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> April 12th-15th Plains/MW/GL Winter Storm
joseph507123
post Apr 6 2018, 03:15 PM
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Another big storm in a week? Winter won't end.



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2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 72F

90F+ days: 0

Highest Heat Index: 72F
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ValpoSnow
post Apr 6 2018, 04:46 PM
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This will be a northern plains beast according to the GFS and realistically isn't that rare for early Spring.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 6 2018, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Apr 6 2018, 05:46 PM) *
This will be a northern plains beast according to the GFS and realistically isn't that rare for early Spring.

The frequency of storms this particular spring is rare. Parts of Montana are closing in on their snowiest winters on record.

For example Billings, MT is just 1" away.
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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grace
post Apr 6 2018, 04:59 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Apr 6 2018, 04:51 PM) *
The frequency of storms this particular spring is rare. Parts of Montana are closing in on their snowiest winters on record.

For example Billings, MT is just 1" away.



Wow! Most of those years cool ENSO years with exception of a couple
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joseph507123
post Apr 6 2018, 05:43 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Apr 6 2018, 04:46 PM) *
This will be a northern plains beast according to the GFS and realistically isn't that rare for early Spring.

This was May 2013 so I don't doubt it could happen.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

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Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

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Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 72F

90F+ days: 0

Highest Heat Index: 72F
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joseph507123
post Apr 8 2018, 08:07 PM
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Latest GFS shows a wave up north and then the backend going south.



--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

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Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 72F

90F+ days: 0

Highest Heat Index: 72F
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joseph507123
post Apr 8 2018, 11:49 PM
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Snow down to Arkansas in April?


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2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 72F

90F+ days: 0

Highest Heat Index: 72F
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 9 2018, 07:52 AM
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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Apr 9 2018, 12:49 AM) *
Snow down to Arkansas in April?

Seems like the long range GEM can be safely ignored for the time being. Climatology is the biggest strike against it, but there is a distinct lack of support from any other model. This includes recent runs of the GEM itself indicating the 00z run was a fluke.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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joseph507123
post Apr 10 2018, 07:06 AM
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2' in April? sure


Anyone have ECMWF map?


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2018

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Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 72F

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Middle of Nowher...
post Apr 10 2018, 09:50 AM
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Fantastic.

/sarcasm
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joseph507123
post Apr 10 2018, 10:11 AM
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Found ECMWF. This is something... blink.gif

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2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

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Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 72F

90F+ days: 0

Highest Heat Index: 72F
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MIDMIWeather
post Apr 10 2018, 01:43 PM
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ECM keeps trending colder for me. I wouldn't mind a nasty ice event to end the season.
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Snow____
post Apr 10 2018, 08:39 PM
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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Apr 10 2018, 11:11 AM) *
Found ECMWF. This is something... blink.gif

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This isnt Colorado .


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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joseph507123
post Apr 11 2018, 03:56 AM
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NAM forecasts starting


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2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 0

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 0

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 72F

90F+ days: 0

Highest Heat Index: 72F
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 11 2018, 08:38 AM
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QUOTE(joseph507123 @ Apr 11 2018, 04:56 AM) *
NAM forecasts starting

Beware of the sleet goblins:

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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ZumaRat
post Apr 11 2018, 09:03 AM
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Some fairly strong wording from Gaylord NWS office forecast discussion this morning.

QUOTE
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 321 AM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018

...Major storm system still likely...

Primary Forecast Concern...Pops and weather type through the period.

A deepening and very slow moving area of low pressure continues to
move toward the region Friday night and stalls out across the area
over the weekend and likely even into early next week. This is due
to strong upper level and surface blocking to the north. In
addition, the strong surface high is still shown to cycle in
a decent amount of cold low level air (especially over the weekend).
The strong baroclinic zone (thermal temperature gradient) will
likely yield a wide variety of precipitation types over relatively
short distances which happens to lie across northern Michigan which
makes this forecast extremely challenging. Models continue to
advertise a good amount of qpf (upwards of 2 inches). In addition,
models continue to trend farther south and colder which could result
in more solid and less liquid precipitation and given potential qpf
amounts some spots could see a LOT of snow. The ECMWF and now even
GFS model soundings for Gaylord (and points north) keep much of this
event mainly snow (exception may be Friday) which could easily add
up to a foot or more (yelp).
Even farther south soundings are on the
fringe of mainly all snow or a mix of rain and snow or perhaps even
some freezing rain. Potential remains for this system to have major
impacts on northern Michigan including but not limited to power
outages and serious travel difficulties. Stay tuned as this could
become very interesting if not historic
.
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dissident
post Apr 11 2018, 09:05 PM
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For the people who live in the Dakotas like myself... right in the bullseye. Here's hoping for a whooping.




This post has been edited by dissident: Apr 11 2018, 09:05 PM
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Middle of Nowher...
post Apr 11 2018, 10:11 PM
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QUOTE(dissident @ Apr 11 2018, 09:05 PM) *
For the people who live in the Dakotas like myself... right in the bullseye. Here's hoping for a whooping.


You can take my share if you want!

Being a farmer, I'd like the moisture.....but also would like it to you know, act like spring and thaw at some point lol.

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joseph507123
post Apr 12 2018, 12:51 AM
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uh oh


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2018

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Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 72F

90F+ days: 0

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ValpoSnow
post Apr 12 2018, 09:53 AM
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Technically outside of the date range of this thread, but still related.

NAM looking interesting for more April snow.


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