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> Long Range Summer 2018 Outlooks and Discussions, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends, excitement, and mor
NorEaster07
post Apr 24 2018, 06:08 AM
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Paulie P says the the Official Summer forecast will come out next week from Accuweather..

Here's a snippet of his latest blog..

QUOTE
Saturday, April 21, 2018 6:10:16 AM

May through July outlook driven by dryness in the Southwest and still a slow retreat of the upper jet stream

Summer forecast - June through August will be out next week.

• Northeast, mid-Atlantic, eastern Ohio Valley– Across New England, mid-Atlantic coast and upstate New York state, overall temperatures will average near to slightly above normal; it will be wetter and cooler across eastern Ohio Valley and the central Appalachians and most of the mid-Atlantic. Some severe weather, but a below-normal season expected; cooling energy near average (moderate confidence).

• Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Gulf Coast– Central and southern peninsula of Florida still rather dry in May, but turns wetter late May into June, drought should end by midsummer, potential early tropical hits along the Gulf coast, large area of above-normal rainfall Gulf states into the Tennessee Valley and extending east to the Carolinas; temperatures will not be far from average, but high humidity will lead to slightly higher energy usage, and this region is still a flood and severe weather risk (moderate to high confidence).

• Western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains- A slow transition into spring and now a slow transition into summer for this region. For most of this region, only short-term hot periods with exception toward the Foothills and western Plains, severe weather high impact central Plains, mid- to upper Mississippi Valley and Midwest, drier and hotter in the northern Plains in July (higher risk area as far as temperatures – moderate-to-high confidence precipitation).

• Southern Plains– Dry conditions in the southwestern Plains and lower Texas Valley can lead to high heat in long stretches, eastern areas more of a risky forecast as far as temperatures, leaning near to slightly above, precipitation generally normal to slightly below, but the tropics can dictate temperature outcome - drier hotter, wetter, cooler (high confidence western areas, low confidence east).

• Southwest–Dry and hot, significant long periods of high heat, fire danger high; rainfall increases in July, especially interior Southwest and central Rockies, watch for flash flooding mid- and late season in these areas (moderate-to-high confidence).

• Northwest to Rockies–Transition from wet/snowy and cool late spring/early summer to hot and drier mid- to late summer drought can develop mid- to late summer east of Cascades and increased fire threat late summer into fall, above-normal temperatures can stretch across north-central Rockies into the northern Plains (moderate confidence, but transition depends on water temperature change off the Northwest coast this summer).
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alczervik
post Apr 25 2018, 11:06 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 24 2018, 07:08 AM) *
Paulie P says the the Official Summer forecast will come out next week from Accuweather..

Here's a snippet of his latest blog..


I have said all along that the mid-west was just not going to be super warm this year. Too cold in later winter/early spring.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 4 2018, 07:51 PM
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Nice. I like this outlook.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...plains/70004802

QUOTE
Severe weather to threaten the western Ohio Valley, Midwest, central/northern Plains

Short-term periods of high heat will blast the region in June, though temperatures will bounce up and down throughout the summer.

Severe weather will also target the first month of the season.

“June, I think, will be the month for the severe weather in the northern Plains,” Pastelok said. “It could linger a bit into July, but it will take a break before coming back in August.”


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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OSNW3
post May 6 2018, 08:14 AM
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Recent RRWT Northern Hemisphere Summer temperature and precipitation outlook.



http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-all.html


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 12 2018, 09:40 PM
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Nice up and down pattern for the very end of May into the first few days of June.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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OSNW3
post May 17 2018, 01:15 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 12 2018, 09:40 PM) *
Nice up and down pattern for the very end of May into the first few days of June.



A few severe days from early April and early May are scheduled to recur in this time frame. The 21-25 day RRWT signals this...



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ClicheVortex2014
post May 22 2018, 05:30 PM
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Can't wait to... hopefully... see more of this pattern.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 23 2018, 12:32 AM
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Well that sure was a fun GFS run. Focus on Iowa.






How about 116 degrees in north-central TX? Just 4 degrees shy of tying the state all-time record.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 23 2018, 12:42 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post May 23 2018, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 23 2018, 01:32 AM) *
Well that sure was a fun GFS run. Focus on Iowa.






How about 116 degrees in north-central TX? Just 4 degrees shy of tying the state all-time record.


This is kinda crazy to see havent had a summer like this in quite awhile that we get bouts of warm and thats about it really other then that rain and cool. Im use to once we get the heat to build in it stays and have a cooldown day where we drop into the 70s and lower dews and then right back into 80s then 90s.


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 23 2018, 08:19 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 23 2018, 11:15 AM) *
This is kinda crazy to see havent had a summer like this in quite awhile that we get bouts of warm and thats about it really other then that rain and cool. Im use to once we get the heat to build in it stays and have a cooldown day where we drop into the 70s and lower dews and then right back into 80s then 90s.

I'm cautious about any season that seems to start early. Early summer, early winter. It's hard to get a season that's essentially the same pattern for all 3 months.

My area has already been seeing ~85 degree highs for most of the past 2 weeks, which is typical for late June, early July. Next week we're going to step it up and take it into the upper 80's, which is a couple degrees above the average for the middle of summer.

It's worth noting that, in 2012, May was well above average for most of the country just like this year. Then the pattern changed briefly in the first 2.5 weeks of June, and then we got torched. So even in our warmest warm seasons, we had a relatively prolonged period of below average temps. So I'm expecting the pattern to break at some point, but what matters is whether or not we return to this pattern. Think of it like winter... it's rare we see all 3 months below average. If we start with a cold December, most people (e.g., not people like JB) most of the time we become worried about it being a front loaded winter.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ValpoSnow
post May 23 2018, 09:57 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 23 2018, 08:19 PM) *
I'm cautious about any season that seems to start early. Early summer, early winter. It's hard to get a season that's essentially the same pattern for all 3 months.

My area has already been seeing ~85 degree highs for most of the past 2 weeks, which is typical for late June, early July. Next week we're going to step it up and take it into the upper 80's, which is a couple degrees above the average for the middle of summer.

It's worth noting that, in 2012, May was well above average for most of the country just like this year. Then the pattern changed briefly in the first 2.5 weeks of June, and then we got torched. So even in our warmest warm seasons, we had a relatively prolonged period of below average temps. So I'm expecting the pattern to break at some point, but what matters is whether or not we return to this pattern. Think of it like winter... it's rare we see all 3 months below average. If we start with a cold December, most people (e.g., not people like JB) most of the time we become worried about it being a front loaded winter.


I can tolerate the current heat if it means July and August won't be torches, but I won't hold my breath.
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bingobobbo
post May 24 2018, 02:40 PM
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I am hoping that this year will be like 1975 (one of our all-time warmest Mays, which had followed our only April colder than this year), followed by sultry weather through early August. After that, however, we went straight into a fall pattern after Aug. 5 and were chilly for about two months. I hope it isn't like 1991 (warm and sultry through October, except for two weeks in September). 2007 was a front and back-loaded summer--but surprisingly, cool in July and parts of August).


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so_whats_happeni...
post May 24 2018, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 23 2018, 09:19 PM) *
I'm cautious about any season that seems to start early. Early summer, early winter. It's hard to get a season that's essentially the same pattern for all 3 months.

My area has already been seeing ~85 degree highs for most of the past 2 weeks, which is typical for late June, early July. Next week we're going to step it up and take it into the upper 80's, which is a couple degrees above the average for the middle of summer.

It's worth noting that, in 2012, May was well above average for most of the country just like this year. Then the pattern changed briefly in the first 2.5 weeks of June, and then we got torched. So even in our warmest warm seasons, we had a relatively prolonged period of below average temps. So I'm expecting the pattern to break at some point, but what matters is whether or not we return to this pattern. Think of it like winter... it's rare we see all 3 months below average. If we start with a cold December, most people (e.g., not people like JB) most of the time we become worried about it being a front loaded winter.



Yea I hear that we have just been getting spurts of warmth across the area most has stayed from about DC/BMORE region on south over most of the past month or so. Hence our storm activity and rains across the area. Seems like there is some pretty serious reoccurring troughing over eastern Canada and southern Greenland every so often we have even popped a 50/50 not as potent as say in the middle of winter but just very different for this time of year. Probably honestly has to do with how the drought formed over the south central plains and parts of the SW region. Popping ridging over there which can help explain the reduced storm activity over the plains. It shouldnt persist but the way patterns have evolved this year im hesitant in that idea, but reluctant if it doesnt change I dont mind the spurts of heat just not all the rain. That aspect kind of reminds me of 2011 when we had a fairly wet short period of time across VA up to SNY gave us an earthquake too!


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Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 24 2018, 08:53 PM
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Oooh that ridge. Ideal pattern for a ring of fire.



110's for the southern Plains, 100's creeping into the lower Midwest. That should accelerate the drought a bit. Maybe a bit of a feedback loop starting here.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 24 2018, 08:59 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ILStormwatcher
post May 24 2018, 10:43 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 24 2018, 08:53 PM) *
Oooh that ridge. Ideal pattern for a ring of fire.



110's for the southern Plains, 100's creeping into the lower Midwest. That should accelerate the drought a bit. Maybe a bit of a feedback loop starting here.



Haven't Seen 100+ forecasted for St. Louis this early in the season since 2012.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 12:44 AM
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May and June are my favorite months of the year for weather. Summer-like warmth is really starting to take over, but the jet stream hasn't weakened enough to balance it out. I love looking at GFS runs to see what kind of nonsense it puts out.

Like tonights run. 120 degrees in Oklahoma would shatter their all-time record of 113.



Then you also have something like this, which would rank it among the top outbreaks for coverage of extreme parameters. Less intense but still ridiculous parameters rotate around the meandering southern ridge/heat dome, but not many storms pop due to an intense cap/EML.

For those who don't know how EHI works, values between 1-3 signify significant tornadoes are possible (assuming there's a supercell). You're seeing widespread 10+ here.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 25 2018, 12:50 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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jdrenken
post May 25 2018, 08:11 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 25 2018, 12:44 AM) *
May and June are my favorite months of the year for weather. Summer-like warmth is really starting to take over, but the jet stream hasn't weakened enough to balance it out. I love looking at GFS runs to see what kind of nonsense it puts out.

Like tonights run. 120 degrees in Oklahoma would shatter their all-time record of 113.



Then you also have something like this, which would rank it among the top outbreaks for coverage of extreme parameters. Less intense but still ridiculous parameters rotate around the meandering southern ridge/heat dome, but not many storms pop due to an intense cap/EML.

For those who don't know how EHI works, values between 1-3 signify significant tornadoes are possible (assuming there's a supercell). You're seeing widespread 10+ here.



Twitter thread via Maue talking about the GFS being...the GFS.

A look at the major indices and their impacts via Habbyhints!


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NorEaster07
post May 25 2018, 08:25 AM
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Max Dew points in June for Bridgeport.. Hoping for an early June like last yr. Didn't go above 60° until the 11th.

#KeepItDry

Attached File  Dewpoints5.jpg ( 297.47K ) Number of downloads: 2

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StL weatherjunki...
post May 25 2018, 08:56 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 25 2018, 09:25 AM) *
Max Dew points in June for Bridgeport.. Hoping for an early June like last yr. Didn't go above 60° until the 11th.

#KeepItDry

Attached File  Dewpoints5.jpg ( 297.47K ) Number of downloads: 2

Expecting the same weather two years in a row ... you just jinxed it laugh.gif


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ClicheVortex2014
post May 25 2018, 10:08 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 25 2018, 09:11 AM) *
Twitter thread via Maue talking about the GFS being...the GFS.

A look at the major indices and their impacts via Habbyhints!

Saw your retweet about that before here. I assume this would also mean GFS was exaggerating the strength of the cap, too.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 9 (Last: 6/20/18) (Highest: 94°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 16 (Last: 6/20/18)
Slight risks: 5 (Last: 5/31/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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