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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Apr 23 2018, 08:25 PM
Post #261




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...warm conditions are expected...a little sub-tropical streamer of high clouds has drifted over the area...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 699.5K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the WV loop makes it look impressive...high clouds with not much 'lift' to work with should only 'cool' us off.OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 273.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the above shows 'our' ridge building in again...interestingly the main 'high' is still shifted to the west...does this mean that another late season storm ma sneak down the coastline in the next week or so...? unsure.gif


This post has been edited by idecline: Apr 24 2018, 06:01 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 24 2018, 05:58 PM
Post #262




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...with our high pressure still stationed in an unusual position...our little 'warm' front has now formed a 'low' offshore...with no real barrier forming this little 'entity' could cause showers along coast in NorCal/OR this weekend... huh.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 682.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


...this storm formation in the 'eddy' of previous frontal activity seems be an ongoing 'cycle'...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 281.63K ) Number of downloads: 0


...by the weekend another strong low develops north of the Hawaiian Islands...will any steering bring it closer?


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 27 2018, 07:53 PM
Post #263




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...puffy clouds with no real threat of rain today...wrap around showers possible far Northern California/Oregon
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 744.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


...maybe something later into next week?

OPC48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 274.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


...bye


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 3 2018, 08:30 PM
Post #264




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...FOG!...May Gray has arrived just in time... dry.gif

cool and foggy at the coast with inland push of fog and overcast in the overnight...50's coast, 60's near the Bay, and 70's to low 80's inland...a typical SF Bay Area forecast in June and early July...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 805.49K ) Number of downloads: 0


...a tropical band of moisture is trying to be drawn into the mix...it is not in phase with any lift yet...the 48hr OPC forecast shows this energy being drawn into a'cut-off' low that will form off the California coast by Saturday...this should stick around until a surge of energy moving to the north should pick-up this 'storm and drag to the far northern part of our area...no predictions of rain (in May) are imminent...a front to our north may be arriving next week and cool us down again...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 265.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


...see you later if any 'weather' arrives...for now the California weather forecasters go on 'Auto-Pilot'

Attached File  6F553958564F4290A559A3E5C6A6773D.jpg ( 267.24K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/category/weather/

This post has been edited by idecline: May 3 2018, 08:31 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 7 2018, 06:28 PM
Post #265




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rolleyes.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 695.66K ) Number of downloads: 0


...big ridge over California coast...with 'cut-off' energy to our west...still we see 'cycling' lows forming strong storms into the Aleutians/GOA and the high pressure just seems to expand in response... dry.gif
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 284.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


...Spring has 'sprung' in California...and rain may stay away for quite awhile... huh.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: May 7 2018, 06:32 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 16 2018, 07:50 PM
Post #266




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...Spring is here...and it is more like a 'summer' pattern...fog with storm fronts moving by to the north...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 694.8K ) Number of downloads: 0


...a low pressure system is sitting up to our northeast spinning thundershowers and cloudy weather into the Central Valley and into the Sierras...this should slowly slide east...leaving onshore winds with fog the main player for now...one caveat is that our 'high pressure' systems offshore still are behaving oddly...in that they seem to want to be further west than normal, with a west-east orientation...so instead of 'blocking' storms...they are allowing cool air to filter down the California coast...and may let some forms of cloudiness and perhaps rain slide along our coast...the rain that southern California got on Sunday was an oddity...
OPC 96hr;
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 259.02K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the OPC chart shows the 'unusual' orientation of our offshore high...this has been an ongoing 'pattern' the last several years...and IMHO is a result of the change in atmospheric patterns that have contributed to our weather being a little less predictable...with shorter duration of 'blocking' setting up directly over the State...could this be a product of ENSO combined with oceanic patterns that are a little different than we have seen in the 21st century?...let's leave the conjecture about 'causes' to the future for analysis...right now the main thing is that the 'patterns' of weather have changed to a place that is not as familiar as we once thought


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 22 2018, 08:22 PM
Post #267




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...Clear inland during the day with fog lingering along the coast...windy with fog filling up the Bay at night...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 822.4K ) Number of downloads: 0

...an area of low pressure to our north and east is still pushing back side storms into Idaho, Nevada, eastern Oregon, with clouds forming over the Sierras...
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 249.39K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the OPC 48hr shows a little trough of cut-off energy sneaking under our high pressure that is centered well offshore...perhaps with a little bit of energy from the base of the trough to our north...a sprinkle or two late week?


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post May 30 2018, 08:27 PM
Post #268




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...not much going on in California for now...had extensive 'heat wave' in the Bay Area on Monday and Tuesday
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 708.8K ) Number of downloads: 0

...we got some 90's inland, 80's were widespread, with much cooler 60's and 70's closer to the Bay and ocean with a lingering overcast in some areas...much cooler today with a much more persistent wind from the ocean...a little bit of rotation is just to our north about to come ashore along the OR/CA border...a trough is dipping down but even with a hint of moisture to our south it is unlikely to bring any precipitation to our area

...a little rotation from the sub-tropics appears headed for Northern Baja/ far Southern California region...?

OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 254.25K ) Number of downloads: 0


...there doesn't appear to be any moisture in our near future (except for fog and overcast nights and mornings)...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jun 5 2018, 07:31 PM
Post #269




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...um...California 'Spring-Time' weather seems to be here for a while...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 645.06K ) Number of downloads: 0


...flow looks to be somewhat 'zonal' across the North Pacific...with minor 'perturbations' heading across to the north...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 251.33K ) Number of downloads: 0


...looks to be perhaps quite windy along the coast going into the weekend...a ridge seems to be building inland...

This post has been edited by idecline: Jun 5 2018, 07:36 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jun 12 2018, 08:31 PM
Post #270




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...it looks like a bitof warm to hot weather is here for a few days...the WV loop shows a classic 'ridge' of high pressure...and the accompanying dry air (orange color on WV loop) laying directly across our area...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 665.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


...OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 260.1K ) Number of downloads: 0


...fronts are being forced up and over the ridge...and with the former TC Maliksi's remnants heading for Alaska...our high pressure may strengthen and shift a bit to the north by this weekend...maybe a southern bit of moisture can slide up from the remnants of Hurricane Bud off the Baja coast...flooding is quite likely into the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region by the weekend...and tropical moisture may stream into the Gulf Coast area...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jun 13 2018, 08:31 PM
Post #271




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...was still warm to hot in the Bay Area today under a ridge of high pressure...only coastal locations were in the 60's, even San Francisco and Oakland were into the mid-70's today...with 80's nearer the Bay and some 90's in the hotter outlying areas away from the Bay...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 645.49K ) Number of downloads: 0

...a small little bit of convection is offshore to our south...mainly the forecast concerns the soon to be remnants of Hurricane Bud moving into the SouthWest...and how much(and how far north) the remnants of former TC Maliksi out in the NE Pacific pumps up the ridge to our west...we may be caught in a weak area between the high pressing against the strong low and a low forming to our east...hmmm
OPC 72hr:
Attached File  P_72hrsfc.gif ( 261.8K ) Number of downloads: 0

...so a 'low' appears to be sitting over our area entering the weekend...this should cool the area with onshore flow...cooler each day until Monday seems a probable forecast...unless Bud sends a stream of moisture our way... dry.gif


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jun 26 2018, 08:41 PM
Post #272




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...it was a fairly hot weekend...especially on Saturday where some of the hotter inland valleys topped 100 deg.
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 654.9K ) Number of downloads: 0

...a little bit of convection is caught in the counterclockwise flow of our HP...a small storm is to our north riding on the Westerlies...this should cool us as it bounces off our big HP...looks to be a thermal low building by the weekend...lets see the OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 240.29K ) Number of downloads: 0

...we shall see if it gets as hot as last weekend...next week is the 4th of July...traditionally a hot day in NorCal dry.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 9 2018, 06:37 PM
Post #273




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Hot weather to continue...after record temperatures in Southern California over the weekend...hot and dry conditions persist along much of the West Coast and into the Desert SouthWest and Four Corners regions...
Monsoonal activity is already picking up...bringing some relief to areas that have been suffering with drought and very hot temperatures...
Attached File  download__1_.jpg ( 35.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


now for our area...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 678.44K ) Number of downloads: 0


...high pressure is still dominant...although as this thread has pointed out for the last many months...the high pressure center is well offshore and depressed somewhat to the south...a large ridge will build in coming into the weekend as energy off the Pacific presses against the ridge...this may create a little more 'amplitude'... unsure.gif
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 243.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


...another in between situation looks to arrive late week...strong high pressure aloft to our west and thermal trough(s) over the State...we shall see what comes next...?
Attached File  rb.jpg ( 126.55K ) Number of downloads: 0


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 10 2018, 08:26 PM
Post #274




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...hot again today inland...low 90's and higher in the Santa Clara Valley...mid to high 90's in Santa Rosa and east of Livermore...cool to warm along the coast...more coastal fog along the coast overnight...a little cooler?
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 708.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the intense heat and the storms moving by to our north give us a shot at some monsoonal moisture on Thursday into Friday...high to mid-level clouds should dull temperatures a bit...higher humidity will make it feel a bit less temperate...doubtful if any moisture from these clouds...
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 250.4K ) Number of downloads: 0


...looks as if our 3-day on/3-day off fog intrusion pattern will continue...3 days of increasing temps then 3 day decreasing temps...situation 'semi-normal'... huh.gif


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 17 2018, 07:26 PM
Post #275




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...it looks like no more...'El-Lipsis' weather in the near future...it was fun while it lasted...
Attached File  isawvcnepac__1_.gif ( 697.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


.and warmth will continue into the weekend,,,a bit of monsoonal cloudiness may 'cool' the interior valleys after tomorrow...humidity will keep the feeling 'warm to hot'...the coastal areas are in full summer mode...fog.. wink.gif
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 236.95K ) Number of downloads: 0


...a last few "forecasts of folly"...always leaving something to the eye of the beholder...
...nature continues to scoff at man's abilities to predict, prevent, or corral all of it's 'magical' forces...

...as duly noted by the one of the 'giants' of particle Physics...man is part of all this crazy world...please observe it closely...and know that we cannot untimately 'know the unknowable'...but we have a small chance to occasionally 'experience' it... huh.gif


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 23 2018, 07:09 PM
Post #276




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...hot weather ahead...(except for maybe the immediate coastline)...Phoenix, AZ is having 115+ weather!
Attached File  download.jpg ( 35.78K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and with the big clockwise Anti-cyclone (a high pressure system) churning over the four corners region...
...we may actually be under the influence of some monsoonal activity this week...the Sierras are definitely going to be under the gun for big thunderstorms driven by moisture and diurnal heating...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 676.72K ) Number of downloads: 0


...hot weather inland of the Bay Area will not help the Ferguson fire which is at the 'gates' of Yosemite National Park...hopefully Central and Northern California will be spared from the intense heat of this 'ring of fire' regime...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 253.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the OPC map shows Typhoon Wukong well off the coast of Japan on Wednesday morning...will the "Typhoon rule" come into play soon...???

...let's hope the extreme heat in the West does not signify a start to another 'heatwave' Summer...the fire danger in the West is already ramping up as vegetation is drying out quickly...and offshore breezes do not help...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Jul 30 2018, 07:33 PM
Post #277




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...summer pattern in full force...foggy at the coast, burning off late mornings...warm to hot inland afternoons
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 887.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the high pressure system well to our west keeps us in the same pattern for awhile...this seems to be better than a large ridge spanning into the Great Basin, or an extremely warm dome of high pressure coming from the deserts... dry.gif


This post has been edited by idecline: Aug 7 2018, 07:06 PM


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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 7 2018, 07:04 PM
Post #278




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...much cooler in the South Bay today...lingering clouds, along with a bit of smoky air made temps about 15 degrees cooler...San Francisco was in cloudiness almost all day...low 70's around the Bay itself...no big extremes...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 690.6K ) Number of downloads: 0


OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 259.53K ) Number of downloads: 0


...Hector will pass extremely close to the Big Island of Hawaii tomorrow...with soon to be Hurricane Kristy in it's wake...John is also a hurricane closer to the Mexico coastline...3 active tropical cyclones in the North Eastern and Central Pacific...looks to stay active for awhile according to OPC...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Aug 8 2018, 06:24 PM
Post #279




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...cooler again today...but very smoky air from the Mendocino complex fire(s)...bad air quality...cool coast, warmer inland... dry.gif
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 715.09K ) Number of downloads: 0

...here is the view from space...with a water vapor eye...high pressure is still holding sway...Hurricane John will send dangerous waves and rip-currents towards SoCal beaches late week...lots of tropical action to watch.
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.15MB ) Number of downloads: 0

Hurricane John could send some moist air our way...especially if the outlier forecast of Kristy's moisture joining up off the coast...doubtful we get any 'tropical' action in the Bay Area...just not in or climatology realm very often... huh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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