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> Long Range Spring 2018--Outlooks, Thoughts, and Discussions, Spring is only one season away
bingobobbo
post Dec 26 2017, 09:26 PM
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I know a lot of us are big snow fans--including yours truly. However, I am not a big fan of prolonged cold weather--as we are in the early stages of as I write this. As a result, I have decided to begin the Spring 2018 thread because I know that several people in the forums do enjoy warm weather.

HOW TO WAIT FOR SPRING

12-11 The number of days until the vernal equinox reached double digits.
12-20 The time until the equinox fell to three months
12-22 The amount of daylight per day began to lengthen
12-23 The number of days till April (and Easter) fell to double digits
12-28 Only nine weeks until March 1, or meteorological spring
12-30 Three months until the beginning of Passover
1-1 March is the month after next; April and Easter are only 3 months away
1-3 Only six weeks before Lent begins (Ash Wednesday)
1-4 Only six weeks until spring training for major league baseball; eight weeks to March
1-6 For us Irish, only 10 weeks to St. Patrick’s Day
1-10 Five weeks to Lent
1-11 Seven weeks to March
1-15 The beginning of April now as close as the end of October.
1-16 For baseball fans, spring training is about a month away.
1-17 Four weeks to Lent
1-18 Six weeks to March
1-21 10 weeks to April/Easter
1-24 Three weeks to Lent
1-25 Five weeks to March
1-28 Nine weeks to April/Easter
1-30 Two months to Passover
1-31 Two weeks to Lent
2-1 March is next month; two months to April
2-4 Eight weeks to April/Easter
2-5 Solar spring begins
2-7 One week to Lent
2-8 Three weeks to March
2-11 Seven weeks to April/Easter
2-14 It is Ash Wednesday—a sure sign of late winter.
2-15 March is in two weeks; April is now closer than December.
2-18 Six weeks to April/Easter
3-20 One month till vernal equinox
2-22 One week to March
2-25 April/Easter in five weeks
3-1 St. Patrick’s Day, the vernal equinox, and Passover are all later this month
3-2 May is now closer than December; April is closer than January
3-6 May is only eight weeks away; vernal equinox is two weeks from now.
3-11 Three weeks to April/Easter
3-13 One week to the equinox
3-16 April as close as February.
3-17 Top of the morning to you; May now as close as the end of January
3-20 The vernal equinox; May only six weeks away
3-23 Passover only one week away
3-25 April/Easter one week away
4-1 May is next month.

If spring weather is running late, I will have to add to this.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 26 2017, 10:47 PM
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Nice way to start the thread. Well done.

I’m excited to see what else this winter brings with the higher end Nina, but I’m always excited to think about spring and severe weather.

Will post more later when I get home and settle in, probably next week, but I’m excited to see a Nina spring but I’m cautious because there may be some issues.

The TNI has been quite negative lately, which if it continues, argues against an active severe weather season. As for our weather though, we should see Nina characteristics throughout the entire season, as opposed to last year when it only persisted through late February. This owes to the longevity of both events... last Nina started dying in november... this Nina probably peaked a while ago (in moderate Nina status) but it has plateaued for a while and is continuing to to this day.

The two Nina’s were also different in their structure... this one has been east to east-central based (hence the -TNI so far) while last year was central based (hence the +TNI through February).

Unlike last year though, there exists the possibility for the PDO to stay negative; November 2017 data says we’re in a weak -PDO. That, and the strength of this Nina, suggest we’ll see more Nina like characteristics and perhaps more of a normal severe weather season. The -TNI concerns me, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that evolves and how the general pattern evolves going into February and March. Especially the high latitude blocking.

The best case scenario if you want a warm and active spring is for the Nina to die out by shifting west. I don’t think there’s any support for that scenario to happen.

Like I said though, I’m excited. It’s been 7 years since we’ve had a Nina spring and summer... and this isn’t a low-end Nina either.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Seil79
post Dec 28 2017, 06:28 PM
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Take it for what it's worth, but the drought monitor bears some similarities to the same period. As 2012 at the same time. Granted that was an extremely warm winter and this doesn't look the same in the temperature department, but agricultural interests across the corn belt should begin to at least consider a warmer conditions into at least late spring and very warm conditions and perhaps drought into the summer, IF meaningful moisture doesn't begin to come into the Midwest and plains by March. Have to remember the winter of 1935-36 was brutally cold across the upper plains and Midwest.
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bingobobbo
post Dec 28 2017, 10:00 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 26 2017, 10:47 PM) *
Nice way to start the thread. Well done.

I’m excited to see what else this winter brings with the higher end Nina, but I’m always excited to think about spring and severe weather.

Will post more later when I get home and settle in, probably next week, but I’m excited to see a Nina spring but I’m cautious because there may be some issues.

The TNI has been quite negative lately, which if it continues, argues against an active severe weather season. As for our weather though, we should see Nina characteristics throughout the entire season, as opposed to last year when it only persisted through late February. This owes to the longevity of both events... last Nina started dying in november... this Nina probably peaked a while ago (in moderate Nina status) but it has plateaued for a while and is continuing to to this day.

The two Nina’s were also different in their structure... this one has been east to east-central based (hence the -TNI so far) while last year was central based (hence the +TNI through February).

Unlike last year though, there exists the possibility for the PDO to stay negative; November 2017 data says we’re in a weak -PDO. That, and the strength of this Nina, suggest we’ll see more Nina like characteristics and perhaps more of a normal severe weather season. The -TNI concerns me, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that evolves and how the general pattern evolves going into February and March. Especially the high latitude blocking.

The best case scenario if you want a warm and active spring is for the Nina to die out by shifting west. I don’t think there’s any support for that scenario to happen.

Like I said though, I’m excited. It’s been 7 years since we’ve had a Nina spring and summer... and this isn’t a low-end Nina either.


Thanks--I am hoping that we don't have a late spring--like 2013-15. some years we went straight from winter to summer--as in 1975 and 1978, when we went from very cold Aprils to very warm weather by mid-May.


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kpk33x
post Dec 28 2017, 11:11 PM
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Maybe it will be a year when it warms up when its "supposed to" (April, in this area).

But yes, we have been low on moisture. We had a drought last summer. We had a partial recovery in October into November. But since mid November very little. We have less than 0.4" rainfall in December. We're not setting up well for the farmers here but still time to reverse that before spring.


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 28 2017, 11:45 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Dec 29 2017, 12:11 AM) *
Maybe it will be a year when it warms up when its "supposed to" (April, in this area).

But yes, we have been low on moisture. We had a drought last summer. We had a partial recovery in October into November. But since mid November very little. We have less than 0.4" rainfall in December. We're not setting up well for the farmers here but still time to reverse that before spring.

The problem with droughts in this part of the country is how easy it is to wipe out the drought. You need a really stagnant weather pattern otherwise you’re bound to get a big rain producing system... and those systems could happen literally any time of the year.

Maybe this year will be one of those. The drought down south improved last week, but it doesn’t look like they’ll get much more help over the next week.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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alczervik
post Dec 29 2017, 05:29 AM
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I would expect a pretty cool spring. I believe the models are starting to show it as well.

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 1 2018, 06:57 PM
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CFS has a spectacular drought developing in the southern Plains, which FWIW, follows what happened in 2010-11. I've talked before in the winter thread about how the current drought situation is somewhat similar to this time in 2010-11.



Not saying the spring will be similar to 2011 as well. If a substantial southern Plains drought develops though, could end up making the warm season quite warm.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 1 2018, 07:00 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 1 2018, 11:38 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 1 2018, 05:57 PM) *
CFS has a spectacular drought developing in the southern Plains, which FWIW, follows what happened in 2010-11. I've talked before in the winter thread about how the current drought situation is somewhat similar to this time in 2010-11.



Not saying the spring will be similar to 2011 as well. If a substantial southern Plains drought develops though, could end up making the warm season quite warm.



We know what happened in Alabama 2011 wink.gif


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 2 2018, 12:54 AM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Jan 1 2018, 11:38 PM) *
We know what happened in Alabama 2011 wink.gif

That's where the caution comes in. This year and 2011 are both significant Ninas (this one likely moderate, 2011 strong)... but they're set up much different such that above average tornado activity is questionable.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Mid Tn. Man
post Jan 2 2018, 01:40 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 1 2018, 11:54 PM) *
That's where the caution comes in. This year and 2011 are both significant Ninas (this one likely moderate, 2011 strong)... but they're set up much different such that above average tornado activity is questionable.


Maybe so,but it's always a threat into the OV and Mid South into early spring.CPC/IRI shows the esno more =(MAM) than Nina,still alot to ponder right now,like if it's even going to be right


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ILStormwatcher
post Jan 2 2018, 03:14 PM
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Unless we see a flip to more moisture later January to February, then the Midwest is probably going to sty dry and droughty through Summer while the southern Plains into Dixie Alley and the Mid-Atlantic could get in on some severe action. Some hints at activity across the high plains as well, but the lower Midwest in particular looking pretty dry at this point with a chilly to cold start followed by a hot end to Spring.
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Seil79
post Jan 4 2018, 04:29 PM
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Latest weekly drought monitor indicates continued slow expansion of dryness across the CONUS. An up tick for the week of about 1 percent. While it is true this time of year offers an opportunity for recharging soil moisture large tracks of the Corn Belt and Plains are already lacking and we are on the upswing in daylight, which means evaporation will be increasing again. Every week that goes by with out meaningful precip and a wholesale pattern change brings us closer to substantial drought in the grain states.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 11 2018, 10:36 AM
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The Trans-Nino Index for October is in and it's increased for the 3rd month in a row... now sitting around -1.6.

For TNI's similar to this reading at this time of the year, there's been instances where it substantially rises in the coming months and goes weakly negative or even positive for the severe season.

2009-10: It was even more negative than this at this time of the year, didn't go positive until late summer... but that ended up being a backloaded severe season.

1996-97: It was -1.7 in October, ended up going positive by April

Needless to say since I only listed 2 examples, most of the time when we're sitting around or less than -1.6 in October, -TNI was seen the following year. However, there were plenty of years I didn't list that went from around -1.6 to a more weakly negative TNI like -0.3 or -0.5. For reference, the "tornado drought" of 2013-16 saw -TNI around -1.6 or stronger nearly all throughout.

Note... TNI isn't a perfect teller of the tornado season, as there've been numerous years that were very active but -TNI. The research done on TNI says you're more likely to have an active tornado season with +TNI, and more likely to have a historic tornado outbreak happen in a +TNI year.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/tni.data

Research: http://cpo.noaa.gov/sites/cpo/Webcasts/MAP...ns/1-15/Lee.pdf

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 11 2018, 10:46 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Gnutella
post Jan 11 2018, 08:52 PM
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What was the TNI trend in 2010-2011?
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Seil79
post Jan 12 2018, 11:37 AM
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The weekly drought monitor continued to indicate increased drought conditions across the Country last week. Still looking at pretty good drought signal across the Midwest and Plains and my confidence is increasing in that by the week.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 13 2018, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(Gnutella @ Jan 11 2018, 08:52 PM) *
What was the TNI trend in 2010-2011?

Started the year very negative in 2010 due to the west-based Nino... it trended toward neutral as the Nino collapsed from the east... went positive in September... very positive over the winter and spring.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 29 2018, 04:16 PM
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It's going to be interesting to see if this MJO makes it to phase 2. This could be posted in the winter and spring threads.

A 2012 paper examines the relationship between MJO phases and tornado outbreaks. It found that there's correlation between MJO being in phase 2 and spiked tornado activity in the US.

Depending on your memory (or level of care about the topic), the late February tornado outbreak of 2017 happened right after the MJO passed through phase 2.



A highly amplified MJO wave is ongoing and currently is about to enter phase 6. GFS and Euro have it reaching phase 7 in the second week of February, still pretty strongly amplified. GFS has the MJO starting to weaken as it moves slowly toward phase 8, reminiscent of the previous MJO wave (which started in phase 2).




Whether the MJO follows the previous MJO wave or continues to be highly amplified, passing through phase 2 by late February or even early March is realistic IMO. Or the third option, which would be quite anticlimactic after such a strong MJO wave, it'll just die out and go into the COD.

Will definitely be something to keep an eye on.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 29 2018, 05:32 PM
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Member No.: 29,453





I think it's safe to say that spring 2018 with a southern US drought... unless the dominant pattern this winter and the CFS monthly forecast don't verify.

Current drought status... Plains and deep south getting hit hard.



CFS forecast for February (red anomalies are >1" below average... deepest red is >3")



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 29 2018, 05:34 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96°)
Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Gnutella
post Feb 2 2018, 05:55 AM
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For what it's worth, Athens, GA received 2.05" of rain last weekend, which put the monthly rainfall total for January above normal by 0.58". Another rain event is forecast for Super Bowl Sunday too. In fact, it'll be perfect weather for sleeping in and watching football, with steady rain all day, easterly winds, and temperatures only rising into the 40s. In fact, there could be wintry precipitation at the onset Sunday morning, with temperatures in the mid-30s. I'm sure that these two rain events will put a nice dent in the developing drought here.

My gut tells me that the core of the heat will stay west of the Mississippi River this spring and summer, but that's just my gut. I could be wrong.
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