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Phased Vort
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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It's fascinating how things can change in a day after so many days with an far out to sea solution.

Are you guys thinking this "correction" west is warrented ?
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2248001 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 11:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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00Z GFS develops a pretty sizeable storm. This run the storm forms inland and tracks through western PA and then into western NY state.

This brings a decent soaking for most of the region.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247917 · Replies: · Views: 652

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 06:26 PM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 21 2017, 05:37 PM) *
GFS been flirting with this "Miller B like" scenario for a while. Of course, my first thought was "oh boy, if the gang were to see this 3-4 mos from now". rolleyes.gif laugh.gif


Yea.

This one should be fun to practice and prep for late November through March.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247899 · Replies: · Views: 652

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 06:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Sep 21 2017, 04:26 PM) *
I also see something forming on the Euro at 240



Yea. The 12Z ECMWF has it as well.

Precipitation:
Attached Image



MSLP:
Attached Image

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247897 · Replies: · Views: 652

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 11:51 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Trof vorticity tracking through the Great Lakes extending southward over the Tennessee valley, may sharpen and go negatively tilted as the trof base approaches the east coast around South Carolina and thus, spawns surface low just off the coast.


Should be a nice warm up for the colder months.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2247848 · Replies: · Views: 652

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 13-January 08
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Maria may be upgraded to a CAT4 again.

RECON on OBS 47, just found 115 kts surface winds (132MPH winds).
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247845 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 11:21 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From frames 132 to 163, Maria is really lost and does not know where to go.

It goes east then west and stop and north then east... blink.gif

  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247844 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 21 2017, 11:09 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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12Z GFS frame 132:

Attached Image


Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247843 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 07:43 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Its_Miller_A_Time @ Sep 20 2017, 06:29 PM) *
Looking at the satellite over Africa, there are a couple of waves due to hit the ocean in the coming days.



And some of these waves do nothing until they get into the Caribbean,
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247777 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 07:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 20 2017, 06:03 PM) *
Future runs - would be good to focus upstream at the US west, southwest actually. It is there that the 18z went astray form previous output in that it released the anchoring southern stream energy, to allow it to join the northern stream. Previous run had the northern stream race out in front and leave that packet behind. That earlier solution allowed the northern stream to race ahead and catch Maria to some extent.

This run, they come together in tandem - the north and south stream. They, combined, are far too slow to influence Maria until only able to "kick" Maria.

Watch also the s/e vort I and Carlos (PV) have mentioned. It needs to become stronger in future runs because if it's the only attractant, it is not strong enough at present, to do much beyond becoming fodder for Maria.

I'm also watching Lee - does he continue to erode the AR to the point it can't come back strongly enough to become a player.

Still 4-6 days out, I believe - much can change, as well all know too well.



Good prep and informative post for the 00Z runs.

Keep it up UTS.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247775 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 05:28 PM


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QUOTE(Black05GSR @ Sep 20 2017, 05:20 PM) *
From 156-168 it heads NW ever so slowly



Yea.

The shortwave is what tries to attract Maria. But it would need to be slower and stronger to really bring Maria NW for a longer period.
Otherwise, Coriolis will take care of Maria.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247755 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 05:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 20 2017, 05:15 PM) *
not east, due north

[attachment=331127:gfs_z500...t_atl_27.png]



The shortwave energy to the NE of Michigan should at least attract Maria to the NW for a while.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247746 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 02:22 PM


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QUOTE(njwx7 @ Sep 20 2017, 02:08 PM) *
From hour 192 on Maria tracks NE OTS without any major impacts on CONUS....Essentially a very similar track to 00z, however, this run is closer to the coast.



QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 20 2017, 02:20 PM) *
It goes past 70w around 38N or so. Pretty far outside the benchmark. Really no affects on land.



Thanks for the info, both of you.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247718 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 02:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Sep 20 2017, 02:00 PM) *
Sorry, loading slow today



Itīs cool.

Whenever it gets done, you may let us know what you see if you donīt mind.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247714 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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12Z JMA:

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247710 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:53 PM


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We would need smaller intervals, to see if it affected any land or how close it track from frame 192 to 216.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247707 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Frame 192 is critical.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247704 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:34 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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I continue to like this area of the tropical Atlantic ocean, especially the western section, for tropical development during the end of September and early October.

Still think that a broad area of lower heights (lower pressure), may give rise to a tropical cyclone, especially given the high SSTs and generally lighter shear.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247701 · Replies: · Views: 7,256

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 20 2017, 01:14 PM


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12Z ECMWF tracks NW from initialization to frame 72.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247696 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 10:20 PM


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RECON Mission 7 found a 907.2mb pressure.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247535 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 05:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Attached Image

Attached Image



Maria never stops...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247446 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 05:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Maria will be record breaking.....


RECON OBS 43 just found a 909.3mb pressure and 175MPH surface winds.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247439 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 05:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Maria surpasses Irma pressure wise:

QUOTE
6:00 PM AST Tue Sep 19
Location: 16.8°N 64.0°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 913 mb
Max sustained: 165 mph
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247430 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 05:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 19 2017, 05:11 PM) *
The "coast is clear" and not in a good way.

[attachment=330987:gfs_z500...rt_us_18.png]



That arm of rigding between Jose and Maria also helps keep Maria going NW.

That ULL over the GOMEX is interesting.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247426 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

Phased Vort
Posted on: Sep 19 2017, 05:06 PM


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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Sep 19 2017, 05:03 PM) *
Well this run is staring to have a troubling look to it

[attachment=330979:gfs_z500...rt_us_13.png]



Yea...

Especially with that deep sharp trof rocking into the west CONUS coast.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2247417 · Replies: · Views: 161,742

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