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> April 4-6 MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Cogitation: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Snowadelphia
post Mar 25 2016, 07:15 PM
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Call me crazy, desperate, or overly optimistic, but the GFS has been showing a major cold snap during the early part of April for several runs now. The Euro is also now showing showing the same cold snap. I will remain skeptical as we are more than a week out and this would be a storm in early April. However, the cold depicted on both models is serious and seems to coincide with a system tracking up from the Gulf Coast. Crazy early, but for the die hard winter lovers out there, this is something to digest and inspect six ways to Sunday. Enjoy!

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This post has been edited by Snowadelphia: Mar 31 2016, 09:25 AM


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 15.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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Ryan Duff
post Mar 25 2016, 08:10 PM
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I'd rather see this opened as a cold weather event for now... and almost did earlier today but figured I'd give it one more day and at least some Euro support in the long range.

Storm threat seems a bit wish-y, but hey, you opened the thread so run with it.

Make sure to update the subtitle as well, per guidelines:

QUOTE
SUBTITLES MUST BE ONE OF: (For Fall, Winter and Spring storms)

Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST


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snowsux
post Mar 25 2016, 09:40 PM
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An epic possibility for sure.
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Snowadelphia
post Mar 25 2016, 11:40 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 25 2016, 09:10 PM) *
I'd rather see this opened as a cold weather event for now... and almost did earlier today but figured I'd give it one more day and at least some Euro support in the long range.

Storm threat seems a bit wish-y, but hey, you opened the thread so run with it.

Make sure to update the subtitle as well, per guidelines:


Updated...I totally agree with the "wish-y" aspect. However, that cold air looks impressive this far out and I am sure snow in parts of New England isn't uncommon this time of the year. Worth keeping an eye on.


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 15.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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Snowadelphia
post Mar 25 2016, 11:44 PM
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To Duff's point, temps look way below normal for early April. Still energy to the South. High pressure squashed it this time.


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This post has been edited by Snowadelphia: Mar 25 2016, 11:46 PM


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 15.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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Undertakerson
post Mar 26 2016, 05:00 AM
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Since this is the week I have scheduled to be in FL, something interesting is bound to happen back here. (been that way the past few years, actually, regardless of the exact dates I go there)

With the set up, there is potential for snow SHOWERS, and maybe even Lake Effect in the region adjacent to the GL's. Widespread synoptic generated snow seems to be a bit towards the lower end of the probability scale.

The start to this real "cool down" is the weekend of PA Trout Season Opener. I've stood in ice cold streams on many opening days of yore, wind driven snow showers in my face - fishing rod eyelets freezing shut on the line-handling fish with hands that can barely move, let alone feel due to being so numb.



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Ryan Duff
post Mar 26 2016, 05:33 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 26 2016, 06:00 AM) *
Since this is the week I have scheduled to be in FL, something interesting is bound to happen back here. (been that way the past few years, actually, regardless of the exact dates I go there)

With the set up, there is potential for snow SHOWERS, and maybe even Lake Effect in the region adjacent to the GL's. Widespread synoptic generated snow seems to be a bit towards the lower end of the probability scale.

The start to this real "cool down" is the weekend of PA Trout Season Opener. I've stood in ice cold streams on many opening days of yore, wind driven snow showers in my face - fishing rod eyelets freezing shut on the line-handling fish with hands that can barely move, let alone feel due to being so numb.


Oh so you're the reason all my plants in the garden are going to die? laugh.gif

I should have figured something like this would happen. I knew you your trip was coming up. Should have figured this would be when. dry.gif

Joking aside, I've got cold season crops in the garden that will tolerate a frost/freeze to about 26F. They're not going to tolerate the 20F 2M temps the GFS is advertising. May be scrambling later this week to figure something out.


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JDClapper
post Mar 26 2016, 07:40 AM
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QUOTE(Snowadelphia @ Mar 26 2016, 12:44 AM) *
To Duff's point, temps look way below normal for early April. Still energy to the South. High pressure squashed it this time.


Attached Image


And considering most long range big cold has been over-advertised most of the winter, perhaps the "push" will relax enough to make it a bit more interesting in future cycles.

Yeah, a bit "wishy", but based on historical "trends". smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 10"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 26 2016, 07:52 AM
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At this point this certainly looks cold. Not a good set up for the fruit orchards in the valleys around here. I'm sure they'll be spraying to keep buds closed. Warm, then quite cold. Not good.

From a weather perspective, could be fun, cold, upslope snow in april, how bout it.


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sometimes Accident, MD
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 26 2016, 07:57 AM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Mar 26 2016, 06:33 AM) *
Oh so you're the reason all my plants in the garden are going to die? laugh.gif

I should have figured something like this would happen. I knew you your trip was coming up. Should have figured this would be when. dry.gif

Joking aside, I've got cold season crops in the garden that will tolerate a frost/freeze to about 26F. They're not going to tolerate the 20F 2M temps the GFS is advertising. May be scrambling later this week to figure something out.


Rent a helicopter. Keep the air moving, keeps temps much warmer. Very simple and affordable solution.


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sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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Ryan Duff
post Mar 26 2016, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Mar 26 2016, 08:57 AM) *
Rent a helicopter. Keep the air moving, keeps temps much warmer. Very simple and affordable solution.


LOL... Sort of like a tethered hot air balloon. If I can tether a helicopter and just keep it stuck in place. Maybe one of the fancy jet helicopters like the medevac ones for extra heat. wink.gif laugh.gif


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rtcemc
post Mar 26 2016, 07:35 PM
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If this is an attempt at a Late Season Late Nite, pick up the pace. Jokes are brutal laugh.gif Hya MD how are ya MD and Ryan?? We need even a cold rain, along with Monday storm. Ground is rock hard. Fire potential real bad at this time of year with the lack of precip and normal spring winds. Have a hammer in golf bag to get the tees in the ground.
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longislander
post Mar 26 2016, 08:20 PM
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http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...-april/56265180
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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 26 2016, 09:24 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Mar 26 2016, 08:35 PM) *
If this is an attempt at a Late Season Late Nite, pick up the pace. Jokes are brutal laugh.gif Hya MD how are ya MD and Ryan?? We need even a cold rain, along with Monday storm. Ground is rock hard. Fire potential real bad at this time of year with the lack of precip and normal spring winds. Have a hammer in golf bag to get the tees in the ground.



Good good. Been a little sparse in here and I have been noticeably absent, because of work/travel. But you're right we really could use the water and looks like we'll get some.

This is shaping to be a very cold period, and maybe a little excitement will come with it.

Im also still reeling with my Natorino missing the last storm, wondering what it was trying to show me...


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sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


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SnowMan11
post Mar 27 2016, 09:02 AM
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Looks like suppression will be the case with this one


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
Total : 18.5 "
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PoconoSnow
post Mar 27 2016, 10:27 AM
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Gmao has one last squall line heading through the shredder





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WEATHERFAN100
post Mar 27 2016, 12:06 PM
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-James
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SnowMan11
post Mar 27 2016, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Mar 27 2016, 11:27 AM) *
Gmao has one last squall line heading through the shredder





This model was wrong along with the other models for the last storm sad.gif


--------------------
Anthony

2017-2018 Snowfall


12/9-10/17 : 3.6 "
12/14/17 : 1.2 "
12/15/17 : 1.5"
12/30/17 : 1.0"
1/4/18 : 12.2"
Total : 18.5 "
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JDClapper
post Mar 27 2016, 08:28 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 27 2016, 07:43 PM) *
This model was wrong along with the other models for the last storm sad.gif


It will probably never be correct again because of it.

Using this logic, we should not even analyze the Euro or EPS wink.gif

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Mar 27 2016, 08:28 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 10"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MD Blue Ridge
post Mar 27 2016, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 27 2016, 09:28 PM) *
It will probably never be correct again because of it.

Using this logic, we should not even analyze the Euro or EPS wink.gif


Listen here Biff Tanen, that's a strong tone. But, +1.

Hoping for one last little treat, not sure well see it.


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sometimes Cascade, MD
Elevation: 1625'


sometimes Accident, MD
Elevation: 2700'


90 Degree Days in 2017: 0
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