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> California Weather 'El-Lipsis' ..., "Discuss amongst yourselves" Forecasts, guests, and fun
idecline
post Mar 5 2018, 07:21 PM
Post #241




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...finally we are under high pressure...it allowed a much warmer day with calmer winds...highs in the 60's...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 931.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

...another nice day for tomorrow...perhaps a bit warmer as the high is building for now...maybe a few 70's?
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 707.46K ) Number of downloads: 0

the low to our west seems to be behaving like a strange cut-off low...in an unusual position...eventually headed our way...?OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 285.04K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the idea is that this system continues to spin with decent energy as the week continues...should be on our doorstep as of Wednesday afternoon...yet will there be enough forcing to bring more than a shower...?
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 292.3K ) Number of downloads: 0

blink.gif ...this map has a very vigorous storm in the GOA...with a gigantic high pressure (1050mb surface)! to it's SW...appearing to cover 2/3 of the Northern Pacific Basin...a high stationed out here is not very 'climo' IMHO...
WPC QPF's Day 1-3:
Attached File  d13_fill.gif ( 34.09K ) Number of downloads: 0

..does this validate...? will the rain hardly reach the Bay Area...a nice outcome if the storm can just tap a little more moisture...

This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 5 2018, 07:44 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 7 2018, 07:48 PM
Post #242




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...high clouds filtered through this morning...then...bright sunlight, balmy light winds...and 70's in some areas
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 952.63K ) Number of downloads: 0

...we are under high pressure still...with a vigorous low stationed to our west...the tail of a front may reach us tonight...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 695.31K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the low is progged to move north and east with another batch of tropical moisture pulled into the fray...meh
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 300.49K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the Bay Area could end up being right in the center of this 'split flow'...rain to our north and friday to our south...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 288.9K ) Number of downloads: 0

..just a slight 'wobble' may give coastal sections especially a chance for decent returns on Friday into Saturday
...or we could only get a light, brief shower from time to time...one of those moisture feeds need to visit us...
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1224 PM EST WED MAR 07 2018

VALID 12Z SAT MAR 10 2018 - 12Z WED MAR 14 2018

...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS
WITH ANOTHER STORM DEEPENING OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND MODEL ASSESSMENT...

AFTER A BRIEF FLATTENING OF FLOW LATE THIS WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL
AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER 48 DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
RIDGING ALIGNING OVER THE ROCKIES SHOULD BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
EXPANSIVE CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN U.S. TROUGHING
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS... (edit for west coast only)

OUT WEST, THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON
SUNDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES INLAND OVER THE
REGION. ATTENTION FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A COLD AND HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EDGE INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY.


GERHARDT


...we can only hope this "highly anomalous" surge can be a 'tropical hook-up' and give lots of 'anomalous' rain... laugh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 12 2018, 07:05 PM
Post #243




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...yesterday was nice...highs in the 70's in some areas...late evening featured some pre-frontal clouds...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 930.21K ) Number of downloads: 0

...plenty of sunshine and scattered clouds today...moisture is now streaming in from the south...some rain?
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 802.81K ) Number of downloads: 0

...winds have picked up and lowering cloud level means this 'warm' frontal surge will possibly produce rain...
...Tuesday should be showery...the first heavier showers of this multi-day event should arrive late Tuesday...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 279.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the OPC shows the offshore low beginning to surge onshore...losing energy, yet leaving a lot of unstable moist air for the more northerly 'storm' to utilize as it comes ashore later in the week with heavy rain and wind...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 291.75K ) Number of downloads: 0

...unsettled conditions and a cooler air mass should settle over the Bay Area until at least Saturday...heavy snow in the Sierras from Wednesday into Saturday as cold air stacks up behind the series of 'fronts'...

QPF's:
Attached File  p120i.gif ( 41.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


...looks like a very impressive set of storms and rainfall amounts for the second week of March...hope for more???


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 13 2018, 08:25 PM
Post #244




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...rain was decent overnight with scattered showers today...another batch of showers moving in overnight...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 915.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

...cloudy with lighter winds...later tonight another band of showers...seen on WV below should bring rain...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 755.37K ) Number of downloads: 0

...several sections of low pressure are rotating around in this trough...as it slides southwards...cooler air moves in...instability showers...small hail...and gusty winds will be possible...snow levels will lower in the Sierras and into interior valleys...a dusting is again possible on local mountains later this week if upper air is cold enough...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 277.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


...several perturbations in the atmosphere(can you say waves) rolleyes.gif should move through by the weekend with lingering showers and perhaps fog forming Saturday night...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 16 2018, 07:52 PM
Post #245




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...more on the way...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 631.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


...and next week...OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 297.11K ) Number of downloads: 0


... rolleyes.gif ...more the merrier...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 19 2018, 07:04 PM
Post #246




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...WPC QPF's>>>Day 1-3...
Attached File  d13_fill.gif ( 37.87K ) Number of downloads: 0

...sure looks good...a little more north would be very impressive...

...clouds are already streaming overhead...yet the main low pressure area is about 1000 miles to our West...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 680.35K ) Number of downloads: 0

...chances for showers from the 'warm' front/sub-tropical flow tomorrow into Wednesday...real rain Thursday?
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 287.11K ) Number of downloads: 0


...hopefully this low doesn't 'spin-out' before it comes ashore with some much needed rainfall...esp. for SoCal.

This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 19 2018, 07:08 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 20 2018, 07:22 PM
Post #247




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...rain has arrived as of this morning...first band is clearing somewhat with stronger winds as the SW fetch continues...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 882.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the sub-tropical moisture stream is aimed directly at the Central California coast...mostly from Big Sur to Point Conception...this means heavy rains in coastal mountains...with definite worries in fire ravaged hillsides...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 710.28K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the WV gives a better view of all of moisture still to be pulled up the 'escalator' by the now three revolving lows...the OPC Pacific map shows the progression of fronts that will come in as the rotation nears the coast...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 300.18K ) Number of downloads: 0

...by Thursday some of the strongest bands of rain should be over the South Bay Area down into Southern California...a wedge of colder air with a trough and small low pressure system will creep down from the north...with chances for rain into the weekend...mainly to the north with cooler air filtering down over the area
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 264.16K ) Number of downloads: 0

...much needed rain is now being seen across the State of California...it's a mini-"March Miracle" laugh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 21 2018, 07:53 PM
Post #248




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...decent winds and rain overnight...not a big storm...much higher rainfall amounts towards San Luis Obispo
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 709.29K ) Number of downloads: 0

...late tonight a very wet moisture track should spread over the Bay Area...with heavy rain, winds and T-storms...this should last through the afternoon...a cooler trough with chilly conditions will bring light rain for early weekend...
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 281.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


...next week looks to dry out for a few days...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 23 2018, 07:38 PM
Post #249




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...more rain and wind overnight tonight...lighter showers into the weekend...cool air will settle over Bay Area...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 898.94K ) Number of downloads: 0

...low pressure is spinning down coast...should be over North Bay on Saturday...with lighter showers south...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 688.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


...last of the run...cooler trough pushes east into Monday with a high pressure ridge building over the State...

...Spring has sprung...temperatures should reflect this by Tuesday of next week ...next rain chance????

This post has been edited by idecline: Mar 27 2018, 08:43 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Mar 27 2018, 08:42 PM
Post #250




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...a 'sneaky little low pressure area is sending a little convection into the Eastern Sierras...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 899.12K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the rest of the Stae seems to be mired under high pressure...(surface and aloft) for the next 4-5 days...
OPC Pacific 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 267.18K ) Number of downloads: 0


...warmer weather ahead through the weekend...possibly cooler early next week...storms travel to the north...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 3 2018, 05:59 PM
Post #251




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...Spring will turn back into winter late week...at least meaning rainy weather...and slightly cooler...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 844.31K ) Number of downloads: 0


...a long fetch of moist air from the subtropical region (i.e. Hawaiian Islands area) is being drawn into a now forming storm to our west...light showers are possible as soon as Thursday as this air filters over our area into Friday...by lat Friday into Saturday we should be under or close to the main plume of moisture that a low to our north will invigorate...meaning heavy rain for places in the direct line of a narrow band of moisture ('atmospheric river') band that shold set up...lighter amount s of rain to the north and south of the 'bullseye' areas in this storm...
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 282.92K ) Number of downloads: 0


...Saturday should see rain all over the Bay Area as the cooler air mass behind the front drops south... huh.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 4 2018, 06:59 PM
Post #252




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...high clouds are already filtering over our area as a warm front ahead of the main storm rolls through...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 663.46K ) Number of downloads: 0

...several bands of frontal 'waves' appear to be lining up to roar through starting late Thursday from the west.
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 291.59K ) Number of downloads: 0

...with a rapidly intensifying low moving just to our north and a corresponding front (with tropical connex) trailing behind...we should have generous rainfall amounts across the Northern half of the State...

...a reinforcing colder low to our north will gradually push down and perhaps enhance rainfall amounts into Saturday and Sunday...
Attached File  P_72hrsfc.gif ( 280.75K ) Number of downloads: 0


...several low pressure systems behind this storm may be shunted north by high pressure early next week...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 271.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


rolleyes.gif maybe the high pressure will be shoved south again...and some more late season rains can arrive...?


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 6 2018, 07:26 PM
Post #253




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...most of the wind and rain are into the North Bay Area...with heavy showers in the Santa Cruz Mountains...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 777.81K ) Number of downloads: 0

...it seems like the focus of the 'stream' of moisture is narrow and lifting north for now...as the low spins a secondary front should scoot through into tomorrow morning with colder air behind...possible thunderstorms...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 654.93K ) Number of downloads: 0

...tomorrow mornings forecast from OPC shows the 'last' wave of intense showers poised to move through...
OPC 24hr:
Attached File  P_24hrsfc.gif ( 234.36K ) Number of downloads: 0

...this should keep Saturday wet with an occasional downpour with embedded hail and winds perhaps...lurking for early week...? another storm?
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 281.61K ) Number of downloads: 0

...if our high pressure system that builds in Sunday into Monday is pushed south (again) we may have a multi-day influx of showers mid-week... unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 9 2018, 06:52 PM
Post #254




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...it looks like our 'wimpy' high pressure is again going to give way to a series of impulses from the North Eastern Pacific Ocean...climatologically speaking April is not a big rainfall month for us...this (and last year) have defied climatology over and over again...so here comes light showers to the north on Tuesday...and perhaps rainy Bay Area late week...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 877.99K ) Number of downloads: 0

...a warm front is already impacting our skies as high clouds filter in...and warm mid-70's became very humid feeling this late afternoon...doesn't seem to be a lot of energy with the first 'wave'...adequate moisture tho'...?
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 723.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

....and 48hr OPC Pacific:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 284.94K ) Number of downloads: 0

...this seems to show a 'progressive' flow of energy into the West...a front moving past to our south with low(s) to our NW
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 279.47K ) Number of downloads: 0

...by late week the high pressure seems to set up a 'ridge' over our area into the Great Basin...and with the 'ominous' giant Pacific high lurking well to the west...appearing to set up another 'blocking' regime... unsure.gif

...more omissions to come late week in this 'thread'...where 'omission' is our mission... laugh.gif ..."El-Lipsis" weather ! wink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 9 2018, 07:27 PM
Post #255




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...a quick look at SST's in the Pacific show a long fetch of warmer than average sea surface temperatures from just west of Hawaii right to the Baja/California border...could this be a 'signal' of continued sub-tropical moisture being pulled to the NE into California ('atmospheric river') and into the Texarkana region...hmm???
Attached File  4_9_SSTA.png ( 128.14K ) Number of downloads: 0


...yes 'La-Nina' has not completely let go it's grip of the 'flow' in the equatorial latitudes...in the mid-latitudes?

...that is IMHO the Big ? going into late April... wink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 10 2018, 06:33 PM
Post #256




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...a very narrow line of showers are moving through the Bay Area...light amounts of rain...maybe .10 inch for some...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 660.73K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the clouds to our west...and the moist air driven by the jet stream look to make inroads Wednesday night into Thursday...with potential rain throughout the area...let's see if our high pressure agrees like it has lately.
OPC 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 281.33K ) Number of downloads: 0


...it looks as if the large high way out west will stay for awhile...meaning chances for the tail end of fronts to drag through for the next few days...maybe this pattern will continue to bring rain into the State for awhile wink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 16 2018, 05:44 PM
Post #257




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...the rain that 'over-eager' Bay Area forecasters hyped did not arrive until afternoon yesterday in most areas..
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 699.26K ) Number of downloads: 0

...today has been the very unstable cold air behind the 'front'...with numerous thundershowers including a heavy hailstorm in the hills right above Oakland, CA...more unstable showers should spin through mostly the South Bay until late tonight...cool and breezy tomorrow...with maybe a chance for rain later this week...no 'agreement' on this yet...
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 267.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the next wave of energy is well to our west...let's see if the high builds a ridge?...or caves in again to NW flow... unsure.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 17 2018, 08:16 PM
Post #258




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QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 16 2018, 05:44 PM) *
OPC Pacific 48hr:
Attached File  P_48hrsfc.gif ( 267.17K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the next wave of energy is well to our west...let's see if the high builds a ridge?...or caves in again to NW flow... unsure.gif

... rolleyes.gif ...looks like the jet stream will bring in another frontal system to the Bay Area tomorrow...the focus looks to be south of the Golden Gate...with a 'jet streak' appearing at the base of this quickly accelerating 'trough'...the South Bay may be looking at decent rains into the Santa Cruz Mts. and south into the Santa Lucia Range from Big Sur towards Pt. Conception...if this all pans out... dry.gif
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 991.25K ) Number of downloads: 0

...the 'jet streak' look is often a sign of an invigoration of the colder air pushing down into the base of the trough...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 720.71K ) Number of downloads: 0

...with plenty of 'apparent' moisture to work with...this could be an exciting little interlude before the 'block'
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 271.21K ) Number of downloads: 0

...a mighty big 'spring-like' ridge looks to build over the weekend...with temperatures soaring into the high 70's and low 80's...

This post has been edited by idecline: Apr 17 2018, 08:19 PM


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 18 2018, 08:08 PM
Post #259




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...low pressure 'trough' and front are still to our west...sliding right along the coast...it looks like Southern Santa Clara county and Santa Cruz Mountains will be in line for some showers overnight...spreading south and inland...
Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 959.16K ) Number of downloads: 0


...the WV loop shows the moisture and energy is still decent...it is just a matter of how close to the coast these showers get before moving south towards Point Conception...
Attached File  isawvcnepac.gif ( 690.93K ) Number of downloads: 0


...after a little bit of unstable and cloudy weather, a large high will build in for the weekend...with possible high winds by Sunday...
OPC 96hr:
Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 289.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


...offshore winds will heat up the area quickly on the weekend...even warmer temperatures are forecast for Southern California...



--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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idecline
post Apr 19 2018, 05:13 PM
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'El-Lipsis' weather is not responsible for the fact that the shower threat did not materialize...'It's Immaterial'

...warm weather ahead as 'gigantic' Spring high moves in...

Attached File  isanepac.gif ( 956.03K ) Number of downloads: 0


...be ready for warm temps Saturday thru Monday...


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

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