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> Bering Sea Rule, Typhoon Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the BSR/TR/RRWT
OSNW3
post Aug 31 2014, 10:20 AM
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Let's begin with last years (8/1/13-7/31/14) dominant components.

Attached File  iso45.png ( 33.92K ) Number of downloads: 9


75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15

Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up much. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic can prove to be solid guidance as we know the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak.

Attached File  iso44.png ( 196.69K ) Number of downloads: 8


Below is the average of each component 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.

Attached File  iso46.png ( 117.81K ) Number of downloads: 7


What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (8/31/14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.

Attached File  iso42.png ( 24.22K ) Number of downloads: 5


With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 to find the LRC and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics.

But, I haven't looked at maps, anyone seeing this 58-60 or 74-76 day connection? Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day. smile.gif

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 10 2015, 08:30 PM


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jdrenken
post Sep 1 2014, 05:54 PM
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I finally was able to upload the interview from 19AUG14 on the KOPN Freedom Forum radio show.


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OSNW3
post Sep 6 2014, 10:34 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 1 2014, 05:54 PM) *
I finally was able to upload the interview from 19AUG14 on the KOPN Freedom Forum radio show.


Dude. Nice!


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OSNW3
post Sep 6 2014, 10:35 AM
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Short-term is propagating, harmonic hovering ~59 days. Recall July 14th?

Attached File  rr_iso_20140906.png ( 139.68K ) Number of downloads: 6


Attached File  dwm500_test_20140714.gif ( 41.43K ) Number of downloads: 0


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WeatherMonger
post Sep 7 2014, 05:19 PM
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So the system upcoming midweek, would you consider this a part of the 13/14 or 14/15 cycle.
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OSNW3
post Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM
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Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?

Attached File  IMG_20140907_194842.jpg ( 422.41K ) Number of downloads: 1


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The Snowman
post Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM) *
Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?

Attached File  IMG_20140907_194842.jpg ( 422.41K ) Number of downloads: 1

Gnarly.

Will be intriguing to watch for a corresponding TR signal comes up down the road, should this forecast verify.


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OSNW3
post Sep 7 2014, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Sep 7 2014, 05:19 PM) *
So the system upcoming midweek, would you consider this a part of the 13/14 or 14/15 cycle.


In the past I have been able to follow large scale features of a "cycle" back into the previous "cycle" without much effort. For example, take a "signature storm" and ride it back into the previous "cycle". It is difficult for me to imagine that the energy would just disappear without a trace. I would bet that this feature will continue to recur a similar way/shape/form.


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OSNW3
post Sep 7 2014, 08:34 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM) *
Gnarly. Will be intriguing to watch for a corresponding TR signal comes up down the road, should this forecast verify.


Agreed. I am betting it will resemble something like the last 5 days of July. ~60 day harmonic puts it down the last 5 days of September. We shall see.


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grace
post Sep 7 2014, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM) *
Gnarly.

Will be intriguing to watch for a corresponding TR signal comes up down the road, should this forecast verify.


That may cool the N Pacific temporarily a little.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 7 2014, 09:42 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM) *
Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?

Attached File  IMG_20140907_194842.jpg ( 422.41K ) Number of downloads: 1

Is this the correlation to a trough in the east 6 weeks later?
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The Snowman
post Sep 7 2014, 10:06 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Sep 7 2014, 09:34 PM) *
That may cool the N Pacific temporarily a little.

We'll have to see if the storm ends up as strong as projected. If it stays in the Pacific, as the ECMWF seems to indicate after the 120hr image, the NE PAC/GOA shouldn't be affected too much. But yes, certainly something to watch.


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2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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The Snowman
post Sep 7 2014, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 7 2014, 09:42 PM) *
Is this the correlation to a trough in the east 6 weeks later?

The Bering Sea Rule correlates to weather in the US 2.5-3 weeks later.


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2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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jdrenken
post Sep 7 2014, 11:12 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 10:06 PM) *
We'll have to see if the storm ends up as strong as projected. If it stays in the Pacific, as the ECMWF seems to indicate after the 120hr image, the NE PAC/GOA shouldn't be affected too much. But yes, certainly something to watch.


WPC has it at 972mb in North Central Bering Sea.
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Attached File  ak_d6wbg_crop.gif ( 20.47K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 8 2014, 08:19 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 10:21 PM) *
The Bering Sea Rule correlates to weather in the US 2.5-3 weeks later.

potato pototo laugh.gif Not sure where I was getting 6 weeks.....I thought that sounded alittle off in my head
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WeatherMonger
post Sep 8 2014, 09:34 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 08:34 PM) *
Agreed. I am betting it will resemble something like the last 5 days of July. ~60 day harmonic puts it down the last 5 days of September. We shall see.

That was a pretty big moderate risk bust weekend(end of July). Be interesting to see what will happen
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OSNW3
post Sep 8 2014, 09:57 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Sep 8 2014, 09:34 AM) *
That was a pretty big moderate risk bust weekend(end of July). Be interesting to see what will happen


The two raob stations that are often used in data analysis for the BSR are SHEMYA ISLAND AFB AK US and SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL AP MO US. A quick correlation run of the two for the time period I referenced yielded a 0.50072 correlation with a 22 day BSR.

Attached File  bsr1.png ( 69.39K ) Number of downloads: 8


Relating maps is fun too. BSR maps, CONUS maps.

For what it is worth. Today's dominant recurring Rossby components are 17-20 and 33-35 days. 18, 34, 20, 19 days being the top 4. The 3rd harmonic (some like to call it the LRC) would be 54-60 days based on the frequency of 18-20 days.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 8 2014, 09:57 AM


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OSNW3
post Sep 8 2014, 02:31 PM
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The late ISM surge will help reconfigure the current mid-latitude long-term longwave pattern in the NH.


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hbgweather
post Sep 8 2014, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 8 2014, 03:31 PM) *
The late ISM surge will help reconfigure the current mid-latitude long-term longwave pattern in the NH.


please specify to us weather weenie rookies. Thanks.
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The Snowman
post Sep 8 2014, 04:26 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 8 2014, 09:57 AM) *
The two raob stations that are often used in data analysis for the BSR are SHEMYA ISLAND AFB AK US and SPRINGFIELD REGIONAL AP MO US. A quick correlation run of the two for the time period I referenced yielded a 0.50072 correlation with a 22 day BSR.

Attached File  bsr1.png ( 69.39K ) Number of downloads: 8


Relating maps is fun too. BSR maps, CONUS maps.

For what it is worth. Today's dominant recurring Rossby components are 17-20 and 33-35 days. 18, 34, 20, 19 days being the top 4. The 3rd harmonic (some like to call it the LRC) would be 54-60 days based on the frequency of 18-20 days.

I'd bet money you could make a private forecasting company with all the stuff you've got there. Fantastic work as always.


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Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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