of the winter forecasts I've been seeing for a dry winter for my area at least.

So...if my (1) and (2) add up to what winter will be. To me, that would seem to lead to long dry periods with a few slow moving storms, followed by long dry periods again.

The again...after what i've learned over the past several years about weather patterns, could this still be in the reset period..??

Just of few observation and the questions I ponder over.

I know what you mean when you say cut-off lows in this context, and I think you already know this, but I hope you don't mind if I correct it anyway... they were both "closed lows", not cut-off lows. Cut-off lows are detached from the jet stream and move independently from the flow of the jet stream. For example... this low in western Texas/Mexico is a cut-off low while the one in the northeast is a closed low.


To your first observation:
The October 3-7 system became closed in the upper Midwest, and that was the one that was associated with the anomalously low AO (bottomed at -4). That spread some crazy anomalies, getting less severe with southern progression. The second closed low was centered mostly over the OV.

The point that you referenced about the "cold air lacking" wasn't referring to the storm system on the 4th... it's obvious that was a freezer. The cold air was lacking in the most recent closed low, which also had a strongly negative AO (-3).


This is the observed weather from CVG (Cincinnati airport); where the low was mostly centered.


From a -3 AO, the lowest anomaly we got was -1. That's just one example... I'm sure other places in the Midwest got lower anomalies... but for a -3 AO, it really wasn't cold.

I agree with your hypothesis though... this is a really dry pattern so far with generally slow moving systems. It looks like there may be a couple nasty ridges in the first half of November. We'll have to wait and see how that is, then see what follows it.

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 17 2014, 05:21 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 17 2014, 07:53 AM) *
Let's say, theoretically, this verifies. Does this translate to a short wave in the Midwest between November ~17-20? Do I have the placement right?





We don't look at it that way. There will be a minor shortwave traveling through the region regardless. You are too far ahead when it comes to timing though. Look for the shortwave to be in the Midwest-OV roughly in the 11th-14th of November.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 17 2014, 06:58 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 17 2014, 06:21 PM) *
We don't look at it that way. There will be a minor shortwave traveling through the region regardless. You are too far ahead when it comes to timing though. Look for the shortwave to be in the Midwest-OV roughly in the 11th-14th of November.

Gotcha. Thanks. Dunno what I was thinking when I said the 17th-20th... must've been too early in the morning for me.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 18 2014, 06:33 AM

Oct 1 - 15 mean temp forecast/actual. Not bad! Appears to have done well on the pattern (cool/cold midwest, warm EC/WC). Yeah, there's some misses. Comes with the territory. I ain't mad.

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/map.html


Oct 16 - 31?


Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 18 2014, 08:47 AM

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/image/_regions.jpg displaying near perfect standing wave harmonics. 16-19, 53-54, and 67-68 day pattern correlation.
Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 18 2014, 08:56 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 18 2014, 06:33 AM) *
Oct 1 - 15 mean temp forecast/actual. Not bad! Appears to have done well on the pattern (cool/cold midwest, warm EC/WC). Yeah, there's some misses. Comes with the territory. I ain't mad.

Oct 16 - 31?



Thanks for playing along. smile.gif

From a code standpoint, I am curious of how much the output changes from now until the end of the month. I want a model that doesn't flip flop. wink.gif

Posted by: Mid Tn. Man Oct 18 2014, 09:17 AM

Am i reading region 7 right,there should a trough into the OV and Tn/V around the 1st week of Nov ?

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 18 2014, 09:50 AM

QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Oct 18 2014, 09:17 AM) *
Am i reading region 7 right,there should a trough into the OV and Tn/V around the 1st week of Nov ?


I could possibly help out. How are you reading it? What external analysis did you perform? What aided in your conclusion?

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 18 2014, 03:32 PM

QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Oct 18 2014, 09:17 AM) *
Am i reading region 7 right,there should a trough into the OV and Tn/V around the 1st week of Nov ?


Each region will have it's micro patterns and cycles. All dependent on how large/small, slow/fast the features move. Example, http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html, while Region 7 shows a 17-18 day. A 17-18 day harmonizes to 34-36 days, while a 31-32 harmonizes to a ~16.

First week of November. Let's pick a day, say the 4th of November and go back in time ~33 days. We get 10/2. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20141002.html. Trough in TN on 10/4.



I have mentioned this http://osnw3isorr.blogspot.com/2014/10/halloween-2014-based-on-bsrisorr.html, centered on Halloween, how the BSR can back this up.




~20 days from ~11/4 (BSR time)


We shall see!

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 18 2014, 03:36 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 18 2014, 06:33 AM) *
Oct 1 - 15 mean temp forecast/actual. Not bad! Appears to have done well on the pattern (cool/cold midwest, warm EC/WC). Yeah, there's some misses. Comes with the territory. I ain't mad.


I need another set of eyes on my code. I cannot figure out why Cincinnati seems to be an odd ball. Is the climate that much different than the rest of IN, and OH? LOL.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 18 2014, 04:42 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 18 2014, 04:36 PM) *
I need another set of eyes on my code. I cannot figure out why Cincinnati seems to be an odd ball. Is the climate that much different than the rest of IN, and OH? LOL.

Technically... Cincinnati is classified as humid subtropical (Cfa), while the rest of Ohio is humid continental (Dfa).


You see that Cincinnati is literally right on the border of Cfa and Dfa... you'd think there wouldn't be a rather distinct difference in the climate compared to Dayton (which is 60 miles north), right? Nah. Dayton usually gets 4-5 more inches of snow per year than Cincinnati. Cincinnati's highs are 2-3 degrees higher than Dayton. If you watch OV winter storm threads, you'll see that the local major highways (I-71, I-70, I-75) are all divisions for snowfall totals. It happens every single time, even local TV meteorologists joke about it.

I live 10 miles closer to Cincinnati than Dayton... an airport 5 miles west of my house (KHAO) recorded 13 days above 90 degrees this year, while Dayton only recorded 3 or 4.

The climate division is real. tongue.gif

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 18 2014, 04:32 PM) *
~20 days from ~11/4 (BSR time)


We shall see!

Hmm.. that looks like a nice short wave for severe weather. 100 knot MLJ and a slight negative tilt.. nice.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 18 2014, 10:00 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 18 2014, 04:42 PM) *
Technically... Cincinnati is classified as humid subtropical (Cfa), while the rest of Ohio is humid continental (Dfa).

You see that Cincinnati is literally right on the border of Cfa and Dfa... you'd think there wouldn't be a rather distinct difference in the climate compared to Dayton (which is 60 miles north), right? Nah. Dayton usually gets 4-5 more inches of snow per year than Cincinnati. Cincinnati's highs are 2-3 degrees higher than Dayton. If you watch OV winter storm threads, you'll see that the local major highways (I-71, I-70, I-75) are all divisions for snowfall totals. It happens every single time, even local TV meteorologists joke about it.

I live 10 miles closer to Cincinnati than Dayton... an airport 5 miles west of my house (KHAO) recorded 13 days above 90 degrees this year, while Dayton only recorded 3 or 4.

The climate division is real. tongue.gif


That's pretty sweet. Born and raised in Green Bay, WI. Been living in Oshkosh, WI since 1996. We are very near the classification line (Dfa/Dfb) as well and there is a noticeable difference from KOSH to KGRB. https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/449933415060475905

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 18 2014, 04:42 PM) *
Hmm.. that looks like a nice short wave for severe weather. 100 knot MLJ and a slight negative tilt.. nice.


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/141002_rpts.html

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 18 2014, 10:18 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 18 2014, 04:36 PM) *
I need another set of eyes on my code. I cannot figure out why Cincinnati seems to be an odd ball. Is the climate that much different than the rest of IN, and OH? LOL.


After reading CV's post, then going back up the charts and seeing the ABOVE average anomalies actually verified while just barely to the north it was below.. yeah, you cannot deny the climate division. laugh.gif

Can't say there's too much differences in weather than the counties around us over this way.. although the warm air can nose up the Susquehanna valley a little too easy for my liking, in the winter (making for more mix/changeover situations). In the summer it's nice though. wink.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 18 2014, 10:47 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 18 2014, 04:32 PM) *
Each region will have it's micro patterns and cycles. All dependent on how large/small, slow/fast the features move. Example, http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/chart.html, while Region 7 shows a 17-18 day. A 17-18 day harmonizes to 34-36 days, while a 31-32 harmonizes to a ~16.

First week of November. Let's pick a day, say the 4th of November and go back in time ~33 days. We get 10/2. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20141002.html. Trough in TN on 10/4.



I have mentioned this http://osnw3isorr.blogspot.com/2014/10/halloween-2014-based-on-bsrisorr.html, centered on Halloween, how the BSR can back this up.




~20 days from ~11/4 (BSR time)


We shall see!


I love that you keep posting this kind of stuff.. for thick people like me, the repeated teaching and review helps get those lightbulb moments going.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 18 2014, 10:51 PM

Josh, you used to have that handy spreadsheet-type page that showed the 500mb analysis for several months in the past.. I was poking around your blog, but it seems you've updated everything to your new models. Do you still have/maintain that other page?

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 18 2014, 11:00 PM

BTW.. just found this map (have to click on the page to enlarge) and maybe I've just overlooked it in the past, but this is great! I've been wondering where-abouts PA would fall in the BSR. (Been out of the house all day, getting my weather fix late in the day, if you haven't noticed laugh.gif )

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html


Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 18 2014, 11:28 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 18 2014, 11:18 PM) *
After reading CV's post, then going back up the charts and seeing the ABOVE average anomalies actually verified while just barely to the north it was below.. yeah, you cannot deny the climate division. laugh.gif

Can't say there's too much differences in weather than the counties around us over this way.. although the warm air can nose up the Susquehanna valley a little too easy for my liking, in the winter (making for more mix/changeover situations). In the summer it's nice though. wink.gif

The Northeast and east coast is interesting. Your average high temps in the summer are similar to Cincinnati's... but I guess it's because the Appalachian mountains block the cold fronts for you, so your rollercoaster rides are a bit flatter.

I found a snow map for Ohio to illustrate my point a bit better.


QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 18 2014, 11:00 PM) *
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/141002_rpts.html

Hmm... but this short wave is far more progressive, weaker, and it doesn't match up with the 500mb map for October 2 or when it was in the Bering sea between September 10-14.

Posted by: MaineJay Oct 19 2014, 07:33 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 18 2014, 09:47 AM) *
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/image/_regions.jpg displaying near perfect standing wave harmonics. 16-19, 53-54, and 67-68 day pattern correlation.
Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html


I'd be tickled pink if this type of scenario played out during the winter months once or twice tongue.gif



http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model#

As I am in region 9, my weather can be quite different from NYC and Williamsport, PA. I know kpk33x asked that you consider Interval, NH to your stations. I don't want to step on toes, nor be a nuisance, but I'd love to see you add IZG (Fryeburg, ME). It's between kpk33x and I, and has an airport. biggrin.gif

Keep up the interesting work, really enjoy your thread.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 19 2014, 07:41 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 18 2014, 10:51 PM) *
Josh, you used to have that handy spreadsheet-type page that showed the 500mb analysis for several months in the past.. I was poking around your blog, but it seems you've updated everything to your new models. Do you still have/maintain that other page?


Are you referring to the "LRC Calendar"? I put that to bed. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 19 2014, 07:43 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 18 2014, 11:00 PM) *
BTW.. just found this map (have to click on the page to enlarge) and maybe I've just overlooked it in the past, but this is great! I've been wondering where-abouts PA would fall in the BSR. (Been out of the house all day, getting my weather fix late in the day, if you haven't noticed laugh.gif )

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html



Travis Bradshaw, a member of the BSR research team at Mizzou, created the overlay. He created one for the Typhoon Rule too. Pretty neat.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 19 2014, 08:20 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 18 2014, 11:28 PM) *
Hmm... but this short wave is far more progressive, weaker, and it doesn't match up with the 500mb map for October 2 or when it was in the Bering sea between September 10-14.


Maps! So you like ~68 day harmonic better? I am sensing it will be a bit stronger and a meld of both once it arrives in the CONUS. We shall see. smile.gif

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140828_rpts.html

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 19 2014, 08:30 AM

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 19 2014, 07:33 AM) *
I'd be tickled pink if this type of scenario played out during the winter months once or twice tongue.gif



http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=GFS&area=NAMER&ps=model#


When the jet was in Summer mode, this scenario was staging it's comeback. ~68 days. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20140814.html

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Oct 19 2014, 07:33 AM) *
As I am in region 9, my weather can be quite different from NYC and Williamsport, PA. I know kpk33x asked that you consider Interval, NH to your stations. I don't want to step on toes, nor be a nuisance, but I'd love to see you add IZG (Fryeburg, ME). It's between kpk33x and I, and has an airport. biggrin.gif

Keep up the interesting work, really enjoy your thread.


This thread is all of ours. I just beat JD to the punch in creating it this year. Who's gonna put a heart next to it in the thread list? LOL. As for integrating stations I am in process with North Conway, NH. KCWN.

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 19 2014, 09:57 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 18 2014, 11:00 PM) *
BTW.. just found this map (have to click on the page to enlarge) and maybe I've just overlooked it in the past, but this is great! I've been wondering where-abouts PA would fall in the BSR. (Been out of the house all day, getting my weather fix late in the day, if you haven't noticed laugh.gif )

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html



Yep...since my photoshop skills are not the greatest, I put out a 'feeler' in the team for one of them to create said maps for general purposes.

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 19 2014, 10:02 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 7 2014, 11:12 PM) *
WPC has it at 972mb in North Central Bering Sea.



We might have to look into this storm more frequently now. wink.gif

The http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html did quite well with it I'd imagine. Now...let's look at the return of it's RR component.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 19 2014, 10:40 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 19 2014, 08:41 AM) *
Are you referring to the "LRC Calendar"? I put that to bed. smile.gif


I am, and pooh.

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 19 2014, 12:40 PM

QUOTE
Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1274 bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The joy of my ability to utilize the Typhoon Rule is that I don’t require typhoon eye candy to accomplish my weekly forecast. On October 22nd we have a system moving through East Asia which will correlate to roughly the 29th or 30th of October here in Central Missouri. Then, a slow and gradual warm up follows there until October 28th when another system comes down the pipe. Unlike the prior storm, we see immediate ridging, and one with moxie at that, which takes over. So…look for a storm around the 5th of November for us and an impressive warm up to follow which matches my call of a mid-November warm up in the Bering Sea section for the past couple of weeks.

The Bering Sea volatile pattern is still in the works. An upper level low over Southeast Russia pumps up a ridge ahead before a system moves through on October 22nd. The rinse and repeat of a ridge following due to the upper level low continues as a piece of the original breaks off and comes back later on the 27th. For Central Missouri, look for a storm on the 11th of November and another on the 16th of November with substantial warming between. Then, another upper level low sets up over Sakhalin Island and throws an even stronger system on the 30th of November for us. The key to remember is warmer than normal temperatures between systems.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 19 2014, 07:37 PM

And we wonder why we are looking at other methods to forecast the weather?

Take note of the GFS and CMC in East Asia!

00z



12z

 

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 19 2014, 09:49 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 19 2014, 10:40 AM) *
I am, and pooh.


LOL. I managed one of those things the past 3 years. It doesn't work. No matter how hard I tried to "see" it. wink.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 19 2014, 09:53 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 19 2014, 07:37 PM) *
And we wonder why we are looking at other methods to forecast the weather?


I integrated the 500s into the http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/index.html. Changed observed data station to KSGF. Also, the 500 numbers from SYA will have scattered missing soundings, as we know. If this works, I will add a regional BSR Index assuming we can find reliable data.

Posted by: MaineJay Oct 20 2014, 05:05 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 19 2014, 09:30 AM) *
When the jet was in Summer mode, this scenario was staging it's comeback. ~68 days. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20140814.html
This thread is all of ours. I just beat JD to the punch in creating it this year. Who's gonna put a heart next to it in the thread list? LOL. As for integrating stations I am in process with North Conway, NH. KCWN.



Sweet, I can certainly dig North Conway, much appreciated!

August 13th saw over 6 inches fall in Portland, ME.

WPC estimates for the next 120 hrs.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 20 2014, 08:44 AM

I did this over there. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1910237

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 20 2014, 07:43 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 20 2014, 09:44 AM) *
I did this over there. http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1910237

I'm liking what I see at CVG. Neat stuff, man.

Sorry if you've already explained/said this... but you say you made this from 'utilizing the natural cycles'. Does this mean BSR/TR/Recurring Rossby waves?

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 20 2014, 08:30 PM

CV, I think I found the answer to your question...

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 10 2014, 03:51 PM) *
I want to mention that I appreciate the interest. Thanks for taking the time to understand it with me. This will only help the process become more easily interpreted by others. In which case the ideas presented can be liberated or ripped apart and buried. smile.gif

And to answer your question. Correct.

The graphs, charts, and predictions are based on three scenarios.

Scenario 1 scales the 10-30 and 60-90 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-60 day MaddenĖJulian oscillation (MJO).

Scenario 2 scales the 10-30 day daily 500mb correlation to the 30-90 day tropical Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).

Scenario 3 does not utilize MJO/ISO scaling. This is a 1 to 1 connection of the mid-latitude Rossby standing wave 10-90 daily 500mb correlation.

Each scenario has three sub scenarios.

Full Blend, which uses all past oscillation outcomes back to 7/1.
Previous 2 Blend, which use the previous two oscillation outcomes.
Previous 1 Blend, which uses the previous oscillation outcome only.

What is displayed in the data (graphs, charts, and predictions) is listed as "members of an ensemble".

M1 is each scenario using the Previous 1 blend.
M2 is each scenario using the Previous 2 blend.
M3 is each scenario using the Full blend.

And then I mean them to make even more of an eye sore.

Doing this has disconnected my data from the LRC/Heady Pattern thought process.



QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 20 2014, 08:43 PM) *
I'm liking what I see at CVG. Neat stuff, man.

Sorry if you've already explained/said this... but you say you made this from 'utilizing the natural cycles'. Does this mean BSR/TR/Recurring Rossby waves?


Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 20 2014, 08:32 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 20 2014, 09:30 PM) *
CV, I think I found the answer to your question...

Oooh--that's very cool! Great work, Josh!

And thanks JD smile.gif

Edit: By the way... the average highs for CVG are a bit off... I recall this spring that you had some average temps off and it resulted in a summer of 2012-like projection. tongue.gif Here's a link to CVG's average temps... http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/daily/CVG:9?climoMonth=1

I know my city's average temps, so if it won't affect the projection... don't worry 'bout it. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 20 2014, 10:13 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 20 2014, 08:32 PM) *
Edit: By the way... the average highs for CVG are a bit off... I recall this spring that you had some average temps off and it resulted in a summer of 2012-like projection. tongue.gif Here's a link to CVG's average temps... http://www.weather.com/weather/wxclimatology/daily/CVG:9?climoMonth=1

I know my city's average temps, so if it won't affect the projection... don't worry 'bout it. smile.gif


Thanks for playing along, I will look into CVG at my next opportunity. I am more finicky than anyone can imagine. Fat fingering climos is not acceptable. I get all my climo from here. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/normals/usnormals.html

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 20 2014, 10:18 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 20 2014, 08:30 PM) *
CV, I think I found the answer to your question...


It was suggested that I do away with (or out weigh with other members) the ISO (S2). The suggestion came from Region 5. I did a test this evening and low and behold, KS is now handsome as ever. wink.gif

EDIT: testing on other regions may take place this week.

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 21 2014, 06:54 AM

<10 minutes from registration!

 

Posted by: idecline Oct 21 2014, 07:03 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 21 2014, 06:54 AM) *
<10 minutes from registration!


rolleyes.gif Good Luck....I give you an "Equal Chance" of success...(That's 'Climate Talk') laugh.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 21 2014, 08:22 AM

QUOTE(idecline @ Oct 21 2014, 07:03 AM) *
rolleyes.gif Good Luck....I give you an "Equal Chance" of success...(That's 'Climate Talk') laugh.gif


Totes Cute. LOL

Verification!! wink.gif



Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html


Posted by: JDClapper Oct 21 2014, 05:47 PM

I made this for myself to make calculating the BSR easier on my fingers... and because I'm weird.

10/19 + ~21 = ~11/9.


Posted by: JDClapper Oct 21 2014, 05:58 PM

Classic "LRC". wink.gif Using 53 day cycle.. which by the way has disappeared from the heat maps for Region 9 the past 3 days after an epic 45 day run...

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Warm ~11/2 - 11/3 period, front moves through with a cooler period, then warmer ~11/12 - 11/13, then cooler until a longer duration warm-up ~11/18? *shrugs* #Fun





Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 21 2014, 07:43 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 21 2014, 05:47 PM) *
I made this for myself to make calculating the BSR easier on my fingers... and because I'm weird.

10/19 + ~21 = ~11/9.



Nice. Not weird. Efficient.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 21 2014, 07:52 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 21 2014, 05:58 PM) *
Classic "LRC". wink.gif Using 53 day cycle.. which by the way has disappeared from the heat maps for Region 9 the past 3 days after an epic 45 day run...

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Warm ~11/2 - 11/3 period, front moves through with a cooler period, then warmer ~11/12 - 11/13, then cooler until a longer duration warm-up ~11/18? *shrugs* #Fun






Does GL even know the length of his cycle yet?

Wow! http://weather.koamtv.com/2014/10/14/tuesday-am-blog-cool-temperatures-will-we-dry-out-plus-what-about-the-long-range-forecast/ (scroll down to "Heady Pattern" I dare you)


Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 21 2014, 08:02 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 20 2014, 08:37 PM) *
Maybe this one is the closest we may get for IPT?

Station 46073 (LLNR 1199) - SOUTHEAST BERING SEA -205NM WNW of Dutch Harbor, AK

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46073

EDIT: The dot on the island would be east of NYC, so for Region 9, maybe that one would actually be best.. the one direct west may be your area Josh.. and the dot reference above may be a good spot for Region 8?

NYC (Region 9?) Station VCVA2 - 9464212 - Village Cove, St. Paul Island, AK
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=vcva2

WI (Region 6?) Station 46035 (LLNR 1198) - CENTRAL BERING SEA - 310 NM North of Adak, AK
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=46035

[attachment=240129:Capture.JPG]


Thanks JDC. I will come back to this.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 21 2014, 08:15 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 21 2014, 08:52 PM) *
Does GL even know the length of his cycle yet?

Wow! http://weather.koamtv.com/2014/10/14/tuesday-am-blog-cool-temperatures-will-we-dry-out-plus-what-about-the-long-range-forecast/ (scroll down to "Heady Pattern" I dare you)


Sooo... the cycle is set but all he knows so far is it's going to be "wet"? Or am I missing something? ohmy.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 21 2014, 08:42 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 21 2014, 08:15 PM) *
Sooo... the cycle is set but all he knows so far is it's going to be "wet"? Or am I missing something? ohmy.gif


I apologize for suggesting (daring) that you read his blog.

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 21 2014, 09:33 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 21 2014, 09:42 PM) *
I apologize for suggesting (daring) that you read his blog.


laugh.gif Yeah. Thanks.

Feeling like I'm on a roll this evening ("nesting" for the upcoming winter), I've started keeping a log of long range forecast using BSR for the CTP region...

Source: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/marfcst.php (500mb, 48 hr 500mb, 96 hr 500 mb)

Filling in the blanks as I go.. here's what I'm seeing via the BSR.

(edit) Dates are approximate.. give or take 1 day either way is safe to assume..

11/9, WNW/NW Flow, Slightly below - Avg Temps.. storm approaching
11/11, NNW/N Flow, Below Avg Temps, storm passed.
11/12, NNW/N Flow, Below Avg Temps, fair
11/13, SW Flow, Above Avg Temps, fair
11/15, W Flow, Near Normal, Shortwave to the south

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 21 2014, 09:47 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 21 2014, 09:33 PM) *
Feeling like I'm on a roll this evening ("nesting" for the upcoming winter), I've started keeping a log of long range forecast using BSR for the CTP region...

Source: http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/marfcst.php (500mb, 48 hr 500mb, 96 hr 500 mb)


OK. Your interest in this BSR thing has mused me. After I get North Conway, NH in the trends, I am gunning for an EC BSR Index. wink.gif

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 21 2014, 09:59 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 21 2014, 10:47 PM) *
OK. Your interest in this BSR thing has mused me. After I get North Conway, NH in the trends, I am gunning for an EC BSR Index. wink.gif


The light-bulb went on and it's burning bright... no turning back now. smile.gif

I will eagerly (and probably impatiently) await your EC BSR Index. laugh.gif

Still waiting for the whole harmonics thing to totally sink in though. I'm thick.

Posted by: The Snowman Oct 22 2014, 06:40 AM

Tom Skilling answering his daily question from viewers, this one looks like an LRC-related question under the surface.
Question was (paraphrasing), does a wet October result in a stormy winter. Skilling used the ten wettest Chicago winters & their following snowfall and might have found a sort of inverse correlation: 8/10 wettest Octobers resulted in below-normal snowfall the following winter. Only 2/10 had above-normal.

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/does-a-wet-october-in-chicago-mean-a-snowy-winter

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 22 2014, 07:16 AM

Ugh. Stupid auto-discovery. Seems to be one day off.



Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 22 2014, 07:17 AM

QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 22 2014, 06:40 AM) *
Tom Skilling answering his daily question from viewers, this one looks like an LRC-related question under the surface.
Question was (paraphrasing), does a wet October result in a stormy winter. Skilling used the ten wettest Chicago winters & their following snowfall and might have found a sort of inverse correlation: 8/10 wettest Octobers resulted in below-normal snowfall the following winter. Only 2/10 had above-normal.

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/does-a-wet-october-in-chicago-mean-a-snowy-winter


That's probably because the LRC is only 80% accurate. So I've read. http://www.weather2020.com/

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 22 2014, 07:24 AM

"The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region"

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~sbf1/papers/Riddle.etal.pdf

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 22 2014, 07:39 AM

QUOTE(The Snowman @ Oct 22 2014, 06:40 AM) *
Tom Skilling answering his daily question from viewers, this one looks like an LRC-related question under the surface.
Question was (paraphrasing), does a wet October result in a stormy winter. Skilling used the ten wettest Chicago winters & their following snowfall and might have found a sort of inverse correlation: 8/10 wettest Octobers resulted in below-normal snowfall the following winter. Only 2/10 had above-normal.

http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/does-a-wet-october-in-chicago-mean-a-snowy-winter


ORD - http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/1415snow.html in http://theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/1415dws.html snow days. This is the ensemble numbers. Per member over http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stationr.html. Still looks like Jan could be an epic snowfall month at ORD. In your time frame (LRC cycle) when does Oct connect to winter?

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 22 2014, 07:51 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 22 2014, 07:39 AM) *
ORD - http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/1415snow.html in http://theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/1415dws.html snow days. This is the ensemble numbers. Per member over http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stationr.html. Still looks like Jan could be an epic snowfall month at ORD. In your time frame (LRC cycle) when does Oct connect to winter?

is the data for the charts/trends locked in or is this still a fluctuating number until a certain point?

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 22 2014, 07:55 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 22 2014, 07:51 AM) *
is the data for the charts/trends locked in or is this still a fluctuating number until a certain point?

Scratch that.....noticed the data changed from last week a little. New question is when/if the data locks in

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 22 2014, 08:05 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 22 2014, 07:55 AM) *
Scratch that.....noticed the data changed from last week a little. New question is when/if the data locks in


Locked in which manner? If you are referring to a sense of the CONUS mid-lat 500mb correlation of recurring patterns in MJO/ISO time, standing wave notation, described specifically to harmonics, and temporal transient waves reflected by the different frequency wavelengths of correlation reflecting the moving pattern, then Yes. Consider all the data on my site locked and loaded. wink.gif

No longer is my stuff related to the GL and DH mind set. That is the LRC and Heady Pattern.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 22 2014, 08:14 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 21 2014, 09:59 PM) *
Still waiting for the whole harmonics thing to totally sink in though. I'm thick.


Not sure how else to reiterate the concept. I will continue to attempt showing maps and data as a crutch. On a side note. I need to begin the verification concept/code for this version of the "model". It is likely I am to the extent of using one data set (500s) to find the dominant frequencies. smile.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 22 2014, 08:34 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 22 2014, 08:05 AM) *
Locked in which manner? If you are referring to a sense of the CONUS mid-lat 500mb correlation of recurring patterns in MJO/ISO time, standing wave notation, described specifically to harmonics, and temporal transient waves reflected by the different frequency wavelengths of correlation reflecting the moving pattern, then Yes. Consider all the data on my site locked and loaded. wink.gif

No longer is my stuff related to the GL and DH mind set. That is the LRC and Heady Pattern.

locked in as in it seems the "snowfall amounts" on the charts vs graphs changes slightly. Also the motion charts

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 22 2014, 09:23 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 22 2014, 08:34 AM) *
locked in as in it seems the "snowfall amounts" on the charts vs graphs changes slightly. Also the motion charts


Indeed. They will change slightly as the correlated frequencies/amplitudes in the recurring Rossby wave train change. The change will not be a compete flip/flop because the wave is harmonic. My 14-15 data is no longer a "lock" as the "cycle length" is not a set or static number like the LRC/HP is.

It fluxes with the fluxes of the flux. wink.gif

Flux Anomalous.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 22 2014, 09:56 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 22 2014, 09:23 AM) *
Indeed. They will change slightly as the correlated frequencies/amplitudes in the recurring Rossby wave train change. The change will not be a compete flip/flop because the wave is harmonic. My 14-15 data is no longer a "lock" as the "cycle length" is not a set or static number like the LRC/HP is.

It fluxes with the fluxes of the flux. wink.gif

Flux Anomalous.

I got it now, thats what I thought, but just wanted to make sure. I pretty much look at the Dec motion chart a couple times a week haha

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 22 2014, 02:37 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 22 2014, 09:14 AM) *
Not sure how else to reiterate the concept. I will continue to attempt showing maps and data as a crutch. On a side note. I need to begin the verification concept/code for this version of the "model". It is likely I am to the extent of using one data set (500s) to find the dominant frequencies. smile.gif


I feel I have a good general understanding.. like that video of the bowling balls on strings, or guitar strings.. good visuals to help understand it. Now, to really "see" it in the weather pattern and the charts you've created, that's my struggle at the moment.

Like the heat maps.. for months those made absolutely no sense to me. Then something you said in a post one day just sunk in, now I see it no problem. It's like the picture that shows a frog AND a horse.. some people only see a frog some only see a horse.. then once you see both, it's like "ahhh!"

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 22 2014, 09:28 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 22 2014, 02:37 PM) *
I feel I have a good general understanding.. like that video of the bowling balls on strings, or guitar strings.. good visuals to help understand it. Now, to really "see" it in the weather pattern and the charts you've created, that's my struggle at the moment.

Like the heat maps.. for months those made absolutely no sense to me. Then something you said in a post one day just sunk in, now I see it no problem. It's like the picture that shows a frog AND a horse.. some people only see a frog some only see a horse.. then once you see both, it's like "ahhh!"


I like these.



Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 22 2014, 10:21 PM

Question to JD or Josh...

Why were you guys so confident in forecasting a tornado outbreak on the 27th/28th of April this year, 3+ weeks in advance?

I recall someone talking about the "trifecta", which led to pretty high confidence in a trough in that time frame... but what made you sure that the ingredients would be there for an outbreak, nonetheless a tornado outbreak?

p.s., when I talk about confidence, I'm referring to this


Looking at OPC's analysis for the first week of April, it didn't really jump out at me. It looks like a boring, slow-moving closed low. Now, anyone with a basic knowledge of severe weather forecasting and the BSR would've been alarmed by what rolled across the Bering sea on April 7, 2011.



I just don't see how you guys were so confident in the 2014 outbreak. However you did it was amazing... that's how you guys and your rules gained my respect.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 23 2014, 08:19 AM

Our correlated station in the BSR region for KSGF has missing sounding data on occasion. When I notice it I fetch it manually. Not sure how long that will last. LOL. There will be hiccups in the 500 plots at times is my point. BOOO.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 24 2014, 09:57 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 23 2014, 08:19 AM) *
Our correlated station in the BSR region for KSGF has missing sounding data on occasion. When I notice it I fetch it manually. Not sure how long that will last. LOL. There will be hiccups in the 500 plots at times is my point. BOOO.


And this - https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/525247791174397954

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 25 2014, 11:50 PM

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-25-2014, JB said that the trough resulting from Ana is going to be what causes this trough to rapidly deepen.



Question: when a Typhoon causes an eastern trough via the Typhoon rule, does that eastern trough become part of the "harmonic"? In other words, since the trough deepened as a direct response of the remnants of Ana, should we expect a trough of this magnitude in 2 months, or whatever the cycle length is?

This is all assuming JB is right about Ana deepening the eastern trough. He makes this claim in the first 3 minutes of his video.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 26 2014, 08:11 AM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 26 2014, 07:47 AM) *
Booo. 10" snow for IPT (with this morning's run).. worse than '11-'12. ohmy.gif

Although.... hmmmm wink.gif laugh.gif

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1890984


Agreed. Great use of analogs.

After this maintenance outage the model is a different beast. I integrated an anticipated anomalous multivariate solution into the MJO/ISO temporal flux correlation algorithm (teehee). After such, the model had a new genesis point and structure. It needed to be run from ground zero, in essence a new beginning.

I am sorry it no longer supports big snows in your region. LOL. It's an experimental idea to use observed weather to project future weather.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 26 2014, 08:22 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 25 2014, 11:50 PM) *
Question: when a Typhoon causes an eastern trough via the Typhoon rule, does that eastern trough become part of the "harmonic"?


I would say yes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/conser.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/therm/entrop.html

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 25 2014, 11:50 PM) *
In other words, since the trough deepened as a direct response of the remnants of Ana, should we expect a trough of this magnitude in 2 months, or whatever the cycle length is?


You'll have to ask Lezak or Heady. I have no idea. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 26 2014, 10:35 AM

Interpreting the BSRi (Bering Sea Rule Index). #workinprogress


Source: http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 26 2014, 10:49 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 21 2014, 06:54 AM) *
<10 minutes from registration!


In your http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1289 on 10/24 you state "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November." via the TR (based off a long range model I assume) AND then state "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based of a short range model I assume).

Same or different energy?

On a side note, the below solutions will begin to show up in the BSRi in a couple days, and match what was discussed above from JD's latest.






Lock it in. Severe threat? What do you think CV?

EDIT: Gotta plug the ISO/RR.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20141012.html (~34 days)

Still not seeing good correlation in the LRC/HP (3/4 or 4/5 harmonic) time frame yet. It's coming though and by mid December I am sure most will be all over how it matches up and mentioning how awesome it is. Currently the WCONUS (region 1-5) is showing hints of it in the http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html, while the ECONUS is showing other dominant frequencies. JDC, are you able to calculate the LRC/HP duration with this data?

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 26 2014, 12:04 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 10:49 AM) *
In your http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1289 on 10/24 you state "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November." via the TR (based off a long range model I assume) AND then state "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based of a short range model I assume).

Same or different energy?


With it being that close and two different time ranges in the corresponding rules...would suggest #patience. wink.gif

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 26 2014, 12:19 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 22 2014, 10:21 PM) *
Question to JD or Josh...

Why were you guys so confident in forecasting a tornado outbreak on the 27th/28th of April this year, 3+ weeks in advance?

I recall someone talking about the "trifecta", which led to pretty high confidence in a trough in that time frame... but what made you sure that the ingredients would be there for an outbreak, nonetheless a tornado outbreak?

p.s., when I talk about confidence, I'm referring to this


Looking at OPC's analysis for the first week of April, it didn't really jump out at me. It looks like a boring, slow-moving closed low. Now, anyone with a basic knowledge of severe weather forecasting and the BSR would've been alarmed by what rolled across the Bering sea on April 7, 2011.



I just don't see how you guys were so confident in the 2014 outbreak. However you did it was amazing... that's how you guys and your rules gained my respect.


Look at the surface reflection...


 

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 26 2014, 12:26 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 26 2014, 12:04 PM) *
With it being that close and two different time ranges in the corresponding rules...would suggest #patience. wink.gif


You are basing the TR on long range models. Seems counter intuitive. BSR is happening now. It will be in the Index in a day or two. When the TR is in range it can be used for verification.

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 26 2014, 12:45 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 12:26 PM) *
You are basing the TR on long range models. Seems counter intuitive. BSR is happening now. It will be in the Index in a day or two. When the TR is in range it can be used for verification.


That's always been the point. As time moves closer, each weekly update fine tunes the forecast and verifies the bsr.

QUOTE
We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!!!

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 26 2014, 01:07 PM

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1292

We did back on 18SEP14 of course! wink.gif

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 26 2014, 02:53 PM

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1297

As far back as October 2nd...

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 26 2014, 07:59 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 09:22 AM) *
I would say yes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/conser.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/therm/entrop.html
You'll have to ask Lezak or Heady. I have no idea. smile.gif

Thanks!

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 26 2014, 01:19 PM) *
Look at the surface reflection...


Where can I find a map like you posted, JD? I tried the one on OPC's site and it turned out like this

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 26 2014, 09:07 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 26 2014, 07:59 PM) *
Thanks!
Where can I find a map like you posted, JD? I tried the one on OPC's site and it turned out like this


http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140408/pacw.sfcanal.00.2014040802.gif

Chart Type Selection> Ocean Analysis Charts> Pacific West Surface Analysis

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 26 2014, 09:10 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 26 2014, 01:07 PM) *
http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1292

We did back on 18SEP14 of course! wink.gif


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 26 2014, 02:53 PM) *
http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1297

As far back as October 2nd...


Kudos to the models for aiding in BSR time/space extension.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 26 2014, 09:11 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 10:07 PM) *
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20140408/pacw.sfcanal.00.2014040802.gif

Chart Type Selection> Ocean Analysis Charts> Pacific West Surface Analysis

Ahh, much better. My neck thanks you

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 27 2014, 08:46 PM

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 26 2014, 07:47 AM) *
Booo. 10" snow for IPT (with this morning's run).. worse than '11-'12. ohmy.gif

Although.... hmmmm wink.gif laugh.gif

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1890984


QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 08:11 AM) *
Agreed. Great use of analogs.

After this maintenance outage the model is a different beast. I integrated an anticipated anomalous multivariate solution into the MJO/ISO temporal flux correlation algorithm (teehee). After such, the model had a new genesis point and structure. It needed to be run from ground zero, in essence a new beginning.

I am sorry it no longer supports big snows in your region. LOL. It's an experimental idea to use observed weather to project future weather.


Seems IPT must be on the cusp of a big snow event. Back in the 40-50 inch range today if I am not hallucinating. Just what I didn't want to take place (flip-flops), but I suppose, as time moves on and the patterns evolve, depending on the dominant harmonic, season snow totals could flip-flop with events that switch from rain to snow and vise versa. smile.gif

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 27 2014, 08:59 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 10:49 AM) *
In your http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1289 on 10/24 you state "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November." via the TR (based off a long range model I assume) AND then state "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based of a short range model I assume).






EDIT: Gotta plug the ISO/RR.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20141012.html (~34 days)


http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stations.html looking for their first hard freeze of the season after that storm.



Posted by: JDClapper Oct 27 2014, 09:03 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 27 2014, 09:46 PM) *
Seems IPT must be on the cusp of a big snow event. Back in the 40-50 inch range today if I am not hallucinating. Just what I didn't want to take place (flip-flops), but I suppose, as time moves on and the patterns evolve, depending on the dominant harmonic, season snow totals could flip-flop with events that switch from rain to snow and vise versa. smile.gif


laugh.gif I did see that earlier today too and it was delicious. Maybe 11/1 will kick us off with a 1" head start. One can hope. wink.gif

It's all good though.. learning. Trying out this BSR forecasting stuff for my area (I have a 11/9 - 11/21 forecast, tweaking it each night, although 11/9 - 11/17 are in the books).. we'll see how OK or terrible I am.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 27 2014, 09:34 PM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 10:49 AM) *
In your http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1289 on 10/24 you state "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November." via the TR (based off a long range model I assume) AND then state "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based of a short range model I assume).






EDIT: Gotta plug the ISO/RR.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20141012.html (~34 days)


QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 27 2014, 08:59 PM) *
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stations.html looking for their first hard freeze of the season after that storm.




And I think the http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/bsr.html shows this too. A large negative change in SLP that basically holds there with minimal slow positive change for a few days following the referenced time frame. On a side note, below is tonights SLP BSRi run. I noticed the 500 hPa is all F'd up. Inconsistent soundings from Shemya. I need to write some babysitting code it would seem. LOL.


Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 28 2014, 07:49 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 26 2014, 10:49 AM) *
In your http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1289 on 10/24 you state "matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November." via the TR (based off a long range model I assume) AND then state "there will be storms during November 14th and 16th" via the BSR (based of a short range model I assume).






EDIT: Gotta plug the ISO/RR.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_500ht_20141012.html (~34 days)


QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 27 2014, 08:59 PM) *
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stations.html looking for their first hard freeze of the season after that storm.






http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/

I disagree. wink.gif



http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stations.html


Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Oct 28 2014, 08:02 AM

what would be the easiest way (and eye appealing) way to go back and see what timeframe correlates with this weekends major trough/cool down?

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 28 2014, 10:13 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 28 2014, 08:02 AM) *
what would be the easiest way (and eye appealing) way to go back and see what timeframe correlates with this weekends major trough/cool down?


Pick your poison. (Most appealing harmonic)
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Then analyze it via the trifecta method. ISO > BSR > TR

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Oct 28 2014, 11:55 AM

QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 28 2014, 08:49 AM) *


http://www.weather2020.com/category/general/

I disagree. wink.gif



http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/stations.html

Amazing what difference a day makes... laugh.gif



Posted by: snow4ever Oct 28 2014, 12:11 PM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 28 2014, 11:55 AM) *
Amazing what difference a day makes... laugh.gif

hahaha.... yea dsm is scrambling too......lows in 20's fri night now....was 30's 2 days ago.....

Posted by: jdrenken Oct 28 2014, 04:13 PM

My apologies for not posting the 24OCT14 LR Disco earlier.

QUOTE
Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=1289 bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

The Typhoon Rule is showing a system move through East Asia on October 26th with ridging following between October 27th and 29th. This will line up with a storm on the 2nd of November with ridging between the 3rd and 6th of November here in Columbia. Then, another system hits East Asia on November 5th and that matches a storm threat for Central Missouri on the 12th of November.

The Bering Sea will continue the progressive pattern that was advertised last week. A system moves through itís forecast area between the 25th and 27th of October. Heights immediately respond with warmth building between another storm at the end of the month and beginning of November. Just like the prior though, ridging comes in like a lion and warms us up. The timeline of events for Central Missouri in response is as such. There will be storms during November 14th and 16th, then warming from November 16th through the 18th with a shortwave between November 19th and 21st and another ridge after November 22nd.

Donít forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as itís being noticed on the blogsphere.

Posted by: OSNW3 Oct 29 2014, 05:02 PM

Standing wave stuff. Kinda neat.
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2awbKQ2DLRE

Posted by: JDClapper Oct 29 2014, 07:42 PM

Having fun with my primitive "LRC" and BSR file and forecast. biggrin.gif

~53 day cycle .. I started with 9/4 b/c that's when 53 first showed up on Josh's glorious heat maps for Region 9. (That's me!) Figured it was a great date to start with. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1415/heatmap.html

Today's stat is an estimate of what IPT will end up as. Then the colored dots further down are my amateur attempts at forecasting via the BSR. Light blue is near normal to slightly below, darker blue is -5 or more below. Pink and red, the converse. The green dots, potential storminess. Give or take a day of course. smile.gif






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