Long Range Spring 2018--Outlooks, Thoughts, and Discussions, Spring is only one season away Options

[Ahoff]

Touched 83 yesterday, 77 on Thursday, and making that run toward 80 again today. Really nice couple of days.

[NorEaster07]

Interestingly, only one of those was not a cool ENSO event... that we know of.

1973-74 and 1974-75 were Ninas and 1966-67 was a cool-neutral ENSO. Don't know what was going on in 1937-38 and 1940-41. 2003-04 was an outlier, it being a west-based Nino.

Interesting

[bingobobbo]

Endless winter causes Grand Rapids weatherman meltdown on air.

https://youtu.be/rdsABjAP8Yg

i can see his frustration because in high school I was known as tThe Weatherman and people always blamed ME if my forecast went awry!

[stuffradio]

i can see his frustration because in high school I was known as tThe Weatherman and people always blamed ME if my forecast went awry!

That was terrifying!

[alczervik]

On Thursday we hit 75. Ever since than we have had 3.5 days of the worst weather for mid April that I can remember.

For the first time in 5 weeks, CPC in the 8-14 day range doesn't have us in the below normal category.

[so_whats_happeni...]

Looks to be at average or slightly below average ocee the next week or so with the large departures on both ends of thr spectrum we should end up just around normal or slightly below in these parts by the end of the month. Can tell the pattern is changing around here but still crazy to see many trees without leaves going into mid and late april.

[bingobobbo]

The below-normal weather continues for us--I am thankful for this past Friday, which is now looking to be the only truly mild day of the first 22-plus of the month. This month will almost certainly be colder than April 2016, which I believe was the coldest April since 1996. If this month ends up colder than 1996 and 1995, it will be our coldest April since 1975, our chilliest ever.

[alczervik]

This week is a solid 5-8 degree below normal for us each day. I know I get criticized for saying stuff like this but how in the world can you expect a decent summer when you just had 6-8 weeks of complete *bleep* weather? Oh wait, just like 2009, you will get two weeks in April that are normal summer weather then right back to the the same *bleep*.

Hopefully I am wrong but it seems like all signs keep on pointing to below normal temps and no sun.

[MotownWX]

This week is a solid 5-8 degree below normal for us each day. I know I get criticized for saying stuff like this but how in the world can you expect a decent summer when you just had 6-8 weeks of complete *bleep* weather? Oh wait, just like 2009, you will get two weeks in April that are normal summer weather then right back to the the same *bleep*.

Hopefully I am wrong but it seems like all signs keep on pointing to below normal temps and no sun.

It'll be far worse than that. Our average high today is 59. My point n' click shows 40, 39, 47, 47, for the next four days. So we're in for a week of 12-16 degrees below average.

Our upcoming weekend looks balmy with mid-50s. Then I suddenly realize that's still about 5 degrees off average. I guess I'll take anything that doesn't involve winter jackets and ice scrapers at this point.

[bingobobbo]

This week is a solid 5-8 degree below normal for us each day. I know I get criticized for saying stuff like this but how in the world can you expect a decent summer when you just had 6-8 weeks of complete *bleep* weather? Oh wait, just like 2009, you will get two weeks in April that are normal summer weather then right back to the the same *bleep*.

Hopefully I am wrong but it seems like all signs keep on pointing to below normal temps and no sun.

Our coldest April of the 1970s (1975) was followed by our warmest May until 2015, a warm June, and then our hottest month of the entire decade. April 1995 was our coldest April since 1975, but that was followed by one of our all-time hottest summers, one that--unlike 1975--pretty much lasted until mid-October.

[alczervik]

Our coldest April of the 1970s (1975) was followed by our warmest May until 2015, a warm June, and then our hottest month of the entire decade. April 1995 was our coldest April since 1975, but that was followed by one of our all-time hottest summers, one that--unlike 1975--pretty much lasted until mid-October.

I do remember 1995 being extremely warm in the GL in the summer months.

Motown: February in April in the "D" carries on.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Fires rarely get any mention here... but check out the wording on the day 2 outlook. Extremely critical is the fire equivalent of high risks for severe weather, and this extremely critical covers most of New Mexico, NW Texas, western Oklahoma, and SW Kansas. The combination of extreme to exceptional drought and western troughs forming intense drylines is to blame.

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA TO THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

Dangerous fire-weather conditions are still expected across a large
portion of the Southwest and southern/central High Plains on
Tuesday. Very dry fuels and boundary-layer conditions, combined with
strong winds, will significantly increase the potential for rapid
fire spread and extreme behavior through much of the day, especially
from eastern New Mexico, through the Panhandles, and into southwest
Kansas and western Oklahoma. Moreover, a cold front passage and
associated wind shift (from west/southwest to northwest) during the
afternoon/evening will complicate firefighting efforts, as the
approximate southeastern flank of any initial large fires may become
rather expansive fire fronts later in the day.

The ongoing highlighted areas remain generally unchanged. The
extreme and critical areas were expanded slightly eastward across
parts of Texas and Oklahoma, primarily to account for recent
guidance and the very dry nature of fuels.

..Picca.. 04/16/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018/

...Synopsis...
***Dangerous, life-threatening fire weather conditions are likely on
Tuesday***

A progressive mid-level trough will migrate through the
Intermountain West early on D2/Tue and reach the Rockies by mid-day.
At the base of this trough, a well-timed speed max will eject across
the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains in conjunction with peak
heating hours. At the surface, a lee cyclone and trailing trough
will deepen from central Kansas southward toward the Big Bend area
of Texas, with very warm/dry airmass extending from the
trough/dryline westward through the Lower Colorado River Valley.
This synoptic pattern will result in widespread areas of higher-end
fire weather conditions, with the potential for large, fast-moving,
and life-threatening fire activity.

...Southern Rockies eastward into the southern/central Plains...
Critical conditions are expected to be ongoing very early in the
forecast period (12-15Z across central New Mexico and vicinity) in
response to sustained 15-25 mph westerly surface flow and very poor
overnight recovery. This area will expand dramatically throughout
the day as insolation/vertical mixing and a favorable surface
pressure gradient result in widespread areas of 30+ mph
west-southwesterly surface flow - especially within the extremely
critical delineation. Gusts in these areas may exceed 60 mph -
especially in central/northern New Mexico into south-central
Colorado beneath the mid-level speed max. Furthermore, the
antecedent airmass will be very dry across the region, with RH
values falling to as low as 3-10% in point forecast soundings within
the extremely critical area as temperatures rise into the 80s and
90s F (warmest nearer the dryline/surface trough). Surrounding the
extremely critical delineation, somewhat weaker surface winds and
higher RH values will exist during peak heating hours. Some fire
weather threat will likely exist well into the evening and overnight
given poor recovery and continued gusty surface winds. This threat
should also translate eastward into central Oklahoma/Kansas through
06Z as drier air advects eastward behind the progressive surface low
and trailing trough. Lastly, surface winds should gradually veer to
northwesterly through the evening, potentially complicating any
ongoing fire suppression efforts.

[ClicheVortex2014]

My first time mentioning the possibility for a severe weather/tornado outbreak in the April 10-12 timeframe was back on March 25, a full 2 weeks and 4 or 5 days before the April 13-15 tornado outbreak. It was a slam dunk of signs pointing to this event... the MJO, SOI, BSR, EAR, and RRWT all supported a big system pushing through in the same time frame.

My wording was pretty strong regarding the tornado potential, which I believe was justified, but when it came to the details of the event, it was pretty underwhelming due to VBV (veer-back-veer, in which a layer of the atmosphere has winds turning clockwise with height which destroys rotating updrafts, thus discouraging supercells and tornadoes). That was just one of the things that could go wrong when using organic signals to forecast a system well in advance, so that was unfortunate for the forecast. Still though, there've been 52 tornado reports over the 3 day span, and with NWS offices still out there surveying damage, that number will likely increase further.

Over the 3 days, there were 178 tornado warnings and 467 severe thunderstorm warnings, and somewhere around 750 reports of severe weather.

Worth watching for the MJO to enter phases 1 and 2. Assuming the MJO doesn't die before then, watch for a tornado outbreak around mid or mid-to-late April

Also the volatility of the SOI back into Mid March would equate to this time period
16 Mar 2018 1011.36 1006.15 5.26 4.81 0.71
17 Mar 2018 1012.51 1000.90 35.90 6.47 1.33
18 Mar 2018 1013.04 1006.25 12.83 7.15 1.58

Nice. And here's the corresponding 500mb heights.



The SOI has been highly variable over the past 2 weeks which implies unsettled weather 20 days from the date.

~43pt drop over 3 days in the same time line as the BSR...look out.

We've got the MJO moving through phase 2 (favors an increased chance for a major tornado outbreak) around April 12 + a system moving through east Asia on the 5th, which also points to the 12th (give or take a couple days) + BSR favoring a central trough in this time period. Solid.

GFS and Euro have differences in the size of the trough but both have a significant trough in what I'd correlate to the Plains/western Midwest.

BSR has a nasty central US trough around April 10-12.

This kind of setup is well known for causing some of the most notorious tornado outbreaks in recorded history. The true severe weather nuts here should immediately think of at least 2 events when you see this pattern.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 16 2018, 01:53 PM

[idecline]

...much cooler than average temperatures in California as a trough dips down from the NW...cool to 'modified' cold air will be streaming across the CONUS for the next week (or so) as it looks to be a 'zonal' flow with embedded waves (perturbations) in the atmosphere bringing storminess and perhaps igniting more severe weather into the late week...especially if the STJ hook-up brings initial instability into the mix...the first wave looks to bring lee cyclogensis into the plains by Thursday...with possible severe weather into the weekend for the 'favorite' areas...
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... ...and the BSR...looks like it did many times this past 'winter'...we are definitely not out of the woods yet...

WPC QPF's:
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...wet, wet, wet over the ArkLaTex region and into the SouthEast!...long needed moisture for many areas...

This post has been edited by idecline: Apr 16 2018, 06:13 PM

[ClicheVortex2014]

Good for the drought affected region indeed. Need much more rain than that to put much of a dent in it. And the fact that this may be convective precip probably isn't the best thing for them. Lightning strikes and drought don't go well together, and heavy precip doesn't allow the soil to soak it up very well.

With that said though I think it'll be advantageous... just not as good as it would be if it was a stratiform rain.

[NorEaster07]

Average Temp Rankings for 1st half of April...

More Top 10 Coldest than Warmest.

Impressive from Oklahoma to Canada border.

Average temp in Des Moines Iowa is 36.3° (-12.7 below normal).


April is colder than March so far in some areas but I have to assume it wont end like that given 2nd half of April it starts heating up more.


Kansas City Avg temp this month so far is 40.8°. March ended at 43.6°. The Coldest April there was in 1983 at 46.3°

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[MotownWX]

White-knuckle commute this morning in a layer of snow.

I think I've entered the movie Groundhog Day.

Will it take a massive summery Bermuda High to finally kick us out of the 35-45 temp range to something toward normal (60)? Did Earth stop the titling motion on its axis around March 1?

I see 55-60 forecast for next week, but I'll believe it only when it arrives.

[MotownWX]

April is colder than March so far in some areas but I have to assume it wont end like that given 2nd half of

Which is interesting as March averaged colder than February in a lot of places. We're going backwards.

[Fire/Rescue]

Looks to be at average or slightly below average ocee the next week or so with the large departures on both ends of thr spectrum we should end up just around normal or slightly below in these parts by the end of the month. Can tell the pattern is changing around here but still crazy to see many trees without leaves going into mid and late april.

Yea man for real....

The best I've got around my neck of the woods (no pun intended) are trees budding out with that familiar RED hue across the landscape while a few of the smaller bushes/trees are just beginning to flower out.

[ohiobuckeye45]

say whhhaaatttttttt?!?!?!

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