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> June 5-12 NW/Plains/MW/GL/OV Severe Weather
Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 5 2018, 09:15 PM
Post #21







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Watch out for the Dakotas.
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QUOTE
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
905 PM CDT Tue Jun 5 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
southern North Dakota
northern South Dakota

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 905 PM
until 300 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue developing through southern North
Dakota and northern South Dakota this evening. Some supercell
structures capable of large hail are possible, but storms may
eventually evolve into an MCS with damaging wind eventually becoming
the main threat.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north
northwest of Philip SD to 30 miles north of Fargo ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.

...Dial
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2018, 09:25 PM
Post #22




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Can definitely see an MCS forming. Lots of convection.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 5 2018, 10:54 PM
Post #23




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Hope we can pull something off this weekend. NAM has a nice setup for Saturday. MCS in Iowa, warm front transitioning to a stationary front to its east. With highs in the high 80s/low 90s expected from Ohio to Iowa and Missouri, certainly ripe for storms.




Epitome of a ridge toppling system


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 5 2018, 10:58 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 5 2018, 11:16 PM
Post #24







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Storms in ND finally got going. Several warnings there now.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 6 2018, 12:16 AM
Post #25







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0z GGEM was well interesting for next Monday night-Wednesday morning. Not likely to happen but had to share it.

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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 6 2018, 12:32 AM
Post #26







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Regarding the severe weather game -- if I don't get points from Valley City ND, at least I can claim the radar had 70 dBz and a 2.5" hail indicator.



This post has been edited by ColoradoChinook: Jun 6 2018, 12:32 AM
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Middle of Nowher...
post Jun 6 2018, 06:52 AM
Post #27




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Going forward I'll take a hard pass on overnight storms like last night tyvm.

Could have at least dropped more than .39" for all the ruckus that went on after midnight.
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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 6 2018, 07:16 PM
Post #28







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high-precipitation supercell in Nebraska, moving southwestward, amid a westerly flow at 300mb. Hail up to tennis ball (2.5") size

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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 6 2018, 10:00 PM
Post #29







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NAM and especially the 3K NAM both want to pop a few storms in the C IN to W OH area tomorrow evening.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 6 2018, 10:16 PM
Post #30







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There's actually a cell just NE of Indy now
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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 6 2018, 11:22 PM
Post #31







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That's a lot of anvil cloud material at -60C to -75C

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 7 2018, 01:22 AM
Post #32




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That's a huge area of severe storms possible. Over 750,000 square miles.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 7 2018, 01:22 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 7 2018, 01:26 AM
Post #33




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QUOTE(ColoradoChinook @ Jun 7 2018, 12:22 AM) *
That's a lot of anvil cloud material at -60C to -75C



Been saving Goes east loops of all different types from that explosion of clouds and storms. Wish there was a radar associated with it that you could overlay during the thunderstorm growth period because it is incredible to see those blossom.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Jun 7 2018, 08:54 AM
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Looking like a pretty active period coming up over the next week.


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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 7 2018, 04:19 PM
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Couple of cells have popped up NE of Muncie IN.
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Removed_Member_ColoradoChinook_*
post Jun 7 2018, 06:20 PM
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Now with the higher resolution GOES-16, you can see a few spots of -80C at the cloud tops in north Texas.

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NWOhioChaser
post Jun 7 2018, 07:43 PM
Post #37




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 6 2018, 11:00 PM) *
NAM and especially the 3K NAM both want to pop a few storms in the C IN to W OH area tomorrow evening.

Looks like they did a pretty good job of calling that one. Storms from Lafayette to Munice with some cells entering W. Ohio near Dayton.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 7 2018, 07:48 PM
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QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Jun 7 2018, 08:43 PM) *
Looks like they did a pretty good job of calling that one. Storms from Lafayette to Munice with some cells entering W. Ohio near Dayton.

Almost like it hits a brick wall as it enters west OH.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 7 2018, 11:27 PM
Post #39




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jun 7 2018, 08:48 PM) *
Almost like it hits a brick wall as it enters west OH.

I watched the radar. You can notice around its peak strength it produced a damaging wind report, then you notice a gust front signature on the radar and it weakened. Makes perfect sense.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jun 7 2018, 11:41 PM
Post #40







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Tomorrow evening looks nice and stormy around here on the 3K NAM/HRRR.

3K NAM has a very nice looking bow echo Saturday night/Sunday morning in NW IL.

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