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> April 12-14 Plains/MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level; Day 1 Moderate Risk: Forecasts and OBS
Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Apr 12 2018, 05:27 AM
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QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN MISSOURI SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS/NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWEST IOWA SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS...AND EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF COASTAL REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are expected to develop Friday afternoon and
continue into the overnight hours -- centered over a zone extending
from Missouri southward across the Arklatex region.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough initially over the Rockies will shift
gradually eastward into the central U.S., surrounding a deepening
closed low moving across Kansas/Nebraska through the second half of
the period.

At the surface, a low progged to reside in the vicinity of southeast
Nebraska at the start of the period will gradually approach/reach
northwest Missouri, while a strong/trailing cold front sweeps
quickly eastward/southeastward across the central and southern
Plains. By the end of the period, a warm front should extend
eastward from the low across the Midwest, while the cold front is
progged to reside in the vicinity of the mid and lower Mississippi
Valley. The advancing front will contribute to development of
strong/severe storms Friday afternoon and evening.

...Mid and lower Missouri Valley southward across the Arklatex...
An increasingly favorable environment for severe storms is forecast
to evolve during the day Friday, ahead of the advancing cold front.
As the deepening upper system shifts slowly eastward, a very strong
deep-layer wind field will overspread the evolving warm sector.
Diurnal heating combined with low-level moistening beneath cooling
mid-level temperatures will result in moderate destabilization
during the afternoon, with up to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE over
northern portions of the risk area ahead of the front, and 2000 to
2500 J/kg progged to evolve from the Arklatex region southward.

Operational as well as CAM output suggest isolated storm development
will occur by late afternoon over the eastern Kansas/western
Missouri/southwest Iowa area, with more widespread convection
developing across Arkansas/east Texas/northern Louisiana. Storm
mode farther north appears likely to remain cellular -- with the
environment supportive of strong/rotating updrafts. As such, large
hail is expected, along with a few damaging gusts. In addition, the
risk for a couple of tornadoes is also evident, with overall severe
risk only limited by what appears likely to remain sparse storm
coverage.

Farther south, storm mode remains more questionable/less certain --
especially as storms become more widespread. Guidance agrees that
an eventual line or band of storms -- though with attendant severe
risk -- will eventually evolve as the front advances across the
Arklatex through the evening. Initially however, more isolated
storm mode may be maintained during the afternoon. Given
veering/increasing flow with height, and greater CAPE expected than
areas farther north, very large hail, damaging winds, and potential
for a few tornadoes exists -- one or two of which may be strong.
Uncertainty with respect to evolution of storm mode, and where the
greatest risk may ultimately evolve, precludes an upgrade to
moderate risk at this time. However, given the anticipated
background thermodynamic and kinematic environment, higher-end
potential evident across the Arkansas and Arklatex vicinity suggests
potential for a later outlook upgrade as details become more clear.

Overnight, storms across Missouri should diminish in
coverage/intensity given a narrow warm/moist sector expected ahead
of the front. However, the aforementioned upscale growth into a
northeast-to-southwest band of storms from the Mississippi Delta
region southwest into east Texas will likely be accompanied by
severe risk well into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 04/12/2018
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Apr 12 2018, 05:28 AM
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Day 3 also into this region

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QUOTE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
ALABAMA SOUTHWARD TO EASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THE
ALABAMA COAST...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID SOUTH
SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISKS...AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are expected across the Mid South and
central Gulf Coast regions Saturday.

...Synopsis...
Continued slow eastward progression of the central U.S. upper
low/trough is expected Saturday, with the trough acquiring a more
neutral to perhaps slightly negative tilt with time. Meanwhile,
ridging on either side of the trough will prevail over the East and
the West, though the next/northeast Pacific upper trough will
approach the Pacific Northwest by Sunday morning.

At the surface, an occluded low will shift gradually across the
mid-Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest with time, while a
trailing cold front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf
Coast states through 15/12Z. A zone of strong/severe storms is
expected to accompany the advance of the surface boundary.

...Mid South/Tennessee Valley into the central Gulf Coast states...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing over
western fringes of the outlook area Saturday morning. The
associated cloud cover casts some uncertainty with respect to degree
of warm-sector destabilization which will be possible downstream.
Greatest CAPE will likely evolve from central Alabama south to the
central Gulf Coast, as southwest flow aloft should carry thicker
cloud debris across the Tennessee Valley region.

As the airmass destabilizes, expect reintensification of storms
near/ahead of the advancing front, with organization aided by strong
low- to mid-level flow likely to exceed 50 to 60 kt in the 850 to
500 mb layer over portions of the Alabama vicinity by late
afternoon. While somewhat unidirectional/southerly flow should
limit low-level shear to some degree, and roughly front-parallel
flow and linear frontal forcing suggests linear storm mode, damaging
winds can be expected with passage of the frontal storm band. Hail
-- and a tornado or two -- will also be possible, particularly with
southward extent. A gradual decrease in storm intensity/severe risk
should commence later in the evening, as convection reaches the
southern Appalachians and Florida Panhandle.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley...
A highly conditional severe risk may extend north across the Ohio
Valley into parts of the Illinois/Indiana vicinity, as the occluded
low/front shift eastward across this region. If ample heating
beneath steep mid-level lapse rates can occur, low-topped storms may
evolve, within an area of ample shear. Though this scenario is
quite uncertain at best, potential for a very isolated, strongly
diurnal, all-hazards risk deserves mention at this time.

..Goss.. 04/12/2018
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 09:08 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 12 2018, 06:27 AM) *
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Apr 12 2018, 09:18 AM
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Wow ... who wants to handle the loaded gun? Can the cap be broken though?

Edit: SW IA on Friday evening along the warm front from the 12z NAM ... Reflectivity indicates some storms on the cold front in this vicinity so the triple point is probably the place to watch. We'll see what happens, but it looks pretty gnarly from where I'm sitting.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Apr 12 2018, 09:22 AM
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 09:37 AM
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I'm liking SW IA for the greatest tornado potential. VBV is at a minimum on 12z NAM and this sounding, which is very conducive for tornadoes on its own, is just east of the seasonably strong 992mb low, which will add extra spin.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Apr 12 2018, 10:35 AM
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QUOTE
TODAY 4/12
Probably no severe thunderstorms. TORCON near zero

FRIDAY 4/13
Severe thunderstorms in IA, MO, AR, east KS, east OK, east TX, west and north LA,extreme west-central IL, spreading overnight into west and north MS, west half TN, west KY, south IL, northwest AL. TORCON - 5 north LA, northeast TX, east OK, AR, MO except southeast; 4 - IA, southeast MO, MS; 3 - southeast TX, east KS, west-central IL; 2-3 rest of area.

An upper trough spawns a surface low near the KS/NE border that pulls moist, unstable air as far north as a warm front in central IA. A moderately strong low-level jet in the warm sector gives shear more than enough for tornadoes. It appears that supercells will form, gradually increasing in coverage and into a squall line overnight.
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Apr 12 2018, 10:36 AM
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QUOTE
SATURDAY 4/14
Severe thunderstorms in IN, west and central KY, west and middle TN, MS, AL, southeast LA, western FL panhandle, spreading overnight into western GA, central FL panhandle. TORCON - 3 southeast LA, south MS, south AL, west FL panhandle; 2-3 rest of area

As the upper trough continues eastward slowly, a surface low moves across northern MO and into IL, while a warm front moves into northern IN. The low-level jet may weaken somewhat, and the Midwest may only develop severe storms if morning clouds burn off enough to allow instability. From TN southward, storms will likely be mostly in a squall line with embedded circulations that might give tornadoes.
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Apr 12 2018, 10:37 AM
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QUOTE
SUNDAY 4/15
Severe thunderstorms in east OH, extreme southwest PA, east KY, WV except northeast, west and central VA, NC, east TN, SC, GA, east FL panhandle and FL peninsula. TORCON - 2 to 3

A squall line continues eastward across the Southeast, while storms may develop in east OH and parts of the Mid-Atlantic in areas where sun breaks out and increase instability. Instability will be limited, but a strong low-level jet will allow damaging gusts in the strongest storms.
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Apr 12 2018, 12:01 PM
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ILN mentioning a low end threat of severe being possible. Also saying saturday night might need to be watched closely with a surface low moving by. They must be slightly concerned for spin ups.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Much of the Ohio Valley will still be warm sectored on Friday night,
with a warm front stretching from northwest Indiana across Lake
Erie. An active (or at least wet) period of weather is expected
through the weekend, in an increasingly amplified upper level
pattern. Ridging will envelop the eastern third of the CONUS, with a
deep trough moving out of the mountain states.

With as amplified as the incoming system is appearing to be, it is
no surprise that its progression is expected to slow, keeping
chances for precipitation in place through the entire weekend. The
first batch of precipitation early on Saturday appears mainly driven
by upper-level forcing and convergence on the nose of an 850mb jet.
Thus, it may be convective, but should at least still be elevated,
as surface based instability is not really expected to be in place
yet. Based on the time of day (with the activity moving into the ILN
CWA after 09Z) and the signal from several models, this activity
should weaken with time -- leading to breaks in the steadier
precipitation by Saturday afternoon. PoPs are thus highest in the
western third of the CWA during the morning, tapering off somewhat
over the next few hours.

Another round of forcing -- focused more in the low levels -- will
move into the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is a
well-defined surface cold front expected to move across the area, as
well as a surface low, which will eventually occlude as the warm
sector pinches off over Ohio on Sunday morning. Overall, the
greatest chance of precipitation appears to be early Sunday Morning,
with a quick lessening in chances after the cold front has passed
through during the late morning through early afternoon hours.

Though nothing is clear cut, there is at least some low-end
potential for hazards with this system. Strong meridional flow will
support a good feed of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, with enough
instability to support a chance of thunderstorms, especially on
Saturday afternoon and evening. The persistent feed of moisture
(with precipitable water values increasing to around 1.25-1.50
inches) might support some threat of heavy rain. A traditional
severe threat looks somewhat unlikely, with poor spatial and
temporal alignment of the wind fields / instability / forcing.
Nonetheless, with a surface low moving through the area at some
point Saturday night into Sunday morning, the situation will be
worth keeping a watch on.
If future forecasts do bring these
elements more into alignment, some severe threat could exist,
particularly in the southwestern half of the forecast area from
Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning
.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 12:03 PM
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Experimental HRRR doesn't have much near the low, but it has 2 rows of severe storms popping in the south. I believe the pre-frontal cells will have the greatest tornado potential because I think VBV is weak there, but unfortunately, I can't check that with experimental HRRR like I can with NAM/GFS.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Apr 12 2018, 12:27 PM
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Reed Timmer


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QUOTE
FRIDAY: here are my updated target areas for severe weather, greatest potential for tornadoes on Friday afternoon. Arc of supercells with isolated #tornado threat will form first by mid afternoon far southeast NE/southwest IA. Backed surface winds along surface low track should enhanced SRH there. Also potential for prefrontal southern mode later in afternoon/evening from far northeast TX into southern AR where long 0-1 km shear vectors will be present. These two modes are highlighted in pink. Should be more of a straight-line wind/hail event in between (red).
AccuWeather

Tornado Safe Certified Shelters
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 12:29 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 12 2018, 01:27 PM) *
Reed Timmer


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Saw that. Unusually conservative for him. I was expecting him to start screaming about wedges.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_WeatherMonger_*
post Apr 12 2018, 12:43 PM
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SPC taking their time with new Day 2
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Apr 12 2018, 12:54 PM
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New day 2
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QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
SOUTHERN IA TO NORTHEAST TX AND NORTHERN LA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED FROM IA AND SOUTHEAST NE TO EAST TX AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT FROM FAR SOUTHERN MN TO THE NORTHWEST GULF COASTAL REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are expected to develop Friday afternoon and
continue into the overnight hours extending from Iowa and part of
the middle Missouri Valley southward across the Arklatex region, and
lower Mississippi Valley. All severe hazards are possible with very
large hail and a few tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong,
being the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough moving through and amplifying across the western
states into the Rockies during D1, will undergo further
amplification Friday into Friday night across much of the central
United States. An embedded closed low, likely forming by the start
of D2 across the central Rockies, is expected to deepen as it tracks
through the central Plains toward the mid Missouri Valley.
Meanwhile, an upstream shortwave trough digging southeast through
AZ/NM to far west TX and northern Mexico by later Friday night will
aid in the expected amplification of the central Plains parent
trough.

Given the slow eastward shift of the large closed mid-upper level
low, the associated surface low is forecast to move from near the
north-central KS/NE border into southeast NE to near Omaha, where it
should occlude Friday night. By mid-late Friday afternoon, a warm
front will extend east across IA (generally in vicinity of I-80),
while a cold front trails southwest from the low into south-central
KS to western OK and the TX Panhandle. A dryline, mixing eastward,
is expected to extend south from a secondary low near ICT through
east-central OK into central TX Friday afternoon. The cold front is
expected to sweep east Friday night toward the middle and lower
Mississippi Valley.

...Eastern NE/IA to northern and western MO/eastern KS...
The Enhanced and Slight risk area, including the significant severe
potential, have been expanded north across northern MO, more of IA
and eastern NE, given run-to-run consistencies and confidence of the
ECMWF and NAM continuing to show the warm front moving into southern
IA before the start of D2.

An increasingly favorable environment for severe storms is forecast
to evolve during the day Friday, across the northern extent of the
warm sector, ahead of the advancing cold front. As the deepening
upper system shifts slowly eastward, a very strong deep-layer wind
field will overspread the evolving warm sector. Diurnal heating
combined with low-level moistening beneath cooling mid-level
temperatures will result in moderate destabilization during the
afternoon, with MUCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg from eastern KS to
southeast NE and southern IA.

Operational and CAM output suggest discrete storm development will
occur by late afternoon near the southeast NE low and southward
along the cold front and dry line. These storms will track quickly
to the north-northeast as strengthening deep-layer wind fields
spread across the warm sector. The environment will support
strong/rotating updrafts, with very large hail and a tornado threat
expected. A strong tornado or two will be possible, especially
across parts of northern MO into southern IA. Farther north, very
steep midlevel lapse rates associated with the EML suggest hail,
some very large, will be possible north of the warm front, with a
marginal risk extending into far southern MN.

...Rest of MO to Arklatex, east TX and lower Mississippi Valley...
Although stronger forcing for ascent is not expected to spread
across the southern extent of the D2 severe risk areas until Friday
night, a modifying warm sector becoming moderately unstable and
strongly sheared will support strong to severe storms from Friday
afternoon into the overnight. Mixed-layer CAPE up to 2500 J/kg
suggests sustained updrafts will be likely with storm rotation.
This will result in all severe hazards being possible. The Enhanced
and Slight risk areas have been expanded east to the lower
Mississippi Valley region, as the a strong southerly low-level jet
shifts toward western MS Friday night. Mixed storm modes, initially
cellular, are expected with the mode possibly becoming linear as
stronger forcing for ascent spreads across this region Friday night.
Given some uncertainty in the overall evolution of storms across
this part of the severe risk areas, a moderate risk is not being
introduced at this time.

..Peters.. 04/12/2018
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post Apr 12 2018, 12:53 PM
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This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 12 2018, 12:54 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 12:54 PM
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Large day 2 enhanced with 30% hatched. Still no mention of VBV.

I guess I'm in a win-win situation here. I called for an outbreak on April 12 over 2 weeks ago, and I was only 1 day off. If this verifies, that's a win.

At the same time, I think VBV could cause the forecast to bust. If it does, that's a win. If it doesn't, then I just forecast an outbreak over 2 weeks in advance, being only 1 day off from my original "forecast".

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 12 2018, 12:54 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Apr 12 2018, 01:10 PM
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With the fairly decent north shift on the new day 2, makes me wonder if there will be a north shift of the risk areas when the current day 3 becomes the day 2 later tonight.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 01:21 PM
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Some of the CAMs are pretty impressive. NSSL has a supercell that tracks 300 miles.




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 03:15 PM
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18z NAM has less VBV in the profiles... probably negligible on this run

Pre-frontal environment in Arkansas


SW IA


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2018, 03:24 PM
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Fairly large 75 sigtor on SREF now



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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