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> April 12th-15th Plains/MW/GL Winter Storm
MotownWX
post Apr 12 2018, 10:48 AM
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QUOTE(MIDMIWeather @ Apr 10 2018, 02:43 PM) *
ECM keeps trending colder for me. I wouldn't mind a nasty ice event to end the season.


Lol, I couldn't be more opposite. Nothing excites me about widespread tree damage and days without power. Hopefully you get the skating rink and I get plain rain, and we'll both be happy. cool.gif

I also wonder if it'll "end the season." That Canadian cold core isn't moving anywhere.
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dissident
post Apr 12 2018, 08:24 PM
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ValpoSnow
post Apr 12 2018, 10:20 PM
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ValpoSnow
post Apr 12 2018, 10:21 PM
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dissident
post Apr 12 2018, 11:50 PM
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dissident
post Apr 12 2018, 11:53 PM
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Hope we get dumped on. There's a bit of a dry slot around my area as I'm on a ridge in a higher elevation.. east of Watertown and west of Marshall and Madison it rises/drops around 750 - 900 feet (coteau des prairies).. since the winds are out of the NE there seems to be enhanced snowfall around where those hills are. The hills are pretty evident on I-29 between Brookings and Sisseton.

An area that escaped Glaciation during most previous ice age, more hilly than the surrounding areas to the east and west of it which are scrapped flat. Coteau des Prairies

https://cdplodge.com/about/coteau-des-prairies-legendary/

This post has been edited by dissident: Apr 13 2018, 12:03 AM
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joseph507123
post Apr 13 2018, 08:09 AM
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Rainbow now, snow later. ohmy.gif
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This post has been edited by joseph507123: Apr 13 2018, 08:10 AM


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 14

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 13 2018, 10:04 AM
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Wicked webcam views from Western SD

All traffic cameras:
http://www.safetravelusa.com/sd/cameras/

These two in particular ... Sturgis:
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Bridger:
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ValpoSnow
post Apr 13 2018, 12:13 PM
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Snow____
post Apr 13 2018, 01:25 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Apr 13 2018, 01:13 PM) *

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30 inches of heavy wet snow could be ugly. I wish it was here lol.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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joseph507123
post Apr 13 2018, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Apr 13 2018, 12:13 PM) *

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1:10 ratio is better for this storm.


--------------------
2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 5

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 14

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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dissident
post Apr 13 2018, 03:58 PM
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There's an obnoxious dry slot over SE South Dakota where I'm at now. I need to shut off the radar and just go to work and not let the inevitable irritate me and relax, lol. All the models have shown this strange hole around here that may or may not form but I just have to remind myself to not get upset at things I can't change, lol.


On the plus side we got some neat thundersleet this afternoon. Severe thunderstorm warnings for "hail" which was actually just really heavy pea to marble sized sleet pellets.

Obnoxious dry slot that some models unfortunately kind of predicted might happen... hopefully it fills in....



This post has been edited by dissident: Apr 13 2018, 04:07 PM
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Middle of Nowher...
post Apr 13 2018, 04:41 PM
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Can't say that I'm upset that I haven't seen much more than a couple of flurries. 20 miles south of Aberdeen SD.

Ridiculously sharp cutoff all afternoon just south of me.
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MIDMIWeather
post Apr 13 2018, 07:21 PM
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So we're pretty worried about ice here. Forecast is 0.25"-0.75" of ice - hoping the colder air pushes further south per the last model guidance. That would mean more sleet than freezing rain.

Not really too keen on the idea of power going out so we'll see.

Regardless, no generator but I'm all stocked up on food and booze!
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Middle of Nowher...
post Apr 13 2018, 08:11 PM
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QUOTE(Middle of Nowhere Guy @ Apr 13 2018, 04:41 PM) *
Can't say that I'm upset that I haven't seen much more than a couple of flurries. 20 miles south of Aberdeen SD.

Ridiculously sharp cutoff all afternoon just south of me.


Amended to can't see 50 feet lol.
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ValpoSnow
post Apr 13 2018, 09:14 PM
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0z NAM gives O'Hare quite the ice storm, as well as surrounding northern suburbs of Chicago. Has city proper just above freezing. Of course, the roads would likely be completely fine, trees and power lines would be the worry.
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dissident
post Apr 13 2018, 11:14 PM
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so far this snow is a bleeping non event like usual. There's a reason so many people ignore these forecasts.. because they always overestimate the bleeping snowfall amounts. Now here I am stuck at home taking off work when I could have worked at least half the night if not the full night for this non event that all the bleeping weather models predicted 12-18 inches, closed all the interstates and issued no travel advised, and so far it's one big bleeping dry slot/non event. Next time they predict a big storm I'm going to ignore them.

This is why people ignore forecasts because they ALWAYS overestimate.. like 80% of the snowfalls in my life and predicting a 70% chance of rain which ends up being maybe a 30% chance to cover their butts, meanwhile everyone just laughs at the forecasts because they are so pathetic.

Don't scare people into thinking we will get a foot of snow when we end up getting 4 inches. People get sick of that *bleep* and then just ignore the forecasts, which is what I'm finally going to start doing.

Yeah I got myself a little drunk to take advantage of the vacation I burned and because I suspected something like this would probably happen because like I mentioned it happens so much. Scare everyone into a non event and then wonder why people complain about forecasting accuracy.

This post has been edited by dissident: Apr 13 2018, 11:31 PM
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MotownWX
post Apr 14 2018, 05:24 AM
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dissident,

We should switch places. Over here, theyíve underpredicted all winter long.
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RobB
post Apr 14 2018, 08:55 AM
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QUOTE(dissident @ Apr 14 2018, 12:14 AM) *
so far this snow is a bleeping non event like usual. There's a reason so many people ignore these forecasts.. because they always overestimate the bleeping snowfall amounts. Now here I am stuck at home taking off work when I could have worked at least half the night if not the full night for this non event that all the bleeping weather models predicted 12-18 inches, closed all the interstates and issued no travel advised, and so far it's one big bleeping dry slot/non event. Next time they predict a big storm I'm going to ignore them.

This is why people ignore forecasts because they ALWAYS overestimate.. like 80% of the snowfalls in my life and predicting a 70% chance of rain which ends up being maybe a 30% chance to cover their butts, meanwhile everyone just laughs at the forecasts because they are so pathetic.

Don't scare people into thinking we will get a foot of snow when we end up getting 4 inches. People get sick of that *bleep* and then just ignore the forecasts, which is what I'm finally going to start doing.

Yeah I got myself a little drunk to take advantage of the vacation I burned and because I suspected something like this would probably happen because like I mentioned it happens so much. Scare everyone into a non event and then wonder why people complain about forecasting accuracy.



I must admit that I enjoyed this meltdown. Don't hold back smile.gif
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Snow____
post Apr 14 2018, 09:36 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Apr 14 2018, 09:55 AM) *
I must admit that I enjoyed this meltdown. Don't hold back smile.gif

Iím glad that Iím not the only one. The post before was canít be upset it didnít work out to full rant a few hours later.
Iíve been there myself in my younger years. Now I just accept things for whatí they are.


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Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
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