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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
MotownWX
post Jun 8 2018, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 5 2018, 02:01 PM) *


Yet today’s CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show a splash of below-average blue from the central Plains through the Great Lakes.

I know Ventrice’s tweet is referring to the whole month in aggregate. But it just feels that either he (and the Euro model) or the CPC is off-base here.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 8 2018, 08:01 PM
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12z GFS...



18z GFS...



12z Euro



laugh.gif rolleyes.gif


--------------------
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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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NorEaster07
post Jun 10 2018, 08:41 AM
Post #103




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Looking at June's Average Temps on record for BDR...

1. 1960s!? I knew we used to have cooler summers but a whole decade below normal for June?? blink.gif

2. Coldest June was 1982. (1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens?)

3. Hottest June was 2008.

4. Last time below normal was 2015 but barely. Last time well below normal was 2009.

5. Last time staying under 65.6° was 1982

6. 7 of the last 8 June's have been above normal.

Attached File  8abg6rc.jpg ( 177.86K ) Number of downloads: 2
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MaineJay
post Jun 10 2018, 08:52 AM
Post #104




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 10 2018, 09:41 AM) *
Looking at June's Average Temps on record for BDR...

1. 1960s!? I knew we used to have cooler summers but a whole decade below normal for June?? blink.gif

2. Coldest June was 1982. (1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens?)

3. Hottest June was 2008.

4. Last time below normal was 2015 but barely. Last time well below normal was 2009.

5. Last time staying under 65.6° was 1982

6. 7 of the last 8 June's have been above normal.



El Chicón erupted in 1982.


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NorEaster07
post Jun 10 2018, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 10 2018, 08:52 AM) *
El Chicón erupted in 1982.


Whoa. Thanks! I googled 1981 Volcano and 1st one that popped up was helen. I figured lag time so didnt think about checking 1982. One location means nothing though. Wonder how other sites or region as a whole was.
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stretchct
post Jun 11 2018, 07:11 AM
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Euro with weird looking pattern given +NAO - granted I don't have the Euro teles anymore.



Attached File  nao_pna_6_11.PNG ( 35.12K ) Number of downloads: 1


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NorEaster07
post Jun 11 2018, 10:01 AM
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Early season snowfall...or is it late? Or is it normal? So confused. tongue.gif ohmy.gif

https://twitter.com/SnowForecast/status/1006130156711436288

Attached File  Tweet.jpg ( 103.47K ) Number of downloads: 3

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gulfofslides
post Jun 11 2018, 10:55 AM
Post #108




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 11 2018, 10:01 AM) *
Early season snowfall...or is it late? Or is it normal? So confused. tongue.gif ohmy.gif

https://twitter.com/SnowForecast/status/1006130156711436288

Attached File  Tweet.jpg ( 103.47K ) Number of downloads: 3

Tasty rolleyes.gif
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idecline
post Jun 11 2018, 08:16 PM
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...so Tropical systems approaching the CONUS from two(maybe three huh.gif ) directions are going to have there say in the weather across the country in the next week or more... wink.gif
Quote from WPC extended forecast...
QUOTE
Coordination with the Alaska Medium Range desk led to discussion
of the downstream ramifications of the ongoing extratropical
transition of Maliksi offshore Japan, which is expected to lead to
a more amplified flow pattern than usual for mid to late June
across North America...cont.)

OPC 96hr map: (former TC Maliksi looks to be moving into the Aleutians on June 15, 2018)...(Typhoon rule)
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 258.64K ) Number of downloads: 0


CODE
Extended Forecast Discussion...Amended
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Valid 12Z Thu Jun 14 2018 - 12Z Mon Jun 18 2018

...A weakening Bud in the eastern Pacific and an incoming
Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance could lead to wet
weather across the Rockies, northern Plains, upper Midwest, and
western Gulf coast from this weekend into next Monday...

...Pattern Overview...
Coordination with the Alaska Medium Range desk led to discussion
of the downstream ramifications of the ongoing extratropical
transition of Maliksi offshore Japan, which is expected to lead to
a more amplified flow pattern than usual for mid to late June
across North America. As Maliksi swings into Alaska as a robust
system, ridging builds across the eastern Pacific which leads to a
pronounced trough across the West, which leads to a similarly
pronounced ridge/trough couplet across the Mississippi
Valley/western Atlantic respectively. A tropical disturbance
currently in the southwest Caribbean sea is expected to track
northwest into Texas on the south side of the Mississippi Valley
ridge.


...Model Guidance/Predictability Assessment...
The guidance shows reasonable agreement for much of the period.
The biggest issue involves whether or not a closed low in the
western Atlantic retrogrades into the East coast, which only the
operational 00z ECMWF shows beyond day 6/Sunday morning. While
the Canadian is favorable across the western Atlantic late in the
period, its pattern across the West and Midwest leaves a bit to be
desired. Taking that into account, a compromise of the 00z ECMWF,
00z UKMET, 00z GFS, and 00z Canadian were used for the
fronts/pressures/winds through Saturday. From Sunday onward,
phased out the 00z Canadian and 00z ECMWF solutions substituting
the 00z GFS, 00z ECMWF ensemble mean, and 00z NAEFS mean in their
place. This solution led to reasonable continuity. For the
southwest Caribbean tropical disturbance, maintained reasonable
continuity from yesterday but added a surface low as conditions
could become favorable for a convective low in the western Gulf of
Mexico, to the north of an upper level cyclone. See the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for
the latest on its prospects for further development.

For the remainder of the medium range grids, a more even blend of
the ensemble means (leaning more ECMWF ensemble mean) and 00z
GFS/06z GFS solutions was utilized. For the days 4-7 QPF, the
initial template is a blend of the 00z GFS, 06z GFS, 00z ECMWF,
and 12z National Blend of Models. Should the 12z GFS look
reasonable in a couple hours, it could be utilized for the days
4-7 QPF as well.


...Weather Highlights/Hazards...
A weakening surface front and moist air mass will support
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend, especially during the afternoons and evenings, across the
Southeastern states, with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall. A broad trough/area of disturbed weather moving
west-northwest to northwest across the Gulf of Mexico is also
expected to bring widespread rains to portions of TX and LA from
the weekend into early next week. Farther north, a shortwave,
surface low pressure system crossing the northern plains and Upper
Midwest will produce areas of convection with potentially heavy
rainfall. The frontal boundary may slow or stall for a period of
time Sat-Sun from the central plains to the Upper Midwest,
resulting in several days with shower/thunderstorms potential, and
potential flooding threat for some areas.

Moisture associated with Tropical Storm Bud should begin to spread
into the southwestern U.S. and the Rockies by the weekend,
bringing the potential for areas of heavy rainfall. Interactions
with a stationary frontal boundary draped from the Great Basin
into the Central Rockies could lead to an enhancement of heavy
rainfall potential. Some model solutions even suggest the
possibility that the moisture from Bud could spread east into the
central/northern plains, further enhancing heavy rain potential
along the frontal boundary.

Temperatures will also become a bigger story during the next week
as the upper ridge expands across the central U.S. and then drifts
east into the Ohio Valley. High temperature anomalies of +10 to
+18 deg F are expected Thu-Sat across areas from the central
plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley, with highs approaching 100
degrees for some areas. Forecast highs and lows are expected to
approach but fall short of record warm/hot values through the
period. By Sunday and next Monday, the greatest temperature
anomalies will shift a bit east from the Mid-Mississippi Valley
into the Ohio Valley. High dew points in addition to the hot
temperatures will make for dangerous heat index values for some
areas, which would impact urban areas the greatest as they would
receive the double whammy of high afternoon temperatures and
urbanly-induced warm overnight lows.

Roth/Ryan


...and meanwhile Bud is quickly becoming the second strong tropical cyclone in the NEastern Pacific basin...
Attached File  isawvcepac.gif ( 1.17MB ) Number of downloads: 0


...and to add 'fuel to the fire'...
Attached File  download.jpg ( 31.26K ) Number of downloads: 0


...another system will pump energy and moisture into an already volatile and perhaps amplified jet stream flow across the CONUS...here's lookin' at model mayhem for the next two weeks wink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Jun 11 2018, 08:43 PM


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NorEaster07
post Jun 12 2018, 05:24 AM
Post #110




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So far so good this summer! June has been better than May so far. Sunnier, dry, cool.

Check out this mornings temps..(not the lows)

Widespread 40s around north of Baltimore outside the big cities.

30s and possibly frosts in Northern New England

My soil temp is down for 3rd day in a row to Mid May levels (62°).

Attached File  temps3.jpg ( 770.81K ) Number of downloads: 1



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StL weatherjunki...
post Jun 12 2018, 07:46 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 12 2018, 06:24 AM) *
So far so good this summer! June has been better than May so far. Sunnier, dry, cool.

Check out this mornings temps..(not the lows)

Widespread 40s around north of Baltimore outside the big cities.

30s and possibly frosts in Northern New England

My soil temp is down for 3rd day in a row to Mid May levels (62°).

Attached File  temps3.jpg ( 770.81K ) Number of downloads: 1

Very pleasant here last night dews in the mid 50s and temps in the mid 60s. I left the windows open all night smile.gif


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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jdrenken
post Jun 13 2018, 07:47 AM
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Scott Sabol and I exchanged some tweets regarding the disparity in the European +PNA not producing a cooler pattern. The ULL stuck in the West is pumping heights over the Canadian Rockies which gives the impression of that. However, it's weakening and can't move the ECONUS ridge out of the way...not to mention the PNA really doesn't look that impressive (I don't have access to the weather.us charts anymore so I was confused at the start of how he stated it was pretty stout).

It isn't until the Hudson Bay system comes down that our ridge over the East gets shunted to the West yet again promising another NW Flow pattern.

On a side note...be careful how #wxtwitter claims of knowing how, or why, the models are not doing well in the 11-15 day. Everyone knows the long range stinks and biases come out.


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NWOhioChaser
post Jun 13 2018, 08:27 AM
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We've had a pretty wet and muggy June here in Northwest Ohio so far. 4.37" IMBY with a few places hitting 10". 10 of 12 days above 80*
but 7 of those we've had measurable rainfall. It's going to be hot with heat indicies approaching 100* over the weekend. Summer's here.

This post has been edited by NWOhioChaser: Jun 13 2018, 08:48 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 13 2018, 11:27 AM
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QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Jun 13 2018, 09:27 AM) *
We've had a pretty wet and muggy June here in Northwest Ohio so far. 4.37" IMBY with a few places hitting 10". 10 of 12 days above 80*
but 7 of those we've had measurable rainfall. It's going to be hot with heat indicies approaching 100* over the weekend. Summer's here.

Has it not been? laugh.gif It's mid-June and I've already seen 4 days >90 degrees. Last year only had 11 days total, with the last one being in late September.

Forecast is calling for 4 of the next 7 days being above 90 degrees, with another day in the upper 80's. Highest forecast temp is 95 degrees. That'll be fun.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 13 2018, 11:29 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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bingobobbo
post Jun 13 2018, 02:24 PM
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I plan to enjoy tomorrow and much of Friday because might be the last truly cool days/nights we have for a while. Our late-spring conditions were too good to last.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 13 2018, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 13 2018, 12:27 PM) *
Has it not been? laugh.gif It's mid-June and I've already seen 4 days >90 degrees. Last year only had 11 days total, with the last one being in late September.

Forecast is calling for 4 of the next 7 days being above 90 degrees, with another day in the upper 80's. Highest forecast temp is 95 degrees. That'll be fun.


Ha we look to have an impressive 2 day stretch here that pushes at least one of those into 90s before we get another front coming in the area tuesday, depending on when may bring in some warmer temps. Saturday is a little bit of a toss as we get warm air pushing in aloft but surface might not react quite like we would expect although downsloping may help that situation hey who knows maybe another mini heat wave situation again.

No worries though in a week im heading out west so im sure ill be dealing with the heat out in vegas and cali until I get to the Pac nw then hopefully it cools off. Ill take dps in the 30's and 40's though over 70's any day.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 14 2018, 01:47 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 13 2018, 11:53 PM) *
Ha we look to have an impressive 2 day stretch here that pushes at least one of those into 90s before we get another front coming in the area tuesday, depending on when may bring in some warmer temps. Saturday is a little bit of a toss as we get warm air pushing in aloft but surface might not react quite like we would expect although downsloping may help that situation hey who knows maybe another mini heat wave situation again.

No worries though in a week im heading out west so im sure ill be dealing with the heat out in vegas and cali until I get to the Pac nw then hopefully it cools off. Ill take dps in the 30's and 40's though over 70's any day.

It really hasn't been that humid yet this year. I guess that makes sense with how high the highs have been, but I can only remember a few times so far where I noticed the humidity.

Looking at possibly record breaking maximum lows this weekend though. It'll get down to the coolest high temp we've seen this month (mid-70's).


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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MotownWX
post Jun 14 2018, 10:14 AM
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Summer has been nice 'round here, no complaints.

Although if I had one selfish gripe, it'd be the worst weather days have tended to fall on weekends, and this coming one will be no different.
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Ahoff
post Jun 14 2018, 05:43 PM
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QUOTE(MotownWX @ Jun 14 2018, 11:14 AM) *
Summer has been nice 'round here, no complaints.

Although if I had one selfish gripe, it'd be the worst weather days have tended to fall on weekends, and this coming one will be no different.


Really? Because it's going to be a beautiful weekend here in Pittsburgh. What are you guys getting.
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bradjl2009
post Jun 14 2018, 09:58 PM
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QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jun 14 2018, 05:43 PM) *
Really? Because it's going to be a beautiful weekend here in Pittsburgh. What are you guys getting.

I wouldn't call near 90 beautiful but that's just me.
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