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> Bering Sea Rule, Typhoon Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the BSR/TR/RRWT
OSNW3
post Aug 31 2014, 10:20 AM
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Let's begin with last years (8/1/13-7/31/14) dominant components.

Attached File  iso45.png ( 33.92K ) Number of downloads: 9


75-79
49-51
40-42
26-26
14-15

Difficult to imagine that ~57 didn't show up much. The chart below shows how using the dominant harmonic can prove to be solid guidance as we know the short-term, mid-term, and long-term will all have their days in the sun so to speak.

Attached File  iso44.png ( 196.69K ) Number of downloads: 8


Below is the average of each component 10-20, 30-60, and 60-90 days.

Attached File  iso46.png ( 117.81K ) Number of downloads: 7


What about this coming season? 17-18 days are tops this morning (8/31/14). 74-76 days are right behind. However, through August, 58-60 days has been the most dominant. Likely to swerve in the coming weeks.

Attached File  iso42.png ( 24.22K ) Number of downloads: 5


With the long-term likely to cycle negative soon, the short-term should recover and produce the new patterns for the upcoming season. Discussing this with some others, I agree we can use the 74-76 to find the LRC and confirm with the short-term using standing wave harmonics.

But, I haven't looked at maps, anyone seeing this 58-60 or 74-76 day connection? Some suggest taking the current short-term from the current long-term for this years LRC duration. Give or take a day. smile.gif

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 10 2015, 08:30 PM


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Posts in this topic
OSNW3   Bering Sea Rule, Typhoon Rule, and the Recurring Rossby Wave Train   Aug 31 2014, 10:20 AM
jdrenken   I finally was able to upload the interview from 19...   Sep 1 2014, 05:54 PM
OSNW3   QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 1 2014, 05:54 PM) I ...   Sep 6 2014, 10:34 AM
OSNW3   Short-term is propagating, harmonic hovering ~59 d...   Sep 6 2014, 10:35 AM
WeatherMonger   So the system upcoming midweek, would you conside...   Sep 7 2014, 05:19 PM
OSNW3   QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Sep 7 2014, 05:19 P...   Sep 7 2014, 08:24 PM
OSNW3   Great test for the Bering Sea Rule coming up?   Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM
The Snowman   QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM) Great...   Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM
OSNW3   QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM)...   Sep 7 2014, 08:34 PM
WeatherMonger   QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 08:34 PM) Agree...   Sep 8 2014, 09:34 AM
OSNW3   QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Sep 8 2014, 09:34 A...   Sep 8 2014, 09:57 AM
The Snowman   QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 8 2014, 09:57 AM) The t...   Sep 8 2014, 04:26 PM
grace   QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 08:16 PM)...   Sep 7 2014, 09:34 PM
The Snowman   QUOTE(grace @ Sep 7 2014, 09:34 PM) That ...   Sep 7 2014, 10:06 PM
jdrenken   QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 10:06 PM)...   Sep 7 2014, 11:12 PM
ohiobuckeye45   QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 7 2014, 07:54 PM) Great...   Sep 7 2014, 09:42 PM
The Snowman   QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 7 2014, 09:42 P...   Sep 7 2014, 10:21 PM
ohiobuckeye45   QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 7 2014, 10:21 PM)...   Sep 8 2014, 08:19 AM
OSNW3   The late ISM surge will help reconfigure the curre...   Sep 8 2014, 02:31 PM
hbgweather   QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 8 2014, 03:31 PM) The l...   Sep 8 2014, 03:05 PM
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