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> June 5-12 NW/Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather
ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 11 2018, 06:49 PM
Post #141




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92 MPH RFD with the HP supercell. Rotation on the southern tornado warning is almost right over Otoe.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 11 2018, 06:50 PM
Post #142




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 11 2018, 07:18 PM) *
It's a HP mess. Watching the cells in west Iowa. They're on the warm front with better overall shear.



Almost 40 minutes later, it's finally coming together.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 11 2018, 06:59 PM
Post #143







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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 11 2018, 05:44 PM) *
This image came at around the same time that a tornado report came in saying "large wedge."

That is very bad. There are around 700,000 people in the Omaha-Council Bluffs metro.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 11 2018, 07:00 PM
Post #144




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Warnings going up everywhere. No debris signatures at all today.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 11 2018, 07:12 PM
Post #145




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Now almost entirely in a squall now with embedded supercells. Very dangerous squall... not only with damaging winds, also with tornadoes... especially in the southern part of the squall.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 11 2018, 07:27 PM
Post #146




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New severe warning up for 90 MPH winds. Velocity shows 102 MPH winds about 3600 feet above ground.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jun 12 2018, 06:31 AM
Post #147







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Got woken up early this morning by a cell building overhead. Lota of CTG strikes. Pretty large limb down on neoghbors tree and seen another limb or tree down in the road on the next block. Not sure if it was wind or just the heavy rain. Ra8n gauge had 1.8" in it when I left for work.

Friends house was struck by lightning amd caught fire Sunday night. The overnight build ups have outperformed the diurnal storms IMBY
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 12 2018, 12:07 PM
Post #148







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New day 1 has a big change in the IA/WI area where a slight risk was added. Marginal expanded north in S IL and S OH also.

This was the 13z day 1 update
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And here's the newest 1630z update.
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QUOTE
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and damaging wind are most
likely across portions of the central and southern Great Plains
during the late afternoon through mid evening, and parts of the
Upper Midwest this evening into tonight.

...Central/Southern Great Plains...
Decaying MCS over eastern OK should continue to weaken, however
additional storm development is possible this afternoon as its
outflow pushes south of the Red River into northeast TX. Some uptick
in marginally severe hail and wind may accompany this activity, but
a diffluent low-level flow regime will likely limit potential for
sustained organization.

The western extent of the residual outflow boundary emanating from
the morning MCS will intersect the slow-moving cold front in the
vicinity of south-central KS, where additional storm development
will be possible late afternoon/early evening. Large buoyancy and
deep-layer shear near 30 kts should support a few transient rotating
updrafts, but hodographs should remain unremarkable. Isolated large
hail and damaging gusts will be the main threats, though a brief
tornado is possible given the presence of the residual outflow and a
relatively moist environment with near 70 boundary-layer dewpoints.

Farther west, a post-frontal upslope flow regime is becoming
established from the northern TX Panhandle into southeast CO and
southwest KS. Westward moisture advection will likely be offset
somewhat by deep vertical mixing this afternoon, such that isolated
to scattered high-based storm development is anticipated by late
afternoon in the Raton Mesa vicinity. Storms will then spread on
convective outflow interacting with the east-southeast upslope flow
in the low levels, and potentially grow into a couple of clusters
tonight. Isolated severe wind gusts and some large hail will be the
main concerns.

...Upper Midwest...
North of the MCS-induced overturning from the Mid-MO Valley to the
Ozarks last night into this morning, boundary-layer dewpoints linger
in the mid 60s from IA into southern MN and southwest WI. Surface
heating should remain modest with a large swath of stratus currently
present northeast of central IA. However, where diabatic heating is
occurring beneath the northeast periphery of the Plains elevated
mixed-layer, moderate buoyancy should develop with MLCAPE reaching
1500-2000 J/kg.

A mid-level jet associated with a compact northern Great Plains
shortwave trough will overspread the region this evening into
tonight, yielding increasingly elongated hodographs. Convergence
will also increase as the cold front accelerates east, resulting in
isolated to scattered storm development tonight. A few supercells
and clusters should form with swaths of severe hail and damaging
winds possible. The lack of a warmer boundary layer given the time
of day and weaker buoyancy with northeast extent should be limiting
factors to the overall threat.

...Lower OH Valley to Mid South...
Outflow from weakening overnight convection will continue to drift
southeast across AR and southeast MO. Renewed storm development will
be possible along the remnant boundary this afternoon, potentially
aided by the approach of a remnant MCV over east-central MO.
Vertical shear will remain modest, favoring multicell clusters with
isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail as the main
hazards through about sunset.

..Grams/Goss.. 06/12/2018
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jun 12 2018, 05:39 PM
Post #149







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Roof of a church here in Springfield that was struck by lightning last night.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 12 2018, 08:55 PM
Post #150




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Rogue tornado in SE IN. Confirmed by law enforcement.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 12 2018, 09:01 PM
Post #151




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ILN sounding is marginal in every way. But I could see how a weak/brief tornado could happen where the low-level winds are more veered.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 12 2018, 09:11 PM
Post #152




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A cell near Dillsboro (just SW of Lawrenceburg/SE of Versailles) could go tornado warned soon. ILN's radial velocity shows low-level veering, too.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Juniorrr
post Jun 13 2018, 11:29 AM
Post #153




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Parameters look okay around here for action later if the storms don't die out as they head SSE.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 13 2018, 11:45 AM
Post #154




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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jun 13 2018, 12:29 PM) *
Parameters look okay around here for action later if the storms don't die out as they head SSE.

Nearly 4000 CAPE ahead of that line of storms. Front is pushing southeast while the cloud tops are being pushed off to the east-northeast so the warm sector isn't contaminated by anvils. Shear isn't the best but also isn't the worst. Winds out of the west at the surface, out of the northwest aloft. Not bad. Maybe a brief supercell or two today?

Last day until summer returns with a vengeance.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 13 2018, 11:50 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 13 2018, 02:20 PM
Post #155







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Warning out for ILN's E IN counties.
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Juniorrr
post Jun 13 2018, 03:07 PM
Post #156




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May get the split as a supercell wanna-be heads SSE. Impressive ones in SE IN.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 13 2018, 03:28 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jun 13 2018, 04:07 PM) *
May get the split as a supercell wanna-be heads SSE. Impressive ones in SE IN.

Just sickening to see the part of the line headed toward us die out like that.
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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 13 2018, 07:31 PM
Post #158







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This shows likely tornado debris in the hills and low mountains of northern Pennsylvania (KBGM radar)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 14 2018, 01:32 AM
Post #159




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QUOTE(ColoradoChinook @ Jun 13 2018, 08:31 PM) *
This shows likely tornado debris in the hills and low mountains of northern Pennsylvania (KBGM radar)


I saw the debris signature in 2 scans and the warning still was only radar indicated rotation, no confirmed. rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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