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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
kpk33x
post Apr 13 2018, 12:04 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 12 2018, 02:33 PM) *
Not always true. There's this thing called differential advection which happens when winds throughout the atmosphere change direction with height... called (vertical) wind shear... and it advects airmasses from different origins.

If northwesterly flow aloft always meant cold air at the surface, you'd be assuming that the winds never change direction with height. This would also mean storms can't rotate so supercells and tornadoes are impossible.

I was talking about northwesterly flow associated with a ring of fire. That means a central US ridge with a surface high that brings southerly/southwesterly flow under northwesterly flow aloft.

If you see this pattern, what do you think? Northwesterly flow aloft from the upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Has to be cold, right?



On that day, temps soared into the 90's all across the OV. At this point in time, West Virginia was in the 90's and was about to get hit by one of the most extreme derecho events in history. This was June 29, 2012.

The summers of 2011 and 2012 were both northwesterly flow summers for the OV. I can tell you those weren't cold summers.


I'm kind of in this mode of thinking. The dryness/heat in the southern plains has been very persistent and it reminds me of the persistent western ridge of a couple years ago that then resulted in a downstream trough and severe winters in the mid Atlantic and northeast.

But if you get a -NAO pushing southwestward against a persistent hot/dry ridge, I can see a ring of fire or "battle zone" scenario maybe over the Lakes or Ohio Valley. If it is a strong -NAO then you may end up with northwesterly flow as mentioned above. I think in my research that this was a persistent pattern of the 1960s which resulted in a persistent, low level drought in the NE as the storm track was shunted to the south.

If there is a +NAO though wouldn't the hot/dry from the southern plains just spread north and east, to the Apps or even all the way to New England?

I'm still in the too early to decide camp, but if nothing breaks that drought in west Texas/OK/Kansas I start pushing my chips toward the Plains ridge scenario more and more.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 7

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 15 2018, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 13 2018, 09:52 AM) *
Great explanation.

How does this stack up against the historically cool summers of 2009 & 2014? I believe July 2009 was in the top ten coolest for my area.

2009 and July 2014 had a trough over the Great Lakes, which is why they were so cool. Yes, that means there was northwesterly flow, but that was a cold northwesterly flow like you'd see in the winter.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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alczervik
post Apr 16 2018, 08:17 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 15 2018, 09:24 PM) *
2009 and July 2014 had a trough over the Great Lakes, which is why they were so cool. Yes, that means there was northwesterly flow, but that was a cold northwesterly flow like you'd see in the winter.


So this summer when the western ridge takes over and does so in high amplitude fashion, we (GL/UMW) will be right back where we are now: 5-10 degrees below normal on 80% of the days.
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gulfofslides
post Apr 16 2018, 10:10 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 16 2018, 08:17 AM) *
So this summer when the western ridge takes over and does so in high amplitude fashion, we (GL/UMW) will be right back where we are now: 5-10 degrees below normal on 80% of the days.

El nino will be coming on this summer, thought it will be above avg temps blink.gif
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MotownWX
post Apr 16 2018, 11:07 AM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 16 2018, 09:17 AM) *
So this summer when the western ridge takes over and does so in high amplitude fashion, we (GL/UMW) will be right back where we are now: 5-10 degrees below normal on 80% of the days.


Actually, summer would be the only season where I wouldn't be too bothered by 5-10 degrees below normal 80% of the time.

Unless it rains every weekend, any temp pattern will do. I'm fine with 70s (pleasantly mild), 80s (normal), or 90s (above normal). Although I remember wearing sweatshirts watching fireworks at Greenfield Village on July 4, 2009. I'd rather it not be SO cool where I need to be within reach of light jackets all summer long.

This post has been edited by MotownWX: Apr 16 2018, 11:09 AM
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MotownWX
post Apr 16 2018, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Apr 16 2018, 11:10 AM) *
El nino will be coming on this summer, thought it will be above avg temps blink.gif


I haven't heard of this. I thought it was just going to neutral?
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alczervik
post Apr 16 2018, 12:13 PM
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QUOTE(MotownWX @ Apr 16 2018, 12:07 PM) *
Actually, summer would be the only season where I wouldn't be too bothered by 5-10 degrees below normal 80% of the time.

Unless it rains every weekend, any temp pattern will do. I'm fine with 70s (pleasantly mild), 80s (normal), or 90s (above normal). Although I remember wearing sweatshirts watching fireworks at Greenfield Village on July 4, 2009. I'd rather it not be SO cool where I need to be within reach of light jackets all summer long.


I remember many times leaving Stoney Creek, Pontiac Lake, or Tree Farm in Novi after mountain biking and having to throw on a hoodie to keep warm. It only warmed up the second week of August for 2-3 weeks before heading back into the crapper for September. Easily on of the worst summer seasons of my life besides 1992.

Interesting note: I remember sometime in the 3rd week of June we had a pretty nasty storm (not sure if it was a derecho) roll through and then it was cold until August. I believe mentioned this before somewhere.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 17 2018, 03:59 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Apr 16 2018, 11:10 AM) *
El nino will be coming on this summer, thought it will be above avg temps blink.gif


Oceanic conditions look to be that way but atmospheric will lag a bit before or if it even does change over for that period of possible nino like conditions. Still a little too early to know if it will indeed evolve into a nino or if we just have the warmer conditions and go warm neutral in time.

Will be interesting to see how it progresses been an interesting time already.


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OSNW3
post Apr 18 2018, 12:38 PM
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Is the RRWT expanded Bering Sea Rule suggesting potential tropical activity for the Southeast CONUS to start June?

Attached File  untitled.gif ( 127.97K ) Number of downloads: 12

http://www.consonantchaos.com

Edit. Click to animate?

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Apr 18 2018, 12:38 PM


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so_whats_happeni...
post Apr 18 2018, 02:22 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Apr 18 2018, 01:38 PM) *
Is the RRWT expanded Bering Sea Rule suggesting potential tropical activity for the Southeast CONUS to start June?

Attached File  untitled.gif ( 127.97K ) Number of downloads: 12

http://www.consonantchaos.com

Edit. Click to animate?


Wouldnt doubt GOM and Caribbean region getting into the action I would be impressed if the SE got into the action that early, maybe another situation where SC region gets in under another ULL as the ridging expands across the north country (our regions) and traps the ULL down there sounds like a nina like pattern where SE starts to get wet and north warms.


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OSNW3
post Apr 20 2018, 06:30 AM
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The latest RRWT extension of the BSR is advertising a potentially chilly start to astronomical summer for the CONUS Midwest.



http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-all.html


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phils1
post Apr 20 2018, 09:35 AM
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Thoughts on the upcoming tropical season and Mid-Atlantic summer outlook:

• Near normal tropical season in the Atlantic Basin
• La Nina to transition into El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
• Mixed signals in the Atlantic Basin with colder-than-normal water off of Africa’s west coast and warmer-than-normal in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean
• US again vulnerable to “home grown” hits
• Analog year comparisons support the notion of a near normal tropical season in the Atlantic Basin
• Analog year comparisons suggest near normal to slightly below-normal temperatures this summer in the Mid-Atlantic region and near normal to slightly above-normal precipitation amounts

https://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2018/4/...ropical-outlook
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Attached File  1_SST.gif ( 109.56K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
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alczervik
post Apr 20 2018, 11:08 AM
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Well the weather channel (taken with a grain of salt) has much of the midwest below normal for May/June/July.

2009/2014 all over again.

ugh
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MotownWX
post Apr 20 2018, 12:54 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 20 2018, 12:08 PM) *
Well the weather channel (taken with a grain of salt) has much of the midwest below normal for May/June/July.

2009/2014 all over again.

ugh


For MI: I don't like the look of that May map, but I'm fine with June (near/slightly above) and July (near/slightly below).

I think by now, every forecaster just knows to automatically peg California and the Southwest as above normal, regardless of season. You've got a 90%+ chance of being correct.
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OSNW3
post Apr 20 2018, 02:38 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 20 2018, 11:08 AM) *
Well the weather channel (taken with a grain of salt) has much of the midwest below normal for May/June/July.

2009/2014 all over again.

ugh


Similar to a recent RRWT forward month and season temperature anomaly outlook.

May


May, June, July


http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-all.html


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OSNW3
post Apr 20 2018, 02:47 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Apr 18 2018, 02:22 PM) *
Wouldnt doubt GOM and Caribbean region getting into the action I would be impressed if the SE got into the action that early, maybe another situation where SC region gets in under another ULL as the ridging expands across the north country (our regions) and traps the ULL down there sounds like a nina like pattern where SE starts to get wet and north warms.


The 'cyclic' frequency of the RRWT (BeOP) is selecting analogs from late August through September. Tropical activity into the US was on the increase during that time. Admittedly, the BeOP is highly dynamic and the component that can flip one model run to the next. smile.gif


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Mid Tn. Man
post Apr 21 2018, 08:37 PM
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The BSR map around the 3rd are fairly decent,right now,The frontogenesis on the Euro shows a boundary around into the OV,May1.The problem though with this is the split flow.The southern jet looks so suppressed even into the GOM while the North is North.

I kinda like the period into the 2nd week of May even though the RRWT looks cold,we'll see.But if you look at the OLR.This shows an active period into the 2nd week of May.With a KW/MJO into the eastern Pac.The Dashboard is all over this time frame.


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Attached File  111.png ( 536.89K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 21 2018, 08:50 PM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Apr 21 2018, 09:37 PM) *
The BSR map around the 3rd are fairly decent,right now,The frontogenesis on the Euro shows a boundary around into the OV,May1.The problem though with this is the split flow.The southern jet looks so suppressed even into the GOM while the North is North.

I kinda like the period into the 2nd week of May even though the RRWT looks cold,we'll see.But if you look at the OLR.This shows an active period into the 2nd week of May.With a KW/MJO into the eastern Pac.The Dashboard is all over this time frame.

First half of May looks great with BSR. Yeah, EPS looks bad... but I have hope that will change. Plus, it's finally a solid warm pattern... certainly a step in the right direction.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 21 2018, 08:53 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Apr 21 2018, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 21 2018, 08:50 PM) *
First half of May looks great with BSR. Yeah, EPS looks bad... but I have hope that will change. Plus, it's finally a solid warm pattern... certainly a step in the right direction.


Unique pattern though.A couple days ago Nashville had it's all-time low/high temps go up 50 degrees which is tops in the last decade.Attached File  Spring_Summer_2018_Observations___Page_4___Tennessee_Valley___American_Weather.png ( 24.33K ) Number of downloads: 0



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OSNW3
post Apr 23 2018, 06:49 PM
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I have seen this signal in years past. Buyer beware?

6/1-12 in 5 day increments
Attached File  summer6112.gif ( 392.76K ) Number of downloads: 19


Click to animate?


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