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> April 15-16, 2018 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality - OBSERVATIONS
telejunkie
post Apr 13 2018, 11:26 AM
Post #21




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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Apr 13 2018, 08:57 AM) *
Wpc

[attachment=355447:3332CC45...6FDB0474.gif]

[attachment=355448:94CACDD8...648EA5F0.gif]

why not...high end potential... blink.gif laugh.gif
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--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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kpk33x
post Apr 13 2018, 11:37 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Apr 12 2018, 08:09 PM) *
I resent the implications. I am not "snow centric", I am now officially a snow HATER. Got it! I want NO precipitation of ANY kind for the next two months, preferably with very warm temps(as long as I have the tee box), since my current water table is currently about 3 feet above the top of my foundation ohmy.gif
Shoot me a text or call whenever you can so we can start planning some golf tongue.gif


Probably some folks out in the Texas or OK panhandles who would trade with you. There are places there that have had no measurable rainfall since October or November.

But that's how I remember living in PA. You either get 1/3 of the rainfall you need or 3x the amount you want. You either have winters basically without snow or you get three 20" snowstorms in 6 weeks. PA has normal temperatures and normal precipitation amounts, but they are merely averages of extremes and not anything that is ever experienced. At least outside of "its as cold as it normally is in January and its early April"


--------------------
Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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USCG AST
post Apr 13 2018, 06:12 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Apr 13 2018, 08:57 AM) *
Wpc

[attachment=355447:3332CC45...6FDB0474.gif]

[attachment=355448:94CACDD8...648EA5F0.gif]

Serious question... Ice accretion, with the sun angle - is it possible?


--------------------
"We make a living by what we get; we make a life by what we give" -Churchill

"Success is never final. Failure is never fatal. It's courage that counts."
-Disputed

Avatar in honor of my fallen brethren:

Capt Zanetis
Capt O'Keefe
Master Sgt Raguso
Tech Sgt Briggs
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MaineJay
post Apr 13 2018, 06:28 PM
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Not sure USCG, maybe we find out. smile.gif

Looks like a prolonged stretch of unsettled weather in any event.

GYX

QUOTE
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday the forecast scenario gets more tricky. The extensive warm
front remains over the region but to the north, high pressure begins
to build back in pushing colder air southwards into the region.
By mid day Saturday expect most of the area to be under north
to northeast flow with little if any temperature rises through
the day.

The trend in the guidance over the past several run has been to slow
the approaching system (possibly the result of a blocking pattern
built over the prime meridian). Consequently temperatures have been
trended colder which results in greater chance for snow or sleet
across southern New Hampshire and less chance of any sort of
precipitation across central Maine. Freezing rain is a concern
along the south and west border where warm air aloft may be able
to get close enough late in the period to turn things over to
freezing rain for a while. April with no snow cover for the
southern portion of the area means freezing rain will have a
hard time accumulating on all but elevated surfaces
. With the
uncertainty in precipitation type due to marginal temperature
profiles have opted to hold off on any winter weather advisories
for freezing rain for this issuance, but they may be needed
later.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold air continues to surge south on Sunday with the help of
Canadian high pressure. Daytime sun will battle it out with the
April sunshine and warm air advection slowly creeping northward
in association with a secondary low pressure system. This will
keep a wintry mix of snow/sleet along with some freezing rain
over portions of the region
. Southern areas may flip to rain
during the afternoon hours when heating is maximized. Overall
looks like a messy situation. Not expecting icing to be bad, but
there will be some accumulations on trees and wires as well as
elevated walkways.


Frozen/freezing precipitation retreats north and east with time
during the day Monday under the onslaught of warmer air.
However, the damming structure will take a while to erode, and
pockets of freezing rain will hang on over the foothills and
mountains before sufficient warmth arrives. There may be a tight
gradient between the warmest temperatures and the coolest
temperatures during the day. Rain will encompass the rest of the
forecast area, with QPF amounts ranging from around three
quarters of an inch in rain shadowed locations to closer to 2"
in central and southern locations through Monday evening.

Large, multi-lobed low pressure system will rotate overhead
through midweek. The bulk of the PW channel shifts east of the
region on Tuesday, but there will be enough moisture and enough
lift to produce perhaps another half inch areawide. As occluded
surface low pressure shifts away with time, westerly/SW winds
will help to dry things out somewhat at the surface during the
day Wednesday.

Additional precipitation arrives for the Thursday to Friday time
frame. Temperatures during this time will be, needless to say,
below normal for the time period.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MD Blue Ridge
post Apr 13 2018, 08:10 PM
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QUOTE(USCG AST @ Apr 13 2018, 07:12 PM) *
Serious question... Ice accretion, with the sun angle - is it possible?


Yes it absolutely is. Have experienced a mid April ice event. And ice fog a couple of times.
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Removed_Member_rtcemc_*
post Apr 13 2018, 09:00 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Apr 13 2018, 12:37 PM) *
Probably some folks out in the Texas or OK panhandles who would trade with you. There are places there that have had no measurable rainfall since October or November.

But that's how I remember living in PA. You either get 1/3 of the rainfall you need or 3x the amount you want. You either have winters basically without snow or you get three 20" snowstorms in 6 weeks. PA has normal temperatures and normal precipitation amounts, but they are merely averages of extremes and not anything that is ever experienced. At least outside of "its as cold as it normally is in January and its early April"

You are correct for PA. For Tex and Ok, sadly that is El Nino at its finest. Track is just a killer for them. Hopefully, spring will change that - without the severe stuff.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 13 2018, 10:32 PM
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Sleet fest on the 12k nam with some ice mixed in and backend snow..

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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 13 2018, 10:38 PM
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Absolutely possible, worst conditions during the overnight hours..

April 2003 ice storm, Oswego ny..

https://www.flickr.com/photos/dougtone/sets...57606480240605/
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jrlg1181
post Apr 13 2018, 11:48 PM
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Looking at the 0z nam 3km snowmap, it looks exactly like a side view of a human like monster or the Duke blue devil mascot taking a bite out of northern PA and southern NY...... unsure.gif
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MaineJay
post Apr 14 2018, 05:12 AM
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SREFs

P-type PoPs
Attached Image


QPF
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GYX
QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Very challenging and unusual forecast for this time of the year.
A back door cold front will continue to sag southward today
towards the southern New England coastline. Cold air advection
expected today as moisture rides north of the boundary. This
will set up the stage for light rain today. As cold H8
temperatures continue to plunge into Maine and New Hampshire,
the rain will turn to snow over northern sections. There could
be pockets of sleet and freezing rain as well over the higher
terrain.

Surface temperatures will hold relatively steady and may
actually drop off this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Overrunning of the surface front will continue tonight and
Sunday. The precipitation will mainly be light and mainly
focused over northern and western areas as echoes ridge over the
top of an upper level ridge.

As cold air advection continues and nightfall arrives, some of
the rain will change over to sleet, freezing rain and snow
during the overnight hours further to the south. The highest QPF
is expected to be in Southwest New Hampshire where ice will
accumulate up to a tenth of an inch, mainly along unpaved
surfaces.

The mixed precipitation is expected to continue Sunday as a
large polar high over eastern Canada continues to build into our
region. This will prevent our temperatures from climbing much
above the freezing mark as cold air damming ensues. The mini-max
record for Portland is 37 degrees set back in 1979. This very
well may be broken.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light mixed precipitation will continue Sunday night with the best
chance of precip in southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine.
Expect a light mix of sleet and freezing rain but QPF overnight
generally a quarter inch or less so any ice accreation should
only be a tenth or two. As mentioned last night warm
temperatures and high sun angle should have road temperatures
high enough to prevent freezing. Lows overnight will range from
the lower 20s north to the lower 30s south.

Low pressure will slowly swing an occluded front toward the region
on Monday. Strong low and mid level advection of warm air will
have mixed precipitation retreating northward through the day.
Long deep fetch of tropical moistures will be transported
northward resulting in heavy rain over-spreading the region
during the afternoon.
Models have backed off somewhat on QPF but
still showing a broad area of 1 to 2 inches east of the Whites
and will likely see locally higher amounts in upslope areas as
strong southeasterlys kick in across the region
. Highs on Monday
will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s north and mid 40s to
mid 50s south. Melting snow and heavy rain will likely bring
area rivers up to bankfull and a flood watch may have to be
considered later this weekend for portions of the forecast area.

Rain will be heavy at times during Monday evening before shifting
north and east of the forecast area as the occlusion swings in
from the southwest. Looking for diminishing winds and partial
clearing downwind of the mountains.

.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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SnowMan11
post Apr 14 2018, 08:52 AM
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Nothing but rain for the forecast here =(


--------------------
Anthony
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 14 2018, 11:42 AM
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Gfs pretty nasty for wny/wcny..

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konka
post Apr 14 2018, 12:59 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Apr 14 2018, 09:52 AM) *
Nothing but rain for the forecast here =(


Man I love snow too but it's a gorgeous 81 here and I have no desire to hear about it till November haha. Bring on the thunderstorms!
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 14 2018, 02:04 PM
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QUOTE
...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of
around one half of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, and Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely
due to the combination of ice and strong northeast winds.
Travel will be difficult at times, especially tonight and early
Sunday morning when pavement temperatures are coldest
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Solstice
post Apr 14 2018, 02:20 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Apr 12 2018, 09:09 PM) *
I want NO precipitation of ANY kind for the next two months, preferably with very warm temps


Saved in case we enter a drought tongue.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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bingobobbo
post Apr 14 2018, 10:05 PM
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QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Apr 13 2018, 11:38 PM) *
Absolutely possible, worst conditions during the overnight hours..

April 2003 ice storm, Oswego ny..

https://www.flickr.com/photos/dougtone/sets...57606480240605/



I was a student at SUNY-Oswego during the 1980s--I am surprised that I never heard about this storm. It was a strange feeling seeing my alma mater covered with ice like that.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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MaineJay
post Apr 15 2018, 04:50 AM
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26.6°

DP 23.5°

Light freezing drizzle, misty. Slight accretion, looks like some IP fell at the onset.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MaineJay
post Apr 15 2018, 05:14 AM
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This system really covers a few acres.

Band 8
Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


Radar
Attached Image

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php


PWATs
Attached Image


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis...b.php?sector=19

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Apr 15 2018, 05:19 AM


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Apr 15 2018, 05:52 AM
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As is usual during "non winter" months, I've taken the thread straight into OBSX mode.

GFS has, apparently, backed off the heavier rain totals for S and C PA, so at least the low level flooding concerns are mitigated.

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
07Z surface analysis places the strong backdoor cold front
through all of our CWA, except for the southwest counties of
Somerset and Bedford. Nighttime GOES-16 10.3-3.9 um Fog Product
shows the wwd edge of an expansive and relatively warm stratus
deck near or just to the west of the RT 322 corridor and
continuing to push gradually to the west.

Although temps across Mckean. Potter and Tioga counties across
the northern tier of PA have temps currently near or below the
32F mark in some areas, any appreciable showers are moving NNE
across Warren County (where temps are in the mid to upper 30s)
and just brushing western McKean County. The latest HRRR
maintains generally rainfree conditions across this area of
concern and colder temps through 15Z, while the moist and gusty
easterly flow off the Atlantic helps to blossom some drizzle
over the Lower Susq Valley around daybreak, then some rain
showers and drizzle during the late morning and afternoon hours
across the Central Mtns and Susquehanna Valley as the nose of an
anomalous, southerly LLJ advances north across the Blue Ridge
Mountains of VA and Shenandoah Valley, and the 925 mb easterly
flow increase from around 1 sigma to 3 sigma this afternoon and
evening across Central and Eastern PA.

Penn DOT road temps still running well above freezing early
today despite air temps in the low to mid 30s. Therefore, (and
as noted by the previous Sat evening shift) we`re not
anticipating the need for a winter wx advisory for the patchy
light freezing drizzle prior to daybreak and any light freezing
rain during the daylight hours of mid April, where it may be
limited to a very light glazing of trees and similarly colder,
elevated objects.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
The highest impact weather for the forecast period will occur
beginning later Sunday afternoon across the western third of
the state and during the evening/nighttime hours over Central
and Eastern PA and continuing into Monday morning.

Operations models, hi res CAMS and Ensemble Forecast Systems
are in quite good agreement in ejecting a potent upper low
through the eastern Great Lakes early in the upcoming week. The
associated, and increasingly negative tilt upper shortwave
trough and surface front are progged to swing through the CWA
tonight and early Monday.

The 14/18Z GEFS shows a 4-5 sigma (50-60kt) SSE low level jet
surging through the area tonight. The deep moisture is forecast
to originate over the southern Gulf of Mexico/western Caribbean
resulting in PWATs surging to between 1-1.5 inches, or some 2-4
std dev above normal.

The GEFS has backed off on the upper end amounts of rainfall
and now advertises just several small areas in southern PA where
there is a 50-70 percent chc for rainfall totals of GE 2
inches in a 24 hour period.

This trend twd lower precip amounts (focused within a 6-9 hr
period) lessens the chc for QPF exceeding FFG (which ranges from
2.25 to 3.25 inches across the Central Mtns and Susq Valley).

If the trend reverses back to higher rainfall totals of 2-3
inches in the mid to late morning model runs, the issuance of
Flood Watches will become a distinct possibility.


Temps will warm up just enough this morning to diminish the
threat for icy precip, however the recent late spring warmth
will be a memory, as the back door front stays banked up against
the Laurels and remains south of the Mason/Dixon line.

Much of the CWA will stay mainly overcast and damp today with
patchy drizzle. The patchy drizzle will likely give way to an
increasing area of showers this afternoon, followed by a
steadier/heavier rain beginning this evening, as a
potent/highly anomalous southerly low level jet and plume of
higher PWATS advects north into Central PA ahead of approaching
upper low, overrunning the dome of cool/stable air in place over
central PA.

The extent and persistent of overcast skies all day, and
upstream temperatures north of front, will keep max temperatures
a good 10-12F lower than the NBM, which has great difficulty in
capturing the shallow cool airmass east of such backdoor
fronts. Highs today could be an amazing 40 degrees cooler than
Saturday, ranging from the low and mid 40s over most of the
area, to perhaps near 60F over southwest Somerset County, on
the west/downslope side of Laurel Ridge.

One last concern is that as the nose of the southerly and
highly anomalous LLJ intersects the easterly LLJ late today
and the first half of tonight, it helps to greatly enhance the
channeling of the easterly wind invof KIPT (along with some
other narrow east-west oriented Valleys). Increased winds to
sustained 20-25 mph with gusts of 35-40 kts in the KIPT area
(quite an unusual direction for strong winds and borderline Wind
Advisory criteria).


&&
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Undertakerson
post Apr 15 2018, 05:54 AM
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3K NAM, however, keeps the threat a possibility, but with less areal coverage than some recent modeling.

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