Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

6 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> April 12-14 Plains/MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Moderate Risk: Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Apr 10 2018, 07:25 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,448
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 10 2018, 06:51 PM) *
It's certainly deserving of a thread... I was gonna make the thread but you beat me to it. This is certainly one of those cases where the severe threat is greatest in the Plains... then we have to deal with the beloved debris clouds.

The warmth will certainly be welcomed though. This weekend is one of the biggest party weekends here (yet another weekend tradition that OU has distanced themselves from)... supposed to be sunny and in the upper 70's on Friday and partly cloudy and in low-mid 70's on Saturday. With all of the cold weather recently, this warmup is perfectly timed.

I just hope we don't skip Spring and jump straight to Summer. I'm ready for some open window weather and amd an ease up on the utility bills. Don't want to go from furnace to AC like has happened a few times since 2012 it seems.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 10 2018, 08:07 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,067
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 10 2018, 08:25 PM) *
I just hope we don't skip Spring and jump straight to Summer. I'm ready for some open window weather and amd an ease up on the utility bills. Don't want to go from furnace to AC like has happened a few times since 2012 it seems.

This is the coolest start to spring I remember. We've had Marchs colder than this one, but it warmed up in April. We're now looking at the 3rd week of April and beyond for this cold pattern to finally break, and there's no overwhelming signs of that happening yet.

One thing I will say that separates this from the doom and gloom of the spring thread is that there's been a pretty impressive amount of severe weather since mid-March given the 30-day mean temp looking like this.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Apr 10 2018, 09:04 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,448
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Yeah, I wasn't necessarily meaning Aprils have been cool, more they've been warmer than normal.

I'm big on morel mushrooms, and once the soil temps hit 50'ish degrees for 5-7 days its a good time to start looking. Facebook memories have been popping up since late March with precious years finds.

A normal season would be 3rd or 4th week of April start, so we're more on track for a normalish year, if we don't jump stright to mid to upper 70's once the cold breaks.

Back on topic, I'm just ready for some thunderstorms. Not going to lure myself into hoping for some strong/severe storms again, just give me multiple appearances of some good old fashion thunderstorms and I'll be good. Been few and far between the past few springs amd summers.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snow____
post Apr 11 2018, 12:02 AM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,312
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 10 2018, 10:04 PM) *
Yeah, I wasn't necessarily meaning Aprils have been cool, more they've been warmer than normal.

I'm big on morel mushrooms, and once the soil temps hit 50'ish degrees for 5-7 days its a good time to start looking. Facebook memories have been popping up since late March with precious years finds.

A normal season would be 3rd or 4th week of April start, so we're more on track for a normalish year, if we don't jump stright to mid to upper 70's once the cold breaks.

Back on topic, I'm just ready for some thunderstorms. Not going to lure myself into hoping for some strong/severe storms again, just give me multiple appearances of some good old fashion thunderstorms and I'll be good. Been few and far between the past few springs amd summers.

I agree. I love severe weather but I honestly just love a casual thunderstorm. My favorite days are when we have nice complex come through and its just thunder and lightning for a few hours. I like severe but its usually quick hitting and its over. But big mcs come through and you get thunderstorm action for several hours and its so relaxing. Thats why I dont mind when they come through and may mess up potential for later in a day. Because betting on a supercell to come through is like playing the lotto. Id rather a big complex and Ill get my fix. Or a nice bow to come through.
Like with the last risk. I was glad to have gotten those storms the night before because I was mostly missed the entire day and the line broke apart and I was left with some showers. While south and north were hit pretty hard throughout the day.

I know that was a bit of rambling but oh well lol.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ben
post Apr 11 2018, 02:45 AM
Post #25




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 237
Joined: 3-February 08
From: Athens, AL
Member No.: 13,418





Been a long, long time since I have been on here. Went through the April 27, 2011 outbreak with a heavily damaged house, then a damaged apartment on April 28, 2014. So, people who want the severe storms can keep them. lol. I have seen a big tornado now (Which was the Hackleburg tornado when it was coming through Athens, AL), and I don't get as excited in a giddy way as I used to. I came back on because it seems the Southeastern US doesn't seem to get as much coverage as the OV, MW and NE does (spare any major outbreaks), and I think this time, it's looking more ominous for the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley. Here is the new Day 3 severe weather outlook by the SPC. An enhanced risk is up from Southwestern Missouri southward through East Texas and Northwestern Louisiana. There is a 30% chance of severe weather occurring (on this report) within 25 miles of a given point. This is just the beginning, but pretty noteworthy that it is on Day 3. The meteorologists here in Huntsville have been paying more attention to Saturday for the past couple of days, and are beginning to remark on possibilities. The last I heard was there could conceivably be 1, 2 or 3 rounds up here in North Alabama, but they just need to see how the weather models look by Thursday. Hope I do this image right. Sorry if I didn't!



Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
12" snow for the 2010-2011 Winter Season....

9" of snow on January 10, 2011...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Apr 11 2018, 05:30 AM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,448
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Day 3 Text. There is also a Day 4 slight risk but tht would be a separare regional thread for the SE

QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Apr 11 2018

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI VICINITY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AREA...EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISKS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are expected to develop Friday afternoon and
continue into the overnight hours -- centered over a zone extending
from Missouri to the Sabine River Valley.

...Synopsis...
An upper low/trough is forecast to shift slowly eastward out of the
Rockies and into the central and southern Plains Friday, with
gradually strengthening ridges flanking the trough resulting in
evolution of high-amplitude flow across the CONUS.

At the surface, a low initially progged to lie in the southeast NE
vicinity is expected to shift very slowly east along the IA/MO
border area. A trailing cold front will march more quickly eastward
across the central and southern Plains, and is expected to reach the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley region by the end of the period.

...Portions of Iowa southward to east Texas/Louisiana...
Northward return of low-level Gulf moisture across the south-central
U.S. combined with gradual mid-level cooling ahead of the
approaching upper trough will allow marked diurnal warm-sector
destabilization. With around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE progged to
evolve immediately ahead of the front from southwest Iowa southward
to eastern Oklahoma, and up to 2000 J/kg southward into parts of
east Texas and western Louisiana, vigorous afternoon thunderstorm
development is expected.

Initial storm mode will likely be supercellular, with
veering/rapidly increasing flow with height supporting locally
intense updrafts. Large hail and locally damaging winds, and
possibly a few tornadoes, can be expected near and ahead of the
front in a north-south zone. With time, upscale growth of
convection is expected -- mainly from the Ozarks area southward
where a more moist/unstable airmass supports widespread convection
through the evening and overnight. While storms/severe risk will
likely wane over northern portions of the outlook area during the
evening, at least some degree of all-hazard severe risk should
linger into the overnight hours from Arkansas into east Texas and
Louisiana.

..Goss.. 04/11/2018
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Apr 11 2018, 11:14 AM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,448
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Attached Image





QUOTE
FRIDAY 4/13
Severe thunderstorms spreading eastward from morning into evening in west and central IA, extreme east NE, east KS, east OK, east TX, west and north LA, AR, west, central and northeast MO, TORCON - 5 in south IA, MO, AR areas; 4 rest of area, except 3 north IA. Severe thunderstorms may spread overnight into east MO, west-central and south IL, west KY, west TN, northwest MS. TORCON - 3. A chance that the overnight storms will spread into northeast, central and southwest MS, southeast LA. TORCON - 2 to 3. Locally heavy rain in the above areas.

The approach of an upper trough prompts a low central in eastern KS and NE and northward flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as far as a warm front in central IA. Low-level wind shear will be more than enough for tornadoes in this moist flow, but morning showers and numerous afternoon thunderstorms may hold down instability. Additionally, the upper trough does not appear to have an eastward surge to bring in colder air aloft, again holding down instability.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 02:44 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,067
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





So I understand SPC's enhanced issuance and glad they didn't go with hatched 30%. I think an enhanced risk for damaging winds is reasonable.

But what I don't understand is Dr. Forbes' 5 TORCON. Not only does his discussion not add up to his forecast (giving reasons why the instability could be lower), what I see on the NAM and GFS doesn't look to warrant a 5.

I don't see the tornado threat being that high... especially supercellular tornado threat... due to the VBV profile. The VBV should destroy/largely disrupt rotating updrafts, and by definition, a supercell is a thunderstorm with a rotating updraft.

I'm not saying supercells can't happen with VBV, because that's not true, but they don't last that long. So tornadogenesis would have to happen very quickly for a supercellular tornado threat... and any tornado it produces wouldn't last long.

If it weren't for that, this would be a much scarier setup. But I just don't see this being much of a tornado day other than perhaps some overnight tornadoes with the squall that eventually evolves in the east half of Arkansas into Mississippi and western Tennessee.

As merely an undergrad, I don't feel comfortable with completely dismissing Dr. Forbes. I'll just assume that this is one of the many things where there's more to it that a legend like Dr. Forbes knows that I don't, but I have my concerns.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 11 2018, 03:16 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
idecline
post Apr 11 2018, 05:50 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,263
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 02:44 PM) *
So I understand SPC's enhanced issuance and glad they didn't go with hatched 30%. I think an enhanced risk for damaging winds is reasonable.

But what I don't understand is Dr. Forbes' 5 TORCON. Not only does his discussion not add up to his forecast (giving reasons why the instability could be lower), what I see on the NAM and GFS doesn't look to warrant a 5.

I don't see the tornado threat being that high... especially supercellular tornado threat... due to the VBV profile. The VBV should destroy/largely disrupt rotating updrafts, and by definition, a supercell is a thunderstorm with a rotating updraft.

I'm not saying supercells can't happen with VBV, because that's not true, but they don't last that long. So tornadogenesis would have to happen very quickly for a supercellular tornado threat... and any tornado it produces wouldn't last long.

If it weren't for that, this would be a much scarier setup. But I just don't see this being much of a tornado day other than perhaps some overnight tornadoes with the squall that eventually evolves in the east half of Arkansas into Mississippi and western Tennessee.

As merely an undergrad, I don't feel comfortable with completely dismissing Dr. Forbes. I'll just assume that this is one of the many things where there's more to it that a legend like Dr. Forbes knows that I don't, but I have my concerns.


VBV is a term idee doesn't know by heart...and what, where and how it deteriorates tornado chances?


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
idecline
post Apr 11 2018, 06:00 PM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,263
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





...even so...some AccuWeather mets are 'predicting' a 'lot' of tornadoes... dry.gif

From:https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...ern-us/70004655

QUOTE
AccuWeather Storm Warning Meteorologists are estimating that between two and four dozen tornadoes may be reported with this multiple-day event. Most of the storms capable of producing tornadoes are likely to be from late Friday afternoon to Friday evening.


idee's coloring rolleyes.gif

...and this WV loop looks very ominous indeed...IMHO
Attached Image

...a high in Mexico with an arcing sub-tropical moisture feed and a strong low heading for the Rockies...well?


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 06:05 PM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,067
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 11 2018, 06:50 PM) *
VBV is a term idee doesn't know by heart...and what, where and how it deteriorates tornado chances?

Veer-back-veer

So normally in severe weather episodes the winds veer (turn counterclockwise) with height which helps make updrafts rotate. But with a veer-back-veer profile, the winds do exactly what it sounds like... it turns counterclockwise, clockwise, and then counterclockwise again.

Think of stirring a cup of coffee counterclockwise; a little counterclockwise vortex form. But then start stirring the opposite way, clockwise... there'll be a lot of turbulence, you may even spill some coffee if it's too full, and the vortex will cease to exist.

Here's a great example of it. The winds go from southerly at the surface to southwesterly at 1km to westerly at 3km (veering), but at 6km the winds go "back" to southwesterly.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
idecline
post Apr 11 2018, 06:22 PM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,263
Joined: 27-May 10
From: uncertain
Member No.: 22,866





...thanks for the lesson...idee understands some...mostly by looking at satellite pictures since 8 yr. old (50 yrs)...and the rotational veering is the 'potential' for a meso-cyclone to rotate as a 'storm'...i never looked at skew-T's until you posted them...but i am lazy except for a quick glance at them...even short term 'stacked' winds could create a strong short term tornado...especially in what looks to a very unstable environment...(colder than 'normal' air rushing into this system...with a 'snowstorm' to follow! for some)

...hopefully it is not a epic outbreak...idee sees a lot of potential very damaging winds...and perhaps tumbling winds in the mid-atmosphere...creating a few to several potent meso-cyclones?

...ps...Dr. Forbes might always be holding a few 'aces' that he doesn't want to reveal... wink.gif


--------------------

"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
- Max Planck

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 07:13 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,067
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(idecline @ Apr 11 2018, 07:00 PM) *
...even so...some AccuWeather mets are 'predicting' a 'lot' of tornadoes... dry.gif

Probably Henry Margusity laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Apr 11 2018, 07:52 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,448
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 07:13 PM) *
Probably Henry Margusity laugh.gif

Just curious, no more, no less, but what has changed from when it was in the BSR timeframes. I was looking forward to this spot in time back when you were hyped on it in the long range Spring thread and seen it was finally mentioned by SPC so created the thread. Think modeling could be missing something?

Kinda disappointed to be removed from Forbes initial thoughts a few days back and not even in a marginal per SPC, but was still intrigued by it at the same time.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 08:15 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,067
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 11 2018, 08:52 PM) *
Just curious, no more, no less, but what has changed from when it was in the BSR timeframes. I was looking forward to this spot in time back when you were hyped on it in the long range Spring thread and seen it was finally mentioned by SPC so created the thread. Think modeling could be missing something?

Kinda disappointed to be removed from Forbes initial thoughts a few days back and not even in a marginal per SPC, but was still intrigued by it at the same time.

All the methods that indicated this system (5 methods if I recall correctly) only told us that a system would be here in this time frame... which they did very well.

What those methods can't tell us is the presence of the things that can go wrong with a severe weather setup. Capping, excessive clouds/rain in the warm sector, VBV, and so on.

The thing that probably hyped this event up the most was the MJO phase 2 correlation with violent tornado outbreaks. I posted this in the spring thread a while ago as a follow-up.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 29 2018, 03:10 PM) *
QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 29 2018, 02:18 PM) *
The thing that could hold this event back is if the PV sticks around in the east, perhaps like it's expected to do, but definitely even more so if it persists longer than it's currently shown.





So there's a substantially heightened threat for a tornado outbreak if the upper-level pattern matches a loading pattern while in phase 2 MJO. I don't know if this matches the loading pattern, but I'd imagine it's somewhere close. However, at this point, I don't see this being a violent tornado outbreak (at least 1 EF4+) mainly because of the VBV. Thankfully for those who published the case study/correlation, they didn't say phase 2 + loading pattern is always a violent tornado outbreak.

I don't remember when I first started talking about this event, but it's been over 2 weeks for sure. That's a big win for all the methods that were showing this event.

I will say if the VBV is weaker than it's being shown, which I think is hypothetically possible, then maybe it won't be such a big deal.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 11 2018, 08:20 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Apr 11 2018, 08:17 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 43,020
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 08:13 PM) *
Probably Henry Margusity laugh.gif


Actually, he is no longer with AccuWeather. I did (do) think he is better with severe weather than winter storms. He's decent w when it comes to that aspect of weather.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Apr 11 2018, 08:35 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,448
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2018, 08:15 PM) *
All the methods that indicated this system (5 methods if I recall correctly) only told us that a system would be here in this time frame... which they did very well.

What those methods can't tell us is the presence of the things that can go wrong with a severe weather setup. Capping, excessive clouds/rain in the warm sector, VBV, and so on.

The thing that probably hyped this event up the most was the MJO phase 2 correlation with violent tornado outbreaks. I posted this in the spring thread a while ago as a follow-up.

So there's a substantially heightened threat for a tornado outbreak if the upper-level pattern matches a loading pattern while in phase 2 MJO. I don't know if this matches the loading pattern, but I'd imagine it's somewhere close. However, at this point, I don't see this being a violent tornado outbreak (at least 1 EF4+) mainly because of the VBV. Thankfully for those who published the case study/correlation, they didn't say phase 2 + loading pattern is always a violent tornado outbreak.

I don't remember when I first started talking about this event, but it's been over 2 weeks for sure. That's a big win for all the methods that were showing this event.

I will say if the VBV is weaker than it's being shown, which I think is hypothetically possible, then maybe it won't be such a big deal.

Yeah, I wasn't saying you were all in on it or anything, just remember a few posts and mentioning around the 12th, which was spot on.

48 hours out it's kind of hard to ignore modeling trends, but as you pointed out Forbes while not always correct, usually doesn't overhype like a Timmer or other source.

I'll just be happy having some nice weather end with a good thunderstorm and assurance that Spring will soon take control, probably won't get squat but I'm used to it laugh.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ColoradoChinook
post Apr 11 2018, 09:43 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 529
Joined: 16-December 14
Member No.: 30,118





significant tornado parameter at 45 hr (Friday). This is looking pretty robust for tornadoes, with 0-1 km SRH impressive on the east side of this corridor.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 09:48 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,067
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





There are some spots along the cold front where VBV isn't that strong... might be negligible? Goes from winds at 215 degrees down to 200 (with 180 being southerly and 270 being westerly)



Up near the low there's actually VBVBV. First one goes from 190 to 182... veers to 207 and back to 188. If that's not enough backing to be detrimental then this is a big area of concern due to the instability/shear profiles in addition to the sub-990mb low in the area.



I don't know if there's such thing as negligible VBV... but 00z NAM hasn't lost it.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 11 2018, 09:49 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2018, 10:00 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,067
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





3km with semi-discrete activity that quickly becomes messy. Symptom of VBV.





Up north is a bit messy too... no signs of long-lived cells



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/24/17)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

6 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th April 2018 - 11:07 PM